YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,209
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Post by YL on Mar 28, 2021 16:01:43 GMT
I think it's better to have the town centre in the all-Northampton seat and the Dustons in the one with Towcester.
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Post by islington on Mar 28, 2021 16:19:43 GMT
I think it's better to have the town centre in the all-Northampton seat and the Dustons in the one with Towcester. Well, I'm not so sure.
But at any rate, I'd like to point out that about three days ago we were scrambling desperately for any solution at all that might conceivably work, and now we have the relative luxury of debating what we want to do with the Dustons.
This is progress.
Edited to add: If you did this, i.e. swap the Dustons for Castle and Delapre, you could almost get away with calling the all-No'ton seat simply 'Northampton' and the other 'South Northamptonshire' - electorates 75570 and 76020 respectively. But I still think I prefer my plan as posted.
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 28, 2021 19:30:16 GMT
As usual I have worked on my own without looking at others who are much quicker. For Northamptonshire you need 1 9-ward seat (which has to be in Northampton) and 6 8-ward seats. However the average electorate required is quite high, so it is not straightforward to find a solution. While Northampton has 17 wards, making 2 seats without crossing the boundary leaves you with not enough voters for the rest of the county (or at least there may be a solution involving cutting one or more towns in half, but I reject this out of hand). There are many acceptable 9 ward arrangements in Northampton.
After some hours of playing with it, I have come up with an arrangement I think acceptable, which I will list before looking at other proposals
Northampton North (75,536): Duston W, Duston E, Dallington Spencer, Kingsthorpe N, Kingsthorpe S, St George, Castle, Boothville, Headlands Northampton S & Towcester (75,555): Abington, Delapre, Nene Valley, E Hunsbury, Sixfields, Bugbrooke, Towcester, Deanshanger Daventry (75,354): Middleton Cheney, Brackley, Silverstone, Woodford, Daventry W, Daventry E, Long Buckby, Braunston Kettering (74,999): Brixworth, Moulton, Rothwell, Desborough, 4 Kettering wards Corby (75,232): Corby Rural, 4 Corby wards, Oundle, Thrapston, Ise Rushden (76,693): Burton, Finedon, Irthlingborough, Raunds, Higham Ferrers, Rushden x2, Irchester Wellingborough & Northampton E (76,530): Wellingborough x3, Earls Barton, Talavera, Billing, Riverside Park, Hackleton
These are all pretty good except for the last one, which is a bit clunky.
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Post by mattb on Mar 28, 2021 20:46:38 GMT
I tried to do Northants with minimum change ... I'm not sure it is worth it. S Northants 76831 W Northants 75354 Northampton C 76016 mid-Northants 76275 Wellingborough 75940 Corby/E N'hants 76706 Kettering 72777
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 29, 2021 18:56:15 GMT
This looks awful, but I think it actually works pretty well: Kettering (72777) - unchanged Corby (76706) - loses Raunds Wellingborough (76270) - gains Raunds, loses Irchester and Earls Barton Mid Northamptonshire (76299) - Leftovers, essentially. Brixworth and Moulton from Daventry, the two Duston wards from Northampton South, Earls Barton and Irchester from Wellingborough, Deanshanger and Hackleton & Grange Park from South Northants Northampton North (75713) - gains Dallington Spencer and Castle Northampton South & Towcester (76780) - I'm not sure if it takes more from South Northants to Northampton South, I'm assuming it's the successor to the latter. Gains southern bits of the old Northampton borough, plus Bugbrooke and Towcester & Roade wards Daventry (75354) - five wards from the current Daventry seat, three from South Northants If you're willing to split wards, I suspect it's possible to swap the two Duston wards and Grange Park (plus maybe another parish or two) for Bugbrooke and Towcester. But yes, the elephant in the room is that Wellingborough seat, which relies on touch-point contiguity, which you normally only see in horrific American gerrymanders. In this case, however, there's still a road connecting the two bits of the seat, and in practice nobody lives in the parts of Irchester division north of the A45, which connects Wellingborough and Rushden to each other extremely well. It looks bad, but in terms of actual representation of communities it's much less of a problem than the bit of Wellingborough in Earls Barton division.
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Foggy
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Long may it rain
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Post by Foggy on Mar 30, 2021 5:07:50 GMT
The boundary between Higham Ferrers and Finedon wards must be mere millimetres long! However much of a justification you've made there, the Commission would surely never go for that.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,209
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Post by YL on Mar 30, 2021 7:01:26 GMT
The boundary between Higham Ferrers and Finedon wards must be mere millimetres long! However much of a justification you've made there, the Commission would surely never go for that. Zooming in suggests it is a genuine quadripoint: the River Nene is a ward boundary and so is a road which crosses it. I looked at this myself and decided it probably wouldn't be acceptable.
