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Post by John Chanin on Oct 14, 2021 17:23:01 GMT
The BCS appears to have ignored ward boundaries completely in Edinburgh. Given that all we have at the moment is maps, does anyone know what they have done and why.
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Post by islington on Oct 14, 2021 17:36:52 GMT
You can tidy up the North East if you detach Kincorth/Nigg/Cove from Aberdeen (still giving the city two seats)  Or Lower Deeside, all of which was in Kincardine and Deeside before 1997. I agree that maintaining the existing boundaries in West Aberdeenshire is a case of putting the cart before the horse, especially since it has resulted in splitting Moray between three seats rather than two. Yes, and taking Lwr Deeside even allows you (to the extent that it matters, which is probably not much) to divide the rest of the city north and south without ward splits, thus:
Aberdeen N - 69834 Aberdeen S - 71681 Kincardine and Deeside - 76034
(Or you could swap George Str and Tillydrone for Hilton and Midstocket for an alternative and equally legal N-S split.)
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 14, 2021 17:41:22 GMT
Anyone done notionals yet?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,918
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Post by YL on Oct 14, 2021 17:42:51 GMT
The BCS appears to have ignored ward boundaries completely in Edinburgh. Given that all we have at the moment is maps, does anyone know what they have done and why. I think they've just preferred to follow the existing constituency boundaries than to align to the new wards. Indeed Edinburgh South West appears to be completely unchanged, and the boundary between East and North & Leith is too. The new boundary between East and South south of Holyrood Park does follow a ward boundary, and the new one between West and North & Leith does partially. |
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Post by afleitch on Oct 14, 2021 18:16:16 GMT
Anyone done notionals yet? I had a quick look. I think Gordon and Moray South 'flips' from SNP to Tory as it's losing part of Aberdeen. Highland East and Elgin, which is sort of the successor to Moray is probably SNP because it takes in a chunk of Inverness, so overall the Tories lose nothing. The Lib Dems lose a Highland seat as the new Highland North is taking in a chunk of Blackford's seat. They also probably might just lose North East Fife because it's now taking in Kennoway and Windygates. So overall I think we're looking at the Lib Dems suffering two losses and everyone else staying where they are. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 14, 2021 19:14:30 GMT
Bloody idiots. Truthful headline would be: Scots refuse to breed as fast as English.
The headline doesn’t make any reference to numbers, or reduction in numbers Furthermore reducing the number of MPs in Scotland by two (from 59 to 57) does not count as "slashing" the number of MPs. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 14, 2021 19:15:34 GMT
The majority of these proposed new constituencies are either awkward or downright dreadful, apart from the two seats entirely in Aberdeen which actually makes sense. There is no need to split up Inverness or Moray at all.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 14, 2021 20:10:12 GMT
Anyone done notionals yet? I don't think we will see any notionals for a while as the Scottish Boundary Commission have NOT released a spreadsheet showing which wards are in which constituency (unlike England and Wales), in fact everything is PDF (and the main report maps are low res PDF in a PDF), but looking at the result from 2019 and this new map I believe that Labour will start off with Edinburgh South, the Lib Dems will start off with Orkney and Shetland, Edinburgh West, the Conservatives will start off with Dumfries and Galloway, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk with the SNP getting everything else but the constituencies of Banff and Buchan, Gordon and Moray South, North East Fife and Highland North are a bit questionable, so my belief is: Lab 1, Lib Dem no less than 2, Con no less than 4, and the SNP on 48 - 50. Using Ben Walker's figures for England and my calculations for Wales that brings the GB total to: Con 369 (min), Lab 198, SNP 48 (min), NI 18, Lib Dem 12 (min), Plaid 2, Green 1 meaning a starting Conservative majority of 88. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 14, 2021 20:20:57 GMT
ElectoralCalculus rushed out some notionals. They had the overall seat distribution in 2019 as SNP 48, C 6, L Dem 2, Lab 1 - so the two lost seats are both Lib Dem losses. In effect they say that Glasgow Central and Ross, Skye and Lochaber are both abolished (SNP losses), but North East Fife and Highland North both flip from Lib Dem to SNP. Also Moray -> Highland East and Elgin is a flip from Conservative to SNP, but Gordon -> Gordon and Moray South is a flip from SNP to Conservative to balance it out. See: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Oct 14, 2021 20:41:33 GMT
Well it's nice (not) to see the lamentable Highland North and Highland Central make a return.
Kelvin North and Kelvin South are highlights though, I had no idea where they were.
