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Post by greenchristian on Apr 16, 2022 16:35:37 GMT
A very *brave* prediction, minister. Isn’t it quite likely that the Conservatives will incur biggish seat losses without losing many councils? I'd say it's quite unlikely. There are several councils already mentioned in this thread where it would be plausible for them to lose control even if they only suffer minor net losses nationally. For them to lose control of no councils whilst losing around 800 seats nationally (not including Scotland, as the model apparently does) is insanely unlikely. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 16, 2022 16:44:24 GMT
Maybe, but 0 is quite unlikely. Somerset, for the instance. It's a new council, so won't be a loss. It's called Somerset County Council and uses the current county divisions. It is very wierd to argue it's a new council. |
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Post by owainsutton on Apr 16, 2022 16:54:02 GMT
With regard to the poll on this thread, is it not mathematically impossible for the Conservatives to win control here? Yes. The only possible outcomes are Labour control or NOC. |
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Post by Ports on Apr 16, 2022 16:54:07 GMT
Maybe, but 0 is quite unlikely. Somerset, for the instance. Yes. I haven’t looked at each council. Somerset, Wandsworth, Worcester, Southampton maybe. Are there other likely council losses? I would hardly call Southampton likely. Yes it would only take a two seat loss to put Conservatives in a minority, but even that's not guaranteed. I share your overall sentiment though. |
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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Apr 16, 2022 19:28:42 GMT
With regard to the poll on this thread, is it not mathematically impossible for the Conservatives to win control here? Yes. The only possible outcomes are Labour control or NOC. All right, all right! I've amended the poll.  |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 17, 2022 15:40:28 GMT
Maybe, but 0 is quite unlikely. Somerset, for the instance. Yes. I haven’t looked at each council. Somerset, Wandsworth, Worcester, Southampton maybe. Are there other likely council losses? I have another one, which is debatable, but I assume BBC and other sources will call it a Lab GAIN from Con. Worthing (through, it became NOC thanks to a by-election). |
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Post by owainsutton on Apr 19, 2022 17:29:28 GMT
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Post by lancsscott on Apr 28, 2022 13:54:56 GMT
Safe seats
Bank Hall - Safe Labour
Daneshouse with Stoneyholme – safe Labour
Queensgate – Safe Labour.
Briercliffe – Safe Lib Dem
Gannow – Safe BPIP
Hapton with Park – safe Conservative – but worth noting it looks like Tom Commis has been deselected for Jamie McGowan who everyone knows tries to be Alan Hosker’s puppet master. Is this the beginning of the end for Alan? Conservatives don’t know what to do with him because he is a loose cannon but the votes are personal to him not the party and so he is currently in the driving seat. Could also be the start of the local party trying to remove the banker that was parachuted in in 2019 and became MP. Oh to be a fly on the wall at association meetings.
Trinity – Safe Green
Worth a look
Lanehead – Sue Graham who rumour has it was deselected from safe Queensgate and has been deployed here. Sue Graham is deeply unpopular with the public because she is very bullish about building on green spaces with low quality housing at all costs. Would usually have this as Safe Labour but Lib Dems have been fliting with it on and off and a former education site which is so rich environmentally was opposed by local residents but Sue was once again the flag bearer for the bulldozers. So it is possible a very silly mistake by Labour to move Sue here.
Rosehill with Burnley Wood – shock Tory gain last year but a very inactive Lib Dem councillor with little recognition. Say what you want about Lib Dems but Jeff Sumner is will known and liked. I think it should be an easy hold for Jeff but given last year’s results (he also lost his County seat) I mention here.
Coal Clough with Deerplay – With the BPIP pressure absent this year this should be an easier hold and the candidate is Gordon Birtwistle (former MP). But Labour have been working it (well for Burnley Labour standards) with the same candidate for some time so haven’t moved back to safe just yet.
Ones to watch
Brunshaw – Greens won last year. Money is on them as they continue to work it. But Labour have shipped in activists from all round the country and if electorate move to Tories because they are emboldened by their second place last year, could be a surprise sneak through the middle for Labour. Interesting question here about how Brexit and Boris Tories, as opposed to traditional Conservative voters, react to the party and all their various scandals.
Cliviger – Really interesting race. Traditional Tories who are unimpressed by the lawless mob running the country could be Ivor Emo’s downfall here. The Greens have been working it hard. Too close to call.
