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Post by Penddu on Aug 2, 2022 3:18:58 GMT
They are exactly the same at any point in time. Any changes in ward boundaries etc that occur between elections will lead to temporary and minor differences, which will be corrected at next election. Yes I know that. It was a rhetorical question more or less - the actual question, directed to π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ was 'surely the Parliamentary and Assembly constituencies are the same so it is equally possible to calculate the results for paired constituencies for the one electiona as for the other'. Obviously I hadn't appreciated that he was being too lazy to collate the results and was reliant on somebody else having created a spreadsheet for him. I suspected that was the case - but I dont think he was being lazy - he was trying to justify using a set of inapplicable data because it gave a set of results which promoted his particular agenda
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Post by Penddu on Aug 2, 2022 3:23:14 GMT
2. Willingness of voters to be more experimental with Senedd votes but reverting to type for Westminster votes. a fairly clear indication that they regard the former as less important. Effectively a denunciation of Welsh Nationalism No - more a recongnition that the different bodies have a different impact on our lives. Voting in Senedd election will have no impact on say War in Ukraine. Voting in Westminster election has limited impact on Health or Education in Wales (despite what some politicians say).
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 2, 2022 5:23:38 GMT
No - more a recongnition that the different bodies have a different impact on our lives. Voting in Senedd election will have no impact on say War in Ukraine. Voting in Westminster election has limited impact on Health or Education in Wales (despite what some politicians say). Whist split voting between the constituency and the region has never shown a huge deviation how do you think people only having one vote/one ballot will pan out? Will people who traditionally vote Lab/Con then also vote Green/UKIP stick to their traditional vote or will they be more willing to switch because an element of proportionality will exist?
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Post by Penddu on Aug 2, 2022 9:25:25 GMT
No - more a recongnition that the different bodies have a different impact on our lives. Voting in Senedd election will have no impact on say War in Ukraine. Voting in Westminster election has limited impact on Health or Education in Wales (despite what some politicians say). Whist split voting between the constituency and the region has never shown a huge deviation how do you think people only having one vote/one ballot will pan out? Will people who traditionally vote Lab/Con then also vote Green/UKIP stick to their traditional vote or will they be more willing to switch because an element of proportionality will exist? I am not sure..... Those people who actually take an interest (as opposed to those who just vote the way their parents did) should be more encouraged to vote for their 'true' choice if they think they could actually get elected. But it might take one or two election cycles for people to be comfortable with this.
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Aug 2, 2022 22:47:28 GMT
No - more a recongnition that the different bodies have a different impact on our lives. Voting in Senedd election will have no impact on say War in Ukraine. Voting in Westminster election has limited impact on Health or Education in Wales (despite what some politicians say). Whist split voting between the constituency and the region has never shown a huge deviation how do you think people only having one vote/one ballot will pan out? Will people who traditionally vote Lab/Con then also vote Green/UKIP stick to their traditional vote or will they be more willing to switch because an element of proportionality will exist? The main exception of course being Brecon and Radnor, where about 1 Lib Dem voter in 5 goes for Labour on the list. Extremely lucky for the Lib Dems this time that that proportion wasn't higher β 748 more electors making that switch and it would have been bye-bye Jane Dodds.
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Post by Penddu on Aug 4, 2022 3:59:43 GMT
Whist split voting between the constituency and the region has never shown a huge deviation how do you think people only having one vote/one ballot will pan out? Will people who traditionally vote Lab/Con then also vote Green/UKIP stick to their traditional vote or will they be more willing to switch because an element of proportionality will exist? The main exception of course being Brecon and Radnor, where about 1 Lib Dem voter in 5 goes for Labour on the list. Extremely lucky for the Lib Dems this time that that proportion wasn't higher β 748 more electors making that switch and it would have been bye-bye Jane Dodds. I think the real reason is that Labour voters (mainly in Ystradgynlais area) lend their first vote to LDs as an anti-tory vote - but vote for their preferred choice on the list.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 5, 2023 20:59:34 GMT
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Apr 7, 2023 15:53:59 GMT
I suspect the boundaries used are fairly well set now - given that there will be only small tweaks to the revised proposals.... So guys what constituencies on the new map are going to be twinned for the election in 2026?
Secondly I thought there was some suggestion that the gender parity and zipping may be open to challenge (under equal ops legislation?) and that it might be in a second bill.
I can see that we might want to increase the number of ministers if there are more fields devolved, especially criminal justice, policing and the courts (as wanted by the majority in the Senedd)..... but am not keen on increasing the size of the executive even though the legislature is increasing.
