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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 6, 2021 12:40:06 GMT
A first draft of a seven seat Oxfordshire. Banbury All of Cherwell district except the Kidlington and Bicester wards and Launton & Otmoor; from West Oxfordshire district Chipping Norton, Kingham etc., The Bartons. 72,008 Bicester & Thame From Cherwell district the Kidlington and Bicester wards and Launton & Otmoor; from South Oxfordshire district Chinnor, Forest Hill & Holton, Hasely Brook, Thame; from West Oxfordshire district Woodstock. 72,867 Witney The parts of West Oxfordshire district not in the two above seats. 70,276 Oxford West & Abingdon From Vale of White Horse the Abingdon wards, Botley & Sunningwell, Cumnor, Marcham, Wootton; from Oxford city Carfax & Jericho, Cutteslowe & Sunnymead, Osney & St Thomas, Summertown, Walton Manor, Wolvercote. 72,004 Oxford East All of Oxford city not in the previous seat. 72,371 Henley All of South Oxfordshire district not in Bicester & Thame except the three Didcot wards; from Vale of White Horse Blewbury & Harwell. 70,233 Wantage From South Oxfordshire district the three Didcot wards; from Vale of White Horse everything not in Henley or Oxford West & Abingdon. 69,972 Basically the new seat is formed from the Bicester and Kidlington areas plus the north of the old Henley seat, OxWAb loses Kidlington but regains Oxford city centre, Banbury takes on Chipping Norton, and Wantage and Henley are adjusted to make the numbers work. The boundary around Didcot is a bit awkward and double crosses the district border; I did find a way of avoiding the double crossing that by moving Didcot into Henley but it gave Wantage a weird extension east of the Thames. A variation on this which avoids your problems around Dicot and having to cross the Thames at all at that point (except in as much as Sandford & The Whittinghams does)  The map doesn't reflect the new ward boundaries in Oxford for which electorates are provided. The two Oxford wards retained in Abingdon are Osney & St Thomas and Wolvercote. Witney 73593 Banbury 72008 Bicester & Headington 71438 Oxford 70697 Abingdon 69852 Wantage 72053 Henley 70090 |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jan 6, 2021 17:43:49 GMT
 Milton Keynes North 71264 Milton Keynes South 76064 Buckingham & Bletchley 73772 Marlow & Princes Risborough 75942 Aylesbury 73318 Chesham & Amersham 70993 Wycombe 75088 Beaconsfield 70646 Unfortunate that Chesham & Amersham gets broken up like that when its fine as it is but there's no way to get Beaconsfield within quota once you've taken out Marlow (or if you didn't take out Marlow) Gosh, Labour won’t be happy with Bletchley being extracted from marginal MK. I haven't got into the detail yet but that is proper pitchforks stuff in MK and a Tory gerrymander. If it's the only plausible solution there will be a big reaction here. I think that splits the Labour areas of strength evenly between the 3 MK seats but each will be comfortably overpowered by the Tory strongholds. Bletchley doesn't face Buckingham, and even the more sensible position at the last review (move the west flank in with Buckingham) was controversial. Labour will likely want N/S splits rather than E/W. That would be a Newport Pagnell and East seat - safe Tory with all the rural sits MK Central: if you include as much of Wolverton, Stantonbury,CMK,Woughton,Bletchley as you can, that would be notionally Labour. MK West and Buckingham: West flank and Buckingham, Tory. As for us, well not much we can do on current numbers. But an eastern flank seat with Newport Pagnell in would actually have a majority of Lib Dem Councillors so clearly some potential. Look forward to getting stuck into the detail. |
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jan 6, 2021 18:43:07 GMT
For Oxfordshire, I've tried the following:
Oxford West and Bicester: All Oxford wards in the OxW&A as well as Carfax & Jericho; Woodstock from West Oxfordshire; all Bicester wards, Kidlington wards, and Launton & Otmoor.
Oxford East: All Oxford wards, minus ones above.
Banbury: All Cherwell wards except ones mentioned above; from West Oxfordshire, Chipping Norton, Kingham, and the Bartons.
Witney: All West Oxfordshire wards expect Woodstock, Chipping Norton, Kingham, and the Bartons.
