Post by Robert Waller on Nov 16, 2022 20:39:14 GMT
The ’Medway towns’ in Kent, like other places in that county such as Gravesend and Dover, have a justified reputation as being the sites of key marginal battles that reflect, and help to influence, the outcome of UK general elections. Rochester and Strood is very similar to the Medway seat that existed between 1983 and 2010, and that in turn was the lineal successor of Rochester & Chatham, itself created in 1950. Between them, these constituencies changed hands in 1959, 1964, 1970, October 1974, 1979, 1997 and 2010 – usually at the same time as a change of government. Throw in a remarkable byelection in 2014, prescient in some ways but not in others, and Rochester & Strood can be said to have had a fascinating pedigree as an entertaining and key player in parliamentary history.
Rochester & Strood sits mainly along the north bank of the Medway as it approaches the North Sea, and covers the low lying land between it and the estuary of an even more important river, the Thames, though it does encompass both Medway banks in a key section as it passes through Rochester and Chatham. The largest community in this seat, Rochester, cannot be accused of a lack of history. Indeed it was a city until 1998, when the unitary authority of Medway was formed. It has significant medieval connections, its cathedral denoting an episcopal see second only to its Kent neighbour Canterbury in antiquity, founded by Augustine in 604. Rochester’s mighty castle dating back to the 11th century looms over the river, dominating the Medway’s lowest bridge crossing. The town centre is also full of references to that world renowned English icon Charles Dickens (although he was neither born nor grew up here; his country home from 1857 till his death in 1870 being at Gad’s Hill Place, Higham, which is in just over the local authority border in Gravesham rather than this constituency). The town of Rochester is otherwise less distinguished, and in its East ward has Labour’s stronghold within the seat, outpolling the Conservatives by more than two to one in the most recent municipal elections in May 2019. Rochester West ward is a marginal and split its representation between the two major parties in 2019. Rochester South & Horsted, however, further from the river and the town centre, and 80% owner occupied, mirrored East in the sense that here the Tories took twice the share that Labour did. Therefore overall Rochester is a microcosm of marginality within the wider electoral picture.
Strood, not to be confused with Stroud in Gloucestershire, is on the north bank of the Medway opposite Rochester, extending west to the M2. Strood North and South are both wards where election results tend to be close. In Strood North in 2019 Labour and Conservatives took one seat each; in South the Tories won all three, but their lowest vote was only 19 higher than Labour’s best. A tour of wards within the seat does not end here, though. Strood Rural includes a section reaching north to the bank of the Thames, including Cliffe, but most of the land between the Medway and the Thames is in the appropriately named Peninsula ward. This stretches from Hoo St Werburgh all the way to the Isle of Grain, long known for an oil refinery and still housing a power station and the Thamesport container terminal. The scenery is dramatic rather than picturesque. One can easily imagine the Dickensian menace of the marshes and of murderous figures like Magwitch. Also on the Hoo peninsula is the thoroughly odd caravan park holiday resort of Allhallows by Sea; and attempt to visit this by Google street view will reveal how odd. Strood Rural ward was solidly Conservative in 2019, but Peninsula ward, perhaps unsurprisingly, went its own way: two Independents were elected as well as a Tory, but a UKIP candidate finished a close fourth – this long after the party tended to figure more widely in English elections, its main purpose having been achieved. Two UKIP candidates had been elected here in 2015, in circumstances which bear further discussion below.
Two final wards complete the Rochester & Strood constituency as it is drawn at present, and both, like the two on the Hoo peninsula, further strengthen the Conservative position. Cuxton & Halling is set on the north bank of the Medway west of the M2 crossing The Tories have always won it easily. Finally, River ward run along the south bank of the Medway from the bridge at Rochester Castle all the way into Chatham, taking in Brompton and even a goodly portion of the historic Chatham dockyard, one of the great centres of the Royal Navy. In fact, so much of Chatham town centre is in River ward that a claim that the constituency under discussion is the successor to the classic Rochester & Chatham marginal may be sustained (as well as making the naming of the Chatham & Aylesford seat slightly misleading). The Conservatives won both River ward council seats in 2019, as they had ever since 2011; indeed in 2007 they had returned one councillor here in the shape of Craig Mackinlay, formerly acting party leader of UKIP and later a Kent Conservative MP. The extensive new housing developments in the old dockland area, such as at St Mary’s Island, may well have helped here as they have in the East End of London.
