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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 20, 2021 10:56:57 GMT
I'm confused - there's no Hillside ward up this week; but equally, Hillside (Adur) next week doesn't have a significantly split vote. My mistake. You're right - it's next week. I was referring to May where the Tories got 50% and Labour and Green combined got 49%. Yes, I've realised the confusion and posted in next week's thread - the Green vote is wrong, it should be 89 not 338. It's not Tony's fault, the council website has it wrong. They just duplicated the Labour figure. If you look back at the preious ward results, you'll see it would be quite astonishing for the Greens to get up to 338. |
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Post by shadsy on Nov 22, 2021 10:53:31 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Nov 23, 2021 14:42:23 GMT
They all count on Thursday evening except Hambleton DC - Raskelf & White Horse Ward which be at 10am Friday
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 23, 2021 21:26:56 GMT
On the general by-elections thread, I noted that I'd been working on a model to evaluate whether each party has had a good night or bad night each week. Following some suggestions from tonyhill , I've modified it slightly, and the model seems to pass the eye test. Part of the process is to determine the importance of each seat - which can vary for each party - on a scale of 0-100. So, for the first time, using model 1.1, here are the Party Index (importance) figures for this week's elections. PI figures from 0-25 (i.e. unimportant) have a white background, 26-50 (not too important) are green; 51-75 (important), yellow; 76-90 (very important), orange; 91-100 (crucial), red. I shall post the good week/bad week figures after all the results are in (some time Friday, after Hambleton has reported) | | Con | Lab | LDm | Grn | | Allerdale (Maryport South) | 11 | 41 | | | | Basildon (Lee Chapel North) | 41 | 58 | 12 | | | Halton (Halton Castle) | 13 | 53 | 9 | 2 | | Hambleton (Raskelf & White Horse) | 56 | | 23 | 5 | | Lancaster (Carnforth & Millhead) | 48 | 28 | 2 | 9 | | Newcastle-under-Lyme (Knutton) | 58 | 80 | | | | Nuneaton & Bedworth (Bar Pool) | 38 | 40 | | 9 | | Tunbridge Wells (Speldhurst & Bidborough) | 72 | 19 | 20 | 22 | | Wandsworth (Bedford) | 54 | 57 | 16 | 19 | | West Suffolk (Horringer) | 58 | 16 | 5 | | | Wigan (Bryn) | 5 | 15 | 3 | | | Wirral (Oxton) | 12 | 26 | 55 | 10 | | Average | 39 | 39 | 16 | 11 | | Total | 466 | 432 | 144 | 76 |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Nov 23, 2021 21:39:48 GMT
Something slighty off with Tunbridge Wells - no Grn or LDm candidates are standing there.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 23, 2021 22:22:15 GMT
Something slighty off with Tunbridge Wells - no Grn or LDm candidates are standing there. No, a party can still get a score even if they don't have a candidate, based on whether they've stood, or even won, previously in the ward, or have representation on the council. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 25, 2021 1:34:46 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 25, 2021 5:00:28 GMT
the decade isn't two and a half years old yet? Was that supposed to read century?
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Post by tonyhill on Nov 25, 2021 6:32:32 GMT
I'm intterested to see the convergence between jamesdoyle's model and mine. I've got the Conservatives gaining Basildon, Nuneaton, and TWA gaining Tunbridge Wells today on the basis of the accumulated results from the beginning of September. Where my metric won't work though is if there has been a movement away from one of the parties recently, which in the case of the Conservatives at the moment is quite possible.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Nov 25, 2021 7:33:16 GMT
Just to reiterate, my model isn't intended to be predictive, only a small element of the calculation is based on pay performance in the ward. My model is trying at this stage (pre-election) to measure how important the seat is to a party; how an activist can choose where to go to help, if you like.
Post-election, that plus the result will estimate how well each party has done.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Nov 25, 2021 9:19:54 GMT
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 25, 2021 10:19:59 GMT
They definitely don't give it that treatment while waiting for a delayed service on the single-track East Suffolk line to Sizewell. I've seen the driver out on the platform having a chat with a couple of kids fascinated by the noisy, hulking old diesel.
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 25, 2021 11:23:54 GMT
I delivered them as one article, they published them as one article. Next week's previews will be delivered as one article too. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 25, 2021 22:57:28 GMT
HALTON Halton Castle
THORNTON, Sharon Anne (Labour) 373
FERGUSON, Iain James (Green) 117
WHYTE, Darrin David (Independent) 69
CLARKE, Danny (Conservative) 45
DALTON, Anthony James Johnson (Liberal Democrat) 15
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Post by bjornhattan on Nov 25, 2021 23:00:26 GMT
Tories gain Knutton with a 26% swing.
Edit: Exact figures appear to be
Con 188
Lab 180
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 25, 2021 23:02:35 GMT
ALLERDALE; Maryport South
PEGRAM, Bill (Labour) 273
GALLETLY, Eric (Independent) 149
NEWTON, Steve (Conservative) 94
Turnout 17.0%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2021 23:04:30 GMT
Tories gain Knutton with a 26% swing. Edit: Exact figures appear to be Con 188 Lab 180 I suppose that's closer than it might have been |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 25, 2021 23:08:41 GMT
Tories gain Knutton with a 26% swing. Edit: Exact figures appear to be Con 188 Lab 180 I suppose that's closer than it might have been Never a truer word was spoken |
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 25, 2021 23:15:26 GMT
Maryport South (Allerdale) by-election result:
LAB: 52.9% (+10.2)
IND: 28.9% (-10.5)
CON: 18.2% (+11.4)
Labour GAIN from Independent.
Chgs. w/ 2019
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 25, 2021 23:15:46 GMT
Bar Pool (Nuneaton & Bedworth) by-election result:
CON: 55.3% (+14.4)
LAB: 23.4% (-26.7)
GRN: 21.3% (+12.2)
Conservative GAIN from Labour.
Chgs. w/ 2018
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