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Post by matureleft on May 19, 2022 6:30:48 GMT
This seems to have passed us by. The first round is on 29 May.
Gustavo Petro, the second round loser in 2018, is again the left’s candidate and is fairly comfortably ahead in the polls getting close to his second round vote last time, suggesting an advance since then.
Beyond Colombia the outcome has significance as an historic US (and NATO) ally. It has never had a leftist government.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 19, 2022 10:35:34 GMT
What would his election mean for the stalled peace agreement?
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Post by matureleft on May 19, 2022 12:19:09 GMT
What would his election mean for the stalled peace agreement? Should he win he’ll have to work with a recently elected 2 chamber parliament. His party has a fairly small proportion of the seats. And there’s the normal separation of powers. So some very high level skills required to implement even a proportion of what is a radical programme. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 19, 2022 15:49:16 GMT
What would his election mean for the stalled peace agreement? Should he win he’ll have to work with a recently elected 2 chamber parliament. His party has a fairly small proportion of the seats. And there’s the normal separation of powers. So some very high level skills required to implement even a proportion of what is a radical programme. Skills which, whatever his other qualities, it is generally accepted that Petro doesn't have. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 30, 2022 18:55:46 GMT
2018 vs. 2022: Votes:  %:  %-deViations from nat.average (trend):  |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 30, 2022 19:47:50 GMT
Should he win he’ll have to work with a recently elected 2 chamber parliament. His party has a fairly small proportion of the seats. And there’s the normal separation of powers. So some very high level skills required to implement even a proportion of what is a radical programme. Skills which, whatever his other qualities, it is generally accepted that Petro doesn't have. something has to give. If he can't deliver his program because they won't pass it there must be some compromise |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 30, 2022 20:32:42 GMT
Skills which, whatever his other qualities, it is generally accepted that Petro doesn't have. something has to give. If he can't deliver his program because they won't pass it there must be some compromise If Petro will be elected after all! (What looks presently rather unlikely.) |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 30, 2022 21:03:01 GMT
something has to give. If he can't deliver his program because they won't pass it there must be some compromise If Petro will be elected after all! (What looks presently rather unlikely.) oh? All the polls so far show Petro ahead with one or two a tie or Hernandez lead |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 31, 2022 16:00:09 GMT
If Petro will be elected after all! (What looks presently rather unlikely.) oh? All the polls so far show Petro ahead with one or two a tie or Hernandez lead Have You seen their date? In the final week none were allowed and as a consequence none before had been able to detect the entire extent of Hernandez's final momentum. And since the first round none have been published. Based on the numbers from last sunDay he has presently doubtlessly to be favoured - his problem will be, that the public will have a closer look at him from now on. |
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Post by matureleft on May 31, 2022 17:33:52 GMT
oh? All the polls so far show Petro ahead with one or two a tie or Hernandez lead Have You seen their date? In the final week none were allowed and as a consequence none before had been able to detect the entire extent of Hernandez's final momentum. And since the first round none have been published. Based on the numbers from last sunDay he has presently doubtlessly to be favoured - his problem will be, that the public will have a closer look at him from now on. You could be right. However Petro managed a shade over 25% in the first round last time and just over 40% in the first round this time. In the second round last time he managed just under 42%. He's clearly done a better job of marshalling his support this year. There'll be some big money and blocs against him. His own record isn't great and will provide material but, of course, he's a pretty known quantity having been around for a long time so there should be few surprises. |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 31, 2022 18:02:25 GMT
oh? All the polls so far show Petro ahead with one or two a tie or Hernandez lead Have You seen their date? In the final week none were allowed and as a consequence none before had been able to detect the entire extent of Hernandez's final momentum. And since the first round none have been published. Based on the numbers from last sunDay he has presently doubtlessly to be favoured - his problem will be, that the public will have a closer look at him from now on. So there's no actually data in the campaign period |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 31, 2022 18:38:40 GMT
Have You seen their date? In the final week none were allowed and as a consequence none before had been able to detect the entire extent of Hernandez's final momentum. And since the first round none have been published. Based on the numbers from last sunDay he has presently doubtlessly to be favoured - his problem will be, that the public will have a closer look at him from now on. You could be right. However Petro managed a shade over 25% in the first round last time and just over 40% in the first round this time. In the second round last time he managed just under 42%. He's clearly done a better job of marshalling his support this year. There'll be some big money and blocs against him. His own record isn't great and will provide material but, of course, he's a pretty known quantity having been around for a long time so there should be few surprises. Yes, but look at where the votes are coming from this time - Fico voters are not going to be a rich seam for Petro to mine, and you might well expect that Fajardo voters will favour Hernandez (though wouldn’t have favoured Fico if he got into the runoff). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 31, 2022 18:48:45 GMT
Have You seen their date? In the final week none were allowed and as a consequence none before had been able to detect the entire extent of Hernandez's final momentum. And since the first round none have been published. Based on the numbers from last sunDay he has presently doubtlessly to be favoured - his problem will be, that the public will have a closer look at him from now on. So there's no actually data in the campaign period Nothing is at en/es.wikipedia. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 31, 2022 21:13:16 GMT
To be not misunderstood: That a candidate of "the harder left" achieved to assemble outright 40% behind him, can certainly be celebrated in that camp - they are ad portas.