Abingdon and Didcot: All Abingdon wards, Cumnor, Wootton, Marcham, Drayon, Botley & Sunningwell, and Kennington & Radley; all Didcot wards.
Wantage and Wallingford: Current Wantage constituency, minus Didcot wards, plus Sandford & the Wittenhams and Berinsfield from South Oxfordshire. Unfortunately, the inclusion of the additional South Oxfordshire wards does create a weird shape and crosses the Thames; however, arguably, most of these villages (Berinsfield, Dorchester, the Wittenhams) look more to Wallingford that they do Henley.
Henley: Current Henley constituency, minus Sandford & the Wittenhams, Berinsfield, and all Cherwell wards.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 6, 2021 22:44:18 GMT
Gosh, Labour won’t be happy with Bletchley being extracted from marginal MK. I haven't got into the detail yet but that is proper pitchforks stuff in MK and a Tory gerrymander. If it's the only plausible solution there will be a big reaction here. I think that splits the Labour areas of strength evenly between the 3 MK seats but each will be comfortably overpowered by the Tory strongholds. Bletchley doesn't face Buckingham, and even the more sensible position at the last review (move the west flank in with Buckingham) was controversial. Labour will likely want N/S splits rather than E/W. That would be a Newport Pagnell and East seat - safe Tory with all the rural sits MK Central: if you include as much of Wolverton, Stantonbury,CMK,Woughton,Bletchley as you can, that would be notionally Labour. MK West and Buckingham: West flank and Buckingham, Tory. As for us, well not much we can do on current numbers. But an eastern flank seat with Newport Pagnell in would actually have a majority of Lib Dem Councillors so clearly some potential. Look forward to getting stuck into the detail. Well it wasn;t a deliberate gerrymander - I tried every possible combination and I don't think anything else is possible without splitting wards. You're welcome to try. As for Lib Dem potential in NE Milton Keynes.. I think we've heard that one before  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 6, 2021 22:48:09 GMT
 Hastings & Rye 74307 Bexhill & Battle 72143 Eastbourne 73322 Crowborough 73934 Hailsham 71231 Brighton East 70673 Brighton Central 74914 Hove 73726 Lewes 75971 East Grinstead 73003 Crawley 74446 Worthing East & Shoreham 75466 Worthing West 76293 Arundel & Littlehampton 75238 Bognor Regis 75377 Chichester 75747 Horsham 76981 |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jan 8, 2021 15:18:50 GMT
For Oxfordshire, I've tried the following: Oxford West and Bicester: All Oxford wards in the OxW&A as well as Carfax & Jericho; Woodstock from West Oxfordshire; all Bicester wards, Kidlington wards, and Launton & Otmoor. Banbury: All Cherwell wards except ones mentioned above; from West Oxfordshire, Chipping Norton, Kingham, and the Bartons. Witney: All West Oxfordshire wards expect Woodstock, Chipping Norton, Kingham, and the Bartons. Abingdon and Didcot: All Abingdon wards, Cumnor, Wootton, Marcham, Drayon, Botley & Sunningwell, and Kennington & Radley; all Didcot wards. Wantage and Wallingford: Current Wantage constituency, minus Didcot wards, plus Sandford & the Wittenhams and Berinsfield from South Oxfordshire. Unfortunately, the inclusion of the additional South Oxfordshire wards does create a weird shape and crosses the Thames; however, arguably, most of these villages (Berinsfield, Dorchester, the Wittenhams) look more to Wallingford that they do Henley. Henley: Current Henley constituency, minus Sandford & the Wittenhams, Berinsfield, and all Cherwell wards. Would it be possible to do a Wallingford - Didcot-Abingdon seat? Didcot and Abingdon is good, but Didcot is really closely connected to Wallingford as well and the west/north of Abingdon wards can be stuck in Wantage as a replacement for Wallingford and the riverside wards in South Oxon. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jan 8, 2021 15:57:25 GMT
Didcot,Wallingford and Abingdon constituency -
Electorate : 71,823
1) Abingdon Abbey Northcourt - 4,371
2) Abingdon Caldecott - 5,256
3) Abingdon Dunmore - 4,392
4) Abingdon Fitzharris - 4,447
5) Abingdon Peachcroft - 4,925
6) Botley and Sunningwell - 4,733
7) Kennington and Radley - 4,857
8) Cholsey - 6,864
9) Didcot North East - 6,842
10) Didcot South - 8,313
11) Didcot West - 5,378
12) Wallingford - 6,082
13) Sutton Courtenay- 2,415
