PVI for the UK

[No Offence Alan]

Nov 8, 2022 18:09:56 GMT greatkingrat said:

So Na h-Eileanan an Iar is actually more socially liberal than the average constituency!

No, it is left-wing on the Economic axis.

[Pete Whitehead]

Left#right social axis



I'm thinking of combining the figures to generate an overall left-right ranking but not sure how meaningful it will be. Lots of very different seats will converge around the centre (economically right-wing/socially Liberal seats in Surrey and the opposite in South Yorkshire) but the extremes at either end may be enlightening

[johnloony]

Nov 8, 2022 19:55:56 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Left#right social axis...

That's similar to a Leave / Remain map.

[greenhert]

Nov 8, 2022 3:44:45 GMT clyde1998 said:

On the social axis:

Most socially conservative

1. Clacton (2019: Con) - 1.694 standard deviations more conservative than average
2. Castle Point (2019: Con) - 1.659
3. Wolverhampton South East (2019: Lab) - 1.619
4. Doncaster North (2019: Lab) - 1.615
5. Ashfield (2019: Con) - 1.605
6. Hartlepool (2019: Lab) - 1.575
7. Barnsley East (2019: Lab) - 1.531
8. Walsall North (2019: Con) - 1.477
9. South Holland and The Deepings (2019: Con) - 1.475
10. Boston and Skegness (2019: Con) - 1.475
    

Most socially liberal

1. Bristol West (2019: Lab) - 4.051 standard deviations more liberal than average
2. Brighton, Pavilion (2019: Grn) - 3.930
3. Islington North (2019: Lab) - 3.150
4. Vauxhall (2019: Lab) - 3.118
5. Sheffield Central (2019: Lab) - 3.062
6. Holborn and St Pancras (2019: Lab) - 3.011
7. Cambridge (2019: Lab) - 3.004
8. Battersea (2019: Lab) - 2.997
9. Islington South and Finsbury (2019: Lab) - 2.974
10. Liverpool, Riverside (2019: Lab) - 2.895
    

Extremes by party

• Con: Clacton (1.694σ conservative) & Cities of London and Westminster (2.713σ liberal).
• Lab: Wolverhampton South East (1.619σ conservative) & Bristol West (4.051σ liberal).
• LDm: Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (0.261σ conservative) & Richmond Park (2.165σ liberal).
• SNP: Glenrothes (0.351σ conservative) & Glasgow North (2.871σ liberal).
  

The spreadsheet with the data is here: link

The most socially conservative seats coincided with high UKIP votes in 2015 (with Clacton, the most socially conservative, being the only seat UKIP ever won at a general election of course) and of the most socially liberal seats, Battersea is the only one that has not seen a saved Green deposit so far; furthermore, Manchester Gorton was the only seat where the Greens finished first or second in 2015 (discounting the then-Speaker's seat of Buckingham) not to make that top 10 list.

[clyde1998]

Nov 8, 2022 20:01:38 GMT johnloony said:

Nov 8, 2022 19:55:56 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Left#right social axis...

That's similar to a Leave / Remain map.

I think I mentioned it on this forum at some point, but I think the Brexit vote is a symptom of a wider movement towards social issues being the main divider in British politics as opposed to an end (or rather a factor) in itself; economic views have dominated British politics since at least the end of World War II and probably earlier. Brexit merely sped up a process which was happening anyway - something which I don't think has been adequately acknowledged by the media or (in some cases) political parties themselves.

On that point, I also believe the failure of the Cameron government to realise social issues would primarily determine the Brexit result, rather than economics, contributed to the leave vote. On a personal point, that campaign basically passed me by due to the leave campaign being focused on winning socially conservative voters and the remain campaign focused on winning economically right-wing voters - I simply couldn't associate with either official campaign and I'm sure others were in that boat. [Note to self: compare turnout in the 2016 referendum to the economic and social position of each constituency to see if there's any trend].

That said, should the cost of living crisis still be a major factor come the next election (which it likely will be), we may see a return towards economic preference being the primary vote driver - so bigger swings towards Labour in the socially conservative left-wing areas than anywhere else would be my prediction right now.

[jamesdoyle]

Nov 8, 2022 19:55:56 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Left#right social axis


I'm thinking of combining the figures to generate an overall left-right ranking but not sure how meaningful it will be. Lots of very different seats will converge around the centre (economically right-wing/socially Liberal seats in Surrey and the opposite in South Yorkshire) but the extremes at either end may be enlightening

Could you do a map of correlation between the two? Econ R/Social R; Econ R/Social L; Econ L/Social R; Econ L/Social L. Use a different colour for each quadrant, scaled as per your blue/red maps, which are, btw, brilliant.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 9, 2022 13:15:49 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Nov 8, 2022 19:55:56 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Left#right social axis


I'm thinking of combining the figures to generate an overall left-right ranking but not sure how meaningful it will be. Lots of very different seats will converge around the centre (economically right-wing/socially Liberal seats in Surrey and the opposite in South Yorkshire) but the extremes at either end may be enlightening

Could you do a map of correlation between the two? Econ R/Social R; Econ R/Social L; Econ L/Social R; Econ L/Social L. Use a different colour for each quadrant, scaled as per your blue/red maps, which are, btw, brilliant.

