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Post by robbienicoll on Feb 25, 2021 11:17:27 GMT
After a short break since November, there appears to be 15 by-elections for 15 seats during March:
- 2 on 4th March
- 3 on 11th
- 7 on 18th
- 3 on 25th
11 of the by-elections are for Scottish authorities, all elected in 2017
4 of the by-elections are for Welsh authorities, also elected in 2017
SNP defend 6 seats, 2 following the death of the previous Councillor and 4 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as an Independent
Conservatives defend 2 seats, 1 following a death and 1 resignation who was sitting as an Independent
Labour defend 2 seats, both following resignations
Plaid Cymru defend 2 seats, both following a death
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a death
Independent defend 2 seats, both following a death
With all seats now having declared nominations:
Labour are standing 14 candidates, Conservatives have 13, Liberal Democrats have 12, SNP have 11, Scottish Greens have 9, UKIP have 5, Plaid Cymru have 4 whilst Greens and Workers Party have 1 apiece along with 11 Independents contesting 8 seats
- a total of 81 candidates for 15 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9am on the morning of the election. Reminder that for Scottish elections predictions are of first preferences and that if you want to choose a different winner after transfers then this must be specified. If no specification is made then the first preference winner will be taken as the default.
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 25, 2021 15:48:19 GMT
At last, a real reason to return to this forum.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Feb 26, 2021 9:32:51 GMT
At last, a real reason to return to this forum. nice to see you again! |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 26, 2021 10:58:34 GMT
At last, a real reason to return to this forum. nice to see you again! I have been peeking again for a while. What I saw did not on the whole encourage me to resume. Actual UK elections might, even the weird Scottish and Welsh varieties. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 2, 2021 12:38:15 GMT
Fortissat: Lab 40.2; SNP 31.0; Con 17.1; UKIP 9.0; Grn 2.7 (Lab to win)
Thorniewood: SNP 42.3; Lab 38.7; Con 9.7; Ind 4.5; Grn 2.8; UKIP 2.1 (SNP to win .... just)
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2021 6:40:59 GMT
Back to Scottish Guesswork,  , but we have an election  .
NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Fortissat
Labour 40% SNP 34%
Conservative 20%
UKIP 4.8% Green 1.2%
Labour win
NORTH LANARKSHIRE UA; Thorniewood
Labour 42.5% SNP 42.5% Conservative 12%
Green 1.5% Independent 0.9% UKIP 0.6%
Labour win on transfers
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 3, 2021 17:18:59 GMT
For what it's worth....
North Lanarkshire, Fortissat: Lab 41, SNP 32, Con 18, UKIP 5, SGP 4. Lab to win on transfers.
North Labarkshire, Thorniewood: Lab 42, SNP 40, Con 13, Ind 3, SGP 1, UKIP 1. Lab to win on transfers.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 3, 2021 19:48:22 GMT
Fortissat (N Lanarkshire): Lab 40 SNP 35 Con 20 UKIP 3 Grn 2 Lab GAIN
Thorniewood (N Lanarkshire): Lab 42 SNP 38 Con 14 Grn 3 UKIP 2 Ind 1 Lab GAIN
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 3, 2021 20:05:38 GMT
Fortissat (N Lanarkshire): Lab 42 SNP 44 Con 11 UKIP 1 Grn 2 Lab win after transfers
Thorniewood (N Lanarkshire): Lab 41 SNP 46 Con 9 Grn 2 UKIP 0 Ind 2 SNP win after transfers
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2021 20:09:14 GMT
Fortissat (N Lanarkshire): Lab 42 SNP 44 Con 11 UKIP 1 Grn 2 Lab win after transfers Thorniewood (N Lanarkshire): Lab 41 SNP 6 Con 9 Grn 2 UKIP 0 Ind 2 SNP win after transfers
Think your missing a number on the Thorniewood SNP prediction.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067 
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Post by Toylyyev on Mar 3, 2021 22:09:34 GMT
North Lanarkshire,
Fortissat: Conservative 26.5, Labour 34, Green 1.5, SNP 37, UKIP 1. Labour win on transfers.
Thorniewood: Conservative 10, Labour 40.5, Green 2, SNP 44, UKIP 0.5, Independent 3. SNP win on transfers.
