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Post by andrewp on Jan 28, 2022 13:20:05 GMT
County division shares
Con 57.9 % ( -14.5 from May)
Lab 19.9% (-0.1)
LD 15.8% ( didn’t stand in Mayj
Green 6.5% (-1.1)
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 28, 2022 13:24:46 GMT
In this febrile and over-heated political climate, I feel that those results are good for the Conservatives in an area that it is important not to see slippage let alone total melt-down. I am wondering if the ridiculous hype over Partygate is not starting to create an opposite reaction?
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 28, 2022 13:28:41 GMT
Which may be a nuisance atm but in general I applaud them - maybe not on Twitter and Facebook for the same reasons as I am not on Twitter and Facebook? In this day and age a council should definitely be on social media, it’s a free way of getting information out to residents, an example, ours daily put out the venues for the walk in vaccination centres that are in three or four different places every day, emergency road closures, etc. Given the lack of a credible local newspaper, the gutting of BBC Local Radio and the scandalous abdication of responsibility by Ofcom in letting Bauer and Global destroy the independent local radio sector, it’s one of the last bastions for disseminating local information. I understand what you are saying, but one of the principal reasons for the decline of local newspapers., local radio, etc is the advent of social media in all its nastiness and I for one just won't give in to it until it is properly subject to control. |
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Post by matureleft on Jan 28, 2022 13:29:24 GMT
Or it could be that those electors who cared felt that events in Westminster and Johnson's travails were not relevant to the decision they were making - who their representative should be in local government. And they have a point if that was their thinking.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 28, 2022 13:29:33 GMT
Thought you might pipe up with something like that carlton43  Don't know how the DC results compare, but the County result does indeed show significant "slippage" for the Tories since last May - as you would expect tbh. Next month's byelections - which will no longer have pre-"scandal" postal votes complicating them - will give us a good indication of where the land really lies IMO. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 28, 2022 13:34:31 GMT
In this febrile and over-heated political climate, I feel that those results are good for the Conservatives in an area that it is important not to see slippage let alone total melt-down. I am wondering if the ridiculous hype over Partygate is not starting to create an opposite reaction? “not to see slippage”, a drop of 21.1% in Maypole & Leyton Cross and 14.5% in Wilmington doesn’t count as slippage? Your definition of what does will be “interesting”. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 28, 2022 13:39:53 GMT
In this febrile and over-heated political climate, I feel that those results are good for the Conservatives in an area that it is important not to see slippage let alone total melt-down. I am wondering if the ridiculous hype over Partygate is not starting to create an opposite reaction? It is interesting that this is true of an area like Dratford ( I think I'm going to adopt that version of the name) which has always been a two party area, once very much Lab-Con marginal and where Labour have faded badly and no other party has made much of a headway- the Lib Dems have always been pretty weak and I am not surprised they made little headway this time in spite of some hyping up.What did surprise me was the swing back to Labour was as feeble as it was. I don't think the divided opposition argument holds much water as there wasn't that much of it. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 28, 2022 13:41:37 GMT
Thought you might pipe up with something like that carlton43 Don't know how the DC results compare, but the County result does indeed show significant "slippage" for the Tories since last May - as you would expect tbh. Next month's byelections - which will no longer have pre-"scandal" postal votes complicating them - will give us a good indication of where the land really lies IMO. Hopefully the same slippage will happen to the Tory vote in the next General election. Right now we do know that the Tory vote has not collapsed below 32% or so, and these elections indicate a bit more but with more candidates standing and the fact that theses are local byelections means not much can be read into it |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 28, 2022 13:44:21 GMT
Thought you might pipe up with something like that carlton43  Don't know how the DC results compare, but the County result does indeed show significant "slippage" for the Tories since last May - as you would expect tbh. Next month's byelections - which will no longer have pre-"scandal" postal votes complicating them - will give us a good indication of where the land really lies IMO. The Tory vote was up in one DC election and down in the other. I think in all 3, there is a big asterisk in comparing, due to there being different parties contesting compared to the last election, which does make comparing not an exact science. Of course the morons on Twitter have no understanding of different parties standing. My favourite comment today was that the Tory vote going from 84% to 63% in Maple Cross, ( where there were 4 candidates instead of 2 last time) means that the Tories will go from 44% to 23% at the next general election. That being said, I, along with the most of the prediction contest competitors thought that all 3 would be a bit closer than they were, particularly given that 2 of the 3 had a previous incumbent with an apparent personal vote, and the Tory share in all 3 was a bit higher than we expected and I don’t think we have reached Tory meltdown in local elections yet. I do remember soon after Christmas and the Gedling result people speculated that the full impact of partygate would be felt this week or next week as those are the first contests where all postal votes would be cast post Christmas. I don’t think todays results are that different to what they would have been say last September. Having said that, it’s probably also worth noting that these wards are close to Old Bexley and Sidcup, and like that was, are probably a relatively favourable demographic for the Tories to be competing in by elections at the moment, particularly being areas that the Lib Dems aren’t competitive in. |
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Post by jm on Jan 28, 2022 13:55:15 GMT
These are not particularly interesting by-elections. Anything other than a Tory hold in all 3 was highly unlikely.
