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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 7, 2021 13:06:54 GMT
Think these are right ... Beds 6.37 Herts 11.47 Cambs 8.06 Essex 18.38 Suffolk 7.60 Norfolk 9.21 So Beds and Suffolk cannot stand alone. Herts-Beds looks sensible for 18 seats (+1) Cambs almost exactly 8 on its own (+1) That leaves either Norfolk-Suffolk or Essex-Suffolk for the third extra seat. Essex-Suffolk in all likelihood-probably incorporating Haverhill and the rural parts of the Braintree district. I'd leave Essex alone - the 18 current seats can stand with fairly minor changes  Colchester is a mess thanks to stupid ward boundary changes. In Clacton I originally added The Bentleys & Frating and The Oakleys & Wix but it seemed to leave Harwich too much out on a limb so opted to add Brightlingsea instead. Has the problem that there are no direct road links etc but we already have that (and still will (in West Mersea). The numbers work either way anyway Edit: I'm wondering if we could rotate the Maldon and Witham seats so they're on an East/West axis, that is to say Maldon takes the remaining Maldon district wards and the Colchester wards from Witham and Witham takes all the Chelmsford wards currently in Maldon. I'll have to check to see how the numbers work but I'm aware than on my scheme above Witham contains parts of four different districts and Chelmsford district is divided between five different constituencies which isn't ideal |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 7, 2021 13:24:41 GMT
Attempt at a minimum change plan for Cambridgeshire:
East Cambridgeshire (76729) - successor to SE Cambs, gains the rest of East Cambs district, loses all of South Cambs district bar Over & Willingham and Milton & Waterbeach. You could swap the former for Cottenham to produce neater lines, but it moves about 10k additional electors. My preference would be to have the seat take Fen Ditton & Fulbourn and Balsham instead, but I struggled to make the numbers work for that. I know the detached bit of Milton parish is isolated, but honestly that's a complete non-issue - it only has a road connection to Cambridge and the ward won't be placed in the Cambridge seat, so it's not worth producing a doughnut seat in order that you can swim the Cam without moving from one constituency to another.
South Cambridgeshire (75909, using the Boundary Assistant numbers for Cambridge wards) - gains Trumpington from Cambridge and Linton; Fen Ditton & Fulbourn and Balsham from SE Cambs. Loses Caldecote, Cambourne, Caxton & Papworth, Swaves, Bar Hill, Girton, Longstanton and Cottenham.
Cambridge (71746, using the Boundary Assistant numbers) - lose Trumpington
Mid Cambridgeshire (76918) - the new seat. The rest of South Cambs district, Fenstanton, the 3 St Ives wards, Hemingford Grey & Houghton, Holywell-cum-Needingworth, Somersham and Warboys. Not overly keen on including the last one, but Godmanchester really ought to go with Huntingdon and this way moves fewer electors. You can argue this should be called St Ives, or St Ives & Cambourne, but I figure neither is that large and you don't want aspiring MPs to get confused and catch a train to Cornwall instead.
Huntingdon (73371) - realigns to new ward boundaries (meaning it gains the rest of Alconbury, Great Staughton and Kimbolton wards), gains Sawtry, loses 5 wards to Mid Cambridgeshire.
North West Cambridgeshire (73356) - realigns to new ward boundaries, loses all of Huntingdonshire except Ramsey, Yaxley and Stilton etc.
Peterborough (72293) - realigns to new ward boundaries, otherwise unchanged.
North East Cambridgeshire (70806) - shrinks down to just Fenland district.
