More In Common

[andrewp]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 41% (-3)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDM: 13% (+3)
RFM: 7% (=)
GRN: 5% (-2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @moreincommon_, 15-17 Nov.
Changes w/ 28 Oct - 2 Nov.

[The Bishop]

Labour lead back up to 16 points (44-28 I think) which seems around the recent norm for this pollster.

[andrewp]

LAB: 41% (-3)
CON: 29% (+1)
LDM: 12% (+2)
RFM: 8% (=)
GRN: 6% (+1)

Via @moreincommon_, 1-4 Dec.
Changes w/ 24-27 Nov.

[andrewp]

I’m not sure we’ve noted the recent questions that More in Common have asked on Covid restrictions

29% of people polled want nightclubs to be closed
20% of people think that pubs and restaurants should be closed
20% of people want people only to be allowed out for exercise and essential shopping.

www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/31kfnjxi/mic-covid-restrictions-polling.xlsx

[london(ex)tory]

Dec 14, 2023 18:23:27 GMT andrewp said:

I’m not sure we’ve noted the recent questions that More in Common have asked on Covid restrictions

29% of people polled want nightclubs to be closed
20% of people think that pubs and restaurants should be closed
20% of people want people only to be allowed out for exercise and essential shopping.

www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/31kfnjxi/mic-covid-restrictions-polling.xlsx

That’s fine, that 20% can shut themselves away and leave the rest of us to get on with life.

[andrewp]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 42% (+1)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDM: 11% (-1)
RFM: 8% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @moreincommon_, 12-14 Dec.
Changes w/ 30 Nov - 4 Dec.

[andrewp]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 42% (=)
CON: 27% (-1)
LDM: 10% (-1)
RFM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 8% (+2)
SNP: 3% (-1)

Via @moreincommon_, 9-11 Jan.
Changes w/ 12-14 Dec.

[hullenedge]

[batman]

More In Common is an ironic name for a group so many of whose polls are outliers

[carlton43]

Feb 13, 2024 7:52:12 GMT batman said:

More In Common is an ironic name for a group so many of whose polls are outliers

Possibly but we may find that Rochdale is the watershed and we now start to see the Labour lead trickle downward to the finish in another ocean from expectations thus far?

[nodealbrexiteer]

Feb 13, 2024 11:00:12 GMT carlton43 said:

Feb 13, 2024 7:52:12 GMT batman said:

More In Common is an ironic name for a group so many of whose polls are outliers

Possibly but we may find that Rochdale is the watershed and we now start to see the Labour lead trickle downward to the finish in another ocean from expectations thus far?

As long as enough holds to eject the govt!

[carlton43]

Feb 13, 2024 11:37:46 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Feb 13, 2024 11:00:12 GMT carlton43 said:

Possibly but we may find that Rochdale is the watershed and we now start to see the Labour lead trickle downward to the finish in another ocean from expectations thus far?

As long as enough holds to eject the govt!

Yes.  I only comment.  It is not a desire.  A Conservative hold on a very small majority at the GE would be a nightmare result.  We would be back to the dread May Administration where nothing was done and little attempted, but with a shell-shocked remnant exhausted and unfit.  It is essential to have a Starmer Administration with a working majority.  I hope it is not too large or it could have a suck in of utter dross MPs and a too triumphal approach.  Look what happened to the Conservatives with that! 

The plates are shifting under our feet as we type.  Brexit, Covid, botched Zero Carbon, Ukraine, Gaza, SNP implode and now Rochdale showing the vulnerable and nasty Muslim underbelly to Labour ..... These make for an insecurity that may go in any direction.  We are in a sucked-breath turmoil of uncertainty and indecision.  The herd may circle in sullen contempt, or it may make a breakout at speed that is quite outside our present comprehension.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Feb 13, 2024 11:51:42 GMT carlton43 said:

Feb 13, 2024 11:37:46 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

As long as enough holds to eject the govt!

Yes.  I only comment.  It is not a desire.  A Conservative hold on a very small majority at the GE would be a nightmare result.  We would be back to the dread May Administration where nothing was done and little attempted, but with a shell-shocked remnant exhausted and unfit.  It is essential to have a Starmer Administration with a working majority.  I hope it is not too large or it could have a suck in of utter dross MPs and a too triumphal approach.  Look what happened to the Conservatives with that! 

The plates are shifting under our feet as we type.  Brexit, Covid, botched Zero Carbon, Ukraine, Gaza, SNP implode and now Rochdale showing the vulnerable and nasty Muslim underbelly to Labour ..... These make for an insecurity that may go in any direction.  We are in a sucked-breath turmoil of uncertainty and indecision.  The herd may cicle in sullen contempt, or it may make a breakout at speed that is quite outside our present comprehension.

Or shades of 1992! Though looking back the 1992 reelected government seemed to be clearer in it's direction having followed on directly from the Thatcher period, it just got bogged down in lots of rubbish and then some! I can't see a large Labour majority given the gains needed, I'm still leaning to a minority government prediction(for now). A lot of new problems as you've list there.

[The Bishop]

I mean, many politically engaged types are utterly desperate to see Rochdale as this major turning point (see Jon Craig's literally totally insane piece this morning)

In the real world, most people are barely aware of it - and even fewer actually care. S*** happens.

[jamie]

Feb 13, 2024 12:11:52 GMT The Bishop said:

I mean, many politically engaged types are utterly desperate to see Rochdale as this major turning point (see Jon Craig's literally totally insane piece this morning)

In the real world, most people are barely aware of it - and even fewer actually care. S*** happens.

And insofar as it could have had a long-term impact, it would be if Labour kept their candidate and allowed themselves to be branded by the Tories/media as still tolerant of anti-semitism. As we’ve seen over the past few months, Starmer’s hardline approach doesn’t seem to have done Labour’s polling any harm. If anything, it’s probably done Labour some good in the long term to get rid of quite a few single issue obsessives.  

[maxque]

Feb 13, 2024 19:38:48 GMT jamie said:

Feb 13, 2024 12:11:52 GMT The Bishop said:

I mean, many politically engaged types are utterly desperate to see Rochdale as this major turning point (see Jon Craig's literally totally insane piece this morning)

In the real world, most people are barely aware of it - and even fewer actually care. S*** happens.

And insofar as it could have had a long-term impact, it would be if Labour kept their candidate and allowed themselves to be branded by the Tories/media as still tolerant of anti-semitism. As we’ve seen over the past few months, Starmer’s hardline approach doesn’t seem to have done Labour’s polling any harm. If anything, it’s probably done Labour some good in the long term to get rid of quite a few single issue obsessives.  

Too bad it's now swamped with the single-issue obsessives of the other persuation.

[mattbewilson]

Feb 13, 2024 19:38:48 GMT jamie said:

Feb 13, 2024 12:11:52 GMT The Bishop said:

I mean, many politically engaged types are utterly desperate to see Rochdale as this major turning point (see Jon Craig's literally totally insane piece this morning)

In the real world, most people are barely aware of it - and even fewer actually care. S*** happens.

And insofar as it could have had a long-term impact, it would be if Labour kept their candidate and allowed themselves to be branded by the Tories/media as still tolerant of anti-semitism. As we’ve seen over the past few months, Starmer’s hardline approach doesn’t seem to have done Labour’s polling any harm. If anything, it’s probably done Labour some good in the long term to get rid of quite a few single issue obsessives.  

I am reminded of the Peterborough by election where Lisa Forbes wasn't disowned in that instance which was probably instrumental in Labour holding that seat but clearly not indicative of the result that December.

This might mean defeat for labour on the 29th but the results on Thursday may be more important to the GE than the 29th

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]