Where have the Lib Dems serially underperformed the most?

[peterl]

Let's complete the trilogy.

To start off with, both West and North Dorset. In West: 1,400 votes off winning in 2001, 2,400 short in 2005 but never a victory. In North, 2,200 votes away from winning in 2005 but the last Liberal victory was 1945.

[greatkingrat]

Brighton should be fertile territory for the Lib Dems if the Greens hadn't got entrenched there.

[Khunanup]

Almost everywhere.

[matureleft]

As I mentioned on the Labour parallel thread there have been numerous examples of the Lib Dems or their predecessor parties building extremely strong positions in local government with no yield at parliamentary level and eventual collapse. Adur and Worthing are a couple of examples that come to mind.

[greenhert]

Wiltshire, particularly Salisbury. They would have won Salisbury in 1997 had they selected a more local and appropriate candidate.

Also, due to tactical voting, affluent conurbations like Warwick & Leamington.

[michaelarden]

Wandsworth, Putney, Fulham - educated, middle class London outside of a couple of boroughs. York, Lancaster, Exeter, Canterbury, Norwich, Durham - small university cities compared to Bath, Oxford, Cambridge or Cheltenham.

[iain]

Impossible question really. As Khunanup says, the answer is almost everywhere, but the wider point would be: which iteration of the Lib Dems? The party has remained relatively consistent in its ideology, but emphasis has been less consistent, and in recent elections in particular our support has been so issue driven that our support base has completely flipped. The old Liberal base was found in peripheral areas (Highlands, Cornwall, rural Wales / the Marches, mill towns), but the Lib Dem vote now is overwhelmingly found in ‘core’ areas (wealthy areas of London and the Home Counties, spa towns, well off suburbs).

[The Bishop]

Feb 2, 2023 22:17:31 GMT Khunanup said:

Almost everywhere.

Yes and no. Underperformed in most of the country, but given the actual thread title still more in some places than others.

[Deleted]

Regionally it’s the Midlands isn’t it? In terms of long-term lack of success in winning seats.

But if we look just at how things are today, and compare with historical performance, perhaps Wales might be considered the area of ‘greatest underperformance’ over the past few years, relative to potential.

[Sandy]

Merionith? Once one of the few Liberal areas when they were nearing complete wipeout, now their support has evaporated.

[stb12]

I’d think there’s a few places in Glasgow/West of Scotland area where they could have done better, talking about before the SNP surge became so great and the post-coalition collapse.

[bjornhattan]

Feb 3, 2023 14:06:28 GMT stb12 said:

I’d think there’s a few places in Glasgow/West of Scotland area where they could have done better, talking about before the SNP surge became so great and the post-coalition collapse.

East Renfrewshire springs to mind. Almost no demographic differences between it and East Dunbartonshire on the other side of Glasgow - and yet stark differences in Lib Dem support.

[timrollpickering]

Feb 3, 2023 14:04:51 GMT Sandy said:

Merionith? Once one of the few Liberal areas when they were nearing complete wipeout, now their support has evaporated.

In fact Wales as a whole has seen very little Liberal revival compared to England and Scotland. As late as 1951 an outright majority of the parliamentary Liberal Party sat for Welsh seats. Since 1957 only four Welsh constituencies have ever elected Liberals/Lib Dems.

[stb12]

Feb 3, 2023 16:09:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

Feb 3, 2023 14:06:28 GMT stb12 said:

I’d think there’s a few places in Glasgow/West of Scotland area where they could have done better, talking about before the SNP surge became so great and the post-coalition collapse.

East Renfrewshire springs to mind. Almost no demographic differences between it and East Dunbartonshire on the other side of Glasgow - and yet stark differences in Lib Dem support.

Even in the Scottish parliament elections pre-2011 I think they only had enough list votes to have about one MSP each in the regions covering those areas so it’s certainly always been a weakness for them in Scotland compared to when they have historically had strength in the Highlands, Edinburgh and the Borders

[Sibboleth]

Plaid Cymru as an electoral force is very much part of the old Welsh Liberal tradition, even if that's not where the intellectual roots of the party lie or, really, where most of its activists can be found. Always an interesting tension there.

