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Post by batman on Jan 2, 2022 21:18:50 GMT
Kensington deserves a mention. So many wards with completely implacable Tory support, and yet some very big Labour strongholds. There are many other very polarised constituencies. What has led to it switching to Labour in 2017 (and remaining ultra-marginal in 2019)? Increased turnout in the Labour strongholds (which I assume may usually have a low turnout) or the wealthy areas, being 'London Metropolitan' as they say, switching to Labour, or both? a mixture; Labour were probably assisted by the Lib Dems getting protest votes from some of the wealthiest voters - I remember seeing a lot of Lib Dem posters in the south of the constituency, which I had to visit in that period, and remember thinking My, this won't help the Tories much - and by an increased turnout in the Labour strongholds. |
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Post by batman on Jan 2, 2022 21:21:03 GMT
Eton and Slough used to have a claim but unfortunately the odd couple got split up by the Boundary Commission in 1983. Yes feel free to nominate historic (and proposed!) ones too. Prestwich and Middleton (abolished 1974 and was proposed in the now abandoned boundary review) is aptly described on Wikipedia: "It was an unusual constituency, because Middleton and Prestwich were physically separated by Heaton Park, a large green area bequeathed to Manchester City Council, and had nothing whatsoever in common. Prestwich was a well established middle class suburb with a large Jewish minority, and during the inter-war years boasted several millionaires. Middleton, on the other hand, was greatly expanded by a large Manchester overspill council estate, and at one point during the 1950s, Prestwich had no Labour councillors, while Middleton had no Conservatives"Of course the difference is somewhat less disparate now, though the shape of the constituency would be no nicer, Heaton Park still exists, but Prestwich is now made of Labour/LD councillors, and Alkrington wouldn't look out of place in Prestwich while the small estate in Prestwich on the boundary with Salford (Kersal), and much of the Besses ward of Whitefield, wouldn't look out of place in Langley. Marple and Hyde (which has a great name, like a detective book) was also suggested in the previous boundary review. Middleton & Prestwich wasn't abolished until 1983. It was a Labour gain in 1974 and was held narrowly in 1979 |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 2, 2022 21:36:36 GMT
Yes feel free to nominate historic (and proposed!) ones too. Prestwich and Middleton (abolished 1974 and was proposed in the now abandoned boundary review) is aptly described on Wikipedia: "It was an unusual constituency, because Middleton and Prestwich were physically separated by Heaton Park, a large green area bequeathed to Manchester City Council, and had nothing whatsoever in common. Prestwich was a well established middle class suburb with a large Jewish minority, and during the inter-war years boasted several millionaires. Middleton, on the other hand, was greatly expanded by a large Manchester overspill council estate, and at one point during the 1950s, Prestwich had no Labour councillors, while Middleton had no Conservatives"Of course the difference is somewhat less disparate now, though the shape of the constituency would be no nicer, Heaton Park still exists, but Prestwich is now made of Labour/LD councillors, and Alkrington wouldn't look out of place in Prestwich while the small estate in Prestwich on the boundary with Salford (Kersal), and much of the Besses ward of Whitefield, wouldn't look out of place in Langley. Marple and Hyde (which has a great name, like a detective book) was also suggested in the previous boundary review. Middleton & Prestwich wasn't abolished until 1983. It was a Labour gain in 1974 and was held narrowly in 1979 Corrected. I have no idea why I said 1974 having read the article and it wasn’t even the last election for P&M either! For the record, Labour held Neighbouring Bury and Radcliffe in 1979 by just 38 votes! A bit less divided than P&M I’d say, more within the normal range of variation (as one poster said above absolutely agree most constituencies will have some variation). As B&R didn’t include Ramsbottom, but Tottington was and still is a bedrock of Conservatism in what is now Bury North. Radcliffe probably wasn’t as deprived as it is now either. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 2, 2022 22:07:27 GMT
Fascinating. The 1997 result reflects this (500 majority) but it's now over 20,000. Did the Conservatives and Caroline Spelman work the tower block area hard, or did they become attracted by Brexit, or not turn out? I guess comparing LE results to GE usually exposes any split voting/personal vote factor of the incumbent/local vs national issues. I suspect a bit of all of those. Turnout will be lower in Chelmsley Wood than in Meriden and Knowle. Also there will have been new housing built in the Meriden part since 1997 and less new housing in Chelmsley Wood I assume, and the types of houses that have been built will also have tipped the balance to the Conservatives a bit. Also, as has been commented on many times in the past on here, the Greens now win huge victories in local elections in Chelmsley wood, and whilst that doesn’t translate ( yet) into Green general election votes, the activism of the Greens in the area has probably loosened the habit of voting Labour there. In a 1997 style Labour landslide now, I would certainly expect the Conservative majority here to be comfortably more than 500 couple of notes: it's not really the Meriden part, ie the rural part, where the growth has been. It's the outskirts of Solihull. And I think the Green le wins are more the effect than the cause of the loosening of the Labour voting habit... the place should have been annexed into Birmingham when it was built, maybe Labour would then still care about voters there. |
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Post by froome on Jan 2, 2022 22:15:46 GMT
Any constituency that Bridgwater finds itself in will be amongst the most disparate.
