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Post by kevinlarkin on Jan 25, 2021 20:53:15 GMT
This is all that I am aware of. New unitaries: Bucks, N Northants, W Northants. The new wards are the county electoral divisions in all three cases. Unitaries with 2021 boundary changes: Cornwall, Isle of Wight, Wiltshire. There is a minor change in Northumberlnd with parishes exchanged between two electoral divisions. London Boroughs: Barnet,Brent,Camden,Ealing,Hammersmith and Fulham,Haringey,Harrow,Hillingdon,Hounslow,Islington,Merton,Richmond upon Thames,Sutton,Westminster (we already have the prospective ward electorates for Enfield and Lewisham). There are ongoing local ward boundary reviews in Scotland and Wales but as far as I can tell no Statutory Instruments involving ward boundary changes have been made since 2017 in Scotland and 2016 in Wales. For Northern Ireland I don't know if there is any provision for interim ward boundary reviews. The previous set were unchanged between 1995 and 2012. For London ward boundaries will also be revised for the following but the Orders won’t have been passed in time to use them for the draft recommendations is that right? Kingston Wandsworth Lambeth Bromley Greenwich Waltham Forest Newham Barking and Dagenham Havering It is quite clear from the legislation that only boundary changes that have completed the statutory instrument procedure by 1st December 2020 will be considered by the boundary commissions in this review. It is unfortunate for five of the nine listed above that have now reached final recommendations stage, but there has to be a cut off somewhere. It is particularly unfortunate for Wandsworth which is entitled to 3.02 quotas on the March 2020 electorates, but there is no reasonable way of dividing the current 20 wards into 3 constituencies (there are a dozen possible three seat configurations within quota but they all involve a 'Wandsworth Riverside' that stretches from Nine Elms to the confluence of Beverley Brook with the Thames). On the proposed boundaries Wandsworth could probably form three in quota constituencies with a best-fit to current parliamentary boundaries, and the transfer of the new 2-member Wandle ward to Putney. I suppose that if the BCE were to consider ward splits to create three seats entirely within the borough they might entertain arguments that such splits should follow the proposed ward boundaries. More likely, given the BCE's stated policies, is that they pair Wandsworth with Lambeth, Merton or Richmond and create unnecessary disruption.
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Eastwood
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Politically restricted post
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Post by Eastwood on Jan 25, 2021 21:19:51 GMT
I'm getting confused about the exact areas in which we are awaiting mapping and numbers for new wards. I know that several London boroughs fall in this category (for which reason I've held off from London altogether); also the Unitaries in Nhants, Bucks and Wilts. But I've an uneasy feeling there are more. Is there a definitive list somewhere?
Edited to add: And Scotland of course. But the NI map and numbers are now final - is that right? And I've completely lost track of Wales.
This is all that I am aware of. New unitaries: Bucks, N Northants, W Northants. The new wards are the county electoral divisions in all three cases. Unitaries with 2021 boundary changes: Cornwall, Isle of Wight, Wiltshire. There is a minor change in Northumberlnd with parishes exchanged between two electoral divisions. London Boroughs: Barnet,Brent,Camden,Ealing,Hammersmith and Fulham,Haringey,Harrow,Hillingdon,Hounslow,Islington,Merton,Richmond upon Thames,Sutton,Westminster (we already have the prospective ward electorates for Enfield and Lewisham). There are ongoing local ward boundary reviews in Scotland and Wales but as far as I can tell no Statutory Instruments involving ward boundary changes have been made since 2017 in Scotland and 2016 in Wales. For Northern Ireland I don't know if there is any provision for interim ward boundary reviews. The previous set were unchanged between 1995 and 2012. There is one: The Glasgow City Council Area and North Lanarkshire Council Area (Cardowan by Stepps) Boundaries Amendment Order 2018 Came into force on 01/04/2019. Doesn't look to be on Boundary Assistant yet.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jan 25, 2021 21:29:21 GMT
It is particularly unfortunate for Wandsworth which is entitled to 3.02 quotas on the March 2020 electorates, but there is no reasonable way of dividing the current 20 wards into 3 constituencies (there are a dozen possible three seat configurations within quota but they all involve a 'Wandsworth Riverside' that stretches from Nine Elms to the confluence of Beverley Brook with the Thames). On the proposed boundaries Wandsworth could probably form three in quota constituencies with a best-fit to current parliamentary boundaries, and the transfer of the new 2-member Wandle ward to Putney. I suppose that if the BCE were to consider ward splits to create three seats entirely within the borough they might entertain arguments that such splits should follow the proposed ward boundaries. More likely, given the BCE's stated policies, is that they pair Wandsworth with Lambeth, Merton or Richmond and create unnecessary disruption. They actually did that in Sheffield to a limited extent in the second zombie review: the wards used were the ones from 2004 which were replaced in 2016, and when they split Central ward they followed the new boundaries. (The other two Sheffield splits didn't follow the new boundaries, but there weren't any which were useful for the proposed splits.) So I don't see why it shouldn't be suggested this time in Wandsworth.