I actually started work on such a map this morning before work and will finish tonight - not sure how I can apply shadings though where there's two variables. I've also done a combined economic-social map which i will post later

[jamesdoyle]

Nov 9, 2022 13:24:14 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Nov 9, 2022 13:15:49 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Could you do a map of correlation between the two? Econ R/Social R; Econ R/Social L; Econ L/Social R; Econ L/Social L. Use a different colour for each quadrant, scaled as per your blue/red maps, which are, btw, brilliant.

I actually started work on such a map this morning before work and will finish tonight - not sure how I can apply shadings though where there's two variables. I've also done a combined economic-social map which i will post later

I hesitate to suggest things to an acknowledged map-master, but if you averaged the _absolute_ values for the two variables, giving you a number between 0 and (3?) to give you the shade, and then coloured according to the quadrant, I think it would be clear on the map.

[Pete Whitehead]

This is the map of the total left/right (ie just summed the two figures - not sure if this is what jamesdoyle meant by averaging but it amounts to the same thing I think)



Its notable that a large majority of seats (nearly 400) are on the 'right' here, probably because of the more heavy concentration of 'woke leftists' inner urban areas and university towns (the same reason that I think over 400 constituencies voted for Brexit)

This map (which I don't like so much) shows the four categories as follows:

Blue - economic right & social right
Yellow - economic right & social left
Purple - economic left & social right
Red - economic left & social left





Again a small relative number in the last category (in England & Waled at any rate). Some surprising results with seats like Hayes & Harlington, Slough and Luton North appearing in the blue column, presumably reflecting the divergence of attitudes of some Asian voters to both economic and social matters and their partisan preference (and again many of these voted for Brexit)
Obviously each category contains a pretty broad spectrum - for example Bedford is only very slightly to the left on economics and only slightly to the right on social policy whereas Barnsley Central (in the same category) is far to the left on economics and far to the right socially. I'd like to introduce some kind of nuance to that map but haven't worked out how to do it yet and it may not make easy reading.

[bjornhattan]

Nov 9, 2022 17:48:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Obviously each category contains a pretty broad spectrum - for example Bedford is only very slightly to the left on economics and only slightly to the right on social policy whereas Barnsley Central (in the same category) is far to the left on economics and far to the right socially. I'd like to introduce some kind of nuance to that map but haven't worked out how to do it yet and it may not make easy reading.

And to make matters even more complicated - ideally any form of nuance would also be able to distinguish between somewhere like Glenrothes (very far to the left economically but barely right of centre socially) and Boston and Skegness (barely left of centre on economics and very right wing socially). Possibly having it so that the hue of the colour varies with economic position (red areas being on the left and blue areas being on the right and a few shades in between) and its brightness varies with social position (lighter colours representing socially left wing areas, more moderate colours those in between, and darker shades representing socially ring wing areas), but this might not look particularly good and would be hard to colour in.

[gwynthegriff]

Nov 9, 2022 17:48:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

This is the map of the total left/right (ie just summed the two figures - not sure if this is what jamesdoyle meant by averaging but it amounts to the same thing I think)



Its notable that a large majority of seats (nearly 400) are on the 'right' here, probably because of the more heavy concentration of 'woke leftists' inner urban areas and university towns (the same reason that I think over 400 constituencies voted for Brexit)

This map (which I don't like so much) shows the four categories as follows:

Blue - economic right & social right
Yellow - economic right & social left
Purple - economic left & social right
Red - economic left & social left





Again a small relative number in the last category (in England & Waled at any rate). Some surprising results with seats like Hayes & Harlington, Slough and Luton North appearing in the blue column, presumably reflecting the divergence of attitudes of some Asian voters to both economic and social matters and their partisan preference (and again many of these voted for Brexit)
Obviously each category contains a pretty broad spectrum - for example Bedford is only very slightly to the left on economics and only slightly to the right on social policy whereas Barnsley Central (in the same category) is far to the left on economics and far to the right socially. I'd like to introduce some kind of nuance to that map but haven't worked out how to do it yet and it may not make easy reading.

Fascinating maps and yellow a good choice for econ right/ social left as it seems to match up with quite a few current/recent Lib Dem seats.

[Pete Whitehead]

and future ones

[yellowperil]

Nov 9, 2022 18:37:37 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Nov 9, 2022 17:48:22 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

This is the map of the total left/right (ie just summed the two figures - not sure if this is what jamesdoyle meant by averaging but it amounts to the same thing I think)



Its notable that a large majority of seats (nearly 400) are on the 'right' here, probably because of the more heavy concentration of 'woke leftists' inner urban areas and university towns (the same reason that I think over 400 constituencies voted for Brexit)

This map (which I don't like so much) shows the four categories as follows:

Blue - economic right & social right
Yellow - economic right & social left
Purple - economic left & social right
Red - economic left & social left





Again a small relative number in the last category (in England & Waled at any rate). Some surprising results with seats like Hayes & Harlington, Slough and Luton North appearing in the blue column, presumably reflecting the divergence of attitudes of some Asian voters to both economic and social matters and their partisan preference (and again many of these voted for Brexit)
Obviously each category contains a pretty broad spectrum - for example Bedford is only very slightly to the left on economics and only slightly to the right on social policy whereas Barnsley Central (in the same category) is far to the left on economics and far to the right socially. I'd like to introduce some kind of nuance to that map but haven't worked out how to do it yet and it may not make easy reading.