I haven't checked but hopefully we have some by-elections in 'red wall' and marginal seats in the coming weeks. They will give a much better indication of the state of the parties at present.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 28, 2022 14:02:50 GMT
These are not particularly interesting by-elections. Anything other than a Tory hold in all 3 was highly unlikely. I haven't checked but hopefully we have some by-elections in 'red wall' and marginal seats in the coming weeks. They will give a much better indication of the state of the parties at present. There aren’t that many of those in coming weeks. Perhaps the nearest are one in Tamworth next week and one in Grimsby on 17th Feb |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 28, 2022 14:08:21 GMT
In this day and age a council should definitely be on social media, it’s a free way of getting information out to residents, an example, ours daily put out the venues for the walk in vaccination centres that are in three or four different places every day, emergency road closures, etc. Given the lack of a credible local newspaper, the gutting of BBC Local Radio and the scandalous abdication of responsibility by Ofcom in letting Bauer and Global destroy the independent local radio sector, it’s one of the last bastions for disseminating local information. I understand what you are saying, but one of the principal reasons for the decline of local newspapers., local radio, etc is the advent of social media in all its nastiness and I for one just won't give in to it until it is properly subject to control. Controlling media isn't very liberal, and niether is controlling social interactions. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 28, 2022 14:20:52 GMT
I understand what you are saying, but one of the principal reasons for the decline of local newspapers., local radio, etc is the advent of social media in all its nastiness and I for one just won't give in to it until it is properly subject to control. Controlling media isn't very liberal, and niether is controlling social interactions. Okay, control was probably the wrong word, but "unfettered "media of whatever sort will be controlled by someone with their own motives and I remain deeply suspicious of facebook, twitter and all such. My personal reaction is simply to refuse to participate and encourage anyone else to do the same. Somehow, I don't suppose it's a battle I am going to win, but I don't think there's anything illiberal about that line. |
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Post by listener on Jan 28, 2022 14:26:09 GMT
It seems that the Lib Dems are picking up disaffected Conservative votes rather than Labour. Compared with 2019, the Conservative in Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone and Hawley appears to have won back the votes of the Independent (deselected Conservative) candidate.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 28, 2022 14:32:55 GMT
In this day and age a council should definitely be on social media, it’s a free way of getting information out to residents, an example, ours daily put out the venues for the walk in vaccination centres that are in three or four different places every day, emergency road closures, etc. Given the lack of a credible local newspaper, the gutting of BBC Local Radio and the scandalous abdication of responsibility by Ofcom in letting Bauer and Global destroy the independent local radio sector, it’s one of the last bastions for disseminating local information. I understand what you are saying, but one of the principal reasons for the decline of local newspapers., local radio, etc is the advent of social media in all its nastiness and I for one just won't give in to it until it is properly subject to control. Local newspapers, some small part, but a greater role was played by a relaxation in competition laws which, again to give a local example, allowed The (Stoke) Sentinel to purchase 10 rival newspapers, ranging from Leek, Biddulph and Cheadle in the Moorlands, down to Uttoxeter, plus two freesheets covering the City and close them, leaving the behemoth as the only game in town. Local radio decline goes way back before social media; 1997 was the first General Election at which our radio coverage came from Radio WM in Birmingham not Radio Stoke. The only local broadcasts after 6pm are when either Stoke City or Port Vale are playing, and they provide commentary. There is no independent local radio since Signal was rebranded Greatest Hits 12 months ago. As I said this was a direct result of Ofcom ignoring their “local provision” mandate and allowing Bauer and Global to purchase over 80% of the independent local radio industry and turn it into a national homogeneous blob. Blaming the decline of local media on the rise of social media is simply not backed up by the facts. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 28, 2022 15:06:29 GMT
Dartford: Maypole & Leyton Cross - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 | | Conservative | 334 | 63.1% | -21.1% | | Green | 76 | 14.4% | from nowhere | | Labour | 65 | 12.3% | -3.5% | | Liberal Democrat | 54 | 10.2% | from nowhere | | Total votes | 529 |
| 94% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 8¾% since 2019 Council now: 29 Conservative, 9 Labour, 2 Independent group, 2 Alliance Group Dartford: Wilmington, Sutton-at-Hone & Hawley - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 B | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | | Conservative | 996 | 67.8% | -6.2% | +16.9% | +18.4% | | Labour | 272 | 18.5% | -4.0% | +5.0% | +4.9% | | Liberal Democrat | 200 | 13.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Reform |
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| -3.4% |
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| | Independent Lampkin |
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| -18.6% | -19.4% | | UKIP |
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| -16.9% | -17.6% | | Total votes | 1,468 |
| 74% | 63% | 66% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 1% since May but Labour to Conservative 6% / 6¾% since 2019 Council now: 29 Conservative, 9 Labour, 2 Independent Group, 2 Alliance Group Kent: Wilmington - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2017 | | Conservative | 1,787 | 57.9% | -14.5% | -5.1% | | Labour | 613 | 19.9% | -0.1% | -0.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 487 | 15.8% | from nowhere | +11.1% | | Green | 200 | 6.5% | -1.1% | from nowhere | | UKIP |
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| -12.0% | | Total | 3,087 |
| 75% | 75% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 7¼% since May and 2¼% since 2017 Council now: 62 Conservative, 7 Labour, 6 Liberal Democrat, 4 Green, 1 Independent, 1 Resident Association
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jan 31, 2022 16:51:27 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +64
Grn +23
Lab +6
Con +0
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Post by johnloony on Jan 31, 2022 18:10:16 GMT
GWBWI LDm +64 Grn +23 Lab +6 Con +0 What does “gwbwi” mean? I can’t find it in my Welsh dikshunry. |
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Post by batman on Jan 31, 2022 18:43:31 GMT
Good Week Bad Week Index. It's James's thang
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Post by evergreenadam on Jan 31, 2022 18:44:06 GMT
Pretty good for the Lib Dems in unpromising territory.
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