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Post by hullenedge on Nov 12, 2024 8:21:38 GMT
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edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Nov 12, 2024 9:05:48 GMT
I wonder if the next GE will be the first (corrections welcome?) one won on sub 30% of the vote. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 12, 2024 9:51:52 GMT
I wonder if the next GE will be the first (corrections welcome?) one won on sub 30% of the vote. It is possible but also Duverger's could kick in. The 2026 locals (around here) will concentrate minds. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Nov 12, 2024 13:51:15 GMT
How soon will we see polls recording Labour in third place?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 12, 2024 15:56:48 GMT
You may have to wait a while, if the improvement in Starmer's personal ratings (confirmed in this poll despite the headline figure) is maintained.
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Post by batman on Nov 12, 2024 16:38:40 GMT
and last week's by-elections (and those the week before too) didn't exactly herald a brave new dawn for the Tories either.
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Post by johnloony on Nov 12, 2024 17:11:40 GMT
How soon will we see polls recording Labour in third place? Labour will be third in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election. |
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Post by batman on Nov 12, 2024 17:48:10 GMT
that's quite bold when we don't know whether there will be one, let alone when it will be.
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 12, 2024 17:51:33 GMT
Of course the Conservative Party should feel encouraged about being in the lead, considering that Labour were ahead by double digits just four months ago. And we should say so, just as the usual dampeners are thrown on it. William Hague and IDS would have given their proverbial right arms to recover at this rate.
I’m under no illusions though - there’s still a long way to go. I’m also doubtful anyone would “win” with a vote share of sub 30 percent. We’d likely be in hung parliament territory, with electoral reform back on the agenda.
There’s a real possibility that Farage is the biggest obstacle to bringing down the Labour government in 2029; the question is to what extent Kemi Badenoch will be able to neutralise the Reform threat until then. I suspect, unfortunately, that too much damage has already been done, but it will become clearer.
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graham
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Post by graham on Nov 12, 2024 19:23:43 GMT
Of course the Conservative Party should feel encouraged about being in the lead, considering that Labour were ahead by double digits just four months ago. And we should say so, just as the usual dampeners are thrown on it. William Hague and IDS would have given their proverbial right arms to recover at this rate. I’m under no illusions though - there’s still a long way to go. I’m also doubtful anyone would “win” with a vote share of sub 30 percent. We’d likely be in hung parliament territory, with electoral reform back on the agenda. There’s a real possibility that Farage is the biggest obstacle to bringing down the Labour government in 2029; the question is to what extent Kemi Badenoch will be able to neutralise the Reform threat until then. I suspect, unfortunately, that too much damage has already been done, but it will become clearer. I strongly suspect that most of the further increase in the Reform vote since the GE comes from former Labour voters who would be unlikely to consider voting Tory. If so, Reform is currently helping the Tories! |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 15, 2024 19:15:43 GMT
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Post by redtony on Nov 15, 2024 22:07:10 GMT
i remember 1979 Tory's were 1 point behind labour
3 months after they won the general election
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 15, 2024 23:52:35 GMT
How soon will we see polls recording Labour in third place? Prediction for 1 year today - Con 28% Reform 24% Lab 23% Lib Dem 13% Green 7% Oth 5% This will probably be about the nadir of Labour's popularity as the economic "medicine" kicks in. If the economy starts to turn round before the next election, this is easily recoverable. If it dosent, they are in trouble. |
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Post by aargauer on Nov 16, 2024 13:25:10 GMT
How soon will we see polls recording Labour in third place? Prediction for 1 year today - Con 28% Reform 24% Lab 23% Lib Dem 13% Green 7% Oth 5% This will probably be about the nadir of Labour's popularity as the economic "medicine" kicks in. If the economy starts to turn round before the next election, this is easily recoverable. If it dosent, they are in trouble. What economic medicine? |
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hengog
Conservative
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Post by hengog on Nov 16, 2024 13:37:17 GMT
Prediction for 1 year today - Con 28% Reform 24% Lab 23% Lib Dem 13% Green 7% Oth 5% This will probably be about the nadir of Labour's popularity as the economic "medicine" kicks in. If the economy starts to turn round before the next election, this is easily recoverable. If it dosent, they are in trouble. What economic medicine? It’s a plan of such cunning that it would take a Baldrick to explain it. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Nov 16, 2024 15:33:41 GMT
How soon will we see polls recording Labour in third place? Prediction for 1 year today - Con 28% Reform 24% Lab 23% Lib Dem 13% Green 7% Oth 5% This will probably be about the nadir of Labour's popularity as the economic "medicine" kicks in. If the economy starts to turn round before the next election, this is easily recoverable. If it dosent, they are in trouble. Also will be interesting to see if opposition to Labour from the left rises- combined Con+Rfm vote must have a ceiling, but the Greens in particular probably have room to grow at Labour's expense. |
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Post by swanarcadian on Nov 21, 2024 18:31:38 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 23, 2024 0:01:31 GMT
"Poll suggests Home Secretary Yvette Cooper would lose her seat to Reform.
Projected outcome: 🟪 REF 35% (+6) 🟥 LAB 34% (-14) 🟦 CON 20% (+5) 🟩 GRN 6% (+2) 🟧 LD 4% (+1)"
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1gx9v0v/new_poll_suggests_home_secretary_yvette_cooper/
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Post by observer on Nov 23, 2024 0:08:54 GMT
"Poll suggests Home Secretary Yvette Cooper would lose her seat to Reform. Projected outcome: 🟪 REF 35% (+6) 🟥 LAB 34% (-14) 🟦 CON 20% (+5) 🟩 GRN 6% (+2) 🟧 LD 4% (+1)" https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1gx9v0v/new_poll_suggests_home_secretary_yvette_cooper/ That would be richly deserved after encouraging the jailing of dissidents to support her political cause |
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Post by batman on Nov 23, 2024 8:21:33 GMT
To describe violent criminals and those who incite violence as dissidents is an atrocious insult to the brave people who peacefully protested against Communist and Fascist oppression and landed up in jail, or were killed. They are criminals.
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