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Post by islington on Apr 2, 2021 21:05:10 GMT
Crucially, the central belt. Quite a few 'doubles' here: S Renfrewshire & bits of Glasgow; Glasgow South (most of); Kirkintilloch + Airdie; Falkirk + Cumbernauld; N & E Edinburgh plus Dalkieth, &c. The rest are all 'singles', varying widely in quality. I admit I've made a total hash of W Lothian but on the other hand, seats like E Kilbride, Hamilton and Motherwell came out nicely and Glasgow (north of the Clyde) gave no trouble at all.  |
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Post by islington on Apr 2, 2021 21:13:05 GMT
I've started so I'll finish ... Ayrshire is as someone suggested the other day; Dumfriesshire & Clydesdale unfortunately survives (with a peripheral bit of Dumfries itself) but at least it loses its Tweeddale element. All these seats are 'singles'.
That's it. Obviously it needs far more work but it's a start.
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Post by Eastwood on Apr 2, 2021 21:45:03 GMT
I've started so I'll finish ... Ayrshire is as someone suggested the other day; Dumfriesshire & Clydesdale unfortunately survives (with a peripheral bit of Dumfries itself) but at least it loses its Tweeddale element. All these seats are 'singles'.
That's it. Obviously it needs far more work but it's a start.
Not meaning to be rude but there are multiple abominations there. North Highlands, South Ayrshire, West Lothian, Kinross, Helensburgh, Aberdeen, Midlothian all look awful! |
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 3, 2021 1:50:16 GMT
Right, I've got something but it's terrible. It divides Scotland (protected areas aside) into 48 constituencies of which 41 are regular seats and 7 are 'doubles': that is, they are intentionally drawn with roughly double the normal electorate with a view to their being divided in two by means of a suitable ward split.
The groupings held up better than I expected. They are the same as I posted on Wednesday (10.22am) except that I ended up treating W Duns and A&B with the northern group. This gives an apparently tricky allowance of 12.73 = 13 but there's a permissibly undersize seat in the Highlands so it all worked out. It looks like this -
 (I knew you'd like it.) I don't think that Skye to Thurso seat is legal. The wording of the act is 4(1)A constituency shall not have an area of more than 13,000 square kilometres. (2)A constituency does not have to comply with rule 2(1)(a) if— (a)it has an area of more than 12,000 square kilometres, and (b)the Boundary Commission concerned are satisfied that it is not reasonably possible for the constituency to comply with that rule. The Highland North the commission proposed in 2018 is almost certainly still within quota, might actually be able to shrink it a bit, so I don't see how any undersized seat can satisfy (b). |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 3, 2021 4:56:07 GMT
I've started so I'll finish ... Ayrshire is as someone suggested the other day; Dumfriesshire & Clydesdale unfortunately survives (with a peripheral bit of Dumfries itself) but at least it loses its Tweeddale element. All these seats are 'singles'.
That's it. Obviously it needs far more work but it's a start.
Not meaning to be rude but there are multiple abominations there. North Highlands, South Ayrshire, West Lothian, Kinross, Helensburgh, Aberdeen, Midlothian all look awful! is Helemsburgh actually split by that? |
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Post by Eastwood on Apr 3, 2021 8:08:24 GMT
Not meaning to be rude but there are multiple abominations there. North Highlands, South Ayrshire, West Lothian, Kinross, Helensburgh, Aberdeen, Midlothian all look awful! is Helemsburgh actually split by that? Yes Helensburgh Central is in the Argyll seat while Helensburgh South is in the West Dunbartonshire seat. Maybe it’s unavoidable but it’s not good seat design to split a town like that. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 3, 2021 9:41:41 GMT
is Helemsburgh actually split by that? Yes Helensburgh Central is in the Argyll seat while Helensburgh South is in the West Dunbartonshire seat. Maybe it’s unavoidable but it’s not good seat design to split a town like that. No part of Helensburgh belongs in Argyll & Bute in any way. Argyll has better links with the Scottish Highlands; it should never have been in the now abolished Strathclyde region. |
