May 6th Elections Prediction Competition

[peterl]

I thought it might be fun to have a just-for-fun competition for the May 6th elections. I've decided to focus on four aspects, these being

1. Scottish Parliament
2. Welsh Parliament
3. Greater London Authority (Assembly plus Mayor)
4. Hartlepool By Election

I am not including councils because of the vast quantity of contests and the difficulty of counting seats or whole councils. I am not including police commissioners because they are so difficult to predict.

This will be very simple. For each category, just predict how many seats each party will win. For Hartlepool, instead predict the percentage for each party and the winner.

The scoring will be very simple. For categories 1-3, you start at 100%. You lose 1% for each seat that is wrong, 10% if you get the largest party wrong, 5% if you incorrectly predict that a certain party will or will not be represented. For category 3, the winner of the mayor is worth 10%. For Hartlepool, its 1% off for each 1% different to the result, 10% off for the wrong winner. There are no penalties for not adding up correctly, and the contest is open until the polls close (10pm May 6th), entries beyond that will not be scored.

Feel free to predict any other contests, but I won't be scoring them.

Anyone fancy a go?

[Deleted]

Go on I'll have a go but I'll need some time to hammer out a prediction

[johnloony]

You wrote "the scoring will be very simple" and then described the details of a hideously complicated and convoluted obscurantist scoring system.

[peterl]

Apr 21, 2021 16:51:38 GMT johnloony said:

You wrote "the scoring will be very simple" and then described the details of a hideously complicated and convoluted obscurantist scoring system.

I consider it simple. Its simpler than that used for the weekly prediction competition, since we are not dealing with fractions of percent for instance. If you have a suggestion however, feel free to make it. Ultimatly, I will be scoring it, you only have to worry about how many seats you think each party will win.

[greenhert]

Apr 20, 2021 23:30:26 GMT peterl said:

I thought it might be fun to have a just-for-fun competition for the May 6th elections. I've decided to focus on four aspects, these being

1. Scottish Parliament
2. Welsh Parliament
3. Greater London Authority (Assembly plus Mayor)
4. Hartlepool By Election

I am not including councils because of the vast quantity of contests and the difficulty of counting seats or whole councils. I am not including police commissioners because they are so difficult to predict.

This will be very simple. For each category, just predict how many seats each party will win. For Hartlepool, instead predict the percentage for each party and the winner.

The scoring will be very simple. For categories 1-3, you start at 100%. You lose 1% for each seat that is wrong, 10% if you get the largest party wrong, 5% if you incorrectly predict that a certain party will or will not be represented. For category 3, the winner of the mayor is worth 10%. For Hartlepool, its 1% off for each 1% different to the result, 10% off for the wrong winner. There are no penalties for not adding up correctly, and the contest is open until the polls close (10pm May 6th), entries beyond that will not be scored.

Feel free to predict any other contests, but I won't be scoring them.

Anyone fancy a go?

I do. I predict that:

1. In the Scottish Parliament, the SNP will win 59 seats, the Conservatives 30, Labour 25, the Scottish Greens 9, the Liberal Democrats 5, and Alba 1.
2. In the Senedd, Labour will win 27, the Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 13, the Liberal Democrats 4, the Greens 1, AWAP 1, Reform UK 1, and Propel (along with all the other minor parties) 0.
3. Sadiq Khan will win the Mayoral election in round 2. The London Assembly will elect 10 Labour, 10 Conservatives, 3 Greens, and 2 Lib Dems.
4. Hartlepool by-election: Labour 40%, Conservative 39%, Liberal Democrats 4%, Green 4%, North East Party 3.5%, Reform 3%, Thelma Walker 2%, Ralph Ward-Jackson 1%, Freedom Alliance 0.6%, SDP 0.6%, Adam Gaines 0.5%, Heritage 0.5%, OMRLP 0.4%, WEP 0.4%, Sam Lee 0.4%, Chris Killick 0.1%. Labour HOLD (just).

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

I'll probably have a go, but will need some incorrect information on previous elections to be successful, please arrange.

[peterl]

Apr 21, 2021 18:49:28 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

I'll probably have a go, but will need some incorrect information on previous elections to be successful, please arrange.

