Post by Robert Waller on Jan 30, 2021 14:15:05 GMT
‘Weald’ was originally an Old English word meaning ‘forest’ (as in the German Wald). Appropriately enough, it became an industrial area in the Iron Age, for there was ironstone in the sandstone base of the High Weald. Since 1983 there has been a constituency named Wealden, situated in the county of East Sussex and essentially the successor seat to the former East Grinstead, separated from its eponymous town by the county boundary with West Sussex. Wealden still covers a heavily wooded part of southern England, but it is no longer associated with industry: only 0.1% are employed in mineral extraction, and 6.2% in manufacturing, both in the bottom third of constituencies. There are no large towns in Wealden; the most populous are Crowborough in the north of the seat not far from Tunbridge Wells, and Hailsham in the south, looking towards Eastbourne (both with around 20,500 inhabitants at the last census), Uckfield (14,500), and Heathfield (8,000), along with Forest Row, which prefers to think of itself as a village but has a population of 5,000. Wealden is still predominantly rural, and the ancient connection with the forest is still notably maintained.
That is because this seat is geographically centred on Ashdown Forest, originally a royal hunting reserve for the Norman kings after their arrival in the Conquest, but also used by A.A. Milne, who lived at Cotchford Farm near the village of Hartfield (where incidentally a later owner, Brian Jones of the Rolling Stones, was found drowned) as the setting for the stories of Winnie the Pooh and his associates. People travel to the area to play Pooh-sticks on the alleged original Pooh Bridge. 500 Acre Wood is clearly the original for the Hundred Acre version in which Pooh’s unlikely range of animal friends lived and where his adventures took place. The Conservative predominance is such that the other parties must be as gloomy as Eeyore at the prospect of challenging it.
There are no Labour wards at all, and in the 2017 East Sussex county elections the Conservatives won all of the divisions within the Wealden constituency. On Wealden district council, in the most recent contests in 2019, the Greens did manage to triumph in their local stronghold, Forest Row, and in picturesque Withyham. The Liberal Democrats won three wards in other areas of relative Tory weakness. These were two in decidedly unglamorous Hailsham, including the anomalous Hailsham East, which has by far the highest proportion of social housing in what is one of the most heavily owner occupied seats in Britain, and Jarvis Brook in the south east of Crowborough, the most down-market part of the town, though that is not saying much – the ward still has more residents in professional and managerial occupations than routine or semi-routine, a reasonable indicator of being predominantly middle class.
In the December 2019 general election the Liberal Democrats did overtake Labour to place second in the Wealden constituency, while the Greens did advance to manage narrowly to retain their deposit on this occasion. However there is no real reason for either party to be especially Tiggerish about their prospects in this seat. The Conservative vote is massive, and solid. Nusrat Ghani received 37,027 votes in 2017 and a consistent 37,043 in 2019, over 25,000 ahead of her nearest rival. It is true that with an electorate over 83,000, there will have to be boundary changes in the area, and some propose this seat to be split asunder rather than just losing a few wards. But barring that, it would indeed take a very blustery political day for the Conservative hegemony to be blown loose in Wealden.
2011 Census
Owner-occupied 77.2% 36/650
Private rented 11.0% 526/650
Social rented 9.1% 608/650
White 97.3% 197/650
Black 0.3% 397/650
Asian 1.2% 462/650
Managerial & professional 38.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 19.5%
Degree level 30.2% 178/650
No qualifications 18.3% 523/650
Students 6.1% 465/650
Age 65+ 20.9% 100/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 76.8% 34/573
Private rented 13.5% 505/573
Social rented 9.8% 528/573
White 95.9%
Black 0.4%
Asian 1.4%
Managerial & professional 38.2% 143/573
Routine & Semi-routine 18.2% 466/573
Degree level 33.8% 229/573
No qualifications 14.2% 469/573
General Election 2019: Wealden
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nus Ghani 37,043 60.8 -0.4
Liberal Democrats Chris Bowers 11,388 18.7 +8.3
Labour Angela Smith 9,377 15.4 -6.8
Green Georgia Taylor 3,099 5.1 +1.9
C Majority 25,655 42.1 +3.1
Turnout 60,907 73.3 -1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 4.4 C to LD
That is because this seat is geographically centred on Ashdown Forest, originally a royal hunting reserve for the Norman kings after their arrival in the Conquest, but also used by A.A. Milne, who lived at Cotchford Farm near the village of Hartfield (where incidentally a later owner, Brian Jones of the Rolling Stones, was found drowned) as the setting for the stories of Winnie the Pooh and his associates. People travel to the area to play Pooh-sticks on the alleged original Pooh Bridge. 500 Acre Wood is clearly the original for the Hundred Acre version in which Pooh’s unlikely range of animal friends lived and where his adventures took place. The Conservative predominance is such that the other parties must be as gloomy as Eeyore at the prospect of challenging it.
There are no Labour wards at all, and in the 2017 East Sussex county elections the Conservatives won all of the divisions within the Wealden constituency. On Wealden district council, in the most recent contests in 2019, the Greens did manage to triumph in their local stronghold, Forest Row, and in picturesque Withyham. The Liberal Democrats won three wards in other areas of relative Tory weakness. These were two in decidedly unglamorous Hailsham, including the anomalous Hailsham East, which has by far the highest proportion of social housing in what is one of the most heavily owner occupied seats in Britain, and Jarvis Brook in the south east of Crowborough, the most down-market part of the town, though that is not saying much – the ward still has more residents in professional and managerial occupations than routine or semi-routine, a reasonable indicator of being predominantly middle class.
In the December 2019 general election the Liberal Democrats did overtake Labour to place second in the Wealden constituency, while the Greens did advance to manage narrowly to retain their deposit on this occasion. However there is no real reason for either party to be especially Tiggerish about their prospects in this seat. The Conservative vote is massive, and solid. Nusrat Ghani received 37,027 votes in 2017 and a consistent 37,043 in 2019, over 25,000 ahead of her nearest rival. It is true that with an electorate over 83,000, there will have to be boundary changes in the area, and some propose this seat to be split asunder rather than just losing a few wards. But barring that, it would indeed take a very blustery political day for the Conservative hegemony to be blown loose in Wealden.
2011 Census
Owner-occupied 77.2% 36/650
Private rented 11.0% 526/650
Social rented 9.1% 608/650
White 97.3% 197/650
Black 0.3% 397/650
Asian 1.2% 462/650
Managerial & professional 38.0%
Routine & Semi-routine 19.5%
Degree level 30.2% 178/650
No qualifications 18.3% 523/650
Students 6.1% 465/650
Age 65+ 20.9% 100/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 76.8% 34/573
Private rented 13.5% 505/573
Social rented 9.8% 528/573
White 95.9%
Black 0.4%
Asian 1.4%
Managerial & professional 38.2% 143/573
Routine & Semi-routine 18.2% 466/573
Degree level 33.8% 229/573
No qualifications 14.2% 469/573
General Election 2019: Wealden
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Nus Ghani 37,043 60.8 -0.4
Liberal Democrats Chris Bowers 11,388 18.7 +8.3
Labour Angela Smith 9,377 15.4 -6.8
Green Georgia Taylor 3,099 5.1 +1.9
C Majority 25,655 42.1 +3.1
Turnout 60,907 73.3 -1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 4.4 C to LD