14) Sandford and the Wittenhams - 2,948
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jan 8, 2021 16:05:00 GMT
For Oxfordshire, I've tried the following: Oxford West and Bicester: All Oxford wards in the OxW&A as well as Carfax & Jericho; Woodstock from West Oxfordshire; all Bicester wards, Kidlington wards, and Launton & Otmoor. Banbury: All Cherwell wards except ones mentioned above; from West Oxfordshire, Chipping Norton, Kingham, and the Bartons. Witney: All West Oxfordshire wards expect Woodstock, Chipping Norton, Kingham, and the Bartons. Abingdon and Didcot: All Abingdon wards, Cumnor, Wootton, Marcham, Drayon, Botley & Sunningwell, and Kennington & Radley; all Didcot wards. Wantage and Wallingford: Current Wantage constituency, minus Didcot wards, plus Sandford & the Wittenhams and Berinsfield from South Oxfordshire. Unfortunately, the inclusion of the additional South Oxfordshire wards does create a weird shape and crosses the Thames; however, arguably, most of these villages (Berinsfield, Dorchester, the Wittenhams) look more to Wallingford that they do Henley. Henley: Current Henley constituency, minus Sandford & the Wittenhams, Berinsfield, and all Cherwell wards. Would it be possible to do a Wallingford - Didcot-Abingdon seat? Didcot and Abingdon is good, but Didcot is really closely connected to Wallingford as well and the west/north of Abingdon wards can be stuck in Wantage as a replacement for Wallingford and the riverside wards in South Oxon. You could, for instance, have the following: Abingdon-Didcot-Wallingford: From the Vale, all Abingdon wards, Kennington & Radley, and Botley & Sunningwell, and Sutton Courtenay; from South Oxfordshire, all Didcot wards, Cholsey, and Wallingford (70,724). It's a slightly weird shaped seat; however, I think, it still works on the basis of community connections. And if you wanted to be a 'purist', you could split the Sandford & the Wittenhams ward to include the area south of the Thames. You could, as you have done in your last post, add the whole Sandford ward, which, in my opinion, makes it look better anyway. Wantage/Berkshire Downs/Ridgeway: From the Vale, Ridgeway, Stanford, Steventon & the Hanneys, Blewbury & Harwell, Drayton, Thames, Faringdon, Grove North, Hendreds, Marcham, Wantage & Grove Brook, Wantage Charlton, Watchfield & Shrivenham, Kingston Bagpuize, Wootton, and Cumnor; from West Berkshire, Downlands, Lambourn, Basildon, and Ridgeway (75,479). To make up the numbers, you'd need to include some ward from the West Berkshire district - those along the Ridgeway. From a numerical point of view, not all of those wards are needed; however, aesthetically, it makes sense to include them all. It might be the case that 'Oxfordshire' has to be paired with 'Berkshire' anyway. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jan 8, 2021 16:08:59 GMT
Would it be possible to do a Wallingford - Didcot-Abingdon seat? Didcot and Abingdon is good, but Didcot is really closely connected to Wallingford as well and the west/north of Abingdon wards can be stuck in Wantage as a replacement for Wallingford and the riverside wards in South Oxon. You could, for instance, have the following: Abingdon-Didcot-Wallingford: From the Vale, all Abingdon wards, Kennington & Radley, and Botley & Sunningwell, and Sutton Courtenay; from South Oxfordshire, all Didcot wards, Cholsey, and Wallingford (70,724). It's a slightly weird shaped seat; however, I think, it still works on the basis of community connections. And if you wanted to be a 'purist', you could split the Sandford & the Wittenhams ward to include the area south of the Thames. Wantage/Berkshire Downs/Ridgeway: From the Vale, Ridgeway, Stanford, Steventon & the Hanneys, Blewbury & Harwell, Drayton, Thames, Faringdon, Grove North, Hendreds, Marcham, Wantage & Grove Brook, Wantage Charlton, Watchfield & Shrivenham, Kingston Bagpuize, Wootton, and Cumnor; from West Berkshire, Downlands, Lambourn, Basildon, and Ridgeway (75,479). To make up the numbers, you'd need to include some ward from the West Berkshire district - those along the Ridgeway. From a numerical point of view, not all of those wards are needed; however, aesthetically, it makes sense to included them all. It might be the case that 'Oxfordshire' has to be paired with 'Berkshire' anyway. That would make things a lot better in official Berks too because Newbury would be smaller then and wouldn't need to shed as many wards to Reading West. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jan 8, 2021 16:11:15 GMT
