carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 28, 2021 1:02:25 GMT
Can we get a poll on this thread and North Shropshire? 'Have', please. Not 'get'! |
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 28, 2021 6:31:58 GMT
You can't have your poll & get it too.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2021 11:25:54 GMT
Can we get a poll on this thread and North Shropshire? Why? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 29, 2021 11:14:06 GMT
Funny to read about this new app. Whereve they been for last 3 years. Tbf suppose it shows money and intent that they got it. Also damn 90% is pretty good. I've never been in campaign with higher than 70% coverage. I might have without seeing the data but whenever ive had a peak its never been higher than that. In 2015 92% of Hallam residents reported being contacted but that was a 2 year campaign. Is this bullshit? I read that as them having knocked on over 90% of doors in the seat, which equates to a much lower contact rate. I've known wards which got their contact rate up into the 80s, but that took a really intensive campaign all year round for years on end. That was in an area with a high rate of churn, so possibly in more settled areas you could get slightly higher. |
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Post by mysticrobin on Nov 29, 2021 11:43:34 GMT
How many folks answered their door to them?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 29, 2021 12:00:09 GMT
How many folks answered their door to them? Exactly, easy enough (with enough bodies) to knock on 90% of doors, even with all the WFH, 50% will be out/inaccessible (flats etc), you speak to one person per property (most of the time) some will tell you politely or otherwise to go away/mind your own business. Even those who you have a conversation with can only really speak for themselves - husbands don't always know how their wife's vote, likewise for children etc. Refrom being a 'new' party will also struggle with name recognition so may find their results to have an even widder margin of error than than Con/Lab/LD/Green would. I'd be amazed if Reform have more than 8-10% canvass data and in any campaign things move, so a lot of it will be out of date by now. |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 29, 2021 12:53:09 GMT
Funny to read about this new app. Whereve they been for last 3 years. Tbf suppose it shows money and intent that they got it. Also damn 90% is pretty good. I've never been in campaign with higher than 70% coverage. I might have without seeing the data but whenever ive had a peak its never been higher than that. In 2015 92% of Hallam residents reported being contacted but that was a 2 year campaign. Is this bullshit? I read that as them having knocked on over 90% of doors in the seat, which equates to a much lower contact rate. I've known wards which got their contact rate up into the 80s, but that took a really intensive campaign all year round for years on end. That was in an area with a high rate of churn, so possibly in more settled areas you could get slightly higher. I can recall hitting 80% contact in Cambridge a couple of times. But that was in a suburban, fairly homogenous ward with few flats, and those there were had their own entrances. That took two complete canvasses and a third in target areas. And even that figure allowed for at least some "speaking for others in the household". True, it was pre-phone canvassing. Very hard to get as high as that over a short campaign in a more mixed housing stock, I'd say. The ones we missed we reckoned to be a combination of folk with odd hours, recluses, vacant properties, and those utterly determined not to answer a door. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2021 13:22:12 GMT
For those who canvass, does your contact rate tend to match up with the final turnout in a seat?
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on Nov 29, 2021 13:34:08 GMT
If the Tories do lose this or even come close to it then the threats to Johnson’s leadership will really step up you’d think
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 29, 2021 13:34:15 GMT
Funny to read about this new app. Whereve they been for last 3 years. Tbf suppose it shows money and intent that they got it. Also damn 90% is pretty good. I've never been in campaign with higher than 70% coverage. I might have without seeing the data but whenever ive had a peak its never been higher than that. In 2015 92% of Hallam residents reported being contacted but that was a 2 year campaign. Is this bullshit? I read that as them having knocked on over 90% of doors in the seat, which equates to a much lower contact rate. I've known wards which got their contact rate up into the 80s, but that took a really intensive campaign all year round for years on end. That was in an area with a high rate of churn, so possibly in more settled areas you could get slightly higher. I find the idea of a 90% contact rate highly improbable. We worked our ward hard for 20 years with annual elections for most of that time and I reckon there were at least 10% of doors at which we had never, ever had someone answer. But then, there is no area of electioneering where more bollocks is spouted about (and during) than canvassing.  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 29, 2021 13:35:54 GMT
How many folks answered their door to them? Exactly, easy enough (with enough bodies) to knock on 90% of doors, even with all the WFH, 50% will be out/inaccessible (flats etc), you speak to one person per property (most of the time) some will tell you politely or otherwise to go away/mind your own business. Even those who you have a conversation with can only really speak for themselves - husbands don't always know how their wife's vote, likewise for children etc. Refrom being a 'new' party will also struggle with name recognition so may find their results to have an even widder margin of error than than Con/Lab/LD/Green would. I'd be amazed if Reform have more than 8-10% canvass data and in any campaign things move, so a lot of it will be out of date by now. And are they using experienced, well briefed canvassers? |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 29, 2021 13:49:18 GMT
And are they using experienced, well briefed canvassers? Very doubtful. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 29, 2021 14:03:29 GMT
However, it certainly seems like something has spooked the Tories. The amount of manpower and paper they are deploying is like nothing I've seen from them before (including when I was a member and cchq staff), but the fact they refused to allow the BBC journo to follow them doorknocking tells you quite a lot about what response they must be getting... If I were leading a canvassing team (and I'd led quite a few in the constituency) the last thing I'd want is some BBC journalist tagging along and getting in the way of an efficient operation. And they really wouldn't want to hear my views about the rubbish BBC signal on Freeview (here it gets poor in very hot weather or if a helicopter is in the area) which is a lesser angle on the licence fee debate. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 29, 2021 14:34:10 GMT
And are they using experienced, well briefed canvassers? Very doubtful. However sophisticated an App they have, rubbish in = rubbish out. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 30, 2021 18:11:43 GMT
Funny to read about this new app. Whereve they been for last 3 years. Tbf suppose it shows money and intent that they got it. Also damn 90% is pretty good. I've never been in campaign with higher than 70% coverage. I might have without seeing the data but whenever ive had a peak its never been higher than that. In 2015 92% of Hallam residents reported being contacted but that was a 2 year campaign. Is this bullshit? Well, to be fair, if you knock on doors during the day (when few people are in) or after dark (when few open the door). Then knocking on 90% of doors only takes a little longer than delivering leaflets to 100% of doors. This is not a good time of year for doorstep canvassing. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 30, 2021 22:36:24 GMT
According to Twitter, here are the latest odds for this by-election:
Not surprised at Conservative chances being as high as 1/14.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Dec 1, 2021 0:13:53 GMT
Slight Lib Dem drift in Shropshire, out from twos.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Dec 1, 2021 2:41:12 GMT
For those who canvass, does your contact rate tend to match up with the final turnout in a seat?
It's hard to compare, because polling day is a fixed point in time, whereas canvass data is generally the aggregation of many months of work, some of which will be recent and/or accurate, and some less recent and less robust.
Voters move, voters die; Voters sometimes even lie.
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Post by pinkglover on Dec 1, 2021 9:09:23 GMT
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Post by phil156 on Dec 1, 2021 17:42:59 GMT
They will count this on Thursday night and I understand it be live on GB News starting at 10pm
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