By-elections after the 2nd May 2013

[J.G.Harston]

Oct 4, 2013 22:24:50 GMT middleenglander said:

Scarborough BC, Eastfield - Lib Dem resigned around 3rd October

21st November (should be on the SBC website by morning)

[peterl]

Bournemouth BC Winton East Ward November 14th following the departure of Annina Davis, reported by the local paper in February as being "missing". Not known if this is a resignation of DQ under the 6 month rule.

Result in 2011 Con 709/669/624 Labour 537/481/467 LD 441/394 Green 377 Liberal 268 Ind 221/219/180/167

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Oct 7, 2013 22:47:25 GMT peterl said:

Bournemouth BC Winton East Ward November 14th following the departure of Annina Davis, reported by the local paper in February as being "missing". Not known if this is a resignation of DQ under the 6 month rule.

I checked and she attended a meeting on 18 June (http://www.bournemouth.gov.uk/CouncilDemocracy/Councillors/CouncillorCommitteeMeeting/Council/2013/06/18/Minutes/Full-Council-Minutes---18-June-2013.pdf) so it couldn't have been a six month disqualification.

[finsobruce]

Oct 7, 2013 17:11:14 GMT libertykipper said:

Oct 7, 2013 15:43:54 GMT ColinJ said:

Harrow on the Hill to take place on 7 November. In the Harrow thread I speculated that both the Labour and Conservative parties might prefer to try and leave the seat vacant, but this was always an unlikely scenario with only two electors needed to call it.

Thanks. Both LibLabCon factions expect Ukip to do well next year because the local elections will be held on the same day as the Euro elections. So both factions want a LibLabCon in the seat this year so they can benefit from the incumbent factor.

Six month's incumbency barely counts as incumbency at all.......

[andrewteale]

Oct 7, 2013 22:47:25 GMT peterl said:

Bournemouth BC Winton East Ward November 14th following the departure of Annina Davis, reported by the local paper in February as being "missing". Not known if this is a resignation of DQ under the 6 month rule.

Result in 2011 Con 709/669/624 Labour 537/481/467 LD 441/394 Green 377 Liberal 268 Ind 221/219/180/167

It can't be a disqualification - Anniina Davie was present at the full council meeting on 18th June.

www.bournemouth.gov.uk/CouncilDemocracy/Councillors/CouncillorCommitteeMeeting/Council/2013/06/18/Minutes/Full-Council-Minutes---18-June-2013.pdf

EDIT: Snap!

[finsobruce]

Oct 7, 2013 22:47:25 GMT peterl said:

Bournemouth BC Winton East Ward November 14th following the departure of Annina Davis, reported by the local paper in February as being "missing". Not known if this is a resignation of DQ under the 6 month rule.

Result in 2011 Con 709/669/624 Labour 537/481/467 LD 441/394 Green 377 Liberal 268 Ind 221/219/180/167

Possible Labour gain in Bournemouth? What's the history of the ward? I looked on the council website, but although they helpfully listed every election that had been held locally since 1973 they didn't seem to have any but the most recent results.

[peterl]

2007: Con 983/933/802 LD 550/538/511 Lab 225/204 Ind 188/149

However, since that the Lib Dem vote in the town has collapsed, and in the more working class areas of Winton and Boscombe the Labour vote has been increasing.

I'd certainly count this as the best shot of a Labour gain in Bournemouth outside their stronghold of Kinson for some years.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Oct 7, 2013 23:15:02 GMT finsobruce said:

Oct 7, 2013 22:47:25 GMT peterl said:

Bournemouth BC Winton East Ward November 14th following the departure of Annina Davis, reported by the local paper in February as being "missing". Not known if this is a resignation of DQ under the 6 month rule.

Result in 2011 Con 709/669/624 Labour 537/481/467 LD 441/394 Green 377 Liberal 268 Ind 221/219/180/167

Possible Labour gain in Bournemouth? What's the history of the ward? I looked on the council website, but although they helpfully listed every election that had been held locally since 1973 they didn't seem to have any but the most recent results.

Lib Dems won it and predecessor ward Moordown consistently from 1991 to 2007, with Jean Moore having a relatively large personal vote in some years. Labour came second only in 1995. Seems that Labour must have put in a big effort in 2011.