It shows that that, if all of Berkshire was in a Berks district, there wouldn't be nearly as many problems with boundaries as this.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 8, 2021 17:26:56 GMT
It shows that that, if all of Berkshire was in a Berks district, there wouldn't be nearly as many problems with boundaries as this. Berkshire for the Berks! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 8, 2021 19:27:54 GMT
A drastic reordering of things in East Kent - might as well take the opportunity to do so elsewhere too (Maidstone, Medway)  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 8, 2021 19:43:50 GMT
An alternative arrangement with a bit more reordering in the West  |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 8, 2021 20:08:13 GMT
A drastic reordering of things in East Kent - might as well take the opportunity to do so elsewhere too (Maidstone, Medway) Drastic indeed, and I haven't had the time to work on the numbers this time, but I did a lot of work on possible Kent solutions last year but never got so far as putting them on here- I abandoned them as unlikely to meet minimum change criteria, but they were similar to this in many respects- I had something like your Hythe & Tenterden then, and Dover/ Folkestone and Canterbury / Faversham. I do like your more or less all-urban Maidstone seat too. Guess that would definitely be the Lib Dem target! Rochester & Chatham and Medway looks a bit ugly on the map, but then it always was a bit ugly in fact. I suppose I come back to the question will the authorities wear anything as radical as this? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 8, 2021 20:14:53 GMT
A drastic reordering of things in East Kent - might as well take the opportunity to do so elsewhere too (Maidstone, Medway) Drastic indeed, and I haven't had the time to work on the numbers this time, but I did a lot of work on possible Kent solutions last year but never got so far as putting them on here- I abandoned them as unlikely to meet minimum change criteria, but they were similar to this in many respects- I had something like your Hythe & Tenterden then, and Dover/ Folkestone and Canterbury / Faversham. I do like your more or less all-urban Maidstone seat too. Guess that would definitely be the Lib Dem target! Rochester & Chatham and Medway looks a bit ugly on the map, but then it always was a bit ugly in fact. I suppose I come back to the question will the authorities wear anything as radical as this? Probably not as far as that one goes as there's no need to change 'Gravesham' at all and Rochester & Strood and Chatham & Aylesford can stand with minimal change (River to Chatham which then loses the Larkfield wards). Obviously drastic change does need to occur in the East of the county but again possibly not that drastic. I'll have another play around when the numbers are loaded on Boundary Assistant cos it takes a while shifting around rows on a spreadsheet |
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Post by hullenedge on Jan 8, 2021 22:10:25 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 9, 2021 15:17:50 GMT
Numbers are quite tight in Surrey for 12 whole seats, options fairly limited. This is the best I can do so far  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 9, 2021 15:18:51 GMT
I'm not overkeen on a Berks/Hants crossing that this implies mind you, though something plausible may be possible in the Sandhurst/Yateley area
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 9, 2021 16:51:07 GMT
I'm not overkeen on a Berks/Hants crossing that this implies mind you, though something plausible may be possible in the Sandhurst/Yateley area An arrangement centred on Sandhurst doesn't work at all - causes an absolute mess in East Berkshire. However while I don't much like it, linking Newbury and Thatcham with neighbouring rural wards from Hampshire does allow the rest of Berkshire to stay in good shape and avoids the dreaded and much-mooted Mid Berkshire. How this will play out in the rest of Hampshire we will have to see...  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 9, 2021 17:03:41 GMT
Alternatively, minimum change to Newbury and make the link in the middle of the county  |
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