clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
|
Post by clyde1998 on Apr 4, 2022 14:36:35 GMT
clyde1998 That’s a fantastic effort. A lot of those seats make sense eg; the Brexit Party preferences, but I’d forgot about Plaid Cymru breaking for Labour which of course makes sense. Could you post the Labour/Conservative/Non-transfers for each party in GB according to your method? The GB hard Conservative vs Labour preferences were (first column set all voters, second column set removing voters not giving at least one party a score of five or over):
| Con | Lab | Equal | NT | | Con | Lab | Equal | NT | | LDm | 26.4% | 49.7% | 17.6% | 6.4% | | 22.0% | 37.5% | 6.0% | 34.5% | | Brx | 61.7% | 14.5% | 16.0% | 7.9% | | 56.5% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 30.0% | | SNP | 5.3% | 63.1% | 27.1% | 4.5% | | 4.7% | 37.6% | 0.8% | 56.9% | | PC | 29.5% | 37.3% | 28.3% | 4.9% | | 27.1% | 28.9% | 10.1% | 33.9% | | Grn | 23.7% | 46.3% | 22.9% | 7.0% | | 14.2% | 37.3% | 5.3% | 43.3% | | Oth | 33.9% | 40.4% | 14.6% | 11.1% | | 31.8% | 35.7% | 8.4% | 24.1% | | All | 27.7% | 46.1% | 19.5% | 6.8% | | 23.3% | 34.0% | 5.0% | 37.8% |
Only the Brexit Party (in both figures) and the SNP (in the first column) break overwhelmingly (55%+) towards one of the two parties, which shows the great complexities of people's preferences and political views, and how voters don't do what you necessarily expect them to do. |
|
sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
|
Post by sirbenjamin on Apr 4, 2022 15:27:45 GMT
The idea that elections could be decided on a tiny handful of 4th or 5th preference transfers makes me thankful that AV was roundly rejected.
Close results could literally come down to whether electors fully understood the voting system or not.
|
|