Gawthorpe – Karen won it for the Tories last year. Not too sure about this as seems like a very weird choice of candidate with someone who doesn’t live in Padiham. Together with the national narrative could put this back to Labour. So a Labour hold with a new candidate is where I am falling on this.
Rosegrove with Lowerhouse – this will be a fight between BPIP, Tories and Labour. I think BPIP will do it this year as they have moved in James Anderson who has a bit of a personal vote but together with Lorraine’s hard work in this ward should get them over the line.
Whittlefield with Ightenhill – Whilst the win for the Conservatives was surprisingly convincing last year, this ward is a real mixed bag and will always be in the ones to watch. I think this could be the year the Greens take it but as ever it feels like anyone (but Labour!) can win this on the day.
After the election I expect the council to look something like:
Labour – 15 or 16
Lib Dem – 8 or 9
Conservative – 7 or 8
Green – 7 or 8
BPIP – 6
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Post by lancastrian on May 4, 2022 0:40:43 GMT
Not much to add to the above, except to note that the Green candidate for Whittlefield with Ightenhill was a Conservative councillor until last year for the Cliviger with Worsthorne ward (on the opposite side of the town) and after being deselected by the Conservatives stood there for the Burnley and Padiham Independents before joining the Greens, all within the span of less than a year. This was the Greens main target seat a couple of years ago, whether it still is after another defeat last year and the wins in Brunshaw and Cliviger I don't know. The Tory win last year was surprisingly comfortable, but the Greens successes so far have been against complacent Labour councillors in very safe wards and with a NIMBY platform against the Tories, neither of which apply in this case as far as I know.
I'm going to be boring and predict a relatively quiet election for Burnley this time, Greens to make one, maybe two gains, no other changes.
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unrepentantfool
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Post by unrepentantfool on May 4, 2022 4:13:29 GMT
Not much to add to the above, except to note that the Green candidate for Whittlefield with Ightenhill was a Conservative councillor until last year for the Cliviger with Worsthorne ward (on the opposite side of the town) and after being deselected by the Conservatives stood there for the Burnley and Padiham Independents before joining the Greens, all within the span of less than a year. This was the Greens main target seat a couple of years ago, whether it still is after another defeat last year and the wins in Brunshaw and Cliviger I don't know. The Tory win last year was surprisingly comfortable, but the Greens successes so far have been against complacent Labour councillors in very safe wards and with a NIMBY platform against the Tories, neither of which apply in this case as far as I know. I'm going to be boring and predict a relatively quiet election for Burnley this time, Greens to make one, maybe two gains, no other changes. I've been once or twice in the last few weeks from Preston and I've only seen one stakeboard (BPIP in Gannow, nearish the George IV), so I think your estimation of a quiet election is pretty accurate tbh. It might be interesting to see what happens in Hapton and the rest of Padiham now Boris and Brexit are not driving people in the estates round there out to vote. |
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Post by ideal4radio on May 4, 2022 18:35:25 GMT
At present, Labour's 17 Councillors comprise 7 White members and 10 from the Pakistani heritage Community ... With Sue Graham's deselection from safe Queensgate to be replaced by an Asian heritage Candidate, and potential losses elsewhere, this balance looks likely to tip further. The 2011 Census has Burnley as having 10.1% Asian Heritage population, but I suspect this will have risen.
Labour need to be really careful here that they don't get tagged as the " Asians " party, as has happened in adjoining Pendle. This would neither be good for Labour, nor the town of Burnley.
