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Post by batman on Oct 28, 2024 12:58:01 GMT
The only similarity between Crewe & Nantwich then and Runcorn & Helsby is that they are in Cheshire. Crewe & Nantwich could reasonably have been called 'red wall' in 2008, if such a term existed then. It resisted the Tories in 1983. Similarly, Runcorn & Helsby would have stayed Labour in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019. Are Labour any more popular now than they were in 2008? Both in terms of their showing in national polls and the PMs popularity? I believe Labour are less popular than they were at the time of the 2008 Crewe & Nantwich by-election. This next budget may be Labour's version of the 2012 Omnishambles budget. Again, the Tories recovered from that, so all is not lost for Labour. But there are certainly parallels here. I think Labour will hold any by-election here if it happens due to split opposition, a la Peterborough in 2019. Runcorn is too strong for Labour for this to fall, and the Tories and Reform will scrap it out over who is best placed to beat Labour. I think Jonathan Ashworth will be the candidate here and he will scrape home by a few hundred over Reform. No. The Red Wall does/did not include seats which were won by the Tories in 2010 & 2015, despite this seat's failure to vote Conservative in the 1980s. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2024 13:00:39 GMT
Crewe & Nantwich could reasonably have been called 'red wall' in 2008, if such a term existed then. It resisted the Tories in 1983. Similarly, Runcorn & Helsby would have stayed Labour in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019. Are Labour any more popular now than they were in 2008? Both in terms of their showing in national polls and the PMs popularity? I believe Labour are less popular than they were at the time of the 2008 Crewe & Nantwich by-election. This next budget may be Labour's version of the 2012 Omnishambles budget. Again, the Tories recovered from that, so all is not lost for Labour. But there are certainly parallels here. I think Labour will hold any by-election here if it happens due to split opposition, a la Peterborough in 2019. Runcorn is too strong for Labour for this to fall, and the Tories and Reform will scrap it out over who is best placed to beat Labour. I think Jonathan Ashworth will be the candidate here and he will scrape home by a few hundred over Reform. No. The Red Wall does/did not include seats which were won by the Tories in 2010 & 2015, despite this seat's failure to vote Conservative in the 1980s. If the term existed in 2008. Labour should hold on to Runcorn. As Pete Whitehead says, it's pretty Scouse. A right-wing party won't win it. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 28, 2024 13:14:43 GMT
Crewe & Nantwich could reasonably have been called 'red wall' in 2008, if such a term existed then. It resisted the Tories in 1983. Similarly, Runcorn & Helsby would have stayed Labour in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019. Are Labour any more popular now than they were in 2008? Both in terms of their showing in national polls and the PMs popularity? I believe Labour are less popular than they were at the time of the 2008 Crewe & Nantwich by-election. This next budget may be Labour's version of the 2012 Omnishambles budget. Again, the Tories recovered from that, so all is not lost for Labour. But there are certainly parallels here. I think Labour will hold any by-election here if it happens due to split opposition, a la Peterborough in 2019. Runcorn is too strong for Labour for this to fall, and the Tories and Reform will scrap it out over who is best placed to beat Labour. I think Jonathan Ashworth will be the candidate here and he will scrape home by a few hundred over Reform. No. The Red Wall does/did not include seats which were won by the Tories in 2010 & 2015, despite this seat's failure to vote Conservative in the 1980s. Pretty sure this would not have been a Conservative seat in 2010 or 2015. It might have been in 1983 |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2024 13:19:36 GMT
No. The Red Wall does/did not include seats which were won by the Tories in 2010 & 2015, despite this seat's failure to vote Conservative in the 1980s. Pretty sure this would not have been a Conservative seat in 2010 or 2015. It might have been in 1983 The claim was that Crewe & Nantwich wouldn't have been a red wall seat in 2008 had the term existed back then. I submit that, had the bullshit terminology been around that, it would have been thought of such. Sorry to ask this, but would you be able to do a 1983 notional for the new Runcorn seat? Labour won by 12% in 2019 - given greater Merseyside's drift to Labour in the 40 years after 1983, I think the Tories might have won it back then when they won Ellesmere Port & Neston. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 28, 2024 13:36:07 GMT
It looks bad. Pretty much the only thing that can save him from here is if the other bloke said "I'm going to kill your wife". There are copious reports of him having been stalked. Is this the person? Sorry seen this question up thread. Not sure how to delete my post in full. Press the (cogwheel and arrow) bottom right and follow the instructions. Very clear and easy. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 28, 2024 15:18:15 GMT