After realignment to new ward boundaries, this plan would move 117485 electors. I'm not convinced it'd be the best map (in particular I like the idea of extending Peterborough south of the Nene) but I think it's useful as a point of comparison.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 7, 2021 13:48:05 GMT
Edit: I'm wondering if we could rotate the Maldon and Witham seats so they're on an East/West axis, that is to say Maldon takes the remaining Maldon district wards and the Colchester wards from Witham and Witham takes all the Chelmsford wards currently in Maldon. I'll have to check to see how the numbers work but I'm aware than on my scheme above Witham contains parts of four different districts and Chelmsford district is divided between five different constituencies which isn't ideal a straight swap left Maldon in quota but put Witham about 400 over. However moving South Hanningfield etc to Rayleigh & Wickford resolves that. I like the Maldon seat like that - Witham is a bit weird, especially going as far South as South Woodham Ferrers where there's really no connection. I guess this would fall foul of the dreaded 'minimal change rules but it helps with others (Witham comprising wards from only 2 districts rather than 4)  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 7, 2021 14:31:20 GMT
I've also taken a look at Essex and I think there are a couple of places where you can make fewer changes from the present map: - Braintree can stay unchanged, after re-alignment to new ward boundaries
- So can Brentwood & Ongar, with Harlow just grabbing Broadley from Epping Forest
- It's not least change, but you could consider swapping Victoria for St Laurence to keep the centre of Southend in one seat
- Saffron Walden can keep Rural West and Writtle
- Give Boreham and Broomfield to Maldon, then swap Wickham Bishops and Heybridge between Maldon and Witham. Separating Heybridge from Maldon isn't ideal, but the creek is a decent boundary
- It gets easier round Colchester if you swap Mersea for Stanway. This means you've got more room to play with in Colchester and can remove Mile End or Prettygate instead of Highwoods, both of which both look and are better. The downside is that bits of Stanway are in Marks Tey ward, but it's a worthwhile trade-off
- This also means you don't need to put Brightlingsea in Clacton, which I'm local enough to object strongly too. Oakleys & Wix still needs to go in, which isn't great, but it's better than Brightlingsea
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 7, 2021 15:39:17 GMT
I probably should finalise all my thoughts before posting, but it occurs to me that as I mentioned the issue with Mersea & Pyefleet being effectively non contiguous with the rest of Harwich & North Essex, this would fit much better in my revised Maldon seat where it can replace Stanway. This has the added benefit that because there are fewer electors here it enables H&NE to take Prettygate from Colchester rather than Highwood which is a much neater arrangement (though not very pretty for the Conservatives I fear)
And evidently it would help if I read the preceding post before posting lol
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 7, 2021 15:54:31 GMT
I've also taken a look at Essex and I think there are a couple of places where you can make fewer changes from the present map: - Braintree can stay unchanged, after re-alignment to new ward boundaries
- So can Brentwood & Ongar, with Harlow just grabbing Broadley from Epping Forest
I guess because I started at this end of the county, I was aware that I was working to an average of nearly 75,000 so things would get quite tight. Therefore while aware that Harlow was within quota with the addition of that ward I wanted to make the early seats as high as possible (or as close to 75k anyway) to avoid being left with too many voters elsewhere. I suppose it would be worthwhile in this sort of case to go back to the beginning to see if I can free up one or two other wards (certainly I hadn't anticipated expanding Harlow out as far as Moreton & Fyfield) |
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Post by greenhert on Jan 7, 2021 16:39:34 GMT