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Post by batman on Jan 2, 2022 22:48:04 GMT
Middleton & Prestwich wasn't abolished until 1983. It was a Labour gain in 1974 and was held narrowly in 1979 Corrected. I have no idea why I said 1974 having read the article and it wasn’t even the last election for P&M either! For the record, Labour held Neighbouring Bury and Radcliffe in 1979 by just 38 votes! A bit less divided than P&M I’d say, more within the normal range of variation (as one poster said above absolutely agree most constituencies will have some variation). As B&R didn’t include Ramsbottom, but Tottington was and still is a bedrock of Conservatism in what is now Bury North. Radcliffe probably wasn’t as deprived as it is now either. yes, remember that well. Frank White was a very popular constituency MP and kept the swing down to a small fraction; nobody really gave him much of a chance at the time. My cousin voted Labour in Middleton & Prestwich in that election, his first as a voter. |
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Crimson King
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Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 2, 2022 22:48:53 GMT
Keighley?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 2, 2022 22:58:21 GMT
Meriden is always worth an entry for this. Some of the wealthiest areas in the country in Meriden and the tower blocks of Chelmsley Wood in the same constituency. during the 1997-2005 period, Meriden was the only Conservative seat in the top 50 (I think it was) most deprived constituencies, because, as you say, of Chelmsley Wood. Of course it was very close to going Labour in 1997 IIRC Kensington also scores surprisingly highly on deprivation measures as those not in the middle/upper class majority tend to be very poor. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 2, 2022 23:10:18 GMT
Sedgefield is a good shout. The majority of the constituency is deprived ex coal mining communities and Newton Aycliffe (a New Town for residents of ex mining villages), but at the southern end are a collection of small agricultural villages that wouldn’t be out of place in North Yorkshire. These villages will never have had any truck with the Labour Party except perhaps a personal vote for the former prime minister, while the Tories still aren’t very close to winning the likes of Wingate or Wheatley Hill yet.
Neighbouring Stockton South is another good pick. Uber middle class Yarm and Ingleby Barwick don’t have in common with post-industrial Thornaby,
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 2, 2022 23:22:15 GMT
Corrected. I have no idea why I said 1974 having read the article and it wasn’t even the last election for P&M either! For the record, Labour held Neighbouring Bury and Radcliffe in 1979 by just 38 votes! A bit less divided than P&M I’d say, more within the normal range of variation (as one poster said above absolutely agree most constituencies will have some variation). As B&R didn’t include Ramsbottom, but Tottington was and still is a bedrock of Conservatism in what is now Bury North. Radcliffe probably wasn’t as deprived as it is now either. yes, remember that well. Frank White was a very popular constituency MP and kept the swing down to a small fraction; nobody really gave him much of a chance at the time. My cousin voted Labour in Middleton & Prestwich in that election, his first as a voter. My dad remembers the great amusement of having ‘a’ Jim Callaghan as MP for Middleton and Prestwich, who was not the prime minister at the time. Mr Callaghan of course astutely stuck with Middleton which joined with Heywood (a much better fit!) until 1997. Having said that there are also mansions in Norden and Bamford but these are massively outweighed by the towns and H&M going Tory in 2019 is due to brexit, nothing else. Those two wards would have been Tory through the ages anyhow, so not really in this category as much as P&M which as described was a tale of two towns. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jan 3, 2022 0:12:44 GMT
Hendon would be a good shout I think. Yes - from the southern border of Edgware southwards along the A5, the western part of the constituency is dominated by council estates (or, these days, large speculative recent tower blocks) and light industrial areas which have made two of Hendon's wards and half of a third historically safe Labour territory - and demographically very different from the rest of the constituency. Some miles to the east, this kind of contrast is mirrored in Enfield North, this time with the eastern distinctly working-class wards in the Lea valley contrasting strongly with the middle-class (and historically, though not so much any longer) Conservative-voting western part of the constituency. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jan 3, 2022 0:28:13 GMT
