|
|
Post by Merseymike on Oct 13, 2024 22:12:57 GMT
This is rather silly. Starmer has a huge majority with nearly 5 years ahead. There’s no likelihood of an election in Sunderland South. I appreciate that fantasy politics is fun for some, but honestly…. Yes, it is very premature. However, Phillipson is a truly hateful member of the government in the eye of almost anyone that identifies as on the right. It will be hugely tempting for the Tories and Reform to have an informal pact in this seat. I would put my money on her losing her seat for this reason. She is a mainstream Labour MP. "Truly hateful"? Why? She's hardly a wild-eyed left winger. Born in Gateshead, lived in Washington. |
|
|
|
Post by kitesurfer on Oct 13, 2024 22:25:41 GMT
Yes, it is very premature. However, Phillipson is a truly hateful member of the government in the eye of almost anyone that identifies as on the right. It will be hugely tempting for the Tories and Reform to have an informal pact in this seat. I would put my money on her losing her seat for this reason. She is a mainstream Labour MP. "Truly hateful"? Why? She's hardly a wild-eyed left winger. Born in Gateshead, lived in Washington. The opinions she expressed about private education have really struck a nerve with people on the right. She has really shown that the policy is all about spite. The policy is hard left and wholly odds with the ideology of almost anyone that identifies with the right. Just look at how much coverage it gets in The Telegraph. There was an article last week about how she is the nastiest member of the government. |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Oct 13, 2024 22:32:19 GMT
She's actually quite a nice person, very approachable. But I have seen these targeted campaigns before. Anyone who listened to the for the many podcast will know how Iain Dale confesses to have been wrong in his opinion of her in government and regrets how hard he was on her even if he still opposed her politics.
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,058
Member is Online
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 13, 2024 22:40:15 GMT
People in Houghton-le-Spring talk of nothing but their fury at the idea of private schools being taxed. Some absolute grade A rubbish even by the standards of this forum today it seems.
|
|
|
|
Post by kitesurfer on Oct 13, 2024 22:45:04 GMT
People in Houghton-le-Spring talk of nothing but their fury at the idea of private schools being taxed. Some absolute grade A rubbish even by the standards of this forum today it seems. You miss the point. The leaders of the Conservative Party and Reform do care about private education. They are the ones that will decide whether to have an informal pact and whether to devote resources to a decapitation strategy. It is a fact that her majority is not that big even with the right wing vote being split. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,834 
|
Post by john07 on Oct 14, 2024 1:50:07 GMT
People in Houghton-le-Spring talk of nothing but their fury at the idea of private schools being taxed. Some absolute grade A rubbish even by the standards of this forum today it seems. You miss the point. The leaders of the Conservative Party and Reform do care about private education. They are the ones that will decide whether to have an informal pact and whether to devote resources to a decapitation strategy. It is a fact that her majority is not that big even with the right wing vote being split. Dream on. You are obviously living in 'cloud cuckoo' land if you think that you can aggregate the votes for competing parties to produce a win. |
|
|
|
Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 14, 2024 4:32:24 GMT
She is a mainstream Labour MP. "Truly hateful"? Why? She's hardly a wild-eyed left winger. Born in Gateshead, lived in Washington. The opinions she expressed about private education have really struck a nerve with people on the right. She has really shown that the policy is all about spite. The policy is hard left and wholly odds with the ideology of almost anyone that identifies with the right. Just look at how much coverage it gets in The Telegraph. There was an article last week about how she is the nastiest member of the government. The Telegraph has been on a one-track journey into irrelevance for months. I think it's in shock, still, that the country isn't the right wing paradise it wants it to be (and Jenykns on HIGNFY in disbelief that the audience wasn't pro-Boris isn't unrelated here). The "article" about Bridget Phillipson was a commentary article underneath something hilariously stupid about her using a private school's sports field. It's not just bottom of the barrel, it's the microscopic fragments of woodlice shit underneath the barrel. Yesterday the Telegraph had a 750-word whine about VAT on fees ending the UK's 1000 year history of church choirs: it almost read like a Chris Morris parody. In the current climate, trying to make out that people who need food banks or multiple jobs to get by are feeling any kind of sympathy for parents who can afford to send their children to private school is laughable. |
|
|
|
Post by noorderling on Oct 14, 2024 5:06:21 GMT