Essex-Suffolk in all likelihood-probably incorporating Haverhill and the rural parts of the Braintree district. I'd leave Essex alone - the 18 current seats can stand with fairly minor changes Colchester is a mess thanks to stupid ward boundary changes. In Clacton I originally added The Bentleys & Frating and The Oakleys & Wix but it seemed to leave Harwich too much out on a limb so opted to add Brightlingsea instead. Has the problem that there are no direct road links etc but we already have that (and still will (in West Mersea). The numbers work either way anyway Edit: I'm wondering if we could rotate the Maldon and Witham seats so they're on an East/West axis, that is to say Maldon takes the remaining Maldon district wards and the Colchester wards from Witham and Witham takes all the Chelmsford wards currently in Maldon. I'll have to check to see how the numbers work but I'm aware than on my scheme above Witham contains parts of four different districts and Chelmsford district is divided between five different constituencies which isn't ideal Norfolk-Suffolk would work better, and under the March 2020 figures would result in more sensibly sized Suffolk seats (the total quotas for Norfolk and Suffolk are 16.81 on these figures, compared to 17.23 on December 2019 figures). For Norfolk: Keep Great Yarmouth and North West Norfolk intact. Realign South West Norfolk to new boundaries. Add Walsingham to North Norfolk and remove it from Broadland to get both into quota. Add Wensum ward to Norwich North and add Old Costessey ward to Norwich South to compensate. Remove all Wymondham wards and Wicklewood from Mid Norfolk and transfer them to South Norfolk. Remove area around Diss from South Norfolk and add it to a new Stowmarket & Diss constituency; South Norfolk can subsequently be renamed South East Norfolk. For Suffolk: Make South Suffolk just coterminous with the Babergh district and rename Sudbury. Remove Bungay & Worlingham and Kessingland wards from Waveney and rename Waveney Lowestoft (especially since there is no longer a Waveney district) and move those to Woodbridge (a shrunken Suffolk Coastal constituency). Remove Felixstowe from current Suffolk Coastal, and the area around Kesgrave from the current Central Suffolk & Ipswich North (which is effectively abolished). Redraw Ipswich so it takes in all the Ipswich wards currently in Central Suffolk & Ipswich North, but not the three easternmost wards of Ipswich (Bixley, Priory Heath and St John). These three easternmost wards can go into a new Ipswich East & Felixstowe seat, with the redrawn Ipswich being renamed Ipswich West; the other East Suffolk wards currently in Central Suffolk & Ipswich North slot neatly into Woodbridge. Remove the following wards from West Suffolk and transfer them to Bury St Edmunds: Bardwell, Barmingham, Barrow, Ixworth, Risby, and Stanton. Remove Stowmarket, Needham Market and nearby villages (not the villages formerly in Thedwastre RDC though, such as Elmswell & Woolpit) to get Bury St Edmunds into quota. Add Mid Suffolk wards currently in Central Suffolk & Ipswich North except for Fressingfield and Stradbroke & Laxfield (to be in Woodbridge instead) to new Stowmarket & Diss constituency |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 7, 2021 17:09:37 GMT
So here's my revised plan for Essex incorporating many of EAL's suggestions  Harlow 70,190 - gains Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing Epping Forest 72,785 - loses Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing Brentwood & Ongar 74,937 - unchanged Thurrock 73,347 - loses Chadwell St Mary Basildon South & Thurrock East 74,936 - gains Chadwell St Mary, loses Vange Basildon & Billericay 76,993 - gains Vange Castle Point 76,569 - gains West Leigh Southend West 77,016 - loses West Leigh and St Laurence, gains Kursaal, Milton and Victoria Rochford & Southend East 72,644 - loses Kursaal, Milton and Victoria, gains St Laurence and Hawkwell (plus realigns with new boundaries in Rochford) Rayleigh & Wickford 75,891 - loses Hawkwell etc, gains Rettendon and Runwell and South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting Maldon 74,346 - loses the Chelmsford borough wards, gains the remainder of Maldon district plus Tiptree, Marks Tey and Layer and Mersea and Pyefleet Clacton 75,954 - gains The Bentleys & Frating and The Oakleys & Wix Harwich & Essex North 75,954 - loses The Bentleys & Frating, The Oakleys & Wix and Mersea and Pyefleet, gains Lexden, Prettygate and Stanway Colchester 74,520 - comlicated by ward boundary changes but basically loses Prettygate and Lexden Witham 76,943 - loses Colchester and Maldon district elements. gains most of the Chelmsford district wards from Maldon plus Galleywood from Chelmsford, Boreham & The Leighs and Broomfield & The Walthams from Saffron Walden Braintree 74,835 - unchanged Saffron Walden 74,469 - loses Boreham & The Leighs and Broomfield & The Walthams Chelmsford 76,454 - loses Galleywood I went for my revised plan in Maldon because I really like that seat (but Witham not so much) |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 7, 2021 17:35:46 GMT
Norfolk and Suffolk look dead simple. Great Yarmouth and Babergh can stand alone; West Suffolk, Mid Suffolk and Ipswich can support four constituencies and you can group the rest.
