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Post by bjornhattan on Apr 30, 2021 22:08:41 GMT
Looking at the Hertfordshire results, its total bollocks to be honest Moor Park and Eastbury is a particular highlight - they think Gauke got 58% of the vote! |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Apr 30, 2021 22:11:33 GMT
Yeah, I took a quick look at Gloucestershire and concluded it was complete crap Obviously I can only really speak for my own patch but the Tory wins in some of the Stroud wards (except F&P), Dursley voting remain and Painswick and Hardwicke voting Labour in 2010 are fantasy land. What did you make of the Cheltenham results? The idea of the Tories winning 50%+ in Oakley and St Paul's seem fairly ridiculous but I remember a few people saying that the GE produced some surprising results in areas like that St Paul’s would be very Lib Dem, Oakley Tory in 2019. The stupidest ones were Lansdown and Park being the strongest Lib Dem wards, and Springbank being massively Tory in 2010. Painswick as Labour was the one that made me laugh though! I can only assume they have worked out their referendum estimates (poorly) and then based everything exclusively on that? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2021 22:11:52 GMT
I can't see it either, but on the section of map on the how it works page Hebden Bridge really stands out. Not sure why Worth Valley goes the other way. Some of the wards Labour get in Lancashire seem rather odd. Maybe the I'm underestimating the Brexit effect but it feels like the Tories are overstated in some (but by no means all) urban working class wards and underestimated in traditionally stronger areas.Well to be frank I thin every single analysis has done that. Obviously there are some areas where a Lab --> Con shift happened in a big way but to be honest I think too much has been made of it. Labour's biggest problem appears to have been that too much of our support didn't vote (which is actually supported by the past voter ID data I've seen over the course of the local elections now that our system has incorporated the marked register results into it) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2021 22:13:23 GMT
Obviously I can only really speak for my own patch but the Tory wins in some of the Stroud wards (except F&P), Dursley voting remain and Painswick and Hardwicke voting Labour in 2010 are fantasy land. What did you make of the Cheltenham results? The idea of the Tories winning 50%+ in Oakley and St Paul's seem fairly ridiculous but I remember a few people saying that the GE produced some surprising results in areas like that St Paul’s would be very Lib Dem, Oakley Tory in 2019. The stupidest ones were Lansdown and Park being the strongest Lib Dem wards, and Springbank being massively Tory in 2010. Painswick as Labour was the one that made me laugh though! I can only assume they have worked out their referendum estimates (poorly) and then based everything exclusively on that? Or they've put to much weighting on education, which is understandable if they've done a lot of US stuff but it doesn't work anything like as well in the UK |
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Post by bjornhattan on Apr 30, 2021 22:24:51 GMT
They have the Ponteland wards as all voting leave, which strikes me as... dubious. CC bjornhattan Yes, I saw that which is frankly ridiculous. They seem to have massively overestimated Leave across the Hexham constituency - for example they have Stocksfield as 50-50, Hexham West as only 54% Remain, and Prudhoe South at almost 65% Leave. All of those should be a few points better for Remain. On the other hand, they've overestimated Remain in the south east of the county, putting them ahead in Bedlington Central and two of the Blyth wards. Another highlight of their Northumbrian mess is Humshaugh - which apparently has a consistent Labour vote of ~40% - and Cramlington North which they have as a safe Labour ward, being held by landslide margins even in 2019!
They do a bit better in Tyne and Wear, but there are certainly oddities there. I know Newcastle is a polarised city, but South Jesmond won't have been quite as much as 87% Remain, and Walker not quite 79% Leave. And while Gateshead is better, I find it hard to believe Winlaton had a bigger Remain vote than Blaydon (on par with Chopwell and Rowlands Gill).
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 30, 2021 23:21:53 GMT
- and Cramlington North which they have as a safe Labour ward, being held by landslide margins even in 2019! How do the Conservatives win Blyth Valley then? Education isn't necessarily the problem there, Cramlington North is the most educated ward in Blyth Valley but beyond that it's nothing special. Age might be a big factor I think - it had very few people aged 65+ in 2011 (I guess when new the houses were bought almost exclusively by people with children and few would have reached retirement by 2011?). If the ward with the highest rate of owner occupiers in the country is Labour I assume that wasn't included in the regression. |
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Post by greatkingrat on May 1, 2021 0:02:22 GMT
Do people think it is generally better or worse than the ward estimates on Electoral Calculus?
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Post by hullenedge on May 1, 2021 7:39:40 GMT
Do people think it is generally better or worse than the ward estimates on Electoral Calculus? Worse. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 1, 2021 7:40:15 GMT
Worse. At least where electoral calculus gets it wrong it’s normally in understandable areas.
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on May 1, 2021 7:54:00 GMT
There's no way Labour only got 54% in Cumnock ward in 2010 - more like 74% I'd say
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 1, 2021 8:08:36 GMT
They're trying to predict locals, from Canada, I wish them luck.
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Post by yellowperil on May 1, 2021 8:43:00 GMT
They're trying to predict locals, from Canada, I wish them luck. hasn't done so badly over the years. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 1, 2021 10:32:25 GMT
He's obviously not behind this, then.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on May 1, 2021 14:17:44 GMT
I can confirm I'm not behind this, nor do I know the man behind this project.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on May 1, 2021 16:26:45 GMT
I did notice they had Hebden Bridge down as an unlikely Conservative bastion, which seems completely implausible. Looking at the census stats/home ownership they'd be right. Knowing the residents...definitely not one of our bastions. What about “God fearing” Cornholme? |
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Post by bjornhattan on May 1, 2021 18:29:09 GMT
It does seem like at least some of their mistakes are down to data errors - at least that's the only explanation I can find for the entire Malvern Hills (along with Pershore) being estimated as strongly Labour in 2015.
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Post by nobodyimportant on May 5, 2021 10:26:46 GMT
The more I look at it in my local area the less good I think it is. Westcott as the least Conservative ward in Wokingham constituency? Really? And while that ward probably did vote remain (unlike most of the wards South of Wokingham) there's no way it was more remain than, say, Maiden Erlegh and again it'd certainly not be the most remainy seat in the council.
And if Twyford had voted 62.3% Con in 2017 then Theresa May would have gotten at least 80% of the vote in the constituency as a whole, not 64.8%. 2019's figure of 49% Con looks like a more believable figure for 2017. 2019's actual figure would have been considerably lower.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 5, 2021 12:47:56 GMT
In Westminster it shows Labour ahead in Lancaster Gate but not Bayswater at recent elections. That is not so.
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