It appears to be a student ward (full time students about one third of the population) which may explain the sudden turnaround.

[peterl]

From results across the town in both 2007 and 2011, there appears to have been a substantial backlash against the 2003-7 Lib Dem administration, who were regarded by many in Bournemouth as rather bumbling. In 2011, the Lib Dems won just 3 seats in the borough.

[J.G.Harston]

Scarborough BC, Eastfield, 21st November - Lib Dem resigned around 3rd October

Eastfield 2011:
Con      91+81      =  172   7.4%
Lab     272+260+240 =  772  33.1%
LibDem  468+358+356 = 1182  50.7%
Others  107+97      =  204   8.8%

Since then, LibDem-468 has become unaligned and LibDem-358 is the one that's resigned.

Eastfield & Osgodby County Division, 2013:
Con     213 = 18.5%
Lab     374 = 32.4%
LibDem   70 =  6.1%
Ind.    184 = 16.0%
Other    86 =  7.5%
Simpson 226 = 19.6% former LibDem sitting councillor standing as unaligned

Eastfield Parish Council is coterminal with Eastfield ward. The councillors do not have party labels, but in 2011 most of the members also stood in borough council elections with party labels. Known allegiances at the 2011 Parish election was:
LibDem 3, Labour 2, no allegiance 6
(now LibDem 2, Labour 2, no allegiance 7)

Eastfield is a large suburb on the outskirts of Scarborough disconnected from the rest of the urban Scarborough area. It is almost entirely a post-war housing estate, and is the only part of the former Scarborough MBC to be parished, local activists forming the parish council about 20 years ago. The ward is deliberately over-represented in councillors because a large housing development is at some point about to kick off in the northern half of the ward which will double the local population.

It's nominally a traditional Labour area but in the last decade or so has been dominated by the LibDems due to the leading local Labour councillor joining the LibDems. Since he left the LibDems the local support appears to have reverted to party type. The one remaining LibDem councillor in Eastfield is the last remaining LibDem councillor on Scarborough council.

[ColinJ]

Oct 7, 2013 17:11:14 GMT libertykipper said:

Oct 7, 2013 15:43:54 GMT ColinJ said:

Harrow on the Hill to take place on 7 November. In the Harrow thread I speculated that both the Labour and Conservative parties might prefer to try and leave the seat vacant, but this was always an unlikely scenario with only two electors needed to call it.

Thanks. Both LibLabCon factions expect Ukip to do well next year because the local elections will be held on the same day as the Euro elections. So both factions want a LibLabCon in the seat this year so they can benefit from the incumbent factor.

I don't really understand your comment or find it helpful. The reason I speculated in the other thread that Tories and Labour might prefer to leave the seat vacant is NOT because they are worried of a threat from UKIP..... on the contrary, the demographics in Harrow make the borough poor territory for your party.

No, my reasoning was that this is such a high-profile election in a troubled borough that the Conservatives would be dismayed not to regain the seat from Labour after all their [Labour's] local difficulties. Equally, the last thing Labour want is to lose a seat to the Conservatives in the run-up to next year's all-out elections.

Anyway, I was spectacuarly wrong about the vacancy being 'swept under the carpet'.  Obviously there will be Con and Lab candidates, and, I am told, UKIP.  The Conservative candidate is likely to be one Stephen Lewis, a virgin to elections, as he is the only member of the current Tory team not to be a councillor already.

[libertykipper]

14/Nov Dover, Kent: Sandwich TC (Sandwich South) Con resigned

[meurig]

Vacancy on Torfaen, Croesyceiliog North

[meurig]

Vacancy on Torfaen, Croesyceiliog North

[froome]

Oct 7, 2013 22:47:25 GMT peterl said:

Bournemouth BC Winton East Ward November 14th following the departure of Annina Davis, reported by the local paper in February as being "missing". Not known if this is a resignation of DQ under the 6 month rule.

Result in 2011 Con 709/669/624 Labour 537/481/467 LD 441/394 Green 377 Liberal 268 Ind 221/219/180/167

Potentially could be a very interesting by-election, with many parties in with a chance. And that is without considering the chances of any independent.

Peter - I assume UKIP will stand a candidate this time, which would throw it wide open.