The following constituencies can stay unchanged (reassigning split wards to wherever got the bulk of the electors):
Great Yarmouth
NW Norfolk
South Suffolk
Ipswich
Moving one ward from Broadland to North Norfolk fixes both seats; Norwich North just grabs Thorpe Hamlet and Norwich South grabs Old Costessey; Lowestoft drops a couple of wards and the cross-border seat goes from South Norfolk to East Suffolk. Still fiddling with my map but there's nothing very interesting beyond that.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 7, 2021 17:44:01 GMT
So here's my revised plan for Essex incorporating many of EAL's suggestions Harlow 70,190 - gains Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing Epping Forest 72,785 - loses Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing Brentwood & Ongar 74,937 - unchanged Thurrock 73,347 - loses Chadwell St Mary Basildon South & Thurrock East 74,936 - gains Chadwell St Mary, loses Vange Basildon & Billericay 76,993 - gains Vange Castle Point 76,569 - gains West Leigh Southend West 77,016 - loses West Leigh and St Laurence, gains Kursaal, Milton and Victoria Rochford & Southend East 72,644 - loses Kursaal, Milton and Victoria, gains St Laurence and Hawkwell (plus realigns with new boundaries in Rochford) Rayleigh & Wickford 75,891 - loses Hawkwell etc, gains Rettendon and Runwell and South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting Maldon 74,346 - loses the Chelmsford borough wards, gains the remainder of Maldon district plus Tiptree, Marks Tey and Layer and Mersea and Pyefleet Clacton 75,954 - gains The Bentleys & Frating and The Oakleys & Wix Harwich & Essex North 75,954 - loses The Bentleys & Frating, The Oakleys & Wix and Mersea and Pyefleet, gains Lexden, Prettygate and Stanway Colchester 74,520 - comlicated by ward boundary changes but basically loses Prettygate and Lexden Witham 76,943 - loses Colchester and Maldon district elements. gains most of the Chelmsford district wards from Maldon plus Galleywood from Chelmsford, Boreham & The Leighs and Broomfield & The Walthams from Saffron Walden Braintree 74,835 - unchanged Saffron Walden 74,469 - loses Boreham & The Leighs and Broomfield & The Walthams Chelmsford 76,454 - loses Galleywood I went for my revised plan in Maldon because I really like that seat (but Witham not so much) Aside from Maldon and Witham (and I agree your version of the former is excellent, but I'm not convinced we could convince the BCE to make that much additional change when they can get away with not doing so) I think that's identical to what I cam up with. I was also considering the additional tweak of swapping Eastwood Park for Thorpe in Southend to improve the boundaries between the two seats, but can't decide if I like that idea or not. The Tories would not like that Colchester, incidentally. Quince would still have won in 2019, but on Electoral Calculus' nowcast it would go Labour by 136 votes. I rather suspect they're going to try very hard to find a scheme that keeps Lexden and Prettygate in and removes Greenstead - although the large electorate of the latter makes it difficult to find another ward that could be removed alongside it without putting HNE over the limit. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 7, 2021 18:11:49 GMT
I wondered about that in Southend too - you couldn't call it Southend West then - its pushing it as it is. Southend Coastal and Southend Outer? (thats kind of why I decided against it.)
Colchester is not good but it's inevitable that they lose Lexden because of that ridiculous ward boundary there. Prettygae was not inevitable but becomes the most logical ward to follow Lexden out. I think I saw this coming as soon as I saw the new ward boundaries (whenever that was)
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 7, 2021 22:32:19 GMT
Southend North and Southend South? Though the latter doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. Southend Pier and Southend North? Southend Prittlewell and Southend Shoebury?