I suspect a bit of all of those. Turnout will be lower in Chelmsley Wood than in Meriden and Knowle. Also there will have been new housing built in the Meriden part since 1997 and less new housing in Chelmsley Wood I assume, and the types of houses that have been built will also have tipped the balance to the Conservatives a bit. Also, as has been commented on many times in the past on here, the Greens now win huge victories in local elections in Chelmsley wood, and whilst that doesn’t translate ( yet) into Green general election votes, the activism of the Greens in the area has probably loosened the habit of voting Labour there. In a 1997 style Labour landslide now, I would certainly expect the Conservative majority here to be comfortably more than 500 couple of notes: it's not really the Meriden part, ie the rural part, where the growth has been. It's the outskirts of Solihull. And I think the Green le wins are more the effect than the cause of the loosening of the Labour voting habit... the place should have been annexed into Birmingham when it was built, maybe Labour would then still care about voters there. It is incredibly rare that I will defend the Labour Party on anything but I don't think it is fair to accuse them of not caring for the voters of Chelmsley Wood. The Labour councillors who represented the area prior to the Green wave were largely decent local councillors who used their limited influence to ensure that various Conservative administrations pumped money into the area. Also the last time there was a non-Conservative administration the junior Lab partner of the LD-Lab coalition were regarded as the only people in the administration who had a clue what they were doing. Unfortunately while they were decent councillors the Labour group had no experience of competitive elections and were easily swept aside by a loathsome bunch a lying, opportunistic Green scum who are effective campaigners but utterly shit councillors. The people of Chelmsley Wood have been ill served by the dramatic political change of their area. Also when people say "the Meriden part" they mean southern five wards, not just Meriden itself. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 3, 2022 0:34:28 GMT
couple of notes: it's not really the Meriden part, ie the rural part, where the growth has been. It's the outskirts of Solihull. And I think the Green le wins are more the effect than the cause of the loosening of the Labour voting habit... the place should have been annexed into Birmingham when it was built, maybe Labour would then still care about voters there. It is incredibly rare that I will defend the Labour Party on anything but I don't think it is fair to accuse them of not caring for the voters of Chelmsley Wood. The Labour councillors who represented the area prior to the Green wave were largely decent local councillors who used their limited influence to ensure that various Conservative administrations pumped money into the area. Also the last time there was a non-Conservative administration the junior Lab partner of the LD-Lab coalition were regarded as the only people in the administration who had a clue what they were doing. Unfortunately while they were decent councillors the Labour group had no experience of competitive elections and were easily swept aside by a loathsome bunch a lying, opportunistic Green scum who are effective campaigners but utterly shit councillors. The people of Chelmsley Wood have been ill served by the dramatic political change of their area. Also when people say "the Meriden part" they mean southern five wards, not just Meriden itself. Out of interest, do you know how much Caroline Spelman worked that area too? She may have helped a few people there, the Labour vote was below 10,000 in 2015! Turns out she was briefly Defra secretary, and from a video appears to speak impeccable Queen's English and does come across as sincere. |
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jan 3, 2022 0:51:35 GMT
Bristol North West. Westbury, Henleaze and Sneyd Park contrasting with Southmead, Lockleaze and Lawrence Weston
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 3, 2022 8:09:57 GMT
Both Portsmouth seats are pretty diverse, and indeed, until such time (if ever) the split in the city becomes east/west rather than north/south they will continue to be so.
Hastings & Rye is also rather a disprate constituency, with the plentiful deprivation in parts of Hastings connected with the very comfortable (well apart from the estate in Peasmarsh), very rural Rye hinterland.
Wirral West is very jarring too, with The Woody in Upton ward in the same seat as Hoylake and West Kirby & the affluent mid-Wirral suburban villages.