Pretty sure this would not have been a Conservative seat in 2010 or 2015. It might have been in 1983 The claim was that Crewe & Nantwich wouldn't have been a red wall seat in 2008 had the term existed back then. I submit that, had the bullshit terminology been around that, it would have been thought of such. Sorry to ask this, but would you be able to do a 1983 notional for the new Runcorn seat? Labour won by 12% in 2019 - given greater Merseyside's drift to Labour in the 40 years after 1983, I think the Tories might have won it back then when they won Ellesmere Port & Neston. I don;t have any figures from that area from that election. My instinct is the same as yours on this though. I guess Labour would have had a majority of 2-3000 in the parts of Runcorn which were then in Halton and a much smaller lead (if any) in the parts in Warrington South. That would have been outvoted by the almost third of the electorate (in Frodsham and Helsby etc) which were then in Eddisbury (a small part in Elton was in EP&N then). I suspect it would have gone Labour in 1987 though as there were substantial pro-Labour swings in all the donor seats |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 28, 2024 15:48:29 GMT
The only similarity between Crewe & Nantwich then and Runcorn & Helsby is that they are in Cheshire. Crewe & Nantwich could reasonably have been called 'red wall' in 2008, if such a term existed then. It resisted the Tories in 1983. Similarly, Runcorn & Helsby would have stayed Labour in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019. Are Labour any more popular now than they were in 2008? Both in terms of their showing in national polls and the PMs popularity? I believe Labour are less popular than they were at the time of the 2008 Crewe & Nantwich by-election. This next budget may be Labour's version of the 2012 Omnishambles budget. Again, the Tories recovered from that, so all is not lost for Labour. But there are certainly parallels here. I think Labour will hold any by-election here if it happens due to split opposition, a la Peterborough in 2019. Runcorn is too strong for Labour for this to fall, and the Tories and Reform will scrap it out over who is best placed to beat Labour. I think Jonathan Ashworth will be the candidate here and he will scrape home by a few hundred over Reform. I can only recommend visiting both seats. They are not similar. Industrial Cheshire towns are not all the same as each other. Runcorn isn't even the same as Widnes, other than that both are crap. Both of these seats have totally different currents, cultures and layouts. They look in different directions. They have totally different employment models. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2024 16:07:37 GMT
Crewe & Nantwich could reasonably have been called 'red wall' in 2008, if such a term existed then. It resisted the Tories in 1983. Similarly, Runcorn & Helsby would have stayed Labour in 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019. Are Labour any more popular now than they were in 2008? Both in terms of their showing in national polls and the PMs popularity? I believe Labour are less popular than they were at the time of the 2008 Crewe & Nantwich by-election. This next budget may be Labour's version of the 2012 Omnishambles budget. Again, the Tories recovered from that, so all is not lost for Labour. But there are certainly parallels here. I think Labour will hold any by-election here if it happens due to split opposition, a la Peterborough in 2019. Runcorn is too strong for Labour for this to fall, and the Tories and Reform will scrap it out over who is best placed to beat Labour. I think Jonathan Ashworth will be the candidate here and he will scrape home by a few hundred over Reform. I can only recommend visiting both seats. They are not similar. Industrial Cheshire towns are not all the same as each other. Runcorn isn't even the same as Widnes, other than that both are crap. Both of these seats have totally different currents, cultures and layouts. They look in different directions. They have totally different employment models. Cheshire is on the visit list. I've never been to the county. It might not start with Crewe. Or this seat, for that matter. Lyme (National Trust) I'd definitely trust. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 28, 2024 17:04:28 GMT
I can only recommend visiting both seats. They are not similar. Industrial Cheshire towns are not all the same as each other. Runcorn isn't even the same as Widnes, other than that both are crap. Both of these seats have totally different currents, cultures and layouts. They look in different directions. They have totally different employment models. Cheshire is on the visit list. I've never been to the county. It might not start with Crewe. Or this seat, for that matter. Lyme (National Trust) I'd definitely trust. Lyme Park is nice. Disley itself is a pretty decent place for a feed. |
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right
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Post by right on Oct 28, 2024 17:18:20 GMT
What are the routes to a by-election?