That does not stop Labour MPs reacting by tabling a VNOC. Although it would not constitutionally forece Starmer out , he would be highly unlikely to carry on if he lost the confidence of his MPs. The crucial question is really what they think about this in Carshalton. Obviously |
|
Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 70
|
Post by Raddy on Oct 14, 2024 7:03:34 GMT
The opinions she expressed about private education have really struck a nerve with people on the right. She has really shown that the policy is all about spite. The policy is hard left and wholly odds with the ideology of almost anyone that identifies with the right. Just look at how much coverage it gets in The Telegraph. There was an article last week about how she is the nastiest member of the government. The Telegraph has been on a one-track journey into irrelevance for months. I think it's in shock, still, that the country isn't the right wing paradise it wants it to be (and Jenykns on HIGNFY in disbelief that the audience wasn't pro-Boris isn't unrelated here). The "article" about Bridget Phillipson was a commentary article underneath something hilariously stupid about her using a private school's sports field. It's not just bottom of the barrel, it's the microscopic fragments of woodlice shit underneath the barrel. Yesterday the Telegraph had a 750-word whine about VAT on fees ending the UK's 1000 year history of church choirs: it almost read like a Chris Morris parody. In the current climate, trying to make out that people who need food banks or multiple jobs to get by are feeling any kind of sympathy for parents who can afford to send their children to private school is laughable. Oh golly food banks into the equation,the usually ignored poor and huddled masses, always good for a vacuous political point There are 14 independent schools in the 23 constituencies of the Tyne Valley, County Durham and the Tees Valley providing 6650 places or around 290 places per constituency, although they will clearly not be spread equally. As most children are likely to be in two parent families to afford the fees, that equates to potentially 580 pissed off voters per constituency. Stockton on Tees alone has 3 independent schools providing 1830 places. Anecdotally a friend of mine who is an auto electrician and his wife a basic classroom teacher put both their children through independent school by the sweat of their brow, not their inherited wealth, and still did not resort to food banks At a guess I would not expect the North East to be particularly high in the numbers of independent schools, but it is certainly high enough to change election results on its own |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Oct 14, 2024 7:27:41 GMT
The Telegraph has been on a one-track journey into irrelevance for months. I think it's in shock, still, that the country isn't the right wing paradise it wants it to be (and Jenykns on HIGNFY in disbelief that the audience wasn't pro-Boris isn't unrelated here). The "article" about Bridget Phillipson was a commentary article underneath something hilariously stupid about her using a private school's sports field. It's not just bottom of the barrel, it's the microscopic fragments of woodlice shit underneath the barrel. Yesterday the Telegraph had a 750-word whine about VAT on fees ending the UK's 1000 year history of church choirs: it almost read like a Chris Morris parody. In the current climate, trying to make out that people who need food banks or multiple jobs to get by are feeling any kind of sympathy for parents who can afford to send their children to private school is laughable. Oh golly food banks into the equation,the usually ignored poor and huddled masses, always good for a vacuous political point There are 14 independent schools in the 23 constituencies of the Tyne Valley, County Durham and the Tees Valley providing 6650 places or around 290 places per constituency, although they will clearly not be spread equally. As most children are likely to be in two parent families to afford the fees, that equates to potentially 580 pissed off voters per constituency. Stockton on Tees alone has 3 independent schools providing 1830 places. Anecdotally a friend of mine who is an auto electrician and his wife a basic classroom teacher put both their children through independent school by the sweat of their brow, not their inherited wealth, and still did not resort to food banks At a guess I would not expect the North East to be particularly high in the numbers of independent schools, but it is certainly high enough to change election results on its own This is a fairly fruitless debate. Your data, while interesting, tells us little. I’d hazard a guess that many, probably most of the affected voters weren’t Labour voters - most would presumably have been aware of the very well-publicised proposals? So their ability to swing an election on this issue is surely very limited. Ths fact is that we had an election in July. The results delivered a huge Labour majority using the electoral system most on this forum (but not me) seem to favour. Its supposed strength is that it delivers single party governments with clear majorities and that the removal of that government is simple for voters to