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Post by froome on Mar 11, 2022 9:35:39 GMT
Green vote down in both Hitchin seats, even with Labour not standing. Yeah - suggests a lack of effort on our part and a very active Lib Dem campaign. Very good results for your side. I would be surprised if we ran an active campaign there. However, it also knocks on the head the assumption that Labour voters are more likely to transfer our way than to the Lib Dems in all circumstances. Our vote didn't go down much, but in a ward where the Lib Dems are campaigning to win, it is just as likely that more Labour voters will transfer to them. |
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Post by owainsutton on Mar 11, 2022 9:40:42 GMT
Yeah - suggests a lack of effort on our part and a very active Lib Dem campaign. Very good results for your side. I would be surprised if we ran an active campaign there. However, it also knocks on the head the assumption that Labour voters are more likely to transfer our way than to the Lib Dems in all circumstances. Our vote didn't go down much, but in a ward where the Lib Dems are campaigning to win, it is just as likely that more Labour voters will transfer to them. Agree with all of this. Was talking to someone from the local party just last week, not specifically about this by-election but they and the local LDs and Labour are all well aware of each others' targets and avoid stepping on toes. |
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Post by samdwebber on Mar 11, 2022 9:41:40 GMT
Following the Green gain in Rutland, a report - as yet unconfirmed - that existing Green councillor Miranda Jones from Uppingham has resigned (moving away). Confirmed here: |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Mar 11, 2022 9:53:34 GMT
HEREFORDSHIRE Bromyard West Davies, Catherine Clare (Independent) 315 - True Independent Ferguson, Nicholas David (Independent) 152 - Independents for Herefordshire Franklin, Mark (Local Conservatives) 100 Independents patriotic front The peoples front for an Independent Bromyard Independent Bromyard Front.. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 11, 2022 10:03:31 GMT
HEREFORDSHIRE Bromyard West Davies, Catherine Clare (Independent) 315 - True Independent Ferguson, Nicholas David (Independent) 152 - Independents for Herefordshire Franklin, Mark (Local Conservatives) 100 Independents patriotic front The peoples front for an Independent Bromyard Independent Bromyard Front.. "I'm more independent than you are!" |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 11, 2022 10:06:29 GMT
GWBWI
Grn +68
LDm -9
Lab -69
Con -124
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 11, 2022 10:14:06 GMT
Independents patriotic front The peoples front for an Independent Bromyard Independent Bromyard Front.. "I'm more independent than you are!" This sort of spat is if course very common where independents group together in order to wield more influence on a council. There are nearly always some independents who don’t want to play ball for whatever reason. But that usually means that their reason for being a councillor doesn’t involve actually influencing policy or decisions. |
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Post by batman on Mar 11, 2022 10:26:42 GMT
GWBWI Grn +68 LDm -9 Lab -69 Con -124 how can Labour be in this index when they stood no candidates? of course one can & should argue that they should have done, but..... |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 11, 2022 10:35:00 GMT
GWBWI Grn +68 LDm -9 Lab -69 Con -124 how can Labour be in this index when they stood no candidates? of course one can & should argue that they should have done, but..... Because in the Hertfordshire contests (where as you say they stood no candidates) their vote dropped. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 11, 2022 10:41:00 GMT
GWBWI Grn +68 LDm -9 Lab -69 Con -124 Puzzled about howe we end up with a minus figure when our majorities in the two Hitchin seats were so greatly improved. I appreciated that we dropped out of the Rutland contest, but I'd really love to know how your algorithm (and I'm assuming you have one to determine the numbers) works it out. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 11, 2022 10:44:49 GMT
GWBWI Grn +68 LDm -9 Lab -69 Con -124 Puzzled about howe we end up with a minus figure when our majorities in the two Hitchin seats were so greatly improved. I appreciated that we dropped out of the Rutland contest, but I'd really love to know how your algorithm (and I'm assuming you have one to determine the numbers) works it out. Absence of a candidate in Rutland compared to last time? |
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Post by shadsy on Mar 11, 2022 10:48:17 GMT
Betting markets didn't see the Bromyard West result coming - the winner was the outsider of three with a last traded price of 8.6.
