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Post by La Fontaine on Jan 8, 2021 13:19:09 GMT
Reasonably pleased with this  ere are Thornaby is split, but I cannot see how this can be avoided without the knock-on of attaching Sedgefield to Stockton. Seaton Valley also split, but this doesn't matter perhaps. |
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Post by mattb on Jan 8, 2021 13:49:59 GMT
Thornaby is split, but I cannot see how this can be avoided without the knock-on of attaching Sedgefield to Stockton. Seaton Valley also split, but this doesn't matter perhaps. I think Thornaby is unavoidable unless you're prepared to cross the Northumberland/Durham border (which I wanted to avoid). I don't see Seaton Valley as a big issue personally - there are obviously links but if Blyth and Cramlington are going to be in different seats, this seems the right place to draw the line. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 8, 2021 13:54:44 GMT
There is a way to get six seats out of Darlington, Stockton, Middlesbrough and Cleveland without splitting Thornaby, but it involves crossing the Middlesbrough/Stockton border twice and some horrific tendrils in Middlesbrough. Though personally I'd suggest putting Sedgefield in with Teesside is better than splitting Thornaby.
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Post by mattb on Jan 8, 2021 14:10:12 GMT
There is a way to get six seats out of Darlington, Stockton, Middlesbrough and Cleveland without splitting Thornaby, but it involves crossing the Middlesbrough/Stockton border twice and some horrific tendrils in Middlesbrough. Though personally I'd suggest putting Sedgefield in with Teesside is better than splitting Thornaby. But can you put Sedgefield in with Teeside and at the same time stick with 8 seats in Northumberland/Newcastle/N.Tyneside? I couldn't find a way to do so, I think there are just not enough electors to work with in Durham/Sunderland/S.Tyneside - but happy to be corrected ! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 8, 2021 14:14:25 GMT
You can - my plan in this thread does so. I'll stick up a map later this afternoon.
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Post by mattb on Jan 8, 2021 14:18:22 GMT
You can - my plan in this thread does so. I'll stick up a map later this afternoon. OK sounds good (sorry I'm hopeless unless I can see it) |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 8, 2021 15:39:43 GMT
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Post by mattb on Jan 8, 2021 16:14:47 GMT
Not a perfect map by any means, but it's doable and not that appalling. Thanks - certainly not appalling! I prefer my Northumberland (saves one crossing of LA boundaries apart from anything else - and retains Tynemouth more-or-less intact). In Durham definitely better in my view to keep Teesdale and Weardale in separate seats, personally I don't like the Durham seat extending all the way to Trimdon, and my S.Tynesdie is perhaps neater - not much in it but not sure it's worth it just to keep Thornaby whole  |
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Post by La Fontaine on Jan 8, 2021 16:40:46 GMT
I was Ian Wrigglesworth's sub-agent for Thornaby in 1979, so I want it kept together!!!
Good fun, incidentally. Rival leaflets produced by candidate and agent (Charlie Shopland).
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 8, 2021 16:52:10 GMT
I was Ian Wrigglesworth's sub-agent for Thornaby in 1979, so I want it kept together!!! Good fun, incidentally. Rival leaflets produced by candidate and agent (Charlie Shopland). Reporting on a Crewe by-election the candidate once wrote: "It is recommended that every campaign should have a plan. We had three!" |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 8, 2021 17:14:21 GMT
Not a perfect map by any means, but it's doable and not that appalling. Thanks - certainly not appalling! I prefer my Northumberland (saves one crossing of LA boundaries apart from anything else - and retains Tynemouth more-or-less intact). In Durham definitely better in my view to keep Teesdale and Weardale in separate seats, personally I don't like the Durham seat extending all the way to Trimdon, and my S.Tynesdie is perhaps neater - not much in it but not sure it's worth it just to keep Thornaby whole I agree your South Tyneside is better, but the same arrangement works with my map. I also agree that Durham extending to Trimdon is bad, but unfortunately with Sherburn it's slightly too small and I couldn't find an alternative arrangement that works - which is not to say it doesn't exist. I'm personally OK with Teesdale and Weardale being in the same seat, but I may have a play and see if I can find an alternative arrangement that separates them and perhaps removes the need to grab Trimdon in the process. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 8, 2021 19:44:29 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 8, 2021 19:45:19 GMT
The associated explanation of the (extensive) changes and their partisan imapct.
Berwick and Morpeth – Successor to the current Berwick upon Tweed constituency with Morpeth added from Wansbeck and Rothbury removed. Little partisan impact with constituency remaining very safe Conservative in both 2017 and 2019.
Ashington and Blyth – Successor to the current Wansbeck constituency with Morpeth removed and Blyth added from Blyth Valley. Changes would have made it very safe Labour in 2017 and still safe Labour in 2019.