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Post by Eastwood on Apr 3, 2021 9:50:19 GMT
Yes Helensburgh Central is in the Argyll seat while Helensburgh South is in the West Dunbartonshire seat. Maybe it’s unavoidable but it’s not good seat design to split a town like that. No part of Helensburgh belongs in Argyll & Bute in any way. Argyll has better links with the Scottish Highlands; it should never have been in the now abolished Strathclyde region. Well as discussed recently the important thing for Helensburgh folk at reorganisation in 1996 was not wanting to be grouped with Dumbarton. Argyll and Bute was the lesser of two evils. I certainly think a West Dunbartonshire / Helensburgh seat can work well but splitting Helensburgh isn’t an ideal solution. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 3, 2021 10:03:34 GMT
No part of Helensburgh belongs in Argyll & Bute in any way. Argyll has better links with the Scottish Highlands; it should never have been in the now abolished Strathclyde region. Well as discussed recently the important thing for Helensburgh folk at reorganisation in 1996 was not wanting to be grouped with Dumbarton. Argyll and Bute was the lesser of two evils. I certainly think a West Dunbartonshire / Helensburgh seat can work well but splitting Helensburgh isn’t an ideal solution. Why did Helensburgh not want to be grouped with Dumbarton? Helensburgh was part of Dunbartonshire before the 1975 reforms to Scottish local government. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 3, 2021 10:08:06 GMT
Yes Helensburgh Central is in the Argyll seat while Helensburgh South is in the West Dunbartonshire seat. Maybe it’s unavoidable but it’s not good seat design to split a town like that. No part of Helensburgh belongs in Argyll & Bute in any way. Argyll has better links with the Scottish Highlands; it should never have been in the now abolished Strathclyde region. The Strathclyde tax base was needed to fund road improvements etc. in Argyll. |
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Post by islington on Apr 3, 2021 12:22:51 GMT
I've done some further work on this and I hope I've addressed at least some of the points raised (not Helensburgh though). Thanks to all for comments, and special thanks to whoever it was upthread who suggested that adding Bute might allow a better scheme in Ayrshire. It does, so we'll start there.
South Ayrshire - 74719. East Ayrshire - 74354. Maybe these seats should be called 'Ayr' and 'Kilmarnock' but I'm focused on the boundaries at the moment. Central Ayrshire - 75093. I'm fighting down the temptation to call it 'Mid Ayr'. North Ayrshire and Bute - 70758. This, of course, restores an historic link.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 3, 2021 12:35:55 GMT
I've done some further work on this and I hope I've addressed at least some of the points raised (not Helensburgh though). Thanks to all for comments, and special thanks to whoever it was upthread who suggested that adding Bute might allow a better scheme in Ayrshire. It does, so we'll start there.
South Ayrshire - 74719. East Ayrshire - 74354. Maybe these seats should be called 'Ayr' and 'Kilmarnock' but I'm focused on the boundaries at the moment. Central Ayrshire - 75093. I'm fighting down the temptation to call it 'Mid Ayr'. North Ayrshire and Bute - 70758. This, of course, restores an historic link.
My main issue with that is that Bute's ferry link is to Inverclyde (Wemyss Bay), not to North Ayrshire at all. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Apr 3, 2021 12:50:23 GMT
I've done some further work on this and I hope I've addressed at least some of the points raised (not Helensburgh though). Thanks to all for comments, and special thanks to whoever it was upthread who suggested that adding Bute might allow a better scheme in Ayrshire. It does, so we'll start there.
South Ayrshire - 74719. East Ayrshire - 74354. Maybe these seats should be called 'Ayr' and 'Kilmarnock' but I'm focused on the boundaries at the moment. Central Ayrshire - 75093. I'm fighting down the temptation to call it 'Mid Ayr'. North Ayrshire and Bute - 70758. This, of course, restores an historic link.
