South Cambridgeshire

[Admin Twaddleford]

South Cambridgeshire

All Up

[carolus]

Current council: LD 30, Con 11, Lab 2, Ind 1.

Since the last elections in 2018, there have been five byelections.
Whittlesford - Feb 2020 - Con hold by 10.4% over LD (had been 48% over Lab).
Girton - May 2021 - LD gain from Ind by 16% over Con.
Harston & Comberton - May 2021 - LD hold by 8% over Con (had been 9%).
Melbourn - May 2021 - LD hold by 19% over Con (had been 21%).
Milton & Waterbeach - May 2021 - LD hold by 5.1% over Con (had been more over Ind and Lab).

I'm going to eschew ward-by-ward comments here on the basis that a lot may have changed in 4 years, and most wards were reasonably close last time.

South Cambs has a mix of 1, 2 and 3 member wards. In 2018 the Lib Dems won a lot of wards fairly narrowly - overall LD 38.4%, Con 33%, Lab 17.7% resulted in 30, 11, 2 seats respectively.

In the county council elections in 2021 the Lib Dems did better - 45.7% of the vote to Con 34%, and won 13 of the 15 divisions. The only divisions the LDs didn't win were Cambourne - Con hold by 6%, consisting of Cambourne ward (2C, 1L) and Caldecote Ward (LD)- and Papworth & Swavesy - Caxton & Papworth (2C), Swavesey (1C). Again, several divisions were pretty narrow victories.

I think on the basis of the CC elections (obviously a slightly different context to DC, but Cons were riding high at the time), it's probably reasonable to expect the trend towards the Lib Dems to continue - although it's quite possible they suffer from being in power in the district.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Worth noting that auditors have refused to sign off on the council's accounts for several years, for unclear reasons. I suspect it's probably too complex a story to make easy leaflet fodder, but it's not a great thing to defend.

Additionally, the LDs came to power having taken a relatively hostile stance towards house-building, but have since had to face reality and put a lot of schemes through, many of which have not been popular locally. That may hurt them in some wards.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Feb 27, 2022 15:58:54 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Worth noting that auditors have refused to sign off on the council's accounts for several years, for unclear reasons. I suspect it's probably too complex a story to make easy leaflet fodder, but it's not a great thing to defend.

Having a look at the latest progress report and it seems the problem is that the council hasn't properly supplied valuations of plant property and equipment from 2018/19. This is one of the standard things that external auditors look at and quite a lot of councils fall down on it (because it's very difficult to do). But because it stems back to 2018/19, that includes the time the Conservatives were running the council so it's difficult for them to use it as political attack.

One of the rules of auditing is that if one year can't be signed off, the auditors can't proceed to sign off the years after. For several years on Westminster we had only provisional audit findings (albeit with a very high degree of confidence) because a single audit challenge was outstanding from several years before.

[casualobserver]

Feb 27, 2022 16:15:58 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Feb 27, 2022 15:58:54 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Worth noting that auditors have refused to sign off on the council's accounts for several years, for unclear reasons. I suspect it's probably too complex a story to make easy leaflet fodder, but it's not a great thing to defend.

Having a look at the latest progress report and it seems the problem is that the council hasn't properly supplied valuations of plant property and equipment from 2018/19. This is one of the standard things that external auditors look at and quite a lot of councils fall down on it (because it's very difficult to do). But because it stems back to 2018/19, that includes the time the Conservatives were running the council so it's difficult for them to use it as political attack.

One of the rules of auditing is that if one year can't be signed off, the auditors can't proceed to sign off the years after. For several years on Westminster we had only provisional audit findings (albeit with a very high degree of confidence) because a single audit challenge was outstanding from several years before.

Somewhat disingenuous don't you think, David? The Conservatives had a majority on the Council for only the first five weeks of the financial year 2018-19.

This is the LibDem Council which illegally withheld precept money from Parish Councils: www.scambsconservatives.org.uk/news/south-cambs-district-council-unlawfully-withheld-money-parishes

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 5, 2022 21:10:04 GMT casualobserver said:

Feb 27, 2022 16:15:58 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Having a look at the latest progress report and it seems the problem is that the council hasn't properly supplied valuations of plant property and equipment from 2018/19. This is one of the standard things that external auditors look at and quite a lot of councils fall down on it (because it's very difficult to do). But because it stems back to 2018/19, that includes the time the Conservatives were running the council so it's difficult for them to use it as political attack.

