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Post by andrew111 on Jun 8, 2021 14:06:37 GMT
I doubt if any deal with the Lib Dems in Otley would save Leeds NW for Labour. Rather I would think the Lib Dems would target it for second place. The new Pudsey should be a good bet for Labour though, I would think I agree that the new Pudsey seat is now much more likely to go for Labour and gun to the head I think Labour would indeed win. But after a full campaign and being fully worked by the two main parties things can change. Labour have recently been making gains in Calverley and Farsley even as Pudsey slips further from their grasp. As an aside, the good people of Bramley and Stanningley will be in for a bit of a shock since there hasn't been a competitive Westminster election there since the 80s. Lib Dems held Bramley locally for a while though, so they will have seen more campaign that some wards (Seacroft for example?). There is only one polling district where the Tories would win, I would think. Farsley is getting quite gentrified. Quite a few Leeds Uni colleagues live there, and I doubt they vote Tory. I think once Brexit has died down Labour will get back in contention in Pudsey but it will need a good local candidate. Greens will have their eye on that new Headingley constituency though. Lots of students, probably more than Leeds Central
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Post by kvasir on Jun 8, 2021 14:15:55 GMT
I agree that the new Pudsey seat is now much more likely to go for Labour and gun to the head I think Labour would indeed win. But after a full campaign and being fully worked by the two main parties things can change. Labour have recently been making gains in Calverley and Farsley even as Pudsey slips further from their grasp. As an aside, the good people of Bramley and Stanningley will be in for a bit of a shock since there hasn't been a competitive Westminster election there since the 80s. Lib Dems held Bramley locally for a while though, so they will have seen more campaign that some wards (Seacroft for example?). There is only one polling district where the Tories would win, I would think. Farsley is getting quite gentrified. Quite a few Leeds Uni colleagues live there, and I doubt they vote Tory. I think once Brexit has died down Labour will get back in contention in Pudsey but it will need a good local candidate. Calverley and Farsley have the advantage of being the home ward of Andrew Carter and his wife who are very popular institutions and are great at getting the vote out for the Tories. At some point Andrew Carter will not be the leader of the Leeds Tories and I can't help but wonder what happens then. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps something. In Bramley there will be some who remember the Liberal Democrats but plenty will not. It is the ward of my sister and her partner so she will be interested in hearing about the move.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 8, 2021 14:17:39 GMT
In what sense? Clearly Imran and Mark will be at war for it. It will no doubt attract attention from elsewhere too. its always going to have a Tory MP short of a Blair landslide or something.....and even then. True, it would be the safest Tory seat in West Yorks, I would think? Dewsbury and Huddersfield both safe Labour and Batley and Hipperholme marginal. Colne Valley more Tory. I guess Kirklees as a whole must be under quota to be grabbing bits of Calder sale and Wakefield but Batley and Hipperholme will not be popular.. The new Morley configuration might not be far off, you’d expect on current polling, Tories to win that by 10k. Middleton hasn’t been canvassed by a Tory. Ever. I don’t think. And certainly not one who would appeal to the not inconsiderable anti Labour vote there these days. Labour finished 3rd in Morley N & Morley S, and were finally turned over in Ardsley & Robin Hood.
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 8, 2021 14:19:54 GMT
Lib Dems held Bramley locally for a while though, so they will have seen more campaign that some wards (Seacroft for example?). There is only one polling district where the Tories would win, I would think. Farsley is getting quite gentrified. Quite a few Leeds Uni colleagues live there, and I doubt they vote Tory. I think once Brexit has died down Labour will get back in contention in Pudsey but it will need a good local candidate. Calverley and Farsley have the advantage of being the home ward of Andrew Carter and his wife who are very popular institutions and are great at getting the vote out for the Tories. At some point Andrew Carter will not be the leader of the Leeds Tories and I can't help but wonder what happens then. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps something. In Bramley there will be some who remember the Liberal Democrats but plenty will not. It is the ward of my sister and her partner so she will be interested in hearing about the move. Yes, Andrew Carter has been there forever. Farnley and Wortley must be pretty Labour in a General Election, so that would be two good wards for you
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 8, 2021 14:26:43 GMT
True, it would be the safest Tory seat in West Yorks, I would think? Dewsbury and Huddersfield both safe Labour and Batley and Hipperholme marginal. Colne Valley more Tory. I guess Kirklees as a whole must be under quota to be grabbing bits of Calder sale and Wakefield but Batley and Hipperholme will not be popular.. The new Morley configuration might not be far off, you’d expect on current polling, Tories to win that by 10k. Middleton hasn’t been canvassed by a Tory. Ever. I don’t think. And certainly not one who would appeal to the not inconsiderable anti Labour vote there these days. Labour finished 3rd in Morley N & Morley S, and were finally turned over in Ardsley & Robin Hood. I think we have to assume current polling will last forever. I also think the new breed of Tory voter in places like Morley will not turn out to be as loyal as the rich folk in places like Adel.
