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Post by jamesdoyle on May 18, 2023 6:38:19 GMT
GWBWI
Grn +50
LDm +8
Lab -17
Con -70
ASV
Grn +0.8
LDm +0.0
Lab -0.3
Con -1.2
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Post by andrewp on May 18, 2023 7:16:53 GMT
Green 45.9%
Con 32.1%
LD 15%
Lab 7.1%
Changes from 2021
Green +11.9%
Con -10.3%
Lab -16.5%
LD new
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on May 18, 2023 7:29:31 GMT
This is one of Labour's weakest wards in the entire district. Kingswood and Severn may be naturally weaker but they don't have a competitive Green Party so it's easier for Labour. I suspect a lot of the Labour votes in 2021 were spare Green votes rather than actual Labour votes. Just to expand on that last sentence, in 2021 there were three Tory candidates, two Green and one Labour, so I would expect that there were a lot of Green/Green/Lab ballots, and I would also expect that a lot of people who cast those ballots voted Green yesterday. So I think the percentage changes make this result look worse than it really is for Labour. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on May 18, 2023 7:54:46 GMT
Indeed.One wonders whether the Tories might have just hung on in a straight Con/Green fight? It sounds as though on postal votes it was just about even between the two, which might be a good indicator of how a straight fight might have gone? I doubt that the Tories would have hung on - even if you added all the LD votes to the Tories (which isn't at all likely) they're only just ahead of the Greens and I a straight fight there would then be the Labour vote which would need to go one way or the other... I do wonder whether it might have been a bit closer without the Lib Dems though. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 18, 2023 8:11:10 GMT
Indeed.One wonders whether the Tories might have just hung on in a straight Con/Green fight? It sounds as though on postal votes it was just about even between the two, which might be a good indicator of how a straight fight might have gone? I doubt that the Tories would have hung on - even if you added all the LD votes to the Tories (which isn't at all likely) they're only just ahead of the Greens and I a straight fight there would then be the Labour vote which would need to go one way or the other... I do wonder whether it might have been a bit closer without the Lib Dems though. One might never know of course, but I suspect a lot of people who voted Labour in these circumstances would have been non-voters in the straight fight scenario? Given that I believe the local Tory candidate was well known and personally well liked I suspect that people who preferred LD to Green in these conditions might well have reverted to Tory in the absence of a vigorous Lib Dem campaign. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2023 9:26:46 GMT
Decent result, I'll take that. I do wonder if the Lib Dems may have hit the Conservative vote a bit more than the Green vote? I don't know what our local correspondents think? A lot of LDs in areas like this have been voting Green for a long time so it's not impossible. Although equally it may mean that natural LDs in the area relished the chance to vote for their own party for once, and that many would have happily carried on voting Green if there hadn't been a LD candidate. My guess would be that there wasn't a lot in it either way to be honest |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 18, 2023 10:25:50 GMT
I doubt that the Tories would have hung on - even if you added all the LD votes to the Tories (which isn't at all likely) they're only just ahead of the Greens and I a straight fight there would then be the Labour vote which would need to go one way or the other... I do wonder whether it might have been a bit closer without the Lib Dems though. One might never know of course, but I suspect a lot of people who voted Labour in these circumstances would have been non-voters in the straight fight scenario? Given that I believe the local Tory candidate was well known and personally well liked I suspect that people who preferred LD to Green in these conditions might well have reverted to Tory in the absence of a vigorous Lib Dem campaign. Alternatively the Tories fielding a strong candidate might have meant they had gone some way towards maximising their potential vote already, given the drag the party nationally was always going to be on them? Of course as has already been said we will never know, but it is always fun to hypothesise  |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 18, 2023 16:25:09 GMT
Indeed.One wonders whether the Tories might have just hung on in a straight Con/Green fight? It sounds as though on postal votes it was just about even between the two, which might be a good indicator of how a straight fight might have gone? Bear in mind, that 50:50 figure was our estimate from verification, which was very fast for the PVs; don't put too much weight on it. But anyway, my understanding is that the Tory vote is usually up about 10 points in the PVs compared to on the day, whereas the Green vote is generally concentrated on polling day. So, in so far as it means anything, I think the PV result good for the Green party and an indicator of low morale in the Tory base and the extent to which Greens squeezed both LD and Lab vote shares. I think Labour did relatively well to prevent a complete collapse in an unfavourable ward. As noted by others, last time out was a straight Tory v The Rest battle in which Labour clearly dragged down The Rest a bit, but did better than this time out. IMO the Green vote share both now and in 2021 has a much smaller core than the total, and the same goes for Labour at parliamentary level. In this District there's a large moderate left/centre vote share looking for the best option to coalesce around. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2023 17:27:11 GMT
Indeed.One wonders whether the Tories might have just hung on in a straight Con/Green fight? It sounds as though on postal votes it was just about even between the two, which might be a good indicator of how a straight fight might have gone? Bear in mind, that 50:50 figure was our estimate from verification, which was very fast for the PVs; don't put too much weight on it. But anyway, my understanding is that the Tory vote is usually up about 10 points in the PVs compared to on the day, whereas the Green vote is generally concentrated on polling day. So, in so far as it means anything, I think the PV result good for the Green party and an indicator of low morale in the Tory base and the extent to which Greens squeezed both LD and Lab vote shares. I think Labour did relatively well to prevent a complete collapse in an unfavourable ward. As noted by others, last time out was a straight Tory v The Rest battle in which Labour clearly dragged down The Rest a bit, but did better than this time out. IMO the Green vote share both now and in 2021 has a much smaller core than the total, and the same goes for Labour at parliamentary level. In this District there's a large moderate left/centre vote share looking for the best option to coalesce around. And of course the Greens in Stroud are still relatively left-wing Greens rather than disgruntled NIMBY Tories |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 18, 2023 22:33:55 GMT
Former leader Doina Cornell was elected chair at the AGM tonight. Not sure who's been elected leader and deputy, but I would imagine Catherine Braun (Green, W-u-E) remains leader
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 23, 2023 10:20:00 GMT
Has the Scilly Isles result been declared?
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Post by batman on May 23, 2023 13:05:13 GMT
Yes see another thread in this section
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Post by andrewp on May 23, 2023 13:51:44 GMT
I did post on another thread but will put it here as well so it’s easier to find in future
Isles of Scilly St Mary’s
John Peacock 301
Tim Jones 144
Turnout 35%
John Peacock lives on St Agnes, another of the islands. Tim Jones lives on St Mary’s. So on paper you might have thought Jones was favourite. But Peacock was born and bred on the Islands, Jones wasn’t - and that’s an almost un overcomeable advantage in Scilly elections. Even people who have lived on the Islands for eg 30 years have failed to overcome that.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 23, 2023 14:07:00 GMT
I wonder if it is the famous Tim Jones from another place
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Post by batman on May 23, 2023 14:20:29 GMT
don't think he's a Scillonian
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 23, 2023 15:12:34 GMT
don't think he's a Scillonian Indeed not, but then this Tim Jones evidently isn't. It's possible he's moved there since his UKPR days. He would probably go around telling everyone what a dump Hugh Town is.. |
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Post by batman on May 23, 2023 16:21:28 GMT
undoubtedly, although he wouldn't really be right about that.
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