Rochester & Strood had an electorate of 82,056 in December 2019 and needed to lose a ward in the most recent boundary review. It might be thought that the River ward might be a candidate for transfer, but in fact the one to be moved is not the ward which is mainly Chatham but one that has Rochester in its name. Rochester South & Horsted’s departure to Chatham & Aylesford will slightly weaken the Tory lead in the donating constituency as well as making the nomenclature even more peculiar, so that the Chatham seat will contain part of Rochester and the Rochester seat part of Chatham. But this can almost certainly be absorbed, as in 2019 Kelly Tolhurst had a majority of over 17,000. This is a relief for her, as she actually lost in her first attempt to be elected here. That was because the Conservative MP elected in 2010, Mark Reckless, rather lived up to his name by not only becoming the second parliamentary defector to UKIP after Douglas Carswell, but bravely putting himself forward for re-election in a byelection in November 2014. He defeated Kelly Tolhurst and eleven other candidates, including a Labour campaign most noted for a tweet by Emily Thornberry that appeared to mock the popular culture of the constituency.
Reckless lost in 2015 but Rochester & Strood will forever be known for its place in Brexit history, as David Cameron was pushed by the UKIP electoral threat into promising a referendum on EU membership. The seat’s votes in 2016 were not at the extreme end of those for departures, but were more than average: Leave 63.7%. The explanation for why Rochester & Strood can no longer be considered a bellwether seat is reinforced by its demographics. Overall it is in fact slightly more working class than average and distinctly with fewer educated to degree level, bit these are now variables that do not hurt the Conservative chances: 2019 was the first general election since such analysis began when the Tories did as well among working class as middle class voters in England. This remarkable change may be reversed somewhat if and when the European issue fades as a key cleavage in British politics, but it is hard to see Labour recovering enough here to be competitive in the immediate future; nor do they need to, with it ranked as 199th on their target list based on 2019 results. Thus this is a seat with a full and exciting history, but maybe a much duller (electoral) future.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 14.6% 485/650
Owner-occupied 68.1% 282/650
Private rented 15.6% 249/650
Social rented 13.8% 410/650
White 90.4% 427/650
Black 2.1% 169/650
Asian 5.0% 231/650
Managerial & professional 28.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 26.4%
Employed in construction 11.2% 16/650
Degree level 20.5% 494/650
Level 2 qualifications 18.2% 12/650
No qualifications 22.3% 356 /650
Students 7.7% 244/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 68.1% 230/573
Private rented 17.9% 296/573
Social rented 14.0% 334/573
White 85.1%
Black 5.0%
Asian 5.8%
Managerial & professional 31.2% 309/573
Routine & Semi-routine 24.2% 274/573
Degree level 27.1% 420/573
No qualifications 18.8% 236/573
General Election 2019: Rochester and Strood
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kelly Tolhurst 31,151 60.0 +5.7
Labour Teresa Murray 14,079 27.1 –8.9
Liberal Democrats Graham Colley 3,717 7.2 +5.0
Green Sonia Hyner 1,312 2.5 +1.0
UKIP Roy Freshwater 1,080 2.1 –3.3
Independent Chris Spalding 587 1.1 New
C Majority 17,072 32.9 +14.6
2019 electorate 82,056
Turnout 51,926 63.3 –1.8
Conservative hold
Swing 7.3 Lab to C
Rochester & Strood sits mainly along the north bank of the Medway as it approaches the North Sea, and covers the low lying land between it and the estuary of an even more important river, the Thames, though it does encompass both Medway banks in a key section as it passes through Rochester and Chatham. The largest community in this seat, Rochester, cannot be accused of a lack of history. Indeed it was a city until 1998, when the unitary authority of Medway was formed. It has significant medieval connections, its cathedral denoting an episcopal see second only to its Kent neighbour Canterbury in antiquity, founded by Augustine in 604. Rochester’s mighty castle dating back to the 11th century looms over the river, dominating the Medway’s lowest bridge crossing. The town centre is also full of references to that world renowned English icon Charles Dickens (although he was neither born nor grew up here; his country home from 1857 till his death in 1870 being at Gad’s Hill Place, Higham, which is in just over the local authority border in Gravesham rather than this constituency). The town of Rochester is otherwise less distinguished, and in its East ward has Labour’s stronghold within the seat, outpolling the Conservatives by more than two to one in the most recent municipal elections in May 2019. Rochester West ward is a marginal and split its representation between the two major parties in 2019. Rochester South & Horsted, however, further from the river and the town centre, and 80% owner occupied, mirrored East in the sense that here the Tories took twice the share that Labour did. Therefore overall Rochester is a microcosm of marginality within the wider electoral picture.
Strood, not to be confused with Stroud in Gloucestershire, is on the north bank of the Medway opposite Rochester, extending west to the M2. Strood North and South are both wards where election results tend to be close. In Strood North in 2019 Labour and Conservatives took one seat each; in South the Tories won all three, but their lowest vote was only 19 higher than Labour’s best. A tour of wards within the seat does not end here, though. Strood Rural includes a section reaching north to the bank of the Thames, including Cliffe, but most of the land between the Medway and the Thames is in the appropriately named Peninsula ward. This stretches from Hoo St Werburgh all the way to the Isle of Grain, long known for an oil refinery and still housing a power station and the Thamesport container terminal. The scenery is dramatic rather than picturesque. One can easily imagine the Dickensian menace of the marshes and of murderous figures like Magwitch. Also on the Hoo peninsula is the thoroughly odd caravan park holiday resort of Allhallows by Sea; and attempt to visit this by Google street view will reveal how odd. Strood Rural ward was solidly Conservative in 2019, but Peninsula ward, perhaps unsurprisingly, went its own way: two Independents were elected as well as a Tory, but a UKIP candidate finished a close fourth – this long after the party tended to figure more widely in English elections, its main purpose having been achieved. Two UKIP candidates had been elected here in 2015, in circumstances which bear further discussion below.