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Post by islington on Mar 30, 2021 10:38:06 GMT
I mean, you could have the following arrangement for N Nhants, which has a lot going for it including much less change to the current Corby seat and uniting Wellingborough with its peripheral northern housing estate. But I didn't post it because of the constriction in the middle of the Kettering seat (although it's not a point boundary - I reckon it's about 250m across at its narrowest point and the two halves are even linked by country lanes).
I'd be loth to propose a seat like this except in extremis, maybe not even then.
But while we're on the subject of Nhants I'd like to thank East Anglian Lefty for his 'organizing thoughts' post a little way upthread, which I found very helpful (even though I ended up with a 'three in, three out' arrangement of No'ton town, compared with the 'two in, two out' that he suggested).
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 30, 2021 12:24:35 GMT
I don't think the BCE would go for this, to be clear. But I do think that in practical terms, in terms of connecting similar communities in close proximity to one another, it has a lot to be said for it - especially since if you moved the boundary south to the A45 nobody would bat an eyelid, but that would shift a single-digit number of electors between the two seats.
I would also point out that it works rather better on the ground than schemes adding Towcester and Hackleton to Northampton but not Bugbrooke, since whilst the shared ward boundary is rather longer I don't think a road actually goes through it, and settlements between Towcester and Northampton which look to one town or another are in a separate seat from both.
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Post by mattb on Mar 31, 2021 12:12:46 GMT
Had another attempt at Northants ... N'hampton W & Towcester 74090 Daventry & Brackley 76163 Northampton E 76598 Wellingborough 76697 S Northants 76868 Corby & E Northants 76706 Kettering 72777 (unchanged)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 8, 2021 0:23:56 GMT
I would propose split wards here to enable minimum disruption to existing arrangements. The basic form would be thus: Corby: The five ex-Corby borough wards plus Irthlingborough, Oundle and Thrapston (basically loses Raunds) - 76,706 Wellingborough: Raunds, Rushden x 2, Higham Ferrers, Finedon*, Brickhill and Queensway, Croyland and Swanspool, Hatton Park - 76,270 Kettering: The 8 divisions covering the ex borough of Kettering 72,777 Northampton North: Abington and Phippsville, Boothville and Parklands, Castle, Dallington Spencer, Headlands, Kingsthorpe North, Kingsthorpe South, St. George, Talavera - 75,713 Northampton South: Billing and Rectory Farm, Delapre and Rushmere, Duston East, Duston West and St. Crispin, East Hunsbury and Shelfleys, Nene Valley, Riverside Park, Sixfields - 71,512 Daventry: the seven ex-Daventry district divisions plus Earls Baron - 74,815 South Northamtonshire: the seven ex-South Northamptonshire divisions plus Irchester* - 82,106 I would then move three parishes to bring South Northamptonshire into quota. Firstly Grange Park (electorate 2,968) moves into Northampton South. Second Irchester parish (electorate c. 4,000) moves into Wellingborough, Finally, as that pushes Wellingborough over quota, Finedon parish (electorate c, 3,500) moves to Kettering. This does involve three split wards (Irchester, Finedon, Hackleton and Grange Park) which may be non-ideal and it does involve two crossings of the new district boundaries (which I don't care about), but seems better than non-split-ward alternatives Much to my surprise it looks like this is very substantially what they have proposed here
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,444
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Post by European Lefty on Jun 8, 2021 0:29:29 GMT
I notice that we still have a "Northampton South" that touches the towns norther border. At leas it does actually include the south of the town now
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 8, 2021 8:51:43 GMT
Wellingborough and Raunds is a very daft name. It's not even the largest place in the constituency beginning with R.
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Post by simonb on Jun 8, 2021 20:43:31 GMT
Having had a close look I don’t think this proposal would change the colour of any of the current constituencies on 2019 figures. That said Broxtowe would become ultra marginal and likely to flip on any sort of swing to Labour. Gedling becomes slightly more comfortable for the conservatives but not by much and will certainly be in play next time. The additions to Nottingham North may make it closer but would still be notionally Labour
In Northamptonshire the two seat in Northampton will become more Conservative however Corby will become a better prospect for Labour. The additional Rutland and Stamford seat will be safely Conservative
The Leicestershire changes shouldn’t change any of the seats and Derbyshire changes by so little there is no change their either.