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Post by greenhert on Apr 7, 2023 18:08:04 GMT
I suspect the boundaries used are fairly well set now - given that there will be only small tweaks to the revised proposals.... So guys what constituencies on the new map are going to be twinned for the election in 2026? Secondly I thought there was some suggestion that the gender parity and zipping may be open to challenge (under equal ops legislation?) and that it might be in a second bill. I can see that we might want to increase the number of ministers if there are more fields devolved, especially criminal justice, policing and the courts (as wanted by the majority in the Senedd)..... but am not keen on increasing the size of the executive even though the legislature is increasing. The twinnings will likely include: Ceredigion & Pembrokeshire (i.e. Ceredigion & North Pembrokeshire and Mid & South Pembrokeshire) Both Carmarthenshire constituencies Ynys Mon & Bangor Monmouthshire & Torfaen Unfortunately it will not be possible to keep both Powys constituencies twinned together, since Ynys Mon will not be exempt from the pairings under this plan. This means we could end up with Brecon & Radnorshire being paired with parts of Swansea and Neath....
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Apr 7, 2023 20:12:23 GMT
I would have thought Brecon and Radnorshire is more likely to be paired with Mommouthshire - there was a proposal at one point for a Brecon, Radnor and Abergavenny seat....
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Post by greenhert on Apr 7, 2023 20:29:49 GMT
I would have thought Brecon and Radnorshire is more likely to be paired with Mommouthshire - there was a proposal at one point for a Brecon, Radnor and Abergavenny seat.... Not great either but better than being paired with Neath and part of Swansea.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Apr 7, 2023 20:42:38 GMT
I suspect the pairings would be as follows
northern Wales with alternate pairings Ynys Mon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd Or Ynys Mon and Bangor Aberconwy
Bangor Aberconwy and Clwyd North Or Clwyd North and Clwyd East
Clwyd East and Alyn & Deeside Or Alyn & Deeside and Wrexham
Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr and Wrexham Or Montgomery & Glyndwr and Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Southern Wales
Ceredigion Preseli and Mid & South Pembrokeshire
Carmarthen and Llanelli
Gower & Swansea West and Swansea Central & North
Neath & Swansea East and Aberafan Porthcawl
Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan
Rhondda and Pontypridd
Merthyr Tydfil & Upper Cynon and Caerphilly
Cardiff North and Cardiff Cardiff West
Cardiff East and Cardiff South & Penarth
Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney and Torfaen
Newport East and Newport West & Islwyn
Brecon, Radnor & Cwm-tawe and Monmouthshire
A difficult task, an the boundaries will please no one. I suspect what ever pairing are chosen it will be a one time only one and the next election will be fought on different boundaries, probably completely decoupled from Westminster ones.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Apr 7, 2023 20:46:06 GMT
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,025
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Post by ilerda on Apr 7, 2023 21:59:51 GMT
Pairing constituencies is just so bloody stupid. Like beyond cretinous.
Youβre going to end with the most random hodgepodge of places lumped together because each half has to fit a 5% quota rather than having the entire constituency meet that quota as a whole.
Only the idiots in Welsh Labour could have seriously proposed such an absurd solution.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Apr 8, 2023 6:23:50 GMT
Well given that they are using Westminster constituencies as building blocks how else can you do it unless you want 3 members per Westminster constituency - which would remove meaningful proportionality. As I said its most likely a stop gap solution.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,706
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2023 6:47:47 GMT
Why not use / pair local authorities, with variable numbers of seats?
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Apr 8, 2023 7:00:29 GMT
If you look at the original proposals from the commission that was one of the solutions - though you would have to pair some of the authorities
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Apr 8, 2023 8:28:48 GMT
Well given that they are using Westminster constituencies as building blocks how else can you do it unless you want 3 members per Westminster constituency - which would remove meaningful proportionality. As I said its most likely a stop gap solution. I'd've thought Welsh Labour would like that one. One male member, one female member (much like their 1997 proposals), and one member from any of the other genders they have diagnosed since 1997.
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Post by π΄ββ οΈ Neath West π΄ββ οΈ on Apr 8, 2023 8:33:38 GMT
Why not use / pair local authorities, with variable numbers of seats? The problem is not so much pairing (I mean they could always go for a floor instead an overrepresent Merthyr Tydfil β Labour would like that) but that Cardiff is so large as to be entitled to an unwieldy number of seats. Swansea and Rhondda Cynon Taf could do with some trimming too.
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Post by greenhert on Apr 8, 2023 11:28:26 GMT
Why not use / pair local authorities, with variable numbers of seats? This would be much better, although significant differences in proportionality due to geographical considerations would be inevitable. With a 96 seat Senedd, here is what I believe such a solution would entail in terms of PR constituencies: Cardiff (10 seats) Swansea (7 seats) Newport (5 seats) Monmouthshire & Torfaen (6 seats) Blaenau Gwent & Caerphilly (8 seats) Merthyr & Rhondda (9 seats) Bridgend & Vale of Glamorgan (9 seats) Neath Port Talbot (5 seats) Carmarthenshire (6 seats) Ceredigion & Pembrokeshire (6 seats) Powys (4 seats) Flintshire (5 seats) Denbighshire & Wrexham (7 seats) Gwynedd, Conwy & Ynys Mon (9 seats)
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