Cramlington and Longbenton – New constituency taking in Cramlington and Seaton Valley from Blyth Valley along with the Longbenton/Killingworth area from North Tyneside. Safe Labour in 2017 but likely ultra-marginal Conservative in 2019.
Whitley Bay – The current Tynemouth constituency minus another part of North Shields. Little partisan impact with constituency remaining safe Labour in 2017 and just about safe Labour in 2019.
Newcastle Wallsend – New constituency taking in Byker and Walker from Newcastle East, Wallsend from North Tyneside, along with part of North Shields from Tynemouth. Very, very safe Labour in 2017 and very safe Labour in 2019.
Newcastle Gosforth – New constituency taking in Heaton and Jesmond from Newcastle East along with Gosforth from Newcastle Central and Newcastle North. Very safe Labour in 2017 and still safe in 2019.
Newcastle West End – Just about a successor to Newcastle Central. The constituency takes in the city centre, Benwell and Fenham from Newcastle Central along with Lemington and Westerhope from Newcastle North - Very safe Labour in 2017 and not much less very safe in 2019.
Hexham and Ponteland – Successor to the current Hexham constituency with Prudhoe removed, Rothbury added from Berwick upon Tweed and the western fringes of Newcastle added from Newcastle North. Little partisan impact with the seat remaining safely Conservative in both 2017 and a bit more in 2019.
Blaydon – The current constituency but with Birtley removed, Prudhoe added from Hexham and the rest of Dunston added from Gateshead. Slightly more marginal but still very safe Labour in 2017 and basically safe in 2019.
Gateshead - The current constituency but with Dunston removed and Birtley added from Blaydon. A bit more marginal but still very, very safe Labour in 2017 and still safe Labour in 2019.
Washington and Hebburn – Just about a successor to Washington and Sunderland West. Takes in Washington from the former along with Hebburn and the eastern fringes of Gateshead from Jarrow. Constituency becomes a bit safer for Labour with it being very safe in 2017 and just about safe in 2019.
South Shields – The current constituency with Whitburn removed and most of Jarrow added from Jarrow. Constituency becomes a bit safer for Labour with it being very safe in 2017 and still safe in 2019.
Sunderland North – New constituency taking in most of northern Sunderland and part of central Sunderland from Sunderland Central, the rest of northern Sunderland from Washington and Sunderland West, the Boldons from Jarrow, and Whitburn from South Shields. Very safely Labour in 2017 and just about safe in 2019.
Sunderland South – New constituency taking in part of central Sunderland from Sunderland Central, the south west from Houghton and Sunderland South, and a bit of western Sunderland from Washington and Sunderland West. Safe Labour in 2017 but ultra-marginal Labour in 2019.
Chester le Street and Houghton – New constituency taking in Chester le Street from North Durham and Houghton from Houghton and Sunderland South. Safe Labour in 2017 but reasonably marginal in 2019.
Consett and Stanley – New constituency taking in Consett from North West Durham and Stanley from North Durham. Very safe Labour constituency in 2017 but somewhat marginal in 2019.
City of Durham – The current constituency but with the Coxhoe area removed and the rural area around Esh and Lanchester added from North West Durham. Safe Labour in 2017 but somewhat marginal in 2019.
Teesdale and Weardale – The successor to Bishop Auckland constituency. Spennymoor is removed while Weardale is added from North West Durham. Little partisan impact with the constituency being ultra-marginally Labour in 2017 and safely Conservative in 2019.
Aycliffe and Spennymoor – Just about a successor to Sedgefield. The constituency takes in Ferryhill and Newton Aycliffe from Sedgefield, Spennymoor from Bishop Auckland, and Coxhoe from City of Durham. The changes would make the constituency quite a bit more Labour so that it would have been safely Labour in 2017 and only marginally Conservative in 2019.
Easington – The current constituency with Trimdon and Wingate added from Sedgefield. The changes make the constituency slightly more Labour so the seat would remain very safely Labour in 2017 and still safely Labour in 2019, albeit with a large Brexit Party vote.
Hartlepool – The current constituency is unchanged. Safely Labour in 2017 and somewhat marginal in 2019 with both the Conservatives and the Brexit Party getting substantial votes.
Darlington – The current constituency with the addition of Heighington from Sedgefield. The changes make it a bit more Conservative so a Labour marginal in 2017 and reasonably marginal for the Conservatives in 2019.
Stockton North – The current constituency with the removal of Stillington and the addition of Oxbridge from Stockton South. The changes make it a bit more Labour and therefore safely Labour in 2017 and marginal in 2019.
Stockton South – The current constituency with the removal of Oxbridge and most of Thornaby and the addition of Stillington from Stockton North along with Hurworth and Middleton St George from Sedgefield. The changes would make the constituency much more Conservative so that it would have been a Conservative marginal in 2017 and safely Conservative in 2019.
