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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 2, 2023 10:36:42 GMT
Indeed, seems like a decent result for the Tories to be honest. I read Pete's comment the opposite way if anything, the Tories not improving on their showing last year (notably poor in this council, as well as not great across London more generally) with a well known candidate was rather underwhelming, and made to look better by LibDems/Greens taking previous Labour votes. looking at prediction competition, most people thought the Tory vote would collapse much like people did in 2022 tbf when Shaun Bailey ran Khan closer than expected. I think the floor in the Tory vote is higher than people expect in London |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 2, 2023 10:45:52 GMT
Indeed, seems like a decent result for the Tories to be honest. I read Pete's comment the opposite way if anything, the Tories not improving on their showing last year (notably poor in this council, as well as not great across London more generally) with a well known candidate was rather underwhelming, and made to look better by LibDems/Greens taking previous Labour votes. Yes I mean it wasn't a poor result especially but you wouldn't expect the vote to drop dramatically compared with 2022 as some have suggeted |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 2, 2023 10:56:15 GMT
I read Pete's comment the opposite way if anything, the Tories not improving on their showing last year (notably poor in this council, as well as not great across London more generally) with a well known candidate was rather underwhelming, and made to look better by LibDems/Greens taking previous Labour votes. looking at prediction competition, most people thought the Tory vote would collapse much like people did in 2022 tbf when Shaun Bailey ran Khan closer than expected. I think the floor in the Tory vote is higher than people expect in London Bailey did as well as he did partly because he was almost universally thought to have no chance. Let's see how the Tories do next year if people actually think they might win. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 2, 2023 11:16:37 GMT
How did the 2022 boundary changes affect this ward’s politics when compared to the old Swiss Cottage?
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322 
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Post by wallington on Jun 2, 2023 11:33:24 GMT
Gale Labour 882 Russell Green 295 Stillwell Lib Dem 531 Williams Conservative 766 really solid Conservative vote in London, maybe unnexpected given the national picture, I assumed they thought they had a chance as they had a few MPs helping out. I imagine the candidate helped, he topped the poll for the Tories in the ward last year (despute the alphabet!) and a former Councillor. |
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Post by batman on Jun 2, 2023 11:37:19 GMT
there has been some evidence that the swing to Labour nationally is higher in the so-called Red Wall, and in some previously traditionally strong Tory areas, than in London & other areas (mostly other major cities) where Labour is already at or close to a historic high. This is why arguably Boris Johnson could end up being harder to beat in his constituency than, for example, Brendan Clarke-Smith in his despite the latter on paper having a much higher majority. Johnson's constituency will of course be flooded by Labour Party workers, indeed on some days it already is.
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Post by batman on Jun 2, 2023 11:38:32 GMT
(although of course Labour is very far away indeed from being at a historic high in the Uxbridge area, so perhaps that isn't the greatest example)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 2, 2023 11:41:10 GMT
How did the 2022 boundary changes affect this ward’s politics when compared to the old Swiss Cottage? Hard to say but I'd guess the area moved into Primrose Hill would be pretty good for the Tories. they were actually closer to winning that ward in 2022 than South Hampstead, and the area coming in from Camden Town with Primrose Hill contains a lot of social housing, so you'd think the 'Swiss Cottage' bit would be better than the rump South Hampstead |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on Jun 2, 2023 14:16:31 GMT
There's a ridiculous 20 mph speed limit on part of the Finchley Road here which must piss some people off (it does me). Not sure if thats the local council responsibility though That's a TfL idea. |
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Post by olympian95 on Jun 3, 2023 9:00:42 GMT
Gale Labour 882 Russell Green 295 Stillwell Lib Dem 531 Williams Conservative 766 really solid Conservative vote in London, maybe unnexpected given the national picture, I assumed they thought they had a chance as they had a few MPs helping out. I imagine the candidate helped, he topped the poll for the Tories in the ward last year (despute the alphabet!) and a former Councillor. Think the Blues had to work v hard in this ward just to stand still. Be interesting to see if the O2 planning issue is still hurting labour in a year or two. |
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Post by batman on Jun 3, 2023 9:32:17 GMT
they were certainly working hard & we saw quite a fair-sized team of them knocking up on polling day.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 3, 2023 11:04:31 GMT
GWBWI
If last week's was dull, then this is dullerer.
Lab +13
LDm +8
Con +1
Grn +0
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Jun 3, 2023 15:39:08 GMT
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Post by batman on Jun 3, 2023 16:28:13 GMT
At least it is an improvement on the Tories' performance in the Hampstead Town by-election.
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