Fascinating maps and yellow a good choice for econ right/ social left as it seems to match up with quite a few current/recent Lib Dem seats.

Or could be Lib Dem seats...

Yeah- think I'd settle for that as a map of Lib Dem seats next time.

[bjornhattan]

Nov 9, 2022 18:58:36 GMT Andrew_S said:

Interesting that it looks like nowhere in Scotland is in the dark blue category.

Looking at the figures, Banff and Buchan appears to come closest; it is just 0.070 standard deviations left of centre economically. Another near miss is Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale, and Tweeddale, which is 0.024 left of centre economically and 0.131 left of centre socially (making it one of the most average seats in Britain).

[greatkingrat]

199 seats are Economic Right / Social Conservative (190 Con, 8 Lab, 1 PC)
130 seats are Economic Right / Social Liberal (99 Con, 19 Lab, 8 LD, 4 SNP)
170 seats are Economic Left / Social Conservative (97 Lab, 66 Con, 1 LD, 6 SNP)
133 seats are Economic Left / Social Liberal (79 Lab, 38 SNP, 10 Con, 3 PC, 2 LD, 1 Grn)

[yellowperil]

Nov 9, 2022 19:23:11 GMT greatkingrat said:

199 seats are Economic Right / Social Conservative (190 Con, 8 Lab, 1 PC)
130 seats are Economic Right / Social Liberal (99 Con, 19 Lab, 8 LD, 4 SNP)
170 seats are Economic Left / Social Conservative (97 Lab, 66 Con, 1 LD, 6 SNP)
133 seats are Economic Left / Social Liberal (79 Lab, 38 SNP, 10 Con, 3 PC, 2 LD, 1 Grn)

I think the party ascriptions are based on the 2019 election results? A few would have changed through by-elections, whip, removal, etc.

[gwynthegriff]

Nov 9, 2022 19:23:11 GMT greatkingrat said:

199 seats are Economic Right / Social Conservative (190 Con, 8 Lab, 1 PC)
130 seats are Economic Right / Social Liberal (99 Con, 19 Lab, 8 LD, 4 SNP)
170 seats are Economic Left / Social Conservative (97 Lab, 66 Con, 1 LD, 6 SNP)
133 seats are Economic Left / Social Liberal (79 Lab, 38 SNP, 10 Con, 3 PC, 2 LD, 1 Grn)

I think all the LD seats in England are in Category 2. O&S and Edin West in Cat 4, C&S etc in Cat 3.

[J.G.Harston]

Nov 9, 2022 19:23:11 GMT greatkingrat said:

199 seats are Economic Right / Social Conservative (190 Con, 8 Lab, 1 PC)
130 seats are Economic Right / Social Liberal (99 Con, 19 Lab, 8 LD, 4 SNP)
170 seats are Economic Left / Social Conservative (97 Lab, 66 Con, 1 LD, 6 SNP)
133 seats are Economic Left / Social Liberal (79 Lab, 38 SNP, 10 Con, 3 PC, 2 LD, 1 Grn)

That map could very easily be Lab/LD/Con/UKIP with a "proper" party system. Hung parliament, UKIP-lead UKIP/Con coalition government. Which I suppose is what we've essentially got at the moment.

[clyde1998]

I've done a cluster analysis of the constituency results - putting each constituency into one of ten groups (click on the map for bigger image):


The groups I've come up with (need to become better at naming things):

Colour	Name	#	Economic	Social	Example seats
Peach	Progressives	54	Moderate left	Moderate liberal	Canterbury; Ceredigion
Pink	Economic left	40	Left wing	Centrist	Glasgow East; Knowsley
Purple	Conservative Working Class	51	Slightly left	Strongly conservative	Clacton; Scunthorpe
Red	Liberal left	27	Strongly left	Strongly liberal	Brighton, Pavilion; Sheffield Central
Blue	Strong Conservative	101	Right wing	Conservative	Castle Point; South Holland and The Deepings
Light blue	Tory-Liberals	81	Right wing	Slightly liberal	Buckingham; Tatton
Yellow	Centre	86	Centre	Centre	Ipswich; Gordon
Dark red	Traditional Labour	58	Left wing	Moderate conservative	Blackburn; Rhondda
Orange	Liberal Right	20	Right wing	Strongly liberal	Cambridge; Wimbledon
Mid-blue	Rural Right	114	Right wing	Centre	Beaconsfield; Penrith and The Border

[aargauer]

Odd that Canterbury is "progressive", but Cambridge is "liberal right".