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Post by Wisconsin on Jun 9, 2021 16:33:02 GMT
Illness aside, it would be delightfully ironic if the member for Norfolk North lost her seat due to her own bill.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 9, 2021 18:32:23 GMT
Wirral West - Britain Elects - Con 44.9 Lab 43.8.
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Post by ibfc on Jun 9, 2021 18:34:50 GMT
Britain Elects has Calder Valley flipping to Labour.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 9, 2021 18:36:19 GMT
Britain Elects has Calder Valley flipping to Labour. And Halifax to Con and I'm very dubious. |
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Post by ibfc on Jun 9, 2021 18:45:29 GMT
Britain Elects has Calder Valley flipping to Labour. And Halifax to Con and I'm very dubious. Even Electoral Calculus has Halifax flipping, though only by 500 odd votes. Quite surprised to see a 10k majority disappear in Calder Valley though. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 9, 2021 18:49:03 GMT
And Halifax to Con and I'm very dubious. Even Electoral Calculus has Halifax flipping, though only by 500 odd votes. Quite surprised to see a 10k majority disappear in Calder Valley though. A shade under 6,000. The wards added from Halifax did likely lean Con in 2019 but not to the extent of the wards lost however it's quite a stretch to see both seats flipping. |
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Post by ibfc on Jun 9, 2021 18:51:21 GMT
Even Electoral Calculus has Halifax flipping, though only by 500 odd votes. Quite surprised to see a 10k majority disappear in Calder Valley though. A shade under 6,000. The wards added from Halifax did likely lean Con in 2019 but not to the extent of the wards lost however it's quite a stretch to see both seats flipping. My bad on the numbers. Misremembered it. |
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Post by where2travel on Jun 9, 2021 18:53:13 GMT
Britain Elects has Calder Valley flipping to Labour. And Halifax to Con and I'm very dubious. It's the only way the Tories can "win" Halifax! It feels like a constituency that's always talked about as a possible Conservative gain, but never gets there with small, but not enough swings in their favour. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 9, 2021 18:56:54 GMT
And Halifax to Con and I'm very dubious. It's the only way the Tories can "win" Halifax! It feels like a constituency that's always talked about as a possible Conservative gain, but never gets there with small, but not enough swings in their favour. We made the huge mistake of selecting the wrong candidate in 1983. The right chap would have held it to 1997 and that legacy would have given us the edge in 2010. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 9, 2021 19:19:06 GMT
It's the only way the Tories can "win" Halifax! It feels like a constituency that's always talked about as a possible Conservative gain, but never gets there with small, but not enough swings in their favour. We made the huge mistake of selecting the wrong candidate in 1983. The right chap would have held it to 1997 and that legacy would have given us the edge in 2010. You may not like her politics but Alice Mahon was an excellent choice for Labour - she never had any personal ambitions and was the archetypal good constituency MP. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 9, 2021 20:11:21 GMT
We made the huge mistake of selecting the wrong candidate in 1983. The right chap would have held it to 1997 and that legacy would have given us the edge in 2010. You may not like her politics but Alice Mahon was an excellent choice for Labour - she never had any personal ambitions and was the archetypal good constituency MP. She was! Courteous, honest, hard working and local. A fine constituency MP. RG stood no chance in 87 because of her, well deserved, reputation as a local councillor. As an aside we have been blessed in Calder Valley by the choice of opposition candidates. |
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Post by robert1 on Jun 9, 2021 20:21:01 GMT
Alice Mahon was also a very honourable person. Great company. She never paired with a Tory. We lived near each other. She would find me and tell me that she would accept a lift if I wanted to go home. Never paired though. 
