Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2022 22:33:16 GMT
If 75 people had voted Lib Dem instead of SNP, Jo Swinson would have held her seat. How would the Liberal Democrats be doing now if she had stayed on as leader?
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427 
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Post by iain on Mar 18, 2022 23:02:48 GMT
I liked and voted for Jo as leader, but probably worse.
I also think her loss has worrying ramifications for the union, as it will make the Tories and Labour warier of promoting figures from Scottish constituencies.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 19, 2022 9:37:46 GMT
If 75 people had voted Lib Dem instead of SNP, Jo Swinson would have held her seat. How would the Liberal Democrats be doing now if she had stayed on as leader? I think worse, but certainly no better. She made a major tactical error in pursuing the 'revoke Article 50 without a referendum' policy, which prevented the Lib Dems from winning 20+ seats (in my view); that's without talking about the 'next PM' farce. The very fact she managed to lose East Dunbartonshire, which was/is very pro-EU and very pro-Union - which should make it a perfect Lib Dem seat in Scotland - is very telling, especially losing it to the SNP. Apparently, she didn't spend much time in the constituency prior to the election, which didn't help her chances there either. On domestic policies, I think she was too heavily associated with the coalition government, especially on things such as zero hours contracts. The Lib Dems are (largely) where they are now due to the coalition and for people to be reminded of it was a factor in the Lib Dem's relatively poor performance in 2019. I think under Ed Davey, there's a strategy of targeting liberal-minded, economically right leaning Conservative held seats. That may cost them in the national vote figures, but gives them a serious chance of winning a meaningful number of seats come 2023/24. I don't remember seeing much of that in 2019, aside from a couple of seats. Davey also has a clean slate to work with, that Swinson wouldn't've had following the election. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Mar 19, 2022 10:15:04 GMT
If you look at the Swinson strategy as trying to get more votes and trying to out-maneuver Labour when they themselves moved to a 2nd Ref position when you look at the popular vote increase in 2019 nationwide, the fact the LD vote went up in just about every seat, the 90 plus second places across the country, it worked. It's just that in this electoral system, seats not votes matter most, as Swinson herself tragically found out. I think the LDs will look at Swinson the same way Tories are starting to look at Theresa May, yes the campaign itself made a lot of mistakes, but if you look a the underlying trends of the Conservative vote in 2017, it set themselves well for 2019, the same for Swinson in 2019.
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 19, 2022 10:31:45 GMT
This is purely a personal opinion. But quite apart from policy, in particular the revoke approach which was odd given all they needed was a simple call for another referendum given Labour’s inability to provide anything which wasn't confusing, I think Swinson herself was the problem.
She came over as aggressive and shrill and her voice and interview style I found repellent. The arrogance of thinking she could tel a much larger party to replace their leader was not sensible or possible. In consequence she came over as much more sympathetic to the Tories despite the opposition to Brexit.
The LibDems should be relieved she is out of the picture. Davey is no great shakes and is too similar to Starmer but is a relatively safe pair of hands.
