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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Jul 30, 2021 13:40:52 GMT
Burnley
15/45 Up
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Post by ideal4radio on Aug 6, 2021 3:00:50 GMT
Currently Lab 18, Con 9, L/D 8, BPIP 5, Green 5 ... Lab/LD joint administration.
Defending will be Lab 7, Con 3, L/D 3, BPIP 1, Green 1
Labour will be safe in Daneshouse with Stoneyholme, Queensgate, Bank Hall and probably Lanehead. Paul Campbell may be vulnerable to a Green surge in Brunshaw, and may possibly lose Gawthorpe to the Conservatives. In this years contests, Labour held Rosegrove with Lowerhouse narrowly, with 34 votes separating them from the Conservatives, who were 1 vote ahead of the local Independents, the BPIP ... this must be classed as marginal.
If they stand again, L/D's Gordon Birtwistle & Gordon Lishman should retain their seats ( Lishman stood in both 1974 GE's as a Liberal in Bradford North ), but they may struggle to retain Jeff Sumner's Rosehill & Burnleywood seat.
The Conservatives should retain Hapton with Park, but will face a strong Green challenge in both Cliviger with Worsthorne & Whittlefield with Ightenhill. I expect both the sole defenders for the Greens and BPIP to retain their seats in Trinity & Gannow respectively ...
Having said all this, I wouldn't be surprised if not one seat changes hands in 2022 !
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Post by lackeroftalent on Aug 6, 2021 8:04:39 GMT
Currently Lab 18, Con 9, L/D 8, BPIP 5, Green 5 ... Lab/LD joint administration. Defending will be Lab 7, Con 3, L/D 3, BPIP 1, Green 1 Labour will be safe in Daneshouse with Stoneyholme, Queensgate, Bank Hall and probably Lanehead. Paul Campbell may be vulnerable to a Green surge in Brunshaw, and may possibly lose Gawthorpe to the Conservatives. In this years contests, Labour held Rosegrove with Lowerhouse narrowly, with 34 votes separating them from the Conservatives, who were 1 vote ahead of the local Independents, the BPIP ... this must be classed as marginal. If they stand again, L/D's Gordon Birtwistle & Gordon Lishman should retain their seats ( Lishman stood in both 1974 GE's as a Liberal in Bradford North ), but they may struggle to retain Jeff Sumner's Rosehill & Burnleywood seat. The Conservatives should retain Hapton with Park, but will face a strong Green challenge in both Cliviger with Worsthorne & Whittlefield with Ightenhill. I expect both the sole defenders for the Greens and BPIP to retain their seats in Trinity & Gannow respectively ... Having said all this, I wouldn't be surprised if not one seat changes hands in 2022 !Given the churn in Burnley in the last few years I find that prediction - bold. |
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Post by ideal4radio on Aug 6, 2021 8:52:24 GMT
Currently Lab 18, Con 9, L/D 8, BPIP 5, Green 5 ... Lab/LD joint administration. Defending will be Lab 7, Con 3, L/D 3, BPIP 1, Green 1 Labour will be safe in Daneshouse with Stoneyholme, Queensgate, Bank Hall and probably Lanehead. Paul Campbell may be vulnerable to a Green surge in Brunshaw, and may possibly lose Gawthorpe to the Conservatives. In this years contests, Labour held Rosegrove with Lowerhouse narrowly, with 34 votes separating them from the Conservatives, who were 1 vote ahead of the local Independents, the BPIP ... this must be classed as marginal. If they stand again, L/D's Gordon Birtwistle & Gordon Lishman should retain their seats ( Lishman stood in both 1974 GE's as a Liberal in Bradford North ), but they may struggle to retain Jeff Sumner's Rosehill & Burnleywood seat. The Conservatives should retain Hapton with Park, but will face a strong Green challenge in both Cliviger with Worsthorne & Whittlefield with Ightenhill. I expect both the sole defenders for the Greens and BPIP to retain their seats in Trinity & Gannow respectively ... Having said all this, I wouldn't be surprised if not one seat changes hands in 2022 !Given the churn in Burnley in the last few years I find that prediction - bold. I wouldn't say it's a prediction, just that it's entirely possible !! As I said, I can see at least two Green gains if last May's results are any sort of guide .... Conservative Dale Ferrier in Whittlefield with Ightenhill doesn't have much profile, for example and if planning issues are still a hot topic, then Cliviger with Worsthorne could get a 2nd Green Councillor ! I think even you'd admit that in terms of graft and effort, Ivor Emo, the incumbent Conservative would be unfortunate to lose. I think if both veteran Labour Councillors, Bea Foster and Frank Cant ( Rosegrove with Lowerhouse & Gawthorpe respectively ) stand again, they may be OK, but if they retire and it's a new Candidate, Labour may struggle ... |
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 5, 2022 17:00:02 GMT
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 5, 2022 17:00:13 GMT
Double post
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Post by ideal4radio on Apr 6, 2022 1:43:23 GMT