Overall I don’t think this is a bad attempt. I don’t like the movement of the Broxtowe wards into the city but there doesn’t seem a neat alternative
My biggest objection is the changes to names- Ilkeston and Long Eaton ….yuk
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European Lefty
Labour
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Posts: 5,444
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Post by European Lefty on Jun 8, 2021 21:48:26 GMT
Having had a close look I don’t think this proposal would change the colour of any of the current constituencies on 2019 figures. That said Broxtowe would become ultra marginal and likely to flip on any sort of swing to Labour. Gedling becomes slightly more comfortable for the conservatives but not by much and will certainly be in play next time. The additions to Nottingham North may make it closer but would still be notionally Labour In Northamptonshire the two seat in Northampton will become more Conservative however Corby will become a better prospect for Labour. The additional Rutland and Stamford seat will be safely Conservative The Leicestershire changes shouldn’t change any of the seats and Derbyshire changes by so little there is no change their either. Overall I don’t think this is a bad attempt. I don’t like the movement of the Broxtowe wards into the city but there doesn’t seem a neat alternative My biggest objection is the changes to names- Ilkeston and Long Eaton ….yuk Posting across from the almanac entry on Northampton North Next time the Labour Party win a majority, this seat is almost certain to be part of it. Boundary changes, however, will be crucial. Both Northampton seats are undersized, and the borough is entitled to exactly two. If the seat expands west to take in the northern suburbs of King’s Heath and Duston, the political implications will be fairly neutral. If it expands southwards to take in areas around the town centre, it will help Labour massively in this seat while knocking them out of contention in Northampton South. If the seats are changed to an east-west divide, both would probably become right-leaning marginals. The first scenario is sort of what happened; however Northampton North has also gained Billing and Riverside Park which look like ok areas for Labour. South has definitely become more Tory but I think North has been fairly neutral with perhaps a slight swing in Labour's favour. I also wonder if Loughborough might have lost enough territory to flip?
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Post by pepperminttea on Jun 8, 2021 22:47:03 GMT
Having had a close look I don’t think this proposal would change the colour of any of the current constituencies on 2019 figures. That said Broxtowe would become ultra marginal and likely to flip on any sort of swing to Labour. Gedling becomes slightly more comfortable for the conservatives but not by much and will certainly be in play next time. The additions to Nottingham North may make it closer but would still be notionally Labour In Northamptonshire the two seat in Northampton will become more Conservative however Corby will become a better prospect for Labour. The additional Rutland and Stamford seat will be safely Conservative The Leicestershire changes shouldn’t change any of the seats and Derbyshire changes by so little there is no change their either. Overall I don’t think this is a bad attempt. I don’t like the movement of the Broxtowe wards into the city but there doesn’t seem a neat alternative My biggest objection is the changes to names- Ilkeston and Long Eaton ….yuk Posting across from the almanac entry on Northampton North Next time the Labour Party win a majority, this seat is almost certain to be part of it. Boundary changes, however, will be crucial. Both Northampton seats are undersized, and the borough is entitled to exactly two. If the seat expands west to take in the northern suburbs of King’s Heath and Duston, the political implications will be fairly neutral. If it expands southwards to take in areas around the town centre, it will help Labour massively in this seat while knocking them out of contention in Northampton South. If the seats are changed to an east-west divide, both would probably become right-leaning marginals. The first scenario is sort of what happened; however Northampton North has also gained Billing and Riverside Park which look like ok areas for Labour. South has definitely become more Tory but I think North has been fairly neutral with perhaps a slight swing in Labour's favour. I also wonder if Loughborough might have lost enough territory to flip?No, it's only lost two rural-ish wards (Sileby, The Wolds) which have a combined electorate of less than 10,000, but on the other hand it has also gained Tory voting Mountsorrel. This will make the Loughborough constituency a bit more Labour, but barely so. It really hasn't changed all that much.
