swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,712
Member is Online
|
Post by swanarcadian on Oct 13, 2024 10:47:28 GMT
I’m sure we’ll see some more polls with Labour ahead in the near future, but this does bring their 934 day leading streak to an end.
We seem to have sort of adopted the Austrian model right now - two right of centre parties and one left of centre party slogging it out for first place, all with less than 30 percent support. We just don’t have their voting system - as mentioned above Reform would still only get about a couple of dozen seats with FPTP on these figures.
|
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 51,152 
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Oct 13, 2024 11:37:56 GMT
I’m sure we’ll see some more polls with Labour ahead in the near future, but this does bring their 934 day leading streak to an end. We seem to have sort of adopted the Austrian model right now - two right of centre parties and one left of centre party slugging it out for first place, all with less than 30 percent support. We just don’t have their voting system - as mentioned above Reform would still only get about a couple of dozen seats with FPTP on these figures. But Reform are still gaining traction and even another 2-points would dramatically affect their seat total. Now they are in a triumvirate and still gaining share, they will become more attractive to the more cautious right wing voters who will note that now there is tending to be very broad support for that party. The paid-up party membership is growing fast. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Oct 13, 2024 12:28:52 GMT
Voting intention. Fieldwork 9-10 Oct LAB 27% (-2) CON 27% (-1) REF UK 21% (+2) LIB DEM 13% (+2) GRN 7% (-) SNP 2% (-) That is the lowest combined polling share for Conservative and Labour since records began. |
|
swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
Posts: 2,712
Member is Online
|
Post by swanarcadian on Oct 13, 2024 12:47:58 GMT
Voting intention. Fieldwork 9-10 Oct LAB 27% (-2) CON 27% (-1) REF UK 21% (+2) LIB DEM 13% (+2) GRN 7% (-) SNP 2% (-) That is the lowest combined polling share for Conservative and Labour since records began. Gallup in December 1981 was from memory SDP/Lib All 50.5, Lab 23.5, Con 23. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 13, 2024 13:32:33 GMT
The Lib Dems are way too opportunistic for that. They'll turn on Labour. They aren't stupid - they know that Labour are going to be fundamentally against the interests of the monied home county vote which is basically where they operate. Stuff like private school VAT they simply have to be against. 64 Lib Dem MPs voted with the Tories on VAT on private school fees - none voted against. votes.parliament.uk/Votes/Commons/Division/1842They're no mugs. Esher & Walton, Winchester, Bath, Edinburgh West...they know who the voters are. |
|
|
|
Post by observer on Oct 13, 2024 14:19:14 GMT
Could people have changed their minds about how they voted?
There needs to be a second vote. A People's Vote.
It's obvious that people didn't know what they were voting for.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2024 14:36:52 GMT
Luke Akehurst on track to lose. Reform should definitely target North Durham.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2024 15:40:05 GMT
Another one - I've missed constituency projections.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
|
Post by iain on Oct 13, 2024 15:51:08 GMT
That isn't constituency polling, as I am sure you are aware.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2024 16:18:19 GMT
That isn't constituency polling, as I am sure you are aware. You are right - they are projections. Constituency polling would be good, however. |
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,739
|
Post by Jack on Oct 13, 2024 17:20:01 GMT
Are these Electoral Calculus predictions?
Because we all know how accurate and reliable they are.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2024 17:21:52 GMT
Are these Electoral Calculus predictions? Because we all know how accurate and reliable they are. It’s a projection using UNS based on a CON 27 LAB 27 RFM 21 poll. The damn is starting to burst with FPTP based on this poll. Reform would win 23 seats off Labour. Not Electoral Calculus, which is just that, a calculation. |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,065
|
Post by nyx on Oct 13, 2024 17:40:41 GMT
Voting intention. Fieldwork 9-10 Oct LAB 27% (-2) CON 27% (-1) REF UK 21% (+2) LIB DEM 13% (+2) GRN 7% (-) SNP 2% (-) That is the lowest combined polling share for Conservative and Labour since records began. Not even remotely close to it. June 9–10 2019, Yougov: BXP 26%, LD 22%, LAB 19%, CON 17%, GRN 8% |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
|
Post by graham on Oct 13, 2024 19:43:00 GMT
If polls have Labour in 3rd place next Autumn, will the PLP begin to panic with talk of a No Confidence vote in Starmer?
|
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Oct 13, 2024 20:13:58 GMT
If polls have Labour in 3rd place next Autumn, will the PLP begin to panic with talk of a No Confidence vote in Starmer? no, Starmer wouldn't be the first labour leader to be in 3rd place. Leaders have had terrible polling and rightly or wrongly they go on |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
|
Post by graham on Oct 13, 2024 20:18:08 GMT
If polls have Labour in 3rd place next Autumn, will the PLP begin to panic with talk of a No Confidence vote in Starmer? no, Starmer wouldn't be the first labour leader to be in 3rd place. Leaders have had terrible polling and rightly or wrongly they go on That does not stop Labour MPs reacting by tabling a VNOC. Although it would not constitutionally forece Starmer out , he would be highly unlikely to carry on if he lost the confidence of his MPs. |
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Oct 13, 2024 20:28:29 GMT
no, Starmer wouldn't be the first labour leader to be in 3rd place. Leaders have had terrible polling and rightly or wrongly they go on That does not stop Labour MPs reacting by tabling a VNOC. Although it would not constitutionally forece Starmer out , he would be highly unlikely to carry on if he lost the confidence of his MPs. even if there was a world where the PLP would be minded to do so this is probably the most leadership friendly PLP ever. |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Oct 13, 2024 20:29:46 GMT
This is rather silly. Starmer has a huge majority with nearly 5 years ahead. There’s no likelihood of an election in Sunderland South. I appreciate that fantasy politics is fun for some, but honestly….
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Oct 13, 2024 20:58:00 GMT
no, Starmer wouldn't be the first labour leader to be in 3rd place. Leaders have had terrible polling and rightly or wrongly they go on That does not stop Labour MPs reacting by tabling a VNOC. Although it would not constitutionally forece Starmer out , he would be highly unlikely to carry on if he lost the confidence of his MPs. The crucial question is really what they think about this in Carshalton. |
|
|
|
Post by kitesurfer on Oct 13, 2024 21:59:19 GMT
This is rather silly. Starmer has a huge majority with nearly 5 years ahead. There’s no likelihood of an election in Sunderland South. I appreciate that fantasy politics is fun for some, but honestly…. Yes, it is very premature. However, Phillipson is a truly hateful member of the government in the eye of almost anyone that identifies as on the right. The powers that be in both Tories and Reform thoroughly despise VAT on private schools and they will want revenge. It will therefore be hugely tempting for the Tories and Reform to have an informal pact in this seat. I would put my money on her losing her seat for this reason. The seat has become quite marginal while she has been the local MP and she was on the wrong side of the Brexit divide there. I don’t think she has much of a personal vote. |
|