Middlesbrough Central – Successor to Middlesbrough which loses Beechwood but gains Park End from Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland along with most of Thornaby from Stockton South. Becomes a bit better for Labour so would have been very safely Labour in 2017 and still safely Labour in 2019.
Middlesbrough South and Guisborough – Successor to Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Loses Park End and Saltburn while gaining Beechwood from Middlesbrough. Changes mean it would have been even more ultra-marginally Conservative in 2017 but still safely Conservative in 2019.
Redcar – The current constituency with the addition of Saltburn from Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. Changes make it slightly more Conservative so still safely labour in 2017 and somewhat marginally Conservative in 2019.
Summary
2017 – 21 safe Labour (-2), 2 marginal Labour (-1), 2 marginal Conservative (+1), and 2 safe Conservatives (nc).
2019 – 12 safe Labour (nc), 6 marginal Labour (-1), 4 marginal Conservatives (-2), and 5 safe Conservatives (+1).
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 8, 2021 20:20:23 GMT
I think there’s a reasonable case to be made for rejigging my Newcastle/North Tyneside map along the lines of East Anglian Lefty. In my view it’s really a question of whether a really bad split of North Shields (which is already partially accepted in the current boundaries) is better or worse than a few dodgy splits in Newcastle (choices include splitting Gosforth, Benwell, and/or the city centre). It’s not a clear cut decision either way. |
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Post by islington on Jan 9, 2021 20:44:36 GMT
Here's an offering for the northern part of the region. (For the southern part I can't improve on EAL's scheme above.)  dice multiplayerBerwick - 76273 Blyth - 72527 Hexham - 72850 Newcastle upon Tyne West - 76950 Newcastle upon Tyne Central - 77007 Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend - 75230 Cramlington and Longbenton - 70332 Tynemouth - 75717 Gateshead West - 74066 Gateshead East - 70553 South Shields and Jarrow - 69911 Sunderland North and Boldon - 70381
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Post by greenhert on Jan 9, 2021 20:51:40 GMT
It makes a mess of Newcastle-upon-Tyne but there is nothing better overall. My plan was to combine most of Berwick-upon-Tweed with Hexham in a "West Northumberland" seat, to create neater seats within Newcastle-upon-Tyne and North Tyneside, but poor connections within such a seat will preclude it being created in practice, so Berwick & Morpeth it will have to be.
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Post by mattb on Jan 9, 2021 21:07:35 GMT
Here's an offering for the northern part of the region. (For the southern part I can't improve on EAL's scheme above.) dice multiplayerBerwick - 76273 Blyth - 72527 Hexham - 72850 Newcastle upon Tyne West - 76950 Newcastle upon Tyne Central - 77007 Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend - 75230 Cramlington and Longbenton - 70332 Tynemouth - 75717 Gateshead West - 74066 Gateshead East - 70553 South Shields and Jarrow - 69911 Sunderland North and Boldon - 70381
Looks fairly familiar Splitting Holywell from Seaton Delaval is not ideal but a relatively minor quibble. I prefer my arrangement in Newcastle but it's probably personal preference as much as anything. |
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Post by islington on Jan 9, 2021 21:15:45 GMT
Sorry Matt - I hadn't seen your plan.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jan 9, 2021 21:17:38 GMT
islington I like some of what you’ve done but I can’t help but nitpick a few issues. There’s quite a few small communities split eg; Seaton Delaval, Fenham and Gosforth, Gateshead West is Blaydon, half of South Shields is in Sunderland North so needs a rename, and the inclusion of Bedlington in Hexham has triggered me (its very isolated from the rest of the constituency and very much looks to other Northumberland coastal communities/Newcastle itself.
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Post by islington on Jan 10, 2021 10:54:01 GMT
islington I like some of what you’ve done but I can’t help but nitpick a few issues. There’s quite a few small communities split eg; Seaton Delaval, Fenham and Gosforth, Gateshead West is Blaydon, half of South Shields is in Sunderland North so needs a rename, and the inclusion of Bedlington in Hexham has triggered me (its very isolated from the rest of the constituency and very much looks to other Northumberland coastal communities/Newcastle itself. Well, Jamie, I try not to get too much hung up on the question of names so if you prefer 'Blaydon' and 'Gateshead', that's fine.
Regarding Newcastle, I kept together all the wards with 'Gosforth' in the name - which is more than the current map achieves - but I freely admit that this is not a city I know well so I quite accept that better arrangements may be possible. I'd point out, though, that, unlike some plans upthread, I have only one seat crossing the city boundary.
Regarding Bedlington: the current Hexham seat is well short on numbers so it needs to expand somewhere. Assuming you respect the existing boundaries with Berwick to the north and Durham UA to the south, your choices are to break the boundary with either Newcastle or Gateshead, to add half of Cramlington, or to add Bedlington. I accept the last of these may not be a great fit but the alternatives aren't good either.
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