achieve. They’ve just done it. We now have 4 to 5 years of the new government. Speculation about what might happen in one minister’s constituency is a bit silly but I wouldn’t want to stop people if that’s their entertainment. As to the argument about VAT and private schools I’ve never felt very strongly. Some of them are major enterprises with a range of activities and it’s hard to defend their tax treatment. Others are tiny (and often faith based) and this is likely to be a terminal blow. Quality is very varied and the boarding model of some has drawn some child protection issues as abusers find opportunities. Lumping them all into a group is misleading. Although all are affected some may well be able to mitigate the impact on their enterprise. This isn’t going to close Eton for example. |
|
|
|
Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 14, 2024 7:31:34 GMT
The Telegraph has been on a one-track journey into irrelevance for months. I think it's in shock, still, that the country isn't the right wing paradise it wants it to be (and Jenykns on HIGNFY in disbelief that the audience wasn't pro-Boris isn't unrelated here). The "article" about Bridget Phillipson was a commentary article underneath something hilariously stupid about her using a private school's sports field. It's not just bottom of the barrel, it's the microscopic fragments of woodlice shit underneath the barrel. Yesterday the Telegraph had a 750-word whine about VAT on fees ending the UK's 1000 year history of church choirs: it almost read like a Chris Morris parody. In the current climate, trying to make out that people who need food banks or multiple jobs to get by are feeling any kind of sympathy for parents who can afford to send their children to private school is laughable. Oh golly food banks into the equation,the usually ignored poor and huddled masses, always good for a vacuous political point There are 14 independent schools in the 23 constituencies of the Tyne Valley, County Durham and the Tees Valley providing 6650 places or around 290 places per constituency, although they will clearly not be spread equally. As most children are likely to be in two parent families to afford the fees, that equates to potentially 580 pissed off voters per constituency. Stockton on Tees alone has 3 independent schools providing 1830 places. Anecdotally a friend of mine who is an auto electrician and his wife a basic classroom teacher put both their children through independent school by the sweat of their brow, not their inherited wealth, and still did not resort to food banks At a guess I would not expect the North East to be particularly high in the numbers of independent schools, but it is certainly high enough to change election results on its own The plural of anecdote isn't data, as we all know, but believe me, trying to extrapolate hundreds of parents into thousands of voters is a non starter. UK politics goes through these cycles every so often - maybe tuition fees is the only time in recent memory where results coincided with actions. Elections in five years time will not be lost on whether or not children are at expensive schools. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 14, 2024 8:53:19 GMT
That is the lowest combined polling share for Conservative and Labour since records began. Not even remotely close to it. June 9–10 2019, Yougov: BXP 26%, LD 22%, LAB 19%, CON 17%, GRN 8% Not only that (there were *several* surveys putting the "big two" under 50% around that time) there was a poll showing a lower Lab/Con score than this *just a few days ago*. |
|
Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 70
|
Post by Raddy on Oct 14, 2024 9:28:50 GMT
Oh golly food banks into the equation,the usually ignored poor and huddled masses, always good for a vacuous political point There are 14 independent schools in the 23 constituencies of the Tyne Valley, County Durham and the Tees Valley providing 6650 places or around 290 places per constituency, although they will clearly not be spread equally. As most children are likely to be in two parent families to afford the fees, that equates to potentially 580 pissed off voters per constituency. Stockton on Tees alone has 3 independent schools providing 1830 places. Anecdotally a friend of mine who is an auto electrician and his wife a basic classroom teacher put both their children through independent school by the sweat of their brow, not their inherited wealth, and still did not resort to food banks At a guess I would not expect the North East to be particularly high in the numbers of independent schools, but it is certainly high enough to change election results on its own The plural of anecdote isn't data, as we all know, but believe me, trying to extrapolate hundreds of parents into thousands of voters is a non starter. UK politics goes through these cycles every so often - maybe tuition fees is the only time in recent memory where results coincided with actions. Elections in five years time will not be lost on whether or not children are at expensive schools. I'm not trying to extrapolate anything, just pushing back against the food bank, they all live on lard sandwiches and have holes in their trouser arses narratives. Here's a thought, Stockton West voted Conservative at the GE, despite the consensus on here that they would probably lose it. I suggested on here that it was natural Conservative territory. Yet none of the experts on here linked the fact that Stockton has 3 independent schools with nearly 2000 children attending them, granted they may not all come from the town but a lot of them do. Labour telegraphing the VAT increase I'm sure went down like a lead balloon with those parents. You need to get upto speed on the reality of places like the North East,where properties in former Category D ex pit villages in the west of County Durham can now make upto 500k. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 14, 2024 11:45:50 GMT
