A Sunak effect?

[heslingtonian]

Just wondering if assuming he makes it to the next General Election whether there's now an outside chance of the Conservatives winning some additional seats with large numbers of British Indians due to a Sunak effect? Brent North, Harrow West and Feltham & Heston (or their successor seats) would appear the most likely to me.

[batman]

as explained by Colin elsewhere, boundary changes make a Conservative win in Harrow very unlikely. I'd say Leicester East is a better chance for the Tories than any of the ones you've chosen, with Brent North probably second. I don't see Feltham & Heston as being under that much threat.

[rockefeller]

2011 census Hindu % - rough guess at top 5

Brent North 32%
Leicester East 31%
Harrow East 28%
Harrow West 24%
Ilford South 13%

Could see Brent N being close if Barry Gardiner stands down

[r34t]

Are we talking about British Indians who are Sikhs, Muslims or Hindus ? Or who came to the UK directly from India or via east Africa. I’m afraid that’s as clumsy as assuming that all Scot’s are ‘fiscally conservative’ & therefore will incline to the Tories.

[rockefeller]

Tories have a shot at the Brent and Harrow London Assembly seat - it's effectively a Hindu gerrymander. Bailey carried it in 2021 too.

[mrsir]

Oct 25, 2022 7:35:58 GMT rockefeller said:

2011 census Hindu % - rough guess at top 5

Brent North 32%
Leicester East 31%
Harrow East 28%
Harrow West 24%
Ilford South 13%

Could see Brent N being close if Barry Gardiner stands down

And do we think these percentages will have increased or decreased over the last 10 years? 

I know Hindus who have moved away from Leicester and moved to Hinkley and other safe Conservative Leicestershire areas in recent years, I wonder if something similar may have happened with London Hindus moving to Hertfordshire? 

That said with the scale of migration from India I think we can assume the Hindu population has probably risen a fair bit across England. 

[finsobruce]

Oct 25, 2022 9:42:52 GMT mrsir said:

Oct 25, 2022 7:35:58 GMT rockefeller said:

2011 census Hindu % - rough guess at top 5

Brent North 32%
Leicester East 31%
Harrow East 28%
Harrow West 24%
Ilford South 13%

Could see Brent N being close if Barry Gardiner stands down

And do we think these percentages will have increased or decreased over the last 10 years? 

I know Hindus who have moved away from Leicester and moved to Hinkley and other safe Conservative Leicestershire areas in recent years, I wonder if something similar may have happened with London Hindus moving to Hertfordshire? 

That said with the scale of migration from India I think we can assume the Hindu population has probably risen a fair bit across England. 

Almost certainly the case as all groups (historically) move from North/ East/ South/ West/ London to the nearest 'home' counties.

[batman]

I suspect a lot will have moved to (especially the wealthier areas of) Johnson's constituency, and to Ruislip Northwood & Pinner. Hertfordshire to some extent too.

[rockefeller]

Oct 25, 2022 9:58:11 GMT batman said:

I suspect a lot will have moved to (especially the wealthier areas of) Johnson's constituency, and to Ruislip Northwood & Pinner. Hertfordshire to some extent too.

CON gain Ealing and Hillingdon next time?

[johnloony]

I can’t imagine that it would make any significant difference either way. Voters will judge his performance as PM by results. People who tend to support Labour will not vote for him, because he’s Blue not Red. They aren’t going to suddenly start voting Conservative just because he’s brown not white.

[The Bishop]

PM Sunak could well boost support for the Tories amongst Hindu voters (and to a lesser extent others of Indian extraction) but negative effects are equally possible in some groups/places, though one of the possible reasons for that makes talking about it less fun.

[ColinJ]

Oct 25, 2022 7:03:51 GMT heslingtonian said:

Just wondering if assuming he makes it to the next General Election whether there's now an outside chance of the Conservatives winning some additional seats with large numbers of British Indians due to a Sunak effect? Brent North, Harrow West and Feltham & Heston (or their successor seats) would appear the most likely to me.