The Conservative candidate was backed in from 2.34 to 1.59 and finished last.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 11, 2022 10:49:03 GMT
Given the above designations in the Herefordshire contest, is Its Our County no longer a thing?
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 11, 2022 10:57:59 GMT
GWBWI Grn +68 LDm -9 Lab -69 Con -124 Puzzled about howe we end up with a minus figure when our majorities in the two Hitchin seats were so greatly improved. I appreciated that we dropped out of the Rutland contest, but I'd really love to know how your algorithm (and I'm assuming you have one to determine the numbers) works it out. Yes, there is an algorithm - that was the point, to have a measure of performance that wasn't based on subjective criteria. I did post in detail about how it worked when I started this. When the new election year starts in May, I shall revisit some of this, refine it, and post a full explanation. Basically, this week, the LibDem absence in Rutland gives a reasonably big negative value purely on vote share dropping. Herefordshire obviously has no score because there was no candidate this time or last time. In the Hertfordshire results, the scoring of the increases in vote share is discounted because of the previous history of holding the seats: I use a weighted index of past history, holding a seat scores less the more 'solid' its history; conversely, losing a seat gets a higher negative score if it has been 'solid' in the past. The history weighting is based on the past four cycles (where available). I do think this needs modifying slightly, both to take account of seats where there isn't four cycles of data (due to boundary changes), and to recognise that even when the seat is absolutely solid (the defending party has held every seat over four cycles), there is still some value to holding the seat and/or increasing vote share. So I do agree with you to some extent that the increase in vote share should be given a bit more credit. It's still a work in progress, and I do welcome these points. |
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Post by tonyhill on Mar 11, 2022 11:01:13 GMT
"No, It's OUR County"!
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Post by owainsutton on Mar 11, 2022 11:02:19 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 11, 2022 11:03:45 GMT
The councillors for 'It's Our County' are now part of the Independents for Herefordshire group, which unofficially endorsed Ferguson in the byelection.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 11, 2022 11:11:41 GMT
Given the above designations in the Herefordshire contest, is Its Our County no longer a thing? Independents for Herefordshire and True Independents are both groupings on the council. Neither are, as far as I can see, registered parties. I believe all those elected as It's Our County sit with Independents for Herefordshire (along with other independents), but It's Our County are still registered at the moment. Beyond that it's not totally clear. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 11, 2022 11:28:51 GMT
Given the above designations in the Herefordshire contest, is Its Our County no longer a thing? Independents for Herefordshire and True Independents are both groupings on the council. Neither are, as far as I can see, registered parties. I believe all those elected as It's Our County sit with Independents for Herefordshire (along with other independents), but It's Our County are still registered at the moment. Beyond that it's not totally clear. From Andrew’s Preview, the Independent for Herefordshire are a coalition of various Independents, including It’s Our County who only joined the grouping late last year, plus the Greens. True Independents appear to be the rest who haven’t joined the governing IFH group; the outgoing councillor had endorsed the runner up, despite not having the It’s Our County description, whilst the True Independents had endorsed the winner. |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 11, 2022 11:53:15 GMT
Independents for Herefordshire and True Independents are both groupings on the council. Neither are, as far as I can see, registered parties. I believe all those elected as It's Our County sit with Independents for Herefordshire (along with other independents), but It's Our County are still registered at the moment. Beyond that it's not totally clear. From Andrew’s Preview, the Independent for Herefordshire are a coalition of various Independents, including It’s Our County who only joined the grouping late last year, plus the Greens. True Independents appear to be the rest who haven’t joined the governing IFH group; the outgoing councillor had endorsed the runner up, despite not having the It’s Our County description, whilst the True Independents had endorsed the winner. I note that the winner in Bromyard is a former mayor of the town and is President of the chamber of commerce. Had I had time to find that out before making my prediction, I think I may well have thought she would be favourite. |
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