Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2023 17:12:30 GMT
1995 redux?
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 16, 2023 17:24:34 GMT
Harold Wilson lost 3 by elections in late March 1968 yet survived as PM. Prior to that 2 seats had been lost in early November 1967 - and another 2 in September. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 16, 2023 17:47:07 GMT
Harold Wilson lost 3 by elections in late March 1968 yet survived as PM. Prior to that 2 seats had been lost in early November 1967 - and another 2 in September. I know you are stating quite rightly some real psephological facts, but Rishi Sunak should not even be in the same sentence as Harold Wilson, and the same goes for Winston Churchill and Boris Johnson. |
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Post by willpower3 on Jul 16, 2023 17:49:56 GMT
Others will know more about this, but Wilson seemingly did face a potential challenge around 1968, but the Labour backbenchers leading it couldn't muster enough support for it to be credible.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 16, 2023 17:59:05 GMT
Others will know more about this, but Wilson seemingly did face a potential challenge around 1968, but the Labour backbenchers leading it couldn't muster enough support for it to be credible. Maybe that's what Dorries is waiting for, and if she's the one leading the challenge then it would almost immediately lose credibility. Patel, Braverman and Mogg could be the next most likely ones (but even Mogg did put out statements saying Sunak should be supported and there shouldn't be a change of leader) but again are pretty discredited. I don't know the list of pro-Truss, yet vaguely credible backbenchers - probably a dwindling number - that could muster enough support. On the frontbencher, Mordaunt or Badenoch seem less discredited than their other cabinet colleagues and still seem quite popular (for some reason), albeit with very different people. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 16, 2023 18:07:33 GMT
Others will know more about this, but Wilson seemingly did face a potential challenge around 1968, but the Labour backbenchers leading it couldn't muster enough support for it to be credible. If you mean a leadership challenge from within the party, then not really. Challenging a leader in those days was well nigh impossible and while there was undoubtedly huge discontent, there was no real focus for it. As others have pointed out even losing many, many by elections didn't make it any more likely.
There was of course the conspiracy instigate by Cecil King of IPC who had seemingly lost his marbles, trying to inveigle Lord Mountbatten to support some sort of coup. That lasted about twenty five minutes.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 16, 2023 18:08:23 GMT
Count Binface closing on the Tories for second place in the poll.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2023 18:51:51 GMT
Gosh, that’s quite a big percentage. Which wards are they concentrated in? Just wondering if differential turnout was evident in the 2022 locals. Uxbridge and Colham & Cowley mostly - previously the old Brunel and Uxbridge South wards Those wards are where the Green vote exceeds some Tory majorities. Without the Greens, Hillingdon might have been a lot closer in 2022. It's easy to see Labour winning three more seats without them, and a 27-26 Tory council. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 16, 2023 19:10:49 GMT
Others will know more about this, but Wilson seemingly did face a potential challenge around 1968, but the Labour backbenchers leading it couldn't muster enough support for it to be credible. Maybe that's what Dorries is waiting for, and if she's the one leading the challenge then it would almost immediately lose credibility. Patel, Braverman and Mogg could be the next most likely ones (but even Mogg did put out statements saying Sunak should be supported and there shouldn't be a change of leader) but again are pretty discredited. I don't know the list of pro-Truss, yet vaguely credible backbenchers - probably a dwindling number - that could muster enough support. On the frontbencher, Mordaunt or Badenoch seem less discredited than their other cabinet colleagues and still seem quite popular (for some reason), albeit with very different people. A sign of how far gone the Tory membership is these days, is that they voted for Truss because she was seen to be the pro-Brexit candidate, despite playing a fairly active role in the Remain campaign. Someone of no fixed political views can’t (or shouldn’t) be Prime Minister. Rishi might be a really clever bloke but as a politician he’s hopeless. If you asked him if it was going to rain today he’d mention halving inflation, cutting debt and stopping boats. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 16, 2023 19:12:34 GMT
Clear defeat seems so inevitable now who would even want to take over the leadership? For anyone ambitious it would be better off for them to try and lead a fresh start from opposition
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 16, 2023 19:16:23 GMT
A sign of how far gone the Tory membership is these days, is that they voted for Truss because she was seen to be the pro-Brexit candidate, despite playing a fairly active role in the Remain campaign.
/That/ was the reason I voted for Truss?!?!?