One of the rules of auditing is that if one year can't be signed off, the auditors can't proceed to sign off the years after. For several years on Westminster we had only provisional audit findings (albeit with a very high degree of confidence) because a single audit challenge was outstanding from several years before.

Somewhat disingenuous don't you think, David? The Conservatives had a majority on the Council for only the first five weeks of the financial year 2018-19.

This is the LibDem Council which illegally withheld precept money from Parish Councils: www.scambsconservatives.org.uk/news/south-cambs-district-council-unlawfully-withheld-money-parishes

It is surely the responsibility of officers to advise councillors if a course of action is ultra vires?

[listener]

SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE (Cambridgeshire) (Lib Dem)


3 May 2018 - Lib Dem 30, Con 11, Lab 2, Independent 2
Now - Lib Dem 30, Con 11, Lab 2, Independent 1, Vacant 1


27 February 2020 – Whittlesford – Con hold
Richard Williams (Con) elected
Caused by the resignation of Peter Topping (Con), Leader of the Opposition Group, after making a “personal decision” to move to Northumberland, where his wife worked for the NHS. “For the last couple of years we have been sort of running two houses and commuting backwards and forwards at the weekends to see each other, so it’s a very personal thing”.

6 May 2021 – Melbourn – Lib Dem hold
*Sally Hart (Lib Dem) elected
Caused by the resignation on 16 July 2020 of Philippa Hart (Lib Dem), who also resigned from the party, blaming “bullying tactics” by the Lib Dem group’s leadership.

6 May 2021 – Harston and Comberton – Lib Dem hold
*Fiona Whelan (Lib Dem) elected
Caused by the resignation on 25 September 2020 of Philip Allen (Lib Dem), who had also left the party, claiming his party’s position on rejoining the EU was not strong enough.

6 May 2021 – Milton and Waterbeach – Lib Dem hold
Paul Bearpark (Lib Dem) elected
Caused by the resignation of Hazel Smith (Lib Dem), reported on 28 March 2021. She was retiring after 17 years as a councillor.

6 May 2021 – Girton – Lib Dem gain from Independent
*Corinne Garvie (Lib Dem) elected
Caused by the resignation of Douglas De Lacey (Independent), reported on 2 April 2021

On 10 November 2021, Fiona Whelan (Lib Dem) (Harston and Comberton) resigned, as she prepared to move home, creating an unfilled vacancy.

[iain]

SOPN: www.scambs.gov.uk/media/19940/statement-of-persons-nominations-district.pdf

Conservative - 45
Lib Dem - 45
Labour - 22 (Balsham, Bassingbourn, Cambourne (1/3), Fen Ditton & Fulbourn (3/3), Girton (1/2), Hardwick, Harston & Comberton (1/3), Histon & Impington (3/3), Linton (2/2), Longstanton (1/2), Melbourn (1/2), Milton & Waterbeach (3/3), Over & Willingham (2/2), Sawston (1/2))
Green - 16 (Balsham, Bar Hill, Bassingbourn, Cambourne (1/3), Caxton & Papworth (1/2), Cottenham (1/2), Fen Ditton & Fulbourn (1/3), Girton (1/2), Harston & Comberton (1/3), Histon & Impington (1/3), Linton (1/2), Melbourn (1/2), Milton & Waterbeach (1/3), Shelford (1/2), Swavesey, The Mordens)
Independent - 3 (2 in Cambourne, 1 in Histon & Impington)

[ricmk]

Compared to 2018 I make that:

Con = (45-> 45)
LD +4 (41->45)
Lab -23 (45->22)
Green -10 (26->16)
UKIP -1 (1->0)
Ind -4 (7->3)

[East Anglian Lefty]

Looks like a full slate for Labour in the bits of the district in SE Cambs and only a handful in the bits covered by S Cambs CLP (and at least one of the candidates in the latter was, last I checked, resident in SE Cambs.) Even worse, there's only one candidate in Cambourne, where we're defending a seat.

Just incredibly poor.

[carolus]

Parish SOPN. Lots of parishes, but as far as I can see no party political interest.

[Andrew_S]

Apr 5, 2022 18:57:45 GMT carolus said:

Parish SOPN. Lots of parishes, but as far as I can see no party political interest.

I like way one of the candidates in Bourn describes himself as "retired". (Not the only one I've just noticed).

[listener]

30 of the 44 councillors are seeking re-election, with one vacancy already in Harston and Comberton.

Both Labour members are retiring and the solitary Independent, Deborah Roberts (Foxton), is seeking re-election as a Conservative.