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Jun 8, 2021 16:00:05 GMT
In what sense? Clearly Imran and Mark will be at war for it. It will no doubt attract attention from elsewhere too. its always going to have a Tory MP short of a Blair landslide or something.....and even then. True, it would be the safest Tory seat in West Yorks, I would think? Dewsbury and Huddersfield both safe Labour and Batley and Hipperholme marginal. Colne Valley more Tory. I guess Kirklees as a whole must be under quota to be grabbing bits of Calder sale and Wakefield but Batley and Hipperholme will not be popular.. Batley & Hipperholme is an amusing absurdity for any of us who actually know where these places are
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 8, 2021 17:45:54 GMT
How does this boundary review look for Yvette Cooper's chances of avoiding the scenario which befell her husband?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 8, 2021 17:49:26 GMT
How does this boundary review look for Yvette Cooper's chances of avoiding the scenario which befell her husband? I don’t think it effects her chances that much. Her seat is in tact, but loses 1 ward- Normanton. Im not sure that will have much effect either way.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 9, 2021 9:22:33 GMT
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 9, 2021 12:20:55 GMT
Honestly I think the only real question in Bradford is whether Great Horton gets swapped for Thornton & Allerton or Clayton & Fairweather Green. I agree a North constituency would be a much more elegant solution, but I'm pretty sure least change is going to win out. My first thought on looking at the map was ‘what is the alternative’ as the little blob of Fairweather Green dangling of the side of the new South is horrible - I guess it isnt the BCEs fault that the ward has one bit not actually connected by road to the rest though. There are alternatives but (except for the one which includes Thornton & Allerton in "South" rather than Clayton & Fairweather Green, which I'm not convinced is any better) they involve either splitting a ward or moving a lot more wards around than the BCE's proposals. The problem is that the current South has a group of smallish wards in the middle of it, and the wards on its "wings" (Queensbury and Tong) are among its larger wards, so swapping them out is generally unhelpful. One option is to reconfigure with SW, SE and N seats.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 9, 2021 16:37:13 GMT
My first thought on looking at the map was ‘what is the alternative’ as the little blob of Fairweather Green dangling of the side of the new South is horrible - I guess it isnt the BCEs fault that the ward has one bit not actually connected by road to the rest though. There are alternatives but (except for the one which includes Thornton & Allerton in "South" rather than Clayton & Fairweather Green, which I'm not convinced is any better) they involve either splitting a ward or moving a lot more wards around than the BCE's proposals. The problem is that the current South has a group of smallish wards in the middle of it, and the wards on its "wings" (Queensbury and Tong) are among its larger wards, so swapping them out is generally unhelpful. One option is to reconfigure with SW, SE and N seats. I would suspect suggesting that would be a waste of time, given that the commissions recommendations are very much minimal change. As a resident of Thornton I could live with moving to South though and I think that would be at least aesthetically better
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 9, 2021 20:31:23 GMT
Batley and Hipperholme is going down terribly.
The best option if you want to take a ward out of Calderdale is Elland, which has ties to Huddersfield over the hill and is a pretty coherent contained ward. This would require an additional ward split in Lindley, Crossland Moor, or Almondbury, however. As well as a split in Heckmondwike to bring Batley back in quota. Not sure if they’ll go for it because of that.. while ward splits are being used they are still clearly seen as a luxury by the commission only used to prevent absurdity.