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Post by unrepentantfool on May 4, 2022 19:44:59 GMT
At present, Labour's 17 Councillors comprise 7 White members and 10 from the Pakistani heritage Community ... With Sue Graham's deselection from safe Queensgate to be replaced by an Asian heritage Candidate, and potential losses elsewhere, this balance looks likely to tip further. The 2011 Census has Burnley as having 10.1% Asian Heritage population, but I suspect this will have risen. Labour need to be really careful here that they don't get tagged as the " Asians " party, as has happened in adjoining Pendle. This would neither be good for Labour, nor the town of Burnley. I mean, Labour's support is highest in the most heavily Asian areas of town like Daneshouse and Stoneyholme, so they have to ensure they are represented by Asians in at least some of their areas. But, if the councillor makeup is overwhelmingly Asian, that won't go down well in areas like Cliviger and Padiham, yes. They never were popular in the former, so they won't give a flying fudge about it, but Padiham holds potential for them, they have to step carefully. |
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tomc
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Post by tomc on May 4, 2022 20:02:17 GMT
At present, Labour's 17 Councillors comprise 7 White members and 10 from the Pakistani heritage Community ... With Sue Graham's deselection from safe Queensgate to be replaced by an Asian heritage Candidate, and potential losses elsewhere, this balance looks likely to tip further. The 2011 Census has Burnley as having 10.1% Asian Heritage population, but I suspect this will have risen. Labour need to be really careful here that they don't get tagged as the " Asians " party, as has happened in adjoining Pendle. This would neither be good for Labour, nor the town of Burnley. Labour appear to think the white voters of Burnley much more racist than is the case as is evident not only by their disinclination to stand Asian candidates outside 'Asian' areas but also to use Asian activists to canvass and leaflet outside those areas. I'm led to believe c90% of the activist base is Asian so they are missing out on lots of legwork and potential candidates. |
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Post by owainsutton on May 4, 2022 20:03:50 GMT
If the leaflet said that, you'd give us a picture.
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Post by ideal4radio on May 6, 2022 12:35:20 GMT
Currently Lab 18, Con 9, L/D 8, BPIP 5, Green 5 ... Lab/LD joint administration. Defending will be Lab 7, Con 3, L/D 3, BPIP 1, Green 1 Labour will be safe in Daneshouse with Stoneyholme, Queensgate, Bank Hall and probably Lanehead. Paul Campbell may be vulnerable to a Green surge in Brunshaw, and may possibly lose Gawthorpe to the Conservatives. In this years contests, Labour held Rosegrove with Lowerhouse narrowly, with 34 votes separating them from the Conservatives, who were 1 vote ahead of the local Independents, the BPIP ... this must be classed as marginal. If they stand again, L/D's Gordon Birtwistle & Gordon Lishman should retain their seats ( Lishman stood in both 1974 GE's as a Liberal in Bradford North ), but they may struggle to retain Jeff Sumner's Rosehill & Burnleywood seat. The Conservatives should retain Hapton with Park, but will face a strong Green challenge in both Cliviger with Worsthorne & Whittlefield with Ightenhill. I expect both the sole defenders for the Greens and BPIP to retain their seats in Trinity & Gannow respectively ... Having said all this, I wouldn't be surprised if not one seat changes hands in 2022 ! Having made this prediction in early August last year, the only seat to change hands was the Green gain in Cliviger with Worsthorne, where Cllr. Ivor Emo lost his seat. With the exception of Alan Hosker ( Hapton with Park ), Emo was probably the hardest working Councillor in Burnley, clearing footpaths and re-establishing verges with friends in his spare time. He even hired a jet-washer to spruce up the Boundary stones in the area at his own expense. Sad when good hard working people, of all political stripes, get swept away by factors that have nowt to do with their own performance ! |
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 6, 2022 13:17:24 GMT
Currently Lab 18, Con 9, L/D 8, BPIP 5, Green 5 ... Lab/LD joint administration. Defending will be Lab 7, Con 3, L/D 3, BPIP 1, Green 1 Labour will be safe in Daneshouse with Stoneyholme, Queensgate, Bank Hall and probably Lanehead. Paul Campbell may be vulnerable to a Green surge in Brunshaw, and may possibly lose Gawthorpe to the Conservatives. In this years contests, Labour held Rosegrove with Lowerhouse narrowly, with 34 votes separating them from the Conservatives, who were 1 vote ahead of the local Independents, the BPIP ... this must be classed as marginal. If they stand again, L/D's Gordon Birtwistle & Gordon Lishman should retain their seats ( Lishman stood in both 1974 GE's as a Liberal in Bradford North ), but they may struggle to retain Jeff Sumner's Rosehill & Burnleywood seat. The Conservatives should retain Hapton with Park, but will face a strong Green challenge in both Cliviger with Worsthorne & Whittlefield with Ightenhill. I expect both the sole defenders for the Greens and BPIP to retain their seats in Trinity & Gannow respectively ... Having said all this, I wouldn't be surprised if not one seat changes hands in 2022 ! Sad when good hard working people, of all political stripes, get swept away by factors that have nowt to do with their own performance ! Indeed, but we all need to be far more vociferous in calling out: - voters for being fucking stupid and/or wilfully cruel - the media for constantly enabling and encouraging said stupidity and cruelty Many of the votes cast yesterday - from all sides of the political spectrum - were based on factors other than local governance. This is a deep flaw in both process and system. |