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jan 8, 2021 19:51:58 GMT
Southend North and Southend South? Though the latter doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. Southend Pier and Southend North? Southend Prittlewell and Southend Shoebury? Don't forget West Bromwich West! Some very good plans on here - though Mid/Central Cambridgeshire (or other appropriate compass point) sounds better than Ramsey which could be anywhere - I have never heard of it, and I spent a year in Cambridge! And in the case of any 'doughnut' constituency around Cambridge, could "Cambridge Outer" and "Cambridge Central" become a thing? York is feeling very lonely as it is. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 8, 2021 20:16:53 GMT
Southend North and Southend South? Though the latter doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. Southend Pier and Southend North? Southend Prittlewell and Southend Shoebury? Don't forget West Bromwich West! Some very good plans on here - though Mid/Central Cambridgeshire (or other appropriate compass point) sounds better than Ramsey which could be anywhere - I have never heard of it, and I spent a year in Cambridge! And in the case of any 'doughnut' constituency around Cambridge, could "Cambridge Outer" and "Cambridge Central" become a thing? York is feeling very lonely as it is. The Scottish Parliament seat of Clydebank and Milngavie could be "West Dunbartonshire East and East Dunbartonshire West". |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 8, 2021 20:25:59 GMT
Southend North and Southend South? Though the latter doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. Southend Pier and Southend North? Southend Prittlewell and Southend Shoebury? Don't forget West Bromwich West! Some very good plans on here - though Mid/Central Cambridgeshire (or other appropriate compass point) sounds better than Ramsey which could be anywhere - I have never heard of it, and I spent a year in Cambridge! Anywhere could be anywhere if you haven't heard of it. Your ignorance or otherwise of a place is not the best criteria on which to base the naming of Parliamentary constituencies and a Mid-somewhere name is very rarely an appropriate or better sounding name for any constituency (still less 'Central' when referring to a Count constituency.) Ramsey is the major settlement (not counting Peterborough suburbs) in North Huntingdonshire (though as EAL pointed out St Ives is the largest town here, but that is on the periphery of the seat and the name is taken). Everyone else on this forum has heard of Ramsey because a) it has been the name of a Parliamentary constituency previously and b) the town council was the first local authority in the country to be controlled by UKIP. Not that it matters much how many people from outside the area have heard of it. How many people would have heard of Ince? |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 8, 2021 20:36:43 GMT
Honestly I think a lot of people in the county haven't heard of Ramsey - it's not particularly prominent on road signs, for example. I suspect more people have heard of Warboys, although that may just be because a) it's closer to a main road and b) it's a funny name.
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 8, 2021 20:52:15 GMT
Honestly I think a lot of people in the county haven't heard of Ramsey - it's not particularly prominent on road signs, for example. I suspect more people have heard of Warboys, although that may just be because a) it's closer to a main road and b) it's a funny name. c) The current UK road signs were created by him (well, his committee). |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jan 9, 2021 5:59:35 GMT
Honestly I think a lot of people in the county haven't heard of Ramsey - it's not particularly prominent on road signs, for example. I suspect more people have heard of Warboys, although that may just be because a) it's closer to a main road and b) it's a funny name. Makes me think of the character Mrs Warboys from One Foot in the Grave. Though as has been mentioned, in that part of the country the town of Stilton is a much more famous name than that of an old sitcom character. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 9, 2021 8:41:29 GMT
People know the name Stilton, but I'm not sure they necessarily associate it with the town.
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YL
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Post by YL on Jan 9, 2021 10:25:54 GMT
Honestly I think a lot of people in the county haven't heard of Ramsey - it's not particularly prominent on road signs, for example. I suspect more people have heard of Warboys, although that may just be because a) it's closer to a main road and b) it's a funny name. I find Ramsey Heights quite an amusing name given the topography of those parts. People will already know that I dislike “Mid” names, especially in larger counties, finding them vague to the point of being virtually meaningless. “Mid Derbyshire” is a particularly bad one. |
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