However, she allowed me to tell my whip that I was 'taking her home'.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 9, 2021 20:46:31 GMT
You may not like her politics but Alice Mahon was an excellent choice for Labour - she never had any personal ambitions and was the archetypal good constituency MP. She was! Courteous, honest, hard working and local. A fine constituency MP. RG stood no chance in 87 because of her, well deserved, reputation as a local councillor. As an aside we have been blessed in Calder Valley by the choice of opposition candidates. Well, Christine was good, but the less said about Steph Booth, the better The last candidate just oozes careerism and will place himself where is considered fashionable at the time |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 10, 2021 12:39:22 GMT
The obvious adjustment on non-partisan grounds would be to get Skerton West in, and that ought to help Labour a bit. Although it could go the other way. I'm sure the Tories will want Skerton East swapped back into Morecambe in exchange for somewhere like Halton-with-Aughton. Well they *could* propose that, but surely the only sensible reason for breaking the "taboo" of crossing the lower Lune (that has been there since the pre-1997 changes) is to include Lancaster north of the river with the rest of the city (btw the separating of Skerton from the rest of Lancaster was controversial at the time, and has probably never been fully accepted) And if you are doing this, including all of it rather than just half makes pretty obvious sense too. This would indeed mean some of the Lune valley villages south of the river going with the new Morecambe seat - no this isn't absolutely ideal but way back when both sides of the valley formed Lunesdale RDC (which was actually based in Morecambe) so there is a historical precedent |
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0oh
Non-Aligned
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Post by 0oh on Jun 12, 2021 0:22:46 GMT
I don't suppose Clive Efford will like the proposals much? I'm so looking forward to this. |
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 13, 2021 0:09:19 GMT
I see speculation elsewhere that Rees Mogg/Chris Skidmore would be in trouble in the new North East Somerset. Would they really? It loses Midsomer Norton and Radstock and the Bathavon wards (the latter surely fertile territory for the Lib Dems if not Labour?), and replaces them with what look like the best Tory wards in Kingswood. Doesn't sound like too bad a swap?
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 13, 2021 0:43:14 GMT
I see speculation elsewhere that Rees Mogg/Chris Skidmore would be in trouble in the new North East Somerset. Would they really? It loses Midsomer Norton and Radstock and the Bathavon wards (the latter surely fertile territory for the Lib Dems if not Labour?), and replaces them with what look like the best Tory wards in Kingswood. Doesn't sound like too bad a swap? If anything, Frome may be a little more marginal. Most of its electorate will either live in Frome itself or the former Somerset coalfield areas. Normally they'd be outvoted by the rural parts of the seat, but it's the sort of place Labour might win if they were on course for an overall majority, particularly if they can squeeze the Green vote in Frome (which in some ways seems to be Somerset's answer to Stroud). |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 28, 2021 17:42:59 GMT
It looks like Valerie Vaz's seat in Walsall South has effectively been abolished, and Pat McFadden in Wolverhampton South East may have had his already slim majority reduced, perhaps completely. I would agree that Valerie Vaz may have a problem. My notionals for the proposed Walsall and Wolverhampton seats are Bloxwich and Brownhills Con 16,254 Walsall Con 8,885 Wolverhampton NE Con 7,789 Wolverhampton SE Lab 1,610 Wolverhampton West. Con 721 |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jun 28, 2021 17:53:04 GMT
It looks like Valerie Vaz's seat in Walsall South has effectively been abolished, and Pat McFadden in Wolverhampton South East may have had his already slim majority reduced, perhaps completely. I would agree that Valerie Vaz may have a problem. My notionals for the proposed Walsall and Wolverhampton seats are Bloxwich and Brownhills Con 16,254 Walsall Con 8,885 Wolverhampton NE Con 7,789 Wolverhampton SE Lab 1,610 Wolverhampton West. Con 721 The ward results on the Walsall website show a Tory majority of 3,457 in Walsall, so still winnable for Labour. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 28, 2021 18:00:08 GMT
I would agree that Valerie Vaz may have a problem. My notionals for the proposed Walsall and Wolverhampton seats are Bloxwich and Brownhills Con 16,254 Walsall Con 8,885 Wolverhampton NE Con 7,789 Wolverhampton SE Lab 1,610 Wolverhampton West. Con 721 The ward results on the Walsall website show a Tory majority of 3,457 in Walsall, so still winnable for Labour. Yes, That’s the actual local election gap in 2021. |
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