The last Scottish Parliament election saw the Lib Dems surge to victory with 119 out of 129 seats, the remainder being won by UKIP. The Welsh Assembly elected an Abolish the Welsh Assembly majority with 42 out of 60 seats, 17 for Labour and a solitary Tory. Mayor of London was won by the Monster Raving Loony Party, who defeated a competing Loony in the second round. The Assembly saw the Greens win 15 seats, the SDP 8 and Labour 2. Hartlepool was won at the last election by the DUP, narrowly beating Plaid Cymru.

Inaccurate enough for you?

[jollyroger93]

So JollyRogers Scottish election forecast a week and a half out

Constituency vote

SNP=45%
Con=24%
Lab=22%
Lib=7%
Oth=2%

Regional list

SNP=37%
Con=22%
Lab=21%
Grn=8%
Lib=5%
Alb=3%
Oth=4%

Seats

SNP=58
Con=31
Lab=27
Grn=8
Lib=5

[Tony Otim]

Apr 26, 2021 11:37:39 GMT jollyroger93 said:

So JollyRogers Scottish election forecast a week and a half out

Constituency vote

SNP=45%
Con=24%
Lab=22%
Lib=7%
Oth=2%

Regional list

SNP=37%
Con=22%
Lab=21%
Grn=8%
Lib=5%
Alb=3%
Oth=4%

Seats

SNP=58
Con=31
Lab=27
Grn=8
Lib=5

The vote shares seem a reasonable guess. What seats do you think would change? UNS (i know) wouldn't have a single constituency switching on those figures, with SNP losing 2 and Tories 3 on the list, Labour gaining 2 and Greens 3.

I am planning to have my own guess at some point before next Thursday 😉

[jollyroger93]

Apr 26, 2021 13:09:46 GMT Tony Otim said:

Apr 26, 2021 11:37:39 GMT jollyroger93 said:

So JollyRogers Scottish election forecast a week and a half out

Constituency vote

SNP=45%
Con=24%
Lab=22%
Lib=7%
Oth=2%

Regional list

SNP=37%
Con=22%
Lab=21%
Grn=8%
Lib=5%
Alb=3%
Oth=4%

Seats

SNP=58
Con=31
Lab=27
Grn=8
Lib=5

The vote shares seem a reasonable guess. What seats do you think would change? UNS (i know) wouldn't have a single constituency switching on those figures, with SNP losing 2 and Tories 3 on the list, Labour gaining 2 and Greens 3.

I am planning to have my own guess at some point before next Thursday 😉

So my money atm is on the SNP losing 5 constituency seats. Take them from 59 to 54 while holding the 4 list seats they currently have. The 5 they could lose.... well there is a variety of options, the political landscape of Scotland has change so much since 2016 I think a uniform swing on 2016 is almost redundant. I think we need to try and imagine 2019 nationals with a bit of imagination and some extra tactical voting.

For example it is likely in my view the Tories will hold 6 out of there 7 constituencies only losing Edinburgh central. I would say there is a fair chance of them gaining Moray, Aberdeenshire East, Banffshire and Buchan coastal and Angus North and Mearns. They may miss one of these but maybe gain Perthshire south and Kinross-shire .

For Labour it’s a bit more tricky, but they could in 2019 numbers take edinburgh eastern and Rutherglen. Or swap one of those for Glasgow Provan, maybe even Edinburgh central.

Regarding the list I expect the blues to go up in the south, north east, Highlands and Islands. Hold steady in midland and fife, Glasgow and central, and drop back in Lothians slightly. Labour to strength across the central belt but slightly drop in the north and south.This is all on the current April data and that Labour and the tories are both slightly improving there positions (Labour more than the tories) and takes into account historical under and over polling.

[johnloony]

I predict

Scotland: Conservative 129
Wales: Conservative 60
London: Conservative 25
Mayor: Shaun Bailey (Conservative) 100%, Others 0%
Hartlepool: Conservative 100%

[Deleted]

Apr 30, 2021 1:43:46 GMT johnloony said:

I predict

Scotland: Conservative 129
Wales: Conservative 60
London: Conservative 25
Mayor: Shaun Bailey (Conservative) 100%, Others 0%
Hartlepool: Conservative 100%

An eminently sensible prediction, which eminently sensible voters should make reality.