Resignation? Doesn't look like an MP much given to shame.
Standards Committee suspension? Labour can't fancy this by-election, they have an enormous majority on the Standards Committee and no one has said the Labour whipping operation is either shoddy or prone to scruples.
Conviction? One can't say the Prime Minister doesn't know his way around the CPS and they can quite easily decide on lesser charges without an outcry.
The Rayner tax compliance precedent could easily be applied if Labour don't fancy a by-election.
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Post by batman on Oct 28, 2024 17:36:21 GMT
No. The Red Wall does/did not include seats which were won by the Tories in 2010 & 2015, despite this seat's failure to vote Conservative in the 1980s. Pretty sure this would not have been a Conservative seat in 2010 or 2015. It might have been in 1983 I was referring to Crewe & Nantwich not Runcorn & Helsby. If you meant the former, apologies |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 28, 2024 17:42:56 GMT
What are the routes to a by-election? Resignation? Doesn't look like an MP much given to shame. Standards Committee suspension? Labour can't fancy this by-election, they have an enormous majority on the Standards Committee and no one has said the Labour whipping operation is either shoddy or prone to scruples. Conviction? One can't say the Prime Minister doesn't know his way around the CPS and they can quite easily decide on lesser charges without an outcry. The Rayner tax compliance precedent could easily be applied if Labour don't fancy a by-election. Conspiracy alert!! Yes, MPs of all parties hesitate to resign and have been happy to sit out the term if not compelled to leave. The Standards Committee attempts to reach consensual decisions on these matters and generally does. The chair is a Tory. The typical defence, that this wasn't anything to do with his position as an MP is ruled out by his own words in the exchange. But they will, of course, and correctly, wait until the police investigation and any court proceedings conclude. The suggestion that Starmer would lean on the CPS with impunity to achieve a lesser charge is ridiculous. Setting aside whether he'd wish to do it in the first place the risk of exposure, which would have terminal consequence, would be enough of a deterrent. And then we have Rayner's tax affairs again, with no evidence whatever of any interference. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 28, 2024 18:20:23 GMT
What are the routes to a by-election? Conviction? One can't say the Prime Minister doesn't know his way around the CPS and they can quite easily decide on lesser charges without an outcry. There is absolutely no way that Keir Starmer would be stupid enough to interfere in any way with any decision that the CPS would want to make, or that he would want to. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 28, 2024 18:57:35 GMT
What are the routes to a by-election? Resignation? Doesn't look like an MP much given to shame. Standards Committee suspension? Labour can't fancy this by-election, they have an enormous majority on the Standards Committee and no one has said the Labour whipping operation is either shoddy or prone to scruples. Conviction? One can't say the Prime Minister doesn't know his way around the CPS and they can quite easily decide on lesser charges without an outcry. The Rayner tax compliance precedent could easily be applied if Labour don't fancy a by-election. Yes, MPs of all parties hesitate to resign and have been happy to sit out the term if not compelled to leave. The Standards Committee attempts to reach consensual decisions on these matters and generally does. The chair is a Tory. The typical defence, that this wasn't anything to do with his position as an MP is ruled out by his own words in the exchange. But they will, of course, and correctly, wait until the police investigation and any court proceedings conclude. The suggestion that Starmer would lean on the CPS with impunity to achieve a lesser charge is ridiculous. Setting aside whether he'd wish to do it in the first place the risk of exposure, which would have terminal consequence, would be enough of a deterrent. And then we have Rayner's tax affairs again, with no evidence whatever of any interference. You’re either 12, or Keemstar has invaded the forum. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Oct 28, 2024 20:20:22 GMT