My main issue with that is that Bute's ferry link is to Inverclyde (Wemyss Bay), not to North Ayrshire at all. though given where in Inverclyde Wemyss Bay is, this is a bit like those "oh noes, the road link leaves the constituency for a hundred yards" objections. |
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Post by islington on Apr 3, 2021 13:02:22 GMT
I don't think there a need for a map for this next batch because apart from switching Bute to N Ayrshire it's the same as I posted before. I'll comment, though, on the points raised. Dumbarton - 73473. My rationale here is that W Duns is a compact and logical area and a sound basis for a seat, but it is a few thousand short of the minimum. To its east there is no obvious addition to make up the numbers, unless you want to chop Bearsden in half or start ward-splitting in Glasgow. To the west, however, the Helensburgh & Lomond S ward is a perfect size and ideally situated; and, despite its name, it contains only the peripheries of the town of Helenburgh, the great majority of which is in Helensburgh C ward. As discussed in another thread, it's not unusual for the marginal parts of a town to find themselves in a ward that otherwise consists of rural areas that are not part of the town; and while, ideally, one would unite the two areas, this is not always possible. Helensburgh is a case in point; see also Bridgwater and numerous other instances. South Highland and Argyll - 72288. According to the figures supplied by BCS this is 11626 sq km. Bute is 129 sq km so with it or without it, the seat is short of the 12000 sq km that would allow it to go below the normal minimum electorate. West Highland - 42726. And 12313 sq km, meaning that it can have as few electors as it wants. Indeed, without Dingwall ward (a mere 120 sq km), it would have nearly 10000 fewer electors and still be legal - if it is, that is. I take the point raised by lancastrian but my answer would be that the words 'reasonably possible' should be construed as relating not only to the constituency in itself but also to the need for a legal map in adjacent areas and indeed across Scotland more widely. So, unless and until someone comes up with another plan in this area, this is the only show in town. Central Highland - 73252. Am I serious? Well, I'm not sure I am really. But it's within range and despite its absurd appearance it has surprisingly good internal connectivity: you can drive all the way from John o'Groats to Fort Augustus at the southern end of Loch Ness without once leaving the seat. So I'm sticking with it until I see a better plan from someone. 6111 sq km if you're interested. East Highland and Forres - 71050. And a piffling 3873 sq km. |
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Post by islington on Apr 3, 2021 13:30:22 GMT
For the next stage of our clockwise progress around Scotland I've done a new map because there some changes in this area.
Elgin and Banff - 75086. North Aberdeenshire - 75601. Central Aberdeenshire - 70016. Takes in two wards of Aberdeen City. Aberdeen North - 74612. Aberdeen South and Stonehaven - 74477. There's a case for treating Aberdeen separately for two seats but unless you like the inner/outer map I posted the other day it will require a ward split and the city is so close to the legal maximum for two that I worry that it won't be practicable to do this in a sensible way. Hence I've gone for a plan of switching two wards out of the city and two in, for a net saving of about 4000 voters. South Aberdeenshire and Arbroath - 76059. This seat would be immeasurably improved by exchanging Brechin and Carnoustie wards, but this would put the following two seats, combined, perilously close to the maximum for two and give us the same ward-splitting problem in Dundee that I've just sought to avoid in Aberdeen. Forfar - 75975 approx. The wards shown total 84975 but I'm assuming that about 9000 electors will be removed from (probably) Strathmartine ward and placed in the following seat. Dundee - 75230 approx. See the previous seat. The two together are 151205 so there's a reasonable amount of play.
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Post by islington on Apr 3, 2021 14:14:55 GMT
Moving south, I've done some further tinkering and come up with a non-split map that is clearly far from ideal for various reasons as noted below. But I'm posting it anyway in the hope that it may stimulate a better plan from someone else.
North Perthshire - 70256. There's nothing wrong with this in itself but it has adverse implications elsewhere. South Perthshire and Clackmannan - 72408. This doesn't look too bad at all on the map; the problem is that it includes Carse ward, on the north bank of the Tay with no bridge within the seat. It's like a better-looking Lancaster & Fleetwood. (Couldn't we just build a bridge?) Edited to add: I stand corrected. There is a bridge: the M90 crosses the Tay just below Perth and forms the boundary of the ward. This is good enough for me; I am now solidly behind this seat.
North West Fife and Kinross - 71721. Posted as much for its novelty value as anything, because I don't think I've ever before seen a seat involving three crossings of the same boundary. In practice you might prefer the much tidier seat of North East Fife from my previous plan (70452). Glenrothes and St Andrews - 74367. Or, probably better, link the Glenrothes wards with Lochgelly, Kinross and W Fife to form South West Fife and Kinross (75636). Kirkcaldy - 71444. I'm actually very happy with this seat and the following one. Dunfermline - 71723. Stirling - 70085. Coterminous with the district. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 3, 2021 14:41:01 GMT
If you want to do Aberdeen with a non-split plan, just remove Lower Deeside. It's easy enough to then have two seats made up entirely of whole wards in the rest of the city.