Two final wards complete the Rochester & Strood constituency as it is drawn at present, and both, like the two on the Hoo peninsula, further strengthen the Conservative position. Cuxton & Halling is set on the north bank of the Medway west of the M2 crossing The Tories have always won it easily. Finally, River ward run along the south bank of the Medway from the bridge at Rochester Castle all the way into Chatham, taking in Brompton and even a goodly portion of the historic Chatham dockyard, one of the great centres of the Royal Navy. In fact, so much of Chatham town centre is in River ward that a claim that the constituency under discussion is the successor to the classic Rochester & Chatham marginal may be sustained (as well as making the naming of the Chatham & Aylesford seat slightly misleading). The Conservatives won both River ward council seats in 2019, as they had ever since 2011; indeed in 2007 they had returned one councillor here in the shape of Craig Mackinlay, formerly acting party leader of UKIP and later a Kent Conservative MP. The extensive new housing developments in the old dockland area, such as at St Mary’s Island, may well have helped here as they have in the East End of London.
Rochester & Strood had an electorate of 82,056 in December 2019 and needed to lose a ward in the most recent boundary review. It might be thought that the River ward might be a candidate for transfer, but in fact the one to be moved is not the ward which is mainly Chatham but one that has Rochester in its name. Rochester South & Horsted’s departure to Chatham & Aylesford will slightly weaken the Tory lead in the donating constituency as well as making the nomenclature even more peculiar, so that the Chatham seat will contain part of Rochester and the Rochester seat part of Chatham. But this can almost certainly be absorbed, as in 2019 Kelly Tolhurst had a majority of over 17,000. This is a relief for her, as she actually lost in her first attempt to be elected here. That was because the Conservative MP elected in 2010, Mark Reckless, rather lived up to his name by not only becoming the second parliamentary defector to UKIP after Douglas Carswell, but bravely putting himself forward for re-election in a byelection in November 2014. He defeated Kelly Tolhurst and eleven other candidates, including a Labour campaign most noted for a tweet by Emily Thornberry that appeared to mock the popular culture of the constituency.
Reckless lost in 2015 but Rochester & Strood will forever be known for its place in Brexit history, as David Cameron was pushed by the UKIP electoral threat into promising a referendum on EU membership. The seat’s votes in 2016 were not at the extreme end of those for departures, but were more than average: Leave 63.7%. The explanation for why Rochester & Strood can no longer be considered a bellwether seat is reinforced by its demographics. Overall it is in fact slightly more working class than average and distinctly with fewer educated to degree level, bit these are now variables that do not hurt the Conservative chances: 2019 was the first general election since such analysis began when the Tories did as well among working class as middle class voters in England. This remarkable change may be reversed somewhat if and when the European issue fades as a key cleavage in British politics, but it is hard to see Labour recovering enough here to be competitive in the immediate future; nor do they need to, with it ranked as 199th on their target list based on 2019 results. Thus this is a seat with a full and exciting history, but maybe a much duller (electoral) future.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 14.6% 485/650
Owner-occupied 68.1% 282/650
Private rented 15.6% 249/650
Social rented 13.8% 410/650
White 90.4% 427/650
Black 2.1% 169/650
Asian 5.0% 231/650
Managerial & professional 28.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 26.4%
Employed in construction 11.2% 16/650
Degree level 20.5% 494/650
Level 2 qualifications 18.2% 12/650
No qualifications 22.3% 356 /650
Students 7.7% 244/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 68.1% 230/573
Private rented 17.9% 296/573
Social rented 14.0% 334/573
White 85.1%
Black 5.0%
Asian 5.8%
Managerial & professional 31.2% 309/573
Routine & Semi-routine 24.2% 274/573
Degree level 27.1% 420/573
No qualifications 18.8% 236/573
General Election 2019: Rochester and Strood
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kelly Tolhurst 31,151 60.0 +5.7
Labour Teresa Murray 14,079 27.1 –8.9
Liberal Democrats Graham Colley 3,717 7.2 +5.0
Green Sonia Hyner 1,312 2.5 +1.0
UKIP Roy Freshwater 1,080 2.1 –3.3
Independent Chris Spalding 587 1.1 New
C Majority 17,072 32.9 +14.6
2019 electorate 82,056
Turnout 51,926 63.3 –1.8
Conservative hold
Swing 7.3 Lab to C
