Okay, I'm an idiot. I should have checked the
House of Commons Library.
But that actually lets me check how good my modelling was (37% Conservative no-shows, plus churn on the left with 15% of Labour and 25% of LD voters going to PC).
In 14 constituencies, I averaged an error of less than 2.5 percentage points in the four-way vote (all figures given as Lab/Con/PC/LD):
Swansea West (modelled 52/22/18/7; actual 52/22/18/8)
Cardiff South and Penarth (modelled 55/22/17/5; actual 57/24/15/4)
Pontypridd (modelled 50/24/26/0; actual 48/24/26/3)
Clwyd South (modelled 44/35/17/4; actual 46/33/18/3)
Vale of Glamorgan (modelled 49/42/9/0; actual 48/40/10/3)
Blaenau Gwent (modelled 59/17/20/4; actual 61/16/21/2)
Ogmore (modelled 53/22/21/4; actual 57/20/21/2)
Caerphilly (modelled 49/22/29/0; actual 49/18/30/3)
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (modelled 36/41/18/4; actual 35/38/23/4)
Torfaen (modelled 50/28/16/5; actual 54/29/12/5)
Aberavon (modelled 58/16/22/3; actual 55/15/25/5)
Islwyn (modelled 52/25/20/4; actual 55/21/22/3)
Cardiff West (modelled 53/21/21/5; actual 57/21/19/3)
Cynon Valley (modelled 57/18/22/3; actual 62/15/21/2)
In a further 13, I was within an average error of 3.75 percentage points:
Newport East (modelled 49/32/14/6; actual 50/34/9/7)
Preseli Pembrokeshire (modelled 40/39/17/4; actual 36/41/20/3)
(WRONG WINNER)Gower (modelled 47/32/16/5; actual 50/35/13/3)
Wrexham (modelled 42/36/17/4; actual 40/34/23/4)
Clwyd West (modelled 36/39/20/5; actual 30/44/21/4)
Vale of Clwyd (modelled 45/37/14/4; actual 42/43/12/3)
(WRONG WINNER)Bridgend (modelled 44/35/16/5; actual 50/34/13/3)
Rhondda (modelled 58/12/28/2; actual 59/7/34/1)
Alyn and Deeside (modelled 46/34/14/6; actual 52/34/8/7)
Neath (modelled 48/23/26/4; actual 52/18/29/2)
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (modelled 59/16/22/3; actual 66/13/19/2)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (modelled 22/27/51/0; actual 26/24/47/3)
Llanelli (modelled 45/24/31/0; actual 50/18/30/2)
In 10 of the remaining 13, I was within an average error of 5 percentage points:
Delyn (modelled 45/35/14/6; actual 51/36/8/4)
Cardiff North (modelled 51/28/15/6; actual 52/34/9/4)
Ceredigion (modelled 16/16/53/15; actual 12/17/60/11)
Newport West (modelled 47/33/14/6; actual 52/38/8/3)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd (modelled 14/25/61/0; actual 18/21/56/4)
Montgomeryshire (modelled 18/48/11/23; actual 15/49/18/17)
Cardiff Central (modelled 58/14/15/13; actual 51/15/13/21)
Brecon and Radnorshire (modelled 10/42/13/34; actual 17/44/7/31)
Monmouth (modelled 35/43/12/10; actual 37/50/7/6)
Swansea East (modelled 55/22/18/4; actual 64/15/16/5)
And in 3, I was way off โ must be something in the slate up there:
Arfon (modelled 33/11/56/0; actual 24/8/65/3)
Aberconwy (modelled 41/35/19/5; actual 26/43/28/3)
(WRONG WINNER)Ynys Mรดn (modelled 32/28/41/0; actual 20/21/57/2)