As batman mentions, I have explained why I don't think Harrow West is a problem for Labour, but it was in the Labour Room, so you wouldn't have seen it.

Harrow West has a pretty diverse population imo. Certainly it has fewer voters of Hindu heritage than Harrow East, and far more people of Muslim, Tamil and Afro-Caribbean heritage. I don't think that Harrow West is remotely at risk and that, given the size of swings indicated by the polls, Harrow East would obviously be back in play.

I should mention that the proposals, as they stand, of the Boundary Commissioners would mash up the constituencies in the LB of Harrow, so that only one seat ("Harrow") comprises exclusively wards from the LB of Harrow. The rest of Harrow can be found paired with wards from other boroughs in three other constituencies. The "new" Harrow seat, with the addition of the Wealdstone wards to Harrow West, should become monolithically Labour.

[mrsir]

Hindu Population
1. Brent North - 32.0%
2. Leicester East - 31.8%
3. Harrow East - 28.2%
4. Harrow West - 24.7%
5. Ilford South - 13.3%
6. Ealing Southall - 13.2%
7. East Ham - 12.5%
8. Ilford North - 11.9%
9. Feltham & Heston - 11.3%
10. Rusilip, Northwood & Pinner - 11.2%
11. Hayes & Harlington - 10.4%
12. Ealing North - 10.1%
13. Brentford & Isleworth - 9.4%
14. Brent Central - 9.3%
15. Croydon North - 8.1%
16. Mitcham & Morden - 8.1%
17. Hendon - 7.9%
18. Leicester South - 7.3%
19. Leicester West - 6.7%
20. Charnwood - 6.2%
21. Slough - 6.2%
22. Harborough - 5.5%
23. Uxbridge & South Ruislip- 5.5%
24. Finchley & Golders Green - 5.4%
25. West Ham - 5.2%
26. Chipping Barnet - 5.0%
27. Wolverhampton South East - 5.0%

Most of these seats have other minorities who not only overlwheningly vote Labour but might be even more emboldened to do so with Sunak as PM. Perhaps Leicester East will be Sunak’s Putney but that will be very dependent on who the two main parties choose as their candidates.

[greenchristian]

Oct 25, 2022 7:36:15 GMT r34t said:

Are we talking about British Indians who are Sikhs, Muslims or Hindus ? Or who came to the UK directly from India or via east Africa.

And one more factor that you haven't mentioned that may be relevant is caste - which is sometimes as much a factor in British Indian community politics as religion is.

[rockefeller]

I look forward to discussions of a Badenoch effect with great interest!

[londonseal80]

I still think the Tories in for a very bad night though not as bad as it would under Truss or anything like the polls have suggsted. Could be a scattered blob trail of yellow from Kingston to Devon. Both Sutton seats could also go back to yellow (with the council doing the reverse and going Con in 2026). I don’t think he play down well in Wales or in the northern wall.

[bsjmcr]

Oct 25, 2022 10:49:31 GMT johnloony said:

I can’t imagine that it would make any significant difference either way. Voters will judge his performance as PM by results. People who tend to support Labour will not vote for him, because he’s Blue not Red. They aren’t going to suddenly start voting Conservative just because he’s brown not white.

You never know, wasn’t there a swing against Labour in Bradford West, and Bethnal Green & Bow in 1997? I know those seats concern a different religion, and is about candidates than PM, but still, the identity of the Labour/Conservative candidates came into it as I understand it. I don’t think anywhere else would have had a swing against Labour/to the Conservatives, no matter how attractive Blair was/Major’s performance as PM, not even Huntingdon. Those two seats are probably the closest they had to a ‘2019 Putney’ in 1997!

As for Leicester, I assume it’s unlikely Webber will be the Labour candidate next time but Labour would be foolish not to choose a candidate from the predominant community next time, as the swing against them seems disproportionate compared to other Leicester seats or any similar seat really, even higher leave voting ones, and this was before I assume all the allegations about Webbe came out. 

[batman]

Webbe has been expelled, not just suspended, from the Labour Party, so she definitely will not be the Labour candidate.