But if he will fail in 18 days - which are not much time for publishing bad relevations on his opPonent - and also in future, his present-day supporters might view him retrospectly as "Colombia's Corbyn" (or Melenchon), i.e. as someone, whose problematic past prohibited a left victory for many years.
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Post by mattbewilson on May 31, 2022 23:34:04 GMT
To be not misunderstood: That a candidate of "the harder left" achieved to assemble outright 40% behind him, can certainly be celebrated in that camp - they are ad portas. But if he will fail in 18 days - which are not much time for publishing bad relevations on his opPonent - and also in future, his present-day supporters might view him retrospectly as "Colombia's Corbyn" (or Melenchon), i.e. as someone, whose problematic past prohibited a left victory for many years. the irony about Melenchon's defeat is how it's united the left in France. In defeat he appears to united all of the left in France despite being the most divisive figure on the French left. He who split from the socialists may well save the socialists from completely vanishing |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 1, 2022 0:22:59 GMT
To be not misunderstood: That a candidate of "the harder left" achieved to assemble outright 40% behind him, can certainly be celebrated in that camp - they are ad portas. But if he will fail in 18 days - which are not much time for publishing bad relevations on his opPonent - and also in future, his present-day supporters might view him retrospectly as "Colombia's Corbyn" (or Melenchon), i.e. as someone, whose problematic past prohibited a left victory for many years. the irony about Melenchon's defeat is how it's united the left in France. In defeat he appears to united all of the left in France despite being the most divisive figure on the French left. He who split from the socialists may well save the socialists from completely vanishing Yes, albeit "energized" might be better than "united"... |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 1, 2022 1:27:47 GMT
the irony about Melenchon's defeat is how it's united the left in France. In defeat he appears to united all of the left in France despite being the most divisive figure on the French left. He who split from the socialists may well save the socialists from completely vanishing Yes, albeit "energized" might be better than "united"... There is actually more LREM dissident candidates than NUPES dissident candidates, according to media counts. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 1, 2022 19:28:44 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 18, 2022 23:20:48 GMT
The course of the OpinionPolls has been this:  So in the last days before the first round and immedialtely afterWards Hernández was ahead of Petro, but since then it has been a tossUp. Petro recovered by playing - amusingly as an exGuerilllero... - the card of the responsible statesMan, while Hernández had difficulties to get&hold his antiPetro-coalition together as soon as people had a closer look at him: Conservatives had to discover, that he is on the one hand a leftliberal technicianSoul ("El Ingeniero") with weird&woke positions; the Mid(left)ies, that he is on the other hand also a (self)righteous businessMan a la Berlusconi or Trump, now dependent on support from Uribismo. All in all Petro might be slightly favoured finally. (But it will all depend on the TurnOut of the antiPetro-camp - Petro himself will certainly get not many more or less votes than in the first round.) What is a shame, as the campaign of Hernández (at least the one once for the mayorality of a city) was dedicated to "KANTianismo" and conducted by a "Movimiento Lógica, Ética y Estética"... |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jun 19, 2022 21:00:58 GMT
Polls are closed. No exit polls, but results for the preconteo will come through fairly quickly here: www.registraduria.gov.co/ |
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