I predict the seat will survive.
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 9, 2021 20:48:37 GMT
Batley and Hipperholme is going down terribly. The best option if you want to take a ward out of Calderdale is Elland, which has ties to Huddersfield over the hill and is a pretty coherent contained ward. This would require an additional ward split in Lindley, Crossland Moor, or Almondbury, however. As well as a split in Heckmondwike to bring Batley back in quota. Not sure if they’ll go for it because of that.. while ward splits are being used they are still clearly seen as a luxury by the commission only used to prevent absurdity. I predict the seat will survive. Just to stress my ideal plan would be to split a ward in Calderdale, then two in Kirklees, and a further two in Leeds (I suggested Kippax and Little London). But not going to happen! m.imgur.com/a/tuK1sMU
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 9, 2021 21:22:24 GMT
Batley and Hipperholme is going down terribly. The best option if you want to take a ward out of Calderdale is Elland, which has ties to Huddersfield over the hill and is a pretty coherent contained ward. This would require an additional ward split in Lindley, Crossland Moor, or Almondbury, however. As well as a split in Heckmondwike to bring Batley back in quota. Not sure if they’ll go for it because of that.. while ward splits are being used they are still clearly seen as a luxury by the commission only used to prevent absurdity. I predict the seat will survive. I don't know... In West Yorkshire they do indeed seem to have regarded ward splits as a luxury, but in some other parts of the country the attitude is different. Even the Sheffield split (which of course I agree with) isn't quite in that category; the consequences of not doing it would IMO be no worse than Batley & Hipperholme. In Northants, where I think there were viable plans with no splits at all, they've split several wards to stay close to the current map; they've even split a ward in Cumbria with under 5000 electors. I think you should submit your plan.
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 9, 2021 23:16:17 GMT
Weird things happening with the BC interactive map. I click on the existing Colne Valley constituency and get 79979 electors Then I click on the new Colne Valley and get 71518, a decrease of 8461 The main change is the transfer of Crosland Moor and Netherton to Huddersfield. That is 13,147 voters. There is one other change where all of Thurstonland goes into Kirkburton ward. But that cannot be more than 200 electors, and it is a further subtraction I happen to have this year's electorates, and the error seems to be in the current Colne Valley, because I add up the figures from March and get 85037.
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 9, 2021 23:26:40 GMT
Just did Huddersfield and the number in the existing constituency is 4000 too low, so looks like the constituencies are using some ancient data, but the wards are up to date. Probably something well known here..
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 10, 2021 2:01:23 GMT
Weird things happening with the BC interactive map. I can't get it to scroll. I have to zoom a long way out then aim and soom back in again.
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ilerda
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Post by ilerda on Jun 10, 2021 10:28:27 GMT
I've just realised that the initial proposals put South Hunsley in Hull West. This seems odd given that it fits more naturally in a more rural seat that includes Howden and Brough etc.
Surely it would make more sense to put Willerby and Kirk Ella into Hull West and Hessle (from proposed Goole and Haltemprice), which would unite the three southern Haltemprice wards in one constituency.
South Hunsley can then move into the proposed Goole and Haltemprice (which I would rename Goole and Howdenshire), which is a more natural fit. Having just the two Cottingham wards in that seat would be better than including Willerby and Kirk Ella as well.
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 22, 2021 7:18:40 GMT
In this region the BCE did consider a plan with more ward splits, and in particular a two seat Calderdale with a ward split. But the split ward wasn't Hipperholme & Lightcliffe or Luddendenfoot, it was Ryburn. So were they thinking of transferring the Sowerby part of that ward to Halifax, or something more radical?
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 22, 2021 7:23:07 GMT
In this region the BCE did consider a plan with more ward splits, and in particular a two seat Calderdale with a ward split. But the split ward wasn't Hipperholme & Lightcliffe or Luddendenfoot, it was Ryburn. So were they thinking of transferring the Sowerby part of that ward to Halifax, or something more radical? THey mention keeping Halifax intact so likely transferring Triangle/rest of Norland plus Sowerby into Halifax and Ripponden parish area remaining in Calder Valley. A neat proposal.
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