Given the churn in Burnley in the last few years I find that prediction - bold. I wouldn't say it's a prediction, just that it's entirely possible !! As I said, I can see at least two Green gains if last May's results are any sort of guide .... Conservative Dale Ferrier in Whittlefield with Ightenhill doesn't have much profile, for example and if planning issues are still a hot topic, then Cliviger with Worsthorne could get a 2nd Green Councillor ! I think even you'd admit that in terms of graft and effort, Ivor Emo, the incumbent Conservative would be unfortunate to lose. I think if both veteran Labour Councillors, Bea Foster and Frank Cant ( Rosegrove with Lowerhouse & Gawthorpe respectively ) stand again, they may be OK, but if they retire and it's a new Candidate, Labour may struggle ... Both the veteran Labour Councillors mentioned have stood down, so their wards could be vulnerable, whereas in Whittlefield with Ightenhill, we see quite a rare beast, a former Conservative Councillor now standing for the Greens ... |
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Post by carolus on Apr 10, 2022 7:47:51 GMT
Parish council elections with party candidates:
Briercliffe (9) - 2x LD, 14x ND
Cliviger (9) - Green, 9x ND
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Post by lackeroftalent on Apr 15, 2022 11:38:13 GMT
This polling reported in the Daily Telegraph predicts that Labour will gain control of Burnley Council. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220415.htmlThat seems a rather unlikely outcome and would require a very strong Labour performance against the Lib Dems and Greens as well as the Conservatives to come to pass. Any indications locally that this is plausible rather than simply a poor methodology that fails to take account of parties other than Labour and Conservatives. |
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Post by owainsutton on Apr 15, 2022 13:06:05 GMT
Any indications locally that this is plausible rather than simply a poor methodology that fails to take account of parties other than Labour and Conservatives. Well, it does involve Electoral Calculus, so that sounds about right. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 15, 2022 20:07:40 GMT
They also predicted Labour gaining Burnley last year - how did that turn out?
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Apr 15, 2022 21:08:06 GMT
Admin Twaddleford , could we have a poll on this thread please? Could be an interesting one.
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Post by owainsutton on Apr 16, 2022 8:10:42 GMT
Fifteen wards.
Four have 3 Labour incumbents each (Bank Hall, Daneshouse with Stoneyholme, Lanehead, Queensgate)
Two have 3 Lib Dem incumbents (Briercliffe, Coalclough with Deerplay)
One apiece for 3 incumbents for Conservatives, Greens and localists (Hapton with Park - two were elected as UKIP, in 18/19, Trinity, Gannow)
Of the split wards, the results for '18/'19/'21 were:
Brunshaw - L/L/G
Cliviger with Worsthorne - C/C/G
Gawthorpe - L/L/C
Rosegrove with Lowerhouse - L/Localist/L
Rosehill with Burnley Wood - LD/LD/C
Whittlefield with Ightenhill - C/Localist/C
A net gain for Labour of five seats would mean some bonkers against-the-grain results even by Burnley standards!!
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 16, 2022 15:33:44 GMT
Any indications locally that this is plausible rather than simply a poor methodology that fails to take account of parties other than Labour and Conservatives. Well, it does involve Electoral Calculus, so that sounds about right. They're predicting that the Conservatives won't lose control of any councils and all the gains by the other parties will come from NOC councils. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 16, 2022 15:41:00 GMT
Well, it does involve Electoral Calculus, so that sounds about right. They're predicting that the Conservatives won't lose control of any councils and all the gains by the other parties will come from NOC councils. A very *brave* prediction, minister. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 16, 2022 15:44:55 GMT
They're predicting that the Conservatives won't lose control of any councils and all the gains by the other parties will come from NOC councils. A very *brave* prediction, minister. Isn’t it quite likely that the Conservatives will incur biggish seat losses without losing many councils? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 16, 2022 15:48:04 GMT
A very *brave* prediction, minister. Isn’t it quite likely that the Conservatives will incur biggish seat losses without losing many councils? Maybe, but 0 is quite unlikely. Somerset, for the instance. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 16, 2022 15:49:43 GMT
Isn’t it quite likely that the Conservatives will incur biggish seat losses without losing many councils? Maybe, but 0 is quite unlikely. Somerset, for the instance. Yes. I haven’t looked at each council. Somerset, Wandsworth, Worcester, Southampton maybe. Are there other likely council losses? |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 16, 2022 15:49:59 GMT
Isn’t it quite likely that the Conservatives will incur biggish seat losses without losing many councils? Maybe, but 0 is quite unlikely. Somerset, for the instance. It's a new council, so won't be a loss. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 16, 2022 16:14:02 GMT
With regard to the poll on this thread, is it not mathematically impossible for the Conservatives to win control here?
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