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Post by grahammurray on Mar 19, 2022 10:38:20 GMT
This is purely a personal opinion. But quite apart from policy, in particular the revoke approach which was odd given all they needed was a simple call for another referendum given Labour’s inability to provide anything which wasn't confusing, I think Swinson herself was the problem. She came over as aggressive and shrill and her voice and interview style I found repellent. The arrogance of thinking she could tel a much larger party to replace their leader was not sensible or possible. In consequence she came over as much more sympathetic to the Tories despite the opposition to Brexit. The LibDems should be relieved she is out of the picture. Davey is no great shakes and is too similar to Starmer but is a relatively safe pair of hands. Hands up anyone who has ever heard a male politician, or a male anything, described as shrill. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,375
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Post by stb12 on Mar 19, 2022 10:47:34 GMT
If 75 people had voted Lib Dem instead of SNP, Jo Swinson would have held her seat. How would the Liberal Democrats be doing now if she had stayed on as leader? I think worse, but certainly no better. She made a major tactical error in pursuing the 'revoke Article 50 without a referendum' policy, which prevented the Lib Dems from winning 20+ seats (in my view); that's without talking about the 'next PM' farce. The very fact she managed to lose East Dunbartonshire, which was/is very pro-EU and very pro-Union - which should make it a perfect Lib Dem seat in Scotland - is very telling, especially losing it to the SNP. Apparently, she didn't spend much time in the constituency prior to the election, which didn't help her chances there either. On domestic policies, I think she was too heavily associated with the coalition government, especially on things such as zero hours contracts. The Lib Dems are (largely) where they are now due to the coalition and for people to be reminded of it was a factor in the Lib Dem's relatively poor performance in 2019. I think under Ed Davey, there's a strategy of targeting liberal-minded, economically right leaning Conservative held seats. That may cost them in the national vote figures, but gives them a serious chance of winning a meaningful number of seats come 2023/24. I don't remember seeing much of that in 2019, aside from a couple of seats. Davey also has a clean slate to work with, that Swinson wouldn't've had following the election. There was a thought that her style of campaigning probably turned off a lot of pro-union Labour and Tory voters that would tend to vote tactically against the SNP. When you look at the figures and the small majority it backs that up, she really should have been able to hold onto East Dunbartonshire |
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 19, 2022 10:57:46 GMT
This is purely a personal opinion. But quite apart from policy, in particular the revoke approach which was odd given all they needed was a simple call for another referendum given Labour’s inability to provide anything which wasn't confusing, I think Swinson herself was the problem. She came over as aggressive and shrill and her voice and interview style I found repellent. The arrogance of thinking she could tel a much larger party to replace their leader was not sensible or possible. In consequence she came over as much more sympathetic to the Tories despite the opposition to Brexit. The LibDems should be relieved she is out of the picture. Davey is no great shakes and is too similar to Starmer but is a relatively safe pair of hands. Hands up anyone who has ever heard a male politician, or a male anything, described as shrill. That doesn't mean her grating voice and presentation style isn't shrill. It's about her shortcomings, not those of others. Male voices would tend to attract other less than favourable descriptors. Her defeat was certainly very welcome, |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 19, 2022 11:07:04 GMT
If you look at the Swinson strategy as trying to get more votes Her apologists tried to make out she had done OK in the election, based on this. But in FPTP votes are only a means to an end. The reality is that they indulged in a *lot* of ludicrously optimistic targeting (maybe most notoriously Kensington, though that was actually far from alone) and the resulting misallocation of resources meant they actually lost seats they really shouldn't have (Carshalton, Hallam) |
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Post by matureleft on Mar 19, 2022 12:05:41 GMT
The 2019 campaign was a mess and some of the the positions taken were unwise, but to what extent was that Swinson’s fault? People do exaggerate the power and influence of leaders in UK politics. She must have at least agreed with the approach but I’d presume some wider group devised the offer and directed the campaign (including targeting and how to handle the ex-Change UK contingent).