Only 21 of the 30 Lib Dems are seeking re-election, as are 8 of the 11 Conservatives.

The full list of the 14 councillors retiring is

Neil Gough (Lib Dem) (Cottenham)
*Eileen Wilson (Lib Dem) (Cottenham)
*Claire Daunton (Lib Dem) (Fen Ditton and Fulbourn)
Tony Mason (Lib Dem) (Harston and Comberton)
Ian Sollom (Lib Dem) (Harston and Comberton)
Steve Hunt (Lib Dem) (Histon and Impington)
*Dawn Percival (Lib Dem) (Over and Willingham)
*Clare Delderfield (Lib Dem) (Sawston)
Nick Sample (Lib Dem) (Shelford)

*Ruth Betson (Con) (Cambourne)
Nick Wright (Con) (Caxton and Papworth)
Grenville Chamberlain (Con) (Hardwick)

Nigel Cathcart (Lab) (Bassingbourn)
Gavin Clayton (Lab) (Cambourne)

[hempie]

Lib Dems strengthen even more:
LD 37 (+ 6)
Con 8 (- 3)
Lab 0 (-2)
Ind 0 (-1)

[matureleft]

May 6, 2022 13:44:53 GMT hempie said:

Lib Dems strengthen even more:
LD 37 (+ 6)
Con 8 (- 3)
Lab 0 (-2)
Ind 0 (-1)

Yes, an impressive Lib Dem performance. Labour lost a personal vote seat in Bassingbourn with the retirement of the long-serving councillor (the Labour candidate got a derisory vote). They also lost their foothold in Cambourne in a 3 member ward pretty comfortably (a new candidate again). Their results around the Cambridge urban area (Fulbourn for example) weren’t that bad but weren’t good enough to be in contention. I’d imagine that a squeeze to defend a non-Tory council worked pretty well.

The shortage of Labour candidates suggests the local party had some sympathy with that view. I can recall a vigorous discussion on the merits of running candidates in the ward I lived in for a few years and that’s over 25 years ago in a strong Labour period! 

The demography of the area around Cambridge is working against the Tories as is the particular flavour of Toryism on offer nationally. In 2019 the spectre of Corbyn would have hardened up Tories who viewed Johnson’s recipe with distaste. I find it hard to believe that will repeat in sufficient quantity next time. 

[YL]

(together with the rest of the ceremonial county; grey wards had no elections)

[southpaw1]

Anthony Browne's toast at the next election

[batman]

that really isn't a given, although if there were an election today he probably would be.

[East Anglian Lefty]

May 8, 2022 9:02:32 GMT matureleft said:

May 6, 2022 13:44:53 GMT hempie said:

Lib Dems strengthen even more:
LD 37 (+ 6)
Con 8 (- 3)
Lab 0 (-2)
Ind 0 (-1)

Yes, an impressive Lib Dem performance. Labour lost a personal vote seat in Bassingbourn with the retirement of the long-serving councillor (the Labour candidate got a derisory vote). They also lost their foothold in Cambourne in a 3 member ward pretty comfortably (a new candidate again). Their results around the Cambridge urban area (Fulbourn for example) weren’t that bad but weren’t good enough to be in contention. I’d imagine that a squeeze to defend a non-Tory council worked pretty well.

The shortage of Labour candidates suggests the local party had some sympathy with that view. I can recall a vigorous discussion on the merits of running candidates in the ward I lived in for a few years and that’s over 25 years ago in a strong Labour period! 

The demography of the area around Cambridge is working against the Tories as is the particular flavour of Toryism on offer nationally. In 2019 the spectre of Corbyn would have hardened up Tories who viewed Johnson’s recipe with distaste. I find it hard to believe that will repeat in sufficient quantity next time. 

Bassingbourn was always a likely loss, but picking a replacement candidate who didn't live in the ward was a good way to make that certain (even if he is one of the few longstanding activists in the local CLP.) Cambourne was a much bigger failure, but I do get the impression that South Cambs CLP couldn't find their way out of a paper bag so I'm not overly surprised.

The results in Fen Ditton & Fulbourn and Milton & Waterbeach were pretty good given that the national pattern was for anti-Tory votes to collapse to whoever the primary anti-Tory party was. Both now fall into the category of being potentially winnable if there's a convenient by-election, which isn't much as green shoots go but is more than you can say in most of Cambridgeshire.

[cogload]

IF (a big IF) we have a winter of (economic) discontent as predicted and the Tories continue to poll in the low 30's then East Cambridgeshire could be an interesting watch next year.