Oh golly food banks into the equation,the usually ignored poor and huddled masses, always good for a vacuous political point There are 14 independent schools in the 23 constituencies of the Tyne Valley, County Durham and the Tees Valley providing 6650 places or around 290 places per constituency, although they will clearly not be spread equally. As most children are likely to be in two parent families to afford the fees, that equates to potentially 580 pissed off voters per constituency. Stockton on Tees alone has 3 independent schools providing 1830 places. Anecdotally a friend of mine who is an auto electrician and his wife a basic classroom teacher put both their children through independent school by the sweat of their brow, not their inherited wealth, and still did not resort to food banks At a guess I would not expect the North East to be particularly high in the numbers of independent schools, but it is certainly high enough to change election results on its own The plural of anecdote isn't data, as we all know, but believe me, trying to extrapolate hundreds of parents into thousands of voters is a non starter. UK politics goes through these cycles every so often - maybe tuition fees is the only time in recent memory where results coincided with actions. Elections in five years time will not be lost on whether or not children are at expensive schools. But it might be. All those people who spent a lot of money on a house in the right place to get their kid into the posh state school won't be too pleased by the incoming larger class sizes... |
|
|
|
Post by kitesurfer on Oct 14, 2024 12:02:32 GMT
You miss the point. The leaders of the Conservative Party and Reform do care about private education. They are the ones that will decide whether to have an informal pact and whether to devote resources to a decapitation strategy. It is a fact that her majority is not that big even with the right wing vote being split. Dream on. You are obviously living in 'cloud cuckoo' land if you think that you can aggregate the votes for competing parties to produce a win. I think you will find that the Lib Dems and Labour did exactly that this year. If people want Labour out, I think you can expect people to vote tactically in seats like this. |
|
hengog
Conservative
Posts: 1,451
|
Post by hengog on Oct 14, 2024 12:59:08 GMT
I’m not particularly interested in the private school VAT issue. I’m very interested in standards in the schools most children attend , and my dislike of Phillipson is based on my perception that she isn’t. Or rather, for she would obviously deny that, that she is more interested in things which will, despite such denials , affect them adversely.
|
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Oct 14, 2024 18:50:49 GMT
She is a mainstream Labour MP. "Truly hateful"? Why? She's hardly a wild-eyed left winger. Born in Gateshead, lived in Washington. The opinions she expressed about private education have really struck a nerve with people on the right. She has really shown that the policy is all about spite. The policy is hard left and wholly odds with the ideology of almost anyone that identifies with the right. Just look at how much coverage it gets in The Telegraph. There was an article last week about how she is the nastiest member of the government. Not many people who live in her seat send their kids privately. This is more working class than the other two Sunderland seats, and that's saying something. I do see this damaging Labour and a very poor use of political capital, but the damage won't be here. Although I do think the Sunderland seats and especially this one are absolutely capable of doing a Stoke on Trent, and that a 7000 majority with a huge Labour majority in the commons isn't that comfortable. Do Labour even need this seat for a majority? I suspect barely. It's very homogeneous and when it swings it'll swing quite big. |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Oct 15, 2024 14:21:52 GMT
If Labour has a lower retention rate amongst its older 2024 voters this will impact more upon local elections especially by-elections because they are the voters more likely to turnout.
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 3, 2024 13:07:54 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Nov 3, 2024 13:15:50 GMT
Interesting. Given their track record one might perhaps have expected this pollster to give the Tories a small lead. Now we wait to see how the public reacts to new opposition leader Badenoch.
|
|