What are the routes to a by-election? Resignation? Doesn't look like an MP much given to shame. Standards Committee suspension? Labour can't fancy this by-election, they have an enormous majority on the Standards Committee and no one has said the Labour whipping operation is either shoddy or prone to scruples. Conviction? One can't say the Prime Minister doesn't know his way around the CPS and they can quite easily decide on lesser charges without an outcry. The Rayner tax compliance precedent could easily be applied if Labour don't fancy a by-election. Conspiracy alert!! Yes, MPs of all parties hesitate to resign and have been happy to sit out the term if not compelled to leave. The Standards Committee attempts to reach consensual decisions on these matters and generally does. The chair is a Tory. The typical defence, that this wasn't anything to do with his position as an MP is ruled out by his own words in the exchange. But they will, of course, and correctly, wait until the police investigation and any court proceedings conclude. The suggestion that Starmer would lean on the CPS with impunity to achieve a lesser charge is ridiculous. Setting aside whether he'd wish to do it in the first place the risk of exposure, which would have terminal consequence, would be enough of a deterrent. And then we have Rayner's tax affairs again, with no evidence whatever of any interference. If nothing happens, something's happened |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 28, 2024 21:08:58 GMT
Conspiracy alert!! Yes, MPs of all parties hesitate to resign and have been happy to sit out the term if not compelled to leave. The Standards Committee attempts to reach consensual decisions on these matters and generally does. The chair is a Tory. The typical defence, that this wasn't anything to do with his position as an MP is ruled out by his own words in the exchange. But they will, of course, and correctly, wait until the police investigation and any court proceedings conclude. The suggestion that Starmer would lean on the CPS with impunity to achieve a lesser charge is ridiculous. Setting aside whether he'd wish to do it in the first place the risk of exposure, which would have terminal consequence, would be enough of a deterrent. And then we have Rayner's tax affairs again, with no evidence whatever of any interference. A fairly standard conspiracy theorist opinion. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 28, 2024 22:14:59 GMT
If nothing happens, something's happened A fairly standard conspiracy theorist opinion. Emanating from a fairly standard conspiracy theorist? |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Oct 29, 2024 10:03:17 GMT
No. The Red Wall does/did not include seats which were won by the Tories in 2010 & 2015, despite this seat's failure to vote Conservative in the 1980s. If the term existed in 2008. Labour should hold on to Runcorn. As Pete Whitehead says, it's pretty Scouse. A right-wing party won't win it. Possibly a Corbynite Labour Independent would poll well here in a by election. |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 29, 2024 10:35:12 GMT
If the term existed in 2008. Labour should hold on to Runcorn. As Pete Whitehead says, it's pretty Scouse. A right-wing party won't win it. Possibly a Corbynite Labour Independent would poll well here in a by election. Certainly if Ashworth chooses a candidate - he is an annoying little man. |
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Raddy on Oct 29, 2024 11:22:23 GMT
The problem with those using insults like 'conspiracy theorist' to shut down debate is that it now has the same affect as the left calling somebody a racist, fascist, misogynist etc, namely the purveyor is ridiculed as a deluded idiot, , and the intention of the insult is completely ignored by psychologically balanced people
Using terms like conspiracy theorist as an insult, often shows with the passage of time that the conspiracy is valid, highlighting the naivety and gormlessness of the accuser. Their gullibility in believing everything they are told because of some sort of bizarre party loyalty, and because it is told to them by somebody on their side of the political narrative is the real problem.
The one thing political debate in the UK highlights in graphic detail these days, is how so many political idealogues and activists really shouldn't be allowed out on their own.
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