[owainsutton]

I'm going to pitch in my home borough & constituency as a possibility. Sorry to any Trafford LD acquaintances reading this!

Pre-2010, while major northern councils such as Liverpool and Sheffield were gained and with a third of the seats over the board in Manchester, in Trafford they peaked at (I think) just five. They've had a protracted struggle even to get the complete trio in even one ward since the coalition-era collapse. All this despite a demographic that would fit (lots of ABC1, Remain-voting - necessary to note that they did win the popular vote across Trafford in EU2019). Nor did they manage to substantially capitalise on what's been a precipitous Conservative collapse from 2018 onwards.

This follows through to their failure to turn confidence about the demography of the constituency into a general election vote share for Altrincham & Sale West. They got into second place in 2010, but still on just half of Graham Brady's vote share, and the huge "Your next prime minister" national-spend paid-delivery campaign in GE2019 nudged them upwards only to 11%.

[jakegb]

Urban big city centre seats - typically with a high number of students, BME voters, low income families.
Even in 2010 (before the tuition fees debacle), the Lib Dems failed to take many seats off Labour - and let's not forget this was a very bad election for Labour.
Bradford East and Norwich South being notable exceptions.
I feel the Lib Dems should have done a lot better - given many big cities' fierce opposition to the Tories.
Fast forward to the 2019 general election - and many of the closer fights (e.g. Sheffield Central) have reverted to safe Labour seats, with the Tories in a distant second.

[owainsutton]

Feb 3, 2023 19:22:29 GMT jakegb said:

Urban big city centre seats - typically with a high number of students, BME voters, low income families.
Even in 2010 (before the tuition fees debacle), the Lib Dems failed to take many seats off Labour - and let's not forget this was a very bad election for Labour.
Bradford East and Norwich South being notable exceptions.
I feel the Lib Dems should have done a lot better - given many big cities' fierce opposition to the Tories.
Fast forward to the 2019 general election - and many of the closer fights (e.g. Sheffield Central) have reverted to safe Labour seats, with the Tories in a distant second.

Worth revisiting the myths about who had a wonderful or terrible vote share:

36% Conservative
29% Labour
23% Lib Dem

That's not a "very bad" outcome for Labour, nor is it a terrible one for Lib Dem prospects.

Then they went into coalition thanks to agreeing a referendum on a non-PR system. 🤦‍♂️

[jakegb]

Feb 3, 2023 19:28:05 GMT owainsutton said:

Feb 3, 2023 19:22:29 GMT jakegb said:

Urban big city centre seats - typically with a high number of students, BME voters, low income families.
Even in 2010 (before the tuition fees debacle), the Lib Dems failed to take many seats off Labour - and let's not forget this was a very bad election for Labour.
Bradford East and Norwich South being notable exceptions.
I feel the Lib Dems should have done a lot better - given many big cities' fierce opposition to the Tories.
Fast forward to the 2019 general election - and many of the closer fights (e.g. Sheffield Central) have reverted to safe Labour seats, with the Tories in a distant second.

Worth revisiting the myths about who had a wonderful or terrible vote share:

36% Conservative
29% Labour
23% Lib Dem





That's not a "very bad" outcome for Labour, nor is it a terrible one for Lib Dem prospects.

Then they went into coalition thanks to agreeing a referendum on a non-PR system. 🤦‍♂️

I'd argue 2010 was a very bad outcome for Labour - judged on the share of the vote (even the Tories broke 30% in 1997). 

Fortunately for Labour, the anti-Labour vote was split between the Tories and Lib Dems, allowing Labour to hold on to many seats. This was particularly the case in big metropolitan areas. 

[heslingtonian]

In terms of performance in Parliamentary seats, especially where they have a local base:

Salisbury
Chichester
Bournemouth West
Dorset West - despite repeated efforts
Dorset North
Totnes- not won it despite Wollaston joining them
Woking
Mole Valley
Chelmsford
Tunbridge Wells
Maidenhead- except 2001
Wokingham
York Outer
Newcastle North
Worcestershire West
Stratford upon Avon
Wantage
Henley
Saffron Walden