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 19, 2022 12:50:13 GMT
If 75 people had voted Lib Dem instead of SNP, Jo Swinson would have held her seat. How would the Liberal Democrats be doing now if she had stayed on as leader? I suspect in such narrow circumstances she'd probably have resigned to spend more time with her constituency (to which there would have bbeen much rejoicing in 649 constituencies). Yes the Liberals clung on to Jeremy Thorpe in 1970 but in an era when parties were more forgiving and the turnover in 2017 meant that it would take a bit of time for an obvious alternative to Tim Farron to emerge (and arguably he jumped too early - did he have a talk about gay sex to go to?). I can't see a leader on a one or two figure majority realistically retaining the post. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 19, 2022 12:51:40 GMT
The 2019 campaign was a mess and some of the the positions taken were unwise, but to what extent was that Swinson’s fault? People do exaggerate the power and influence of leaders in UK politics. She must have at least agreed with the approach but I’d presume some wider group devised the offer and directed the campaign (including targeting and how to handle the ex-Change UK contingent). The post defeat report was pretty damning of her and the wider debate made it clear she was listening far too much to Chuka Umuna. Okay Umuna and His Ego deserve blame but for the leader to allow the incomers to push such an approach was a disaster for the long term strategy of the party. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 19, 2022 12:51:52 GMT
Hands up anyone who has ever heard a male politician, or a male anything, described as shrill. That doesn't mean her grating voice and presentation style isn't shrill. It's about her shortcomings, not those of others. Male voices would tend to attract other less than favourable descriptors. Her defeat was certainly very welcome, The Scottish Young Liberals posted this pseudo defence of her: To which I reply: 1). Listen to Michael Gove. 2). Remember how Rory Bremner impersonated the late Robin Cook? 3). Or Dead Ringers' take on Andrew Marr? 4). So are many others in politics. Starting with Ian Blackford. 5). Wasn't most of the Coalition satire based around David Cameron as a prefect and Nick Clegg as his fag? 6). Nor did Tim Farron for one. 7). Again Farron. 8). Clearly the SYLs are too young to remember Tony Blair grinning so much that Spitting Image produced a second puppet: |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Mar 19, 2022 13:36:27 GMT
If you look at the Swinson strategy as trying to get more votes Her apologists tried to make out she had done OK in the election, based on this. But in FPTP votes are only a means to an end. The reality is that they indulged in a *lot* of ludicrously optimistic targeting (maybe most notoriously Kensington, though that was actually far from alone) and the resulting misallocation of resources meant they actually lost seats they really shouldn't have (Carshalton, Hallam) Did you read my whole post or only the first sentence? I literally said what you said that I highlighted in my post. |
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Post by matureleft on Mar 19, 2022 15:35:28 GMT
The 2019 campaign was a mess and some of the the positions taken were unwise, but to what extent was that Swinson’s fault? People do exaggerate the power and influence of leaders in UK politics. She must have at least agreed with the approach but I’d presume some wider group devised the offer and directed the campaign (including targeting and how to handle the ex-Change UK contingent). The post defeat report was pretty damning of her and the wider debate made it clear she was listening far to much to Chuka Ummuna. Okay Ummuna and His Ego deserve blame but for the leader to allow the incomers to push such an approach was a disaster for the long term strategy of the party. Ok. But I’d be interested in a Lib Dem perspective. I had assumed the party wasn’t too leader-focused. Clearly the leader counts but whether she was listening to Umunna wouldn’t matter that much in a more collective culture. I’ve never been a Lib Dem so I don’t know how much power the leader has. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 19, 2022 15:51:34 GMT
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Mar 19, 2022 17:18:51 GMT
No, because the general public largely don't know or care who the leader of the Lib Dems is.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 20, 2022 11:55:44 GMT
Her apologists tried to make out she had done OK in the election, based on this. But in FPTP votes are only a means to an end. The reality is that they indulged in a *lot* of ludicrously optimistic targeting (maybe most notoriously Kensington, though that was actually far from alone) and the resulting misallocation of resources meant they actually lost seats they really shouldn't have (Carshalton, Hallam) Did you read my whole post or only the first sentence? I literally said what you said that I highlighted in my post. Yes but you appeared to suggest it had some validity as a strategy, when that is rarely the case for a "third" party. In truth, it was to a significant degree people getting high on their own supply after the European elections. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 20, 2022 19:39:11 GMT
If Jo Swinson had held her seat, be it by 1 vote, the 149 she lost by or by 5,000 I’ll wager she wouldn’t be leader now.
If she had won she would have been seat #12 (exactly the same as the previous GE, all be it on a higher vote). Large chunks of the party would have demanded an inquiry and for heads to roll, especially after the European success, the B&R by-election and all the defections over the previous eight months. It would have been seen as the ultimate wasted opportunity. If she survived the challenge and/or silenced her critics she would have struggled to find a voice/position after Brexit and during Covid.
The C&A and North Shropshire by-elections would have been won by the Lib Dems with her just as they were without her. The only potential improvement might have been an extra list seat in Scotland perhaps?
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Mar 20, 2022 20:32:16 GMT
No, because the general public largely don't know or care who the leader of the Lib Dems is.
I met somebody the other day who genuinely believed it was still Vince Cable.
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