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 3, 2021 22:22:54 GMT
Fortissat (N Lanarkshire): Lab 42 SNP 44 Con 11 UKIP 1 Grn 2 Lab win after transfers Thorniewood (N Lanarkshire): Lab 41 SNP 6 Con 9 Grn 2 UKIP 0 Ind 2 SNP win after transfers Think your missing a number on the Thorniewood SNP prediction.
Yes thanks SNP 46 |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 3, 2021 22:49:12 GMT
North Lanarkshire UA, Fortissat: SNP 41, Labour 40, Conservative 15, Green 3, UKIP 1. Labour gain from SNP after transfers.
North Lanarkshire UA, Thorniewood: SNP 44.5, Labour 38, Conservative 11, Green 4, Independent (Budd) 1.5, UKIP 1. SNP hold after transfers.
Totals given are for first preferences only.
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 4, 2021 0:15:08 GMT
North Lanarkshire, Fortissat: Lab 42, SNP 32, Con 18, UKIP 6, Grn 2. Lab win after transfers.
North Lanarkshire, Thorniewood: Lab 39, SNP 39, Con 13, Grn 4, Ind 3, UKIP 2. Lab win after transfers.
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Post by rightleaning on Mar 4, 2021 6:05:48 GMT
Fortissat (N Lanarkshire): Lab 39, SNP 35, Con 19, Gn 4, UKIP 3 Lab GAIN
Thorniewood (N Lanarkshire): Lab 40, SNP 34, Con 19, Gn 4, Ind 2, UKIP 1, Lab GAIN
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 4, 2021 7:40:10 GMT
Fortissat : Lab win after transfers; Lab 42 SNP 38 Con 16 Grn 3 UKIP 1
Thorniewood; SNP win after transfers: SNP 40 Lab 38 Con 14 Grn 5 Ind 2 UKIP 1
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Post by robbienicoll on Mar 4, 2021 21:43:38 GMT
10 entries to open the month, with only Tony Otim receiving 0.1 faults for going slightly above in Thorniewood. Fortissat, North Lanarkshire: 100% Labour gain after transfers, with greenhert, robertwaller and Toylyyev SNP ahead on first preferences. Thorniewood, North Lanarkshire: 5 SNP hold and 5 Labour gain after transfers. 5 have SNP ahead on first preferences, with European Lefty, Right Learning and yellowperil Labour ahead, and alien8ted and bjornhattan Labour and SNP in a dead heat. On that last point, since both alien8ted and bjornhattan have Labour as the ultimate winners and ahead in their competition entry, I've interpreted that as a prediction for them as the winner on first preferences. I prefer this to taking it that both meant to predict a draw. Spreadsheet results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11BnZKsgQPXHSA4zmpbkPwBB1YkUjdtkskMIpOKMY5Mc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 5, 2021 16:08:40 GMT
Perhaps it would be kindest to say that all of us coming back to prediction after the long layoff are pretty rusty with our predictive skills. Alternatively, none of us had a clue what was going on in darkest North Lanarkshire. Congrats to Right Leaning and @europeanlefty for jointly being the least bad. Was that actually a tie for gold or can we separate them at more decimal places? And a small clap for Defenestrated Fipplebox in bronze. |
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Post by rightleaning on Mar 5, 2021 16:22:41 GMT
yellowperil - it did feel strange (but in a nice way) doing the prediction this morning. I have no doubt that I shall resume my usual spot over the coming weeks. Good day all round as I have just had by Covid jab, just like everyone else, really impressed with the way it was all handled.
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 5, 2021 16:30:49 GMT
Perhaps it would be kindest to say that all of us coming back to prediction after the long layoff are pretty rusty with our predictive skills. Alternatively, none of us had a clue what was going on in darkest North Lanarkshire. Congrats to Right Leaning and @europeanlefty for jointly being the least bad. Was that actually a tie for gold or can we separate them at more decimal places? And a small clap for Defenestrated Fipplebox in bronze. I make the scores 43.707 for Right Leaning and 43.744 for European Lefty - possibly the closest margin ever seen in the competition? Still stunned I got the best prediction for Thorniewood - but then again the independent surge there really took everyone by surprise! |
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, but we have an election 
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