I would hope we would also give this one a go.

My guess is that Labour ought to be favourites here, but making a prediction will be almost impossible.

[middleenglander]

Oct 9, 2013 6:26:20 GMT froome said:

My guess is that Labour ought to be favourites here, but making a prediction will be almost impossible.

Making a prediction is extremely simple. Getting it right is very much more difficult.

[peterl]

Potentially could be a very interesting by-election, with many parties in with a chance. And that is without considering the chances of any independent.

Peter - I assume UKIP will stand a candidate this time, which would throw it wide open.

I would hope we would also give this one a go.

My guess is that Labour ought to be favourites here, but making a prediction will be almost impossible.

Can confirm that we have a candidate lined up yes.

[libertykipper]

14/Nov Torfaen : Pontypool Community Council (Garndiffaith and Varteg)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Oct 4, 2013 22:24:50 GMT middleenglander said:

Possible vacancies
Flintshire CC, Mostyn - Independent councillor's disqualification deferred whilst under appeal

So far as I can tell, this disqualification is on. The Adjudication Panel for Wales notes that the High Court ordered on 20 August that the disqualification be stayed, but that a further Order of 5 September 2013 rescinded the stay. But unfortunately Flintshire County Council appear to be honouring POETS day so I can't say for certain.

[middleenglander]

There are 17 contests remaining during October, 16 already identified for November along with a further 7 known vacancies where there is no date as yet for the by-election. One vacancy in St Helens has remained vacant since early May.

17th October - 6
Carlisle BC, Dalston - Conservative resigned
Chichester DC, Westbourne - Conservative resigned
Luton UA, Barnsfield - Lib Dem resigned
Neath & Port Talbot CB, Sandsfield East - Labour died
South Lakeland DC, Levens - Lib Dem resigned
Thurrock UA, Stifford Clays - Labour died

24th October - 10
Charnwood BC, Loughborough Hastings - Labour resigned
Charnwood BC, Shepshed West - Conservative died
Fife UA, Dunfermline South - Labour died
Havant BC, Waterloo - Conservative resigned
Norfolk CC, North Walsham East - Lib Dem resigned
South Lanarkshire UA, Hamilton South - SNP died
Teignbridge DC, Bovey - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned
West Sussex CC, Warnham & Rusper - Conservative died
Wigan MB, Winstanley - Labour died
Wirral MB, Upton - Labour resigned

31st October - 1
Newport CB, Pillgwenlly - Labour died

7th November - 10
Corby BC, Kingswood - Labour resigned
Durham UA, Crook - Labour died
Harborough DC, Bosworth - Conservative resigned
Harrow LB, Harrow on the Hill - Labour resigned
Herefordshire UA, Tupsley - Its Our County resigned
Nottingham UA, Dale - Labour resigned
Nottingham UA, Radford & Park - Labour resigned
Sefton MB, Derby - Labour died
Spelthorne BC, Riverside & Laleham - Conservative died
West Oxfordshire DC, Chipping Norton - Labour died

14th November - 4
Allerdale DC, Seaton - Independent died
Bournemouth UA, Winton East - Conservative resigned
Cumbria CC, Seaton - Independent died
Stoke-on-Trent UA, Baddeley, Milton & Norton - Labour sitting as unaligned resigned

21st November - 1
Scarborough BC, Eastfield - Lib Dem resigned

28th November - 1
Highland UA, Landward Caithness - SNP resigned

Current known vacancies where by-election not yet called - 7
Bracknell Forest UA, Winkfield & Cranbourne - Conservative died 24th September
Epping Forest DC, Loughton Forest - Resident Association died 7th September
Glasgow UA, Shettleston - Labour died 5th October
Herefordshire UA, Pontrilas - Conservative resigned around 30th September
St Helens MB, Billinge & Seneley - Labour resigned around 10th May
Torfaen BC, Croesyceiliog North - Labour died around 27th September
Wakefield MC, Horbury & South Ossett - Labour died 7th October


Possible vacancies - 2
Brent LB, Dudden Hill - Lib Dem councillor but may be subject to "6 month" rule if resigns as indicated during November
Flintshire CC, Mostyn - Independent councillor's disqualification may have been deferred whilst under appeal