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Post by lancsscott on May 6, 2022 17:32:52 GMT
Currently Lab 18, Con 9, L/D 8, BPIP 5, Green 5 ... Lab/LD joint administration. Defending will be Lab 7, Con 3, L/D 3, BPIP 1, Green 1 Labour will be safe in Daneshouse with Stoneyholme, Queensgate, Bank Hall and probably Lanehead. Paul Campbell may be vulnerable to a Green surge in Brunshaw, and may possibly lose Gawthorpe to the Conservatives. In this years contests, Labour held Rosegrove with Lowerhouse narrowly, with 34 votes separating them from the Conservatives, who were 1 vote ahead of the local Independents, the BPIP ... this must be classed as marginal. If they stand again, L/D's Gordon Birtwistle & Gordon Lishman should retain their seats ( Lishman stood in both 1974 GE's as a Liberal in Bradford North ), but they may struggle to retain Jeff Sumner's Rosehill & Burnleywood seat. The Conservatives should retain Hapton with Park, but will face a strong Green challenge in both Cliviger with Worsthorne & Whittlefield with Ightenhill. I expect both the sole defenders for the Greens and BPIP to retain their seats in Trinity & Gannow respectively ... Having said all this, I wouldn't be surprised if not one seat changes hands in 2022 ! Having made this prediction in early August last year, the only seat to change hands was the Green gain in Cliviger with Worsthorne, where Cllr. Ivor Emo lost his seat. With the exception of Alan Hosker ( Hapton with Park ), Emo was probably the hardest working Councillor in Burnley, clearing footpaths and re-establishing verges with friends in his spare time. He even hired a jet-washer to spruce up the Boundary stones in the area at his own expense. Sad when good hard working people, of all political stripes, get swept away by factors that have nowt to do with their own performance ! Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't it Parish council work that Ivor claimed credit for? And wasn’t he paid for the verges by the Parish council? Fundamentally being a councillor is also about holding the administration running the council to account and he barely spoke in council meetings and when he was on the executive he just used to say “I’ll get back to you” to every question and crucially never did. Plus he lost his seat to the Greens who are by far tge most proactive party in Burnley. So there are two sides to everyone story |
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Post by owainsutton on May 6, 2022 17:38:24 GMT
Clearing footpaths, re-establishing verges, excellent work.
Did he keep in contact with residents about it?
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Post by ideal4radio on May 6, 2022 21:30:28 GMT
Having made this prediction in early August last year, the only seat to change hands was the Green gain in Cliviger with Worsthorne, where Cllr. Ivor Emo lost his seat. With the exception of Alan Hosker ( Hapton with Park ), Emo was probably the hardest working Councillor in Burnley, clearing footpaths and re-establishing verges with friends in his spare time. He even hired a jet-washer to spruce up the Boundary stones in the area at his own expense. Sad when good hard working people, of all political stripes, get swept away by factors that have nowt to do with their own performance ! Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't it Parish council work that Ivor claimed credit for? And wasn’t he paid for the verges by the Parish council? Fundamentally being a councillor is also about holding the administration running the council to account and he barely spoke in council meetings and when he was on the executive he just used to say “I’ll get back to you” to every question and crucially never did. Plus he lost his seat to the Greens who are by far the most proactive party in Burnley. So there are two sides to everyone story That's true, if your experience reflects other peoples, then that could explain his defeat, albeit by a narrow margin of 11 votes ( 892 - 881 ). I see he topped the local Parish Council election yesterday, with over 150 more votes than the next Candidate so at least his good works have not gone unappreciated .... I've just done some quick " bag of a fag packet " vote share figures, based on the last cycle in 2018 .. Labour 38.9% ( - 2.2% ) Conservative 26.1% ( + 8.3% ) Green 16.6% ( + 8.9% ) Lib Dem 12.9% ( - 1.7% ) BAPIP 5.4% ( - 2.6% ) UKIP/Others 0% ( -5.9% ) L/C/Gr. all had full slates, L/D's only stood in 6 seats ( 2018 - 9 ), BAPIP only stood in 3 seats ( 2018 - 6 ) |
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Post by Andrew_S on May 11, 2022 23:39:19 GMT
Burnley
Lab 7934
Con 5316
Grn 3387
LD 2611
Burnley & Padiham Inds 1101
Ind 34
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