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 3, 2022 9:18:51 GMT
I live in Dewsbury constituency these days. Three Dewsbury wards which are a mixture of Asian occupied terraced houses and wwc Council estates, with a few pockets of owner occupied semis and new build detached. Then Kirkburton ward which is a set of villages in nice countryside with one large student village at Storthes Hall. Normally Tory but has had Green councillors and still does at parish level. Denby Dale which is former mining villages now full of M1 commuters, a Lab-Con marginal at local level, but more Con nationally especially now. Finally Mirfield, which is typical Tory suburbia plus the village of Hopton, couple of Labour voting estates and small mill worker terraces. Strong community with big remembrance day celebration etc. 100% Tory town council. No one in Mirfield would accept they have any connection whatsoever with Dewsbury (or Huddersfield).
At GE counts they use one set of tables for the three Dewsbury wards and another for the other three, and watching the bundles accumulate looks like two opposing landslides
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 3, 2022 9:27:18 GMT
I live in Dewsbury these days. Three Dewsbury wards which are a mixture of Asian occupied terraced houses and wwc Council estates, with a few pockets of owner occupied semis and new build detached. Then Kirkburton ward which is a set of villages in nice countryside with one large student village at Storthes Hall. Normally Tory but has had Green councillors and still does at parish level. Denby Dale which is former mining villages now full of M1 commuters, a Lab-Con marginal at local level, but more Con nationally especially now. Finally Mirfield, which is typical Tory suburbia plus the village of Hopton, couple of Labour voting estates and small mill worker terraces. Strong community with big remembrance day celebration etc. 100% Tory town council. No one in Mirfield would accept they have any connection whatsoever with Dewsbury (or Huddersfield). At GE counts they use one set of tables for the three Dewsbury wards and another for the other three, and watching the bundles accumulate looks like two opposing landslides Mirfield Urban District Council by-election Saturday (!) 4th March 1939
Milner Day (Labour) 524 Norman Jenkins (Ind) 485
Labour hold
by-election caused by the death of Cllr J W Jenkins, who had collapsed at a meeting of the Education committee in the previous December and died in late January. He had been a member of the council since 1919 , made chairman in 1937 and had worked for the LMS for 46 years. Only once had he been opposed at election time. Attendance at the funeral included the Borough Surveyor, Mr Trees. Day was like his predecessor a railwayman (fireman to be precise) and had stood unsuccessfully in 1937 and 1938, and Jenkins, secretary of the Mirfield Gas Company was a previous member of the council (1933-6).
In 1933 the town clerk had written to the West Riding County Council to register their opposition to the amalgamation scheme proposed by Dewsbury, and asking for the County Council's support in the matter.
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Post by froome on Jan 3, 2022 10:04:56 GMT
Another contender must be Vale of Clwyd, combining the Merseyside Riviera with its Welsh farming hinterland. Rhyl's voters are rarely going to vote the same way as those in Denbigh, St Asaph and much of the rest of the constituency.
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Post by owainsutton on Jan 3, 2022 10:43:54 GMT
couple of notes: it's not really the Meriden part, ie the rural part, where the growth has been. It's the outskirts of Solihull. And I think the Green le wins are more the effect than the cause of the loosening of the Labour voting habit... the place should have been annexed into Birmingham when it was built, maybe Labour would then still care about voters there. It is incredibly rare that I will defend the Labour Party on anything but I don't think it is fair to accuse them of not caring for the voters of Chelmsley Wood. The Labour councillors who represented the area prior to the Green wave were largely decent local councillors who used their limited influence to ensure that various Conservative administrations pumped money into the area. Also the last time there was a non-Conservative administration the junior Lab partner of the LD-Lab coalition were regarded as the only people in the administration who had a clue what they were doing. Unfortunately while they were decent councillors the Labour group had no experience of competitive elections and were easily swept aside by a loathsome bunch a lying, opportunistic Green scum who are effective campaigners but utterly shit councillors. The people of Chelmsley Wood have been ill served by the dramatic political change of their area. Were you the author of attack leaflets from Labour in Solihull elections past? Because the tone is very similar. Obvs. the attacks were highly effective. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 3, 2022 10:49:39 GMT
Cardiff North. The Llandaff North ward is mainly a relatively large former council estate. The Gabalfa ward is a mix of former council estate and student. The rest ranges from comfortably middle class (e.g. Heath) to very well-to-do (e.g. Lisvane). Unfortunately, comfortably middle class in a place like that now tends to mean public sector. Which is why it no longer votes like it did in 1992.
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