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Post by simonb on Jun 8, 2021 22:49:52 GMT
Having had a close look I don’t think this proposal would change the colour of any of the current constituencies on 2019 figures. That said Broxtowe would become ultra marginal and likely to flip on any sort of swing to Labour. Gedling becomes slightly more comfortable for the conservatives but not by much and will certainly be in play next time. The additions to Nottingham North may make it closer but would still be notionally Labour In Northamptonshire the two seat in Northampton will become more Conservative however Corby will become a better prospect for Labour. The additional Rutland and Stamford seat will be safely Conservative The Leicestershire changes shouldn’t change any of the seats and Derbyshire changes by so little there is no change their either. Overall I don’t think this is a bad attempt. I don’t like the movement of the Broxtowe wards into the city but there doesn’t seem a neat alternative My biggest objection is the changes to names- Ilkeston and Long Eaton ….yuk Posting across from the almanac entry on Northampton North Next time the Labour Party win a majority, this seat is almost certain to be part of it. Boundary changes, however, will be crucial. Both Northampton seats are undersized, and the borough is entitled to exactly two. If the seat expands west to take in the northern suburbs of King’s Heath and Duston, the political implications will be fairly neutral. If it expands southwards to take in areas around the town centre, it will help Labour massively in this seat while knocking them out of contention in Northampton South. If the seats are changed to an east-west divide, both would probably become right-leaning marginals. The first scenario is sort of what happened; however Northampton North has also gained Billing and Riverside Park which look like ok areas for Labour. South has definitely become more Tory but I think North has been fairly neutral with perhaps a slight swing in Labour's favour. I also wonder if Loughborough might have lost enough territory to flip? The proposed Loughborough seat loses some conservative areas but adds back in Mountsorrel from Charnwood the net effect of which is a reduction in the conservative majority of approx 1k but not enough to flip it on 2019 numbers. it does undoubtedly make it a better prospect for Labour though particularly if the next election is better aligned to the university term
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 9, 2021 6:54:49 GMT
Having had a close look I don’t think this proposal would change the colour of any of the current constituencies on 2019 figures. That said Broxtowe would become ultra marginal and likely to flip on any sort of swing to Labour. Gedling becomes slightly more comfortable for the conservatives but not by much and will certainly be in play next time. The additions to Nottingham North may make it closer but would still be notionally Labour In Northamptonshire the two seat in Northampton will become more Conservative however Corby will become a better prospect for Labour. The additional Rutland and Stamford seat will be safely Conservative The Leicestershire changes shouldn’t change any of the seats and Derbyshire changes by so little there is no change their either. Overall I don’t think this is a bad attempt. I don’t like the movement of the Broxtowe wards into the city but there doesn’t seem a neat alternative My biggest objection is the changes to names- Ilkeston and Long Eaton ….yuk Posting across from the almanac entry on Northampton North Next time the Labour Party win a majority, this seat is almost certain to be part of it. Boundary changes, however, will be crucial. Both Northampton seats are undersized, and the borough is entitled to exactly two. If the seat expands west to take in the northern suburbs of King’s Heath and Duston, the political implications will be fairly neutral. If it expands southwards to take in areas around the town centre, it will help Labour massively in this seat while knocking them out of contention in Northampton South. If the seats are changed to an east-west divide, both would probably become right-leaning marginals. The first scenario is sort of what happened; however Northampton North has also gained Billing and Riverside Park which look like ok areas for Labour. South has definitely become more Tory but I think North has been fairly neutral with perhaps a slight swing in Labour's favour. I also wonder if Loughborough might have lost enough territory to flip? Billing is OK for Labour, but I believe Riverside Park is one of the Torier parts of Northampton proper. Losing Abington also shifts the constituency to the right.
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Post by dizz on Jun 9, 2021 18:21:50 GMT
Having had a close look I don’t think this proposal would change the colour of any of the current constituencies on 2019 figures. That said Broxtowe would become ultra marginal and likely to flip on any sort of swing to Labour. Gedling becomes slightly more comfortable for the conservatives but not by much and will certainly be in play next time. The additions to Nottingham North may make it closer but would still be notionally Labour In Northamptonshire the two seat in Northampton will become more Conservative however Corby will become a better prospect for Labour. The additional Rutland and Stamford seat will be safely Conservative The Leicestershire changes shouldn’t change any of the seats and Derbyshire changes by so little there is no change their either. Overall I don’t think this is a bad attempt. I don’t like the movement of the Broxtowe wards into the city but there doesn’t seem a neat alternative My biggest objection is the changes to name s- Ilkeston and Long Eaton ….yukWhat about West Nottinghamshire for that one.
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Post by simonb on Jun 9, 2021 21:41:16 GMT
Having had a close look I don’t think this proposal would change the colour of any of the current constituencies on 2019 figures. That said Broxtowe would become ultra marginal and likely to flip on any sort of swing to Labour. Gedling becomes slightly more comfortable for the conservatives but not by much and will certainly be in play next time. The additions to Nottingham North may make it closer but would still be notionally Labour In Northamptonshire the two seat in Northampton will become more Conservative however Corby will become a better prospect for Labour. The additional Rutland and Stamford seat will be safely Conservative The Leicestershire changes shouldn’t change any of the seats and Derbyshire changes by so little there is no change their either. Overall I don’t think this is a bad attempt. I don’t like the movement of the Broxtowe wards into the city but there doesn’t seem a neat alternative My biggest objection is the changes to name s- Ilkeston and Long Eaton ….yukWhat about West Nottinghamshire for that one. Lol….May be a tad controversial….both towns do form part of the Nottingham conurbation rather than Derby
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