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Oct 14, 2021 21:13:50 GMT
ElectoralCalculus rushed out some notionals. They had the overall seat distribution in 2019 as SNP 48, C 6, L Dem 2, Lab 1 - so the two lost seats are both Lib Dem losses. In effect they say that Glasgow Central and Ross, Skye and Lochaber are both abolished (SNP losses), but North East Fife and Highland North both flip from Lib Dem to SNP. Also Moray -> Highland East and Elgin is a flip from Conservative to SNP, but Gordon -> Gordon and Moray South is a flip from SNP to Conservative to balance it out. See: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.htmlWeirdly it doesn’t give 2019 notional figures for each seat, but does manage to give ward-by-ward breakdowns for a hypothetical election held tomorrow. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 14, 2021 22:16:30 GMT
Predictable from the Nat onal grievance monkeys. Both of them. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Oct 14, 2021 23:07:48 GMT
Predictable from the Nat onal grievance monkeys. Both of them. They constantly say that Scotland's voice at Westminster is useless anyway yet two seats is apparently front page news |
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Post by rivers10 on Oct 14, 2021 23:14:41 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 14, 2021 23:25:25 GMT
Anyone done notionals yet? I don't think we will see any notionals for a while as the Scottish Boundary Commission have NOT released a spreadsheet showing which wards are in which constituency (unlike England and Wales), in fact everything is PDF (and the main report maps are low res PDF in a PDF), but looking at the result from 2019 and this new map I believe that Labour will start off with Edinburgh South, the Lib Dems will start off with Orkney and Shetland, Edinburgh West, the Conservatives will start off with Dumfries and Galloway, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk with the SNP getting everything else but the constituencies of Banff and Buchan, Gordon and Moray South, North East Fife and Highland North are a bit questionable, so my belief is: Lab 1, Lib Dem no less than 2, Con no less than 4, and the SNP on 48 - 50. Using Ben Walker's figures for England and my calculations for Wales that brings the GB total to: Con 369 (min), Lab 198, SNP 48 (min), NI 18, Lib Dem 12 (min), Plaid 2, Green 1 meaning a starting Conservative majority of 88. They haven't, but I have.
I've included population data from the 2011 census - it's obviously somewhat out of date but it's probably the best we have in lieu of more detailed electorate data. This is mainly to illustrate how the ward splits work - for example about 20% of Midstocket/Rosemount ward is in Aberdeen South (the area immediately north of Union Street) while 80% is in Aberdeen North (the rest of the ward).
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 15, 2021 4:59:37 GMT
ElectoralCalculus rushed out some notionals. They had the overall seat distribution in 2019 as SNP 48, C 6, L Dem 2, Lab 1 - so the two lost seats are both Lib Dem losses. In effect they say that Glasgow Central and Ross, Skye and Lochaber are both abolished (SNP losses), but North East Fife and Highland North both flip from Lib Dem to SNP. Also Moray -> Highland East and Elgin is a flip from Conservative to SNP, but Gordon -> Gordon and Moray South is a flip from SNP to Conservative to balance it out. See: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.htmlThat's the information I was waiting for (the percentage similarity), however whilst I will be able to download that page I won't be able to do any calculations until at least Tuesday (as I am off to Basingstoke at 9.52am by bus, to catch a train leaving at 11.28am) and won't be back until at least 6.30pm on Monday, however when I do do those calculations I will add it to the list I have already and, with permission, produce a Con defence table and Lab battleground as soon as I am able to. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 15, 2021 7:15:09 GMT
I don't think we will see any notionals for a while as the Scottish Boundary Commission have NOT released a spreadsheet showing which wards are in which constituency (unlike England and Wales), in fact everything is PDF (and the main report maps are low res PDF in a PDF), but looking at the result from 2019 and this new map I believe that Labour will start off with Edinburgh South, the Lib Dems will start off with Orkney and Shetland, Edinburgh West, the Conservatives will start off with Dumfries and Galloway, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk with the SNP getting everything else but the constituencies of Banff and Buchan, Gordon and Moray South, North East Fife and Highland North are a bit questionable, so my belief is: Lab 1, Lib Dem no less than 2, Con no less than 4, and the SNP on 48 - 50. Using Ben Walker's figures for England and my calculations for Wales that brings the GB total to: Con 369 (min), Lab 198, SNP 48 (min), NI 18, Lib Dem 12 (min), Plaid 2, Green 1 meaning a starting Conservative majority of 88. They haven't, but I have.
I've included population data from the 2011 census - it's obviously somewhat out of date but it's probably the best we have in lieu of more detailed electorate data. This is mainly to illustrate how the ward splits work - for example about 20% of Midstocket/Rosemount ward is in Aberdeen South (the area immediately north of Union Street) while 80% is in Aberdeen North (the rest of the ward).
I have done something similar which was where my frustrated Edinburgh comment came from. You can make the electorates add up by apportioning wards - sometimes this is easy because of grouping, but where many wards cross constituency boundaries you are reduced to looking up population data and looking at maps. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Oct 15, 2021 8:26:53 GMT
I take it East Renfrewshire stays the same? There were boundary changes at Scottish Parliament level (called Eastwood) in 2011 there that benefited the Tories quite considerably
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 15, 2021 8:33:27 GMT
I take it East Renfrewshire stays the same? There were boundary changes at Scottish Parliament level (called Eastwood) in 2011 there that benefited the Tories quite considerably East Renfrewshire is unaltered. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 15, 2021 9:06:06 GMT
The BCS appears to have ignored ward boundaries completely in Edinburgh. Given that all we have at the moment is maps, does anyone know what they have done and why. I think they've just preferred to follow the existing constituency boundaries than to align to the new wards. Indeed Edinburgh South West appears to be completely unchanged, and the boundary between East and North & Leith is too. The new boundary between East and South south of Holyrood Park does follow a ward boundary, and the new one between West and North & Leith does partially. Although the number of electors in Edinburgh SW is exactly the same, this appears to be a coincidence, as the map clearly shows it taking in part of Drum Brae and losing part of Sighthill. |
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