West Lancashire - 9th February 2023

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the West Lancashire by election.
9th February 2022

The 6 candidates as a reminder are:
Jo Barton (Lib Dem)
Peter Cranie (Green)
Ruth Ashley Dalton (Lab)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Jonathan Kay (Reform UK)
Mike Prendergast (Con)

Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 6 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 6.6 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6.6 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 9th February 2023.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.

Have Fun.
DHAA

[johnloony]

Lab 64.6
Con 18.1
LD 6.8
Grn 5.1
RefUK 4.9
OMRLP 0.5

[batman]

Lab 64.3
C 17.6
LD 6.9
Green 5.5
RefUK 5.1
OMRLP 0.6

[Tony Otim]

Feb 6, 2023 16:44:07 GMT batman said:

Lab 64.3
C 17.6
LD 6.9
Green 5.5
RefUK 5.1
OMRLP 0.6

This prediction got me wondering what was the last by-election where 5 candidates saved their deposit. Slightly surprisingly (at least to my leaky memory) the answer was Sleaford & North Hykeham in 2016.

[peterl]

Lab 69.4
Con 12.9
LD 6.4
Grn 5.4
RefUK 5.2
OMRLP 0.7

[YL]

Lab 67.4
Con 19.1
Lib Dem 4.6
Reform UK 4.0
Green 3.9
OMRLP 1.0

[sirbenjamin]

Jo Barton (Lib Dem) 7.5
Peter Cranie (Green) 5.6
Ruth Ashley Dalton (Lab) 58.7
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 1.2
Jonathan Kay (Reform UK) 3.4
Mike Prendergast (Con) 23.6

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jo Barton (Lib Dem)	3.8
Peter Cranie (Green)	2.2
Ruth Ashley Dalton (Lab)	59.7
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)	0.6
Jonathan Kay (Reform UK)	3.7
Mike Prendergast (Con)	30

[kevinf]

Lab 65, LD 10, Con 11, Green 8, Reform 5, Omrlp 1

[markgoodair]

Lab 59.1
Con 24.4
Lib Dem 9.8
Green 3.9
Reform 2.6
OMRLP 0.2

[manchesterman]

LAB 66.6
CON 16.6
LD 5.9
GREEN 5.5
REF UK 4.9
OMRLP 0.5

[yellowperil]

Con 18.1
Lab 63.9
LD 6.1
GP 4.9
RUK 6.5
OMRL 0.5

[Tony Otim]

Lab 62.5
Con 19.8
LD 7.6
RefUK 5.6
Grn 3.7
OMRLP 0.8

[jamesmanc22]

Labour 64.3%
Conservative 24.6%
Lib Dem 4.4%
Green 3.4%
Reform 2.9%
OMRLP 0.4%

Labour Party Hold

[Pete Whitehead]

Lab	67.6%
Con	21.0%
Ref	4.3%
LD	3.9%
Grn	2.7%
OMRLP	0.5%

[haribo]

Lab 62.2
Con 23.0
Lib 5.7
Ref 5.0
Grn 3.7
MRLP 0.4

[carlton43]

LAB 55.8
CON 26.8
REF 7.9
GREEN 4.8
LD 3.9
OMRL 0.8

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Competition now closed.

15 entries accepted.

15 out of 15 predict a Labour win over Conservatives ranging from by 29.00% by carlton43 to by 56.50% by peterl a range of 27.50%

Range

Jo Barton (Lib Dem) 3.80% by DHAA to 10.00% by kevinf a range of 6.20%
Peter Cranie (Green) 2.20% by DHAA to 8.00% by kevinf a range of 5.80%
Ruth Ashley Dalton (Lab) 55.80% by carlton43 to 69.40% by peterl a range of 13.60%
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP) 0.20% by markgoodair to 1.20% by sirbenjamin a range of 1.00%
Jonathan Kay (Reform UK) 2.60% by markgoodair to 7.90% by carlton43 a range of 5.30%
Mike Prendergast (Con) 11.00% by kevinf to 30.00% by DHAA a range of 19.00%

Result will be posted in the morning.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Fortunately we didn't have to abandon this competition as fixed as I only made the rostrom in third place.

Congratulations to jamesmanc22 on the win and to haribo for a close second place

Full result

jamesmanc22 - 5.6
haribo - 6
DHAA - 9.2
Pete Whitehead - 10.6
Tony Otim - 11.4
sirbenjamin - 11.8
YL - 13.4
markgoodair - 13.4
carlton43 - 13.6
John Loony - 14.4
yellowperil - 15.4
batman - 16.2
manchesterman - 18.4
peterl - 25.4
kevinf - 28.8

No penalties issued.

Thank you to all for taking part.

DHAA

[The Bishop]

I make it four correct predictions that all candidates save the main two would lose their deposit.