Well, I might allow an Independent in the London Assembly just for laughs.

[peterl]

"Senior Conservatives Eye Virtual One Party State".

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Random numbers time as these are all elections, I don't know the minutiae on.

1. Scottish Parliament - SNP 63 seats, Conservatives 29, Labour 24, Greens 8, Liberal Democrats 4, Alba 1.
2. Welsh Parliament - Labour 26, Conservatives 16, Plaid Cymru 14, the Liberal Democrats 1, AWAP 3.
3. Greater London Authority (Assembly plus Mayor) - Sadiq Khan will win the Mayoral election in round 2. The London Assembly will elect 11 Labour, 11 Conservatives, 2 Greens, and 1 Lib Dem.
4. Hartlepool By Election - Conservative 45%, Labour 35%, Green 5.1%, North East Party 4%, Liberal Democrats 3%, OMRLP 1.4%, WEP 1.1%, Reform 1%, Thelma Walker 0.9%, SDP 0.8%, Freedom Alliance 0.7%, Ralph Ward-Jackson 0.6%, Adam Gaines 0.5%, Sam Lee 0.4%, Chris Killick 0.3%, Heritage 0.2%

[Tony Otim]

1. Scottish Parliament: SNP 60; Con 30; Lab 24; Grn 9; LD 6.
2. Welsh Assembly: Lab 27; Con 15; PC 15; ATWA 3
3. London Assembly: Lab 12; Con 9; LD 2; Grn 2. Sadiq Khan wins with 49.2% of 1st preferences and a clear victory in the second round.
4. Hartlepool: Lab 40.6; Con 39.9; Reform 3.9; LD 2.8; Grn 2.6; Heritage 2.5; SDP 1.5; Freedom Alliance 1.2; NOrth East 1.2; WEP 0.9; Gaines 0.7; Lee 0.6; OMRLP 0.6; Walker 0.5; Ward-Jackson 0.4; Killick 0.1

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Scotland.
66,29,20,9,4,1.

[peterl]

May 5, 2021 21:11:01 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Scotland.
66,29,20,9,4,1.

I presume SNP, Conservative, Labour, Green, Lib Dems and the final one is Alba?

[Forfarshire Conservative]

May 5, 2021 21:21:07 GMT peterl said:

May 5, 2021 21:11:01 GMT Forfarshire Conservative said:

Scotland.
66,29,20,9,4,1.

I presume SNP, Conservative, Labour, Green, Lib Dems and the final one is Alba?

Yes.

[syorkssocialist]

1. Scottish Parliament: SNP 65, Con 27, Lab 21, Green 11, LD 5
2. Welsh Parliament: Lab 27, Con 16, Plaid 14, Abolish 2, LD 1
3. Greater London Authority (Assembly plus Mayor): Khan elected in first round with ~51%. Total guess for the Assembly: Lab 12, Con 10, Green 2, LD 1.
4. Hartlepool By Election: Lab 41.5%, Con 40.2%, Reform 5.1%, LD 4%, Green 3%, Walker 2%, SDP 1%, Freedom Alliance 1%, Heritage Party 0.5%. All others <0.5%.

Perhaps too optimistic on that last one, but I can hope.

[johng]

My predictions:

Scotland
SNP - 67
Conservative - 26
Labour - 21
Green - 10
Lib Dems - 5

Wales
Labour - 27
Conservative - 17
Plaid Cymru - 12
AWAP - 4

London
Mayor - Khan (2nd Round).
Assembly
Labour - 12
Conservative - 9
Green - 2
Lib Dems - 2

Hartlepool (Surely we are rounding and not using fractions?)
Conservative - 43%
Labour - 40%
Reform - 4%
Lib Dems - 3%
Green - 2%
T. Walker - 2%
North East Party - 2%
OMRLP - 1%
Sam Lee - 1%
Freedom Alliance - 1%
All Others - 0%