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Post by islington on Apr 3, 2021 14:43:11 GMT
This is always the crucial area for any Scottish map. I've made a few adjustments since yesterday and overall, I feel it could have been a lot worse.
 North West Renfrewshire - 73071. Paisley - 74915. I'm pleased to get rid of the current split of the town. (incidentally, there's something weird going on with the boundary between Paisley SE and Barrhead wards.) South East Renfrewshire - 71238 approx. I'm assuming a ward split will enable us to shift about 10000 electors - basically, the town of Barrhead itself - into the following seat. Glasgow South West - 74754 approx. The wards shown plus the town of Barrhead. Glasgow South East - 75033. Glasgow South - 72074.
Glasgow North West - 75746. Takes in Bearsden and Milngavie. Glasgow North - 71087. I think this is a better arrangement than my previous plan. Glasgow Central - 73346. Reshuffled from my previous plan to allow the creation of a seat of Glasgow N, but still a good solid city-centre seat. Glasgow East - 71807. More 'east' and less 'north' than my previous version. Kirkintilloch - 72172. I'm pleased to reunite this much carved-up town. Coatbridge and Baillieston - 75780. For the life of me I can't see how to get Coatbridge up to size without throwing in a Glasgow ward. Motherwell - 75994. Very pleased with this one. Airdrie - 76303. Upper Braes not a natural addition to this seat but it gets the numbers up. Cumbernauld - 75497 approx. I envisage that in addition to the wards shown the seat would take in Stenhousemuir from Carse ward. At a complete guess I've assumed 7000 electors, but there's a fair amount of play either way. Falkirk - 75515 approx. See comment on the previous seat.
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Post by islington on Apr 3, 2021 15:22:31 GMT
The final instalment. I've mapped the Edinburgh area because I've made changes there; everything else is as I had it before.
Rutherglen - 71612. East Kilbride - 75161. Hamilton - 72256. A huge improvement on the current treatment of the town. In fact all three seats so far are highly satisfactory. Lanark and Dumfriesshire - 76302. It's a shame to maintain the unwanted link between Dumfriesshire and the headwaters of the Clyde, but at least the Tweeddale part has gone. Dumfries and Galloway - 75284. Yes, some peripheries of Dumfries town are trimmed off. See comments on Helensburgh. West Lothian - 72098. Maybe not ideal but much improved from the convolutions of the plan I posted yesterday. Livingston - 73457. Edinburgh West and Linlithgow - 74811. Edinburgh South West - 76774. Unfortunately in order to achieve a better plan in W Lothian I had to sacrifice the very neat Central seat I proposed yesterday. This version is much less tidy but it's legal and contiguous and we need a four-ward seat somewhere, so in it goes. Edinburgh South East - 72108. And here's a three-ward seat. Edinburgh North - 75699 approx. Compared with the map, the plan is that about 7500-10000 voters in Leith Walk - basically, the southern part of the ward - would be transferred to the following seat. Edited to add: Actually, having had a closer look, it's very tempting to run the boundary along Leith Walk itself, if that will shift enough electors.
Edinburgh East and Dalkeith - 74859 approx. See comment on the previous seat. I'd have preferred to take Musselburgh as the non-Edinburgh element but it had adverse knock-on consequences that I couldn't resolve. Midlothian and Tweeddale - 76914. A not-great name for a not-great seat, but there is a precedent for linking Midlothian with Peebles. Scottish Borders - 74387. East Lothian - 70784. Less Dunbar.
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Post by Eastwood on Apr 3, 2021 17:20:35 GMT
Well as discussed recently the important thing for Helensburgh folk at reorganisation in 1996 was not wanting to be grouped with Dumbarton. Argyll and Bute was the lesser of two evils. I certainly think a West Dunbartonshire / Helensburgh seat can work well but splitting Helensburgh isn’t an ideal solution. Why did Helensburgh not want to be grouped with Dumbarton? Helensburgh was part of Dunbartonshire before the 1975 reforms to Scottish local government. Council Tax levels, snobbery and avoiding a likely Labour controlled council.. These days with national limits on Council Tax rises and STV, the main remaining reason not to return to Dunbartonshire is the snobbery. But you’d still be a brave politician to propose reuniting Helensburgh and Dunbartonshire. |
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