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 16, 2023 19:25:51 GMT
Clear defeat seems so inevitable now who would even want to take over the leadership? For anyone ambitious it would be better off for them to try and lead a fresh start from opposition Obviously anybody who wants to be PM and achieve something, and who has time on their side, should do as you suggest but being PM for a year will still appeal to many. It is still a place a history, a chance to reward ones friends with knighthoods and peerages, boost allies to a front bench role and massively increase your post politics earning potential. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 16, 2023 19:39:53 GMT
A sign of how far gone the Tory membership is these days, is that they voted for Truss because she was seen to be the pro-Brexit candidate, despite playing a fairly active role in the Remain campaign.
/That/ was the reason I voted for Truss?!?!?
Hah. She’s as thick as mince. Unbelievably vacuous. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 16, 2023 19:50:45 GMT
Clear defeat seems so inevitable now who would even want to take over the leadership? For anyone ambitious it would be better off for them to try and lead a fresh start from opposition Obviously anybody who wants to be PM and achieve something, and who has time on their side, should do as you suggest but being PM for a year will still appeal to many. It is still a place a history, a chance to reward ones friends with knighthoods and peerages, boost allies to a front bench role and massively increase your post politics earning potential. A bit like Liz Truss, you mean? |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 16, 2023 20:32:04 GMT
Obviously anybody who wants to be PM and achieve something, and who has time on their side, should do as you suggest but being PM for a year will still appeal to many. It is still a place a history, a chance to reward ones friends with knighthoods and peerages, boost allies to a front bench role and massively increase your post politics earning potential. A bit like Liz Truss, you mean? Well I was thinking of someone who would have the good sense to keep their head down and not do anything controversial. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 16, 2023 20:39:34 GMT
Others will know more about this, but Wilson seemingly did face a potential challenge around 1968, but the Labour backbenchers leading it couldn't muster enough support for it to be credible. If you mean a leadership challenge from within the party, then not really. Challenging a leader in those days was well nigh impossible and while there was undoubtedly huge discontent, there was no real focus for it. As others have pointed out even losing many, many by elections didn't make it any more likely.
There was of course the conspiracy instigate by Cecil King of IPC who had seemingly lost his marbles, trying to inveigle Lord Mountbatten to support some sort of coup. That lasted about twenty five minutes.
Quite correct. Wilson did face the possibility of a challenge a year later in Spring 1969 at the time of the In Place of Strife battle. He came out with the quip -' I know what is going on.... I am going on!' |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 16, 2023 20:45:09 GMT
Clear defeat seems so inevitable now who would even want to take over the leadership? For anyone ambitious it would be better off for them to try and lead a fresh start from opposition Obviously anybody who wants to be PM and achieve something, and who has time on their side, should do as you suggest but being PM for a year will still appeal to many. It is still a place a history, a chance to reward ones friends with knighthoods and peerages, boost allies to a front bench role and massively increase your post politics earning potential. That is all fair points but it seems to me that the British system has generally been more restrained than that. As the most recent examples nobody credible ended up challenging John Major or Gordon Brown when inevitable defeat was on the horizon |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 16, 2023 21:40:20 GMT
Obviously anybody who wants to be PM and achieve something, and who has time on their side, should do as you suggest but being PM for a year will still appeal to many. It is still a place a history, a chance to reward ones friends with knighthoods and peerages, boost allies to a front bench role and massively increase your post politics earning potential. That is all fair points but it seems to me that the British system has generally been more restrained than that. As the most recent examples nobody credible ended up challenging John Major or Gordon Brown when inevitable defeat was on the horizon There was supposed to be the David Miliband challenge to Brown which collapsed hours before it was supposed to launch (was it in on a Euro Election results night or have I remembered wrongly?). |
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iang
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Post by iang on Jul 16, 2023 22:39:48 GMT
Isn't something similar the case with Wilson? There wasn't kne alternative candidate with credibility across the party as a whole. Maybe also relevant that there were a lot more by-elections then, so maybe it wasn't quite as big a blow as it might seem if the Tories do lose all three next week
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 16, 2023 22:57:59 GMT
Isn't something similar the case with Wilson? There wasn't kne alternative candidate with credibility across the party as a whole. Maybe also relevant that there were a lot more by-elections then, so maybe it wasn't quite as big a blow as it might seem if the Tories do lose all three next week
And to what extent did by-election 'machines' exist in those days? How bothered were parties about winning specific contests?
I wasn't alive, and without wall-to-wall coverage, there's not a lot to go on, but I suspect it wasn't as it is now. And when contests were triggered by a sitting candidate's death, I'd imagine the politicians of the day may have had a bit of a 'go softly out of respect' attitude, rather than going all out on the campaign trail as early as possible.
I know the cliche is that Dr. David Owen gave rise to this phenomenon, but is that entirely true?
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