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Post by kevinlarkin on Jan 27, 2021 11:10:03 GMT
There is one: The Glasgow City Council Area and North Lanarkshire Council Area (Cardowan by Stepps) Boundaries Amendment Order 2018 Came into force on 01/04/2019. Doesn't look to be on Boundary Assistant yet. Thanks, I had missed that one. It will be included in Boundary Assistant once we have the March 2020 electorates for Scotland.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 28, 2021 3:20:49 GMT
Frivolous question: I wonder whether it would be possible to redraw the boundaries in a way that would have delivered a Labour majority in 2019.
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Post by edgbaston on Jan 28, 2021 5:01:42 GMT
Frivolous question: I wonder whether it would be possible to redraw the boundaries in a way that would have delivered a Labour majority in 2019. Not a labour majority but certainly a non-Tory majority. And it wouldn’t look any worse than the first zombie review tbh..
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 2, 2021 1:24:58 GMT
In a few years' time a lot of MPs are going to be complaining about the strange shapes of their new constituencies which will be the direct result of their decision to reduce the tolerance to 5%. It's notable the number of times you have to switch two wards to hit the quota but in doing so you mangle the shape of the seats in question.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2021 6:41:46 GMT
In a few years' time a lot of MPs are going to be complaining about the strange shapes of their new constituencies which will be the direct result of their decision to reduce the tolerance to 5%. It's notable the number of times you have to switch two wards to hit the quota but in doing so you mangle the shape of the seats in question. There will be a lot of this, and related discussion, because MPs (perhaps logically enough) don't sit down for months on end doing the nerdy/geeky/detailed groundwork we do on this forum. There will be a lot of "well why can't the Boundary Commission to XYZ" and I hope the answer is "Because you legislated against it, or legislated in such a way as to make it impossible."
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 2, 2021 8:54:35 GMT
In a few years' time a lot of MPs are going to be complaining about the strange shapes of their new constituencies which will be the direct result of their decision to reduce the tolerance to 5%. It's notable the number of times you have to switch two wards to hit the quota but in doing so you mangle the shape of the seats in question. There will be a lot of this, and related discussion, because MPs (perhaps logically enough) don't sit down for months on end doing the nerdy/geeky/detailed groundwork we do on this forum. There will be a lot of "well why can't the Boundary Commission to XYZ" and I hope the answer is "Because you legislated against it, or legislated in such a way as to make it impossible." Though the problem is that (outside of West Yorkshire) it's possible to draw a decent version of almost every existing seat that is within quota, it's just that doing so makes neighbouring seats worse. So rather than blaming the legislation, a lot of MPs will just blame the BCE for not prioritising their interests over their neighbours'. Also, due to ward sizes most of the problems are in urban areas. Tory MPs in county constituencies, who are the overwhelming majority of people who voted for the bill who are still in parliament, are much less likely to be discomforted by this, especially with 650 seats. They have no strong need to care about the consequences for urban Labour MPs and many will be happy to treat it as the inevitable consequence of previous malapportionment.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 8, 2021 5:47:02 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 8, 2021 8:13:57 GMT
The central argument is sound but there's some odd detail in there Brighton Kemptown won't be shedding any wards to Lewes - if anything the reverse is the case, but even if it were it would not be from the 'solidly Labour' part of the seat. In Sussex overall a new seat in the middle of the county will be safely Conservative but a more reasonable point in this case is that Hastings & Rye will inevitably be rendered more marginal. The Wycombe example is sound (though it may not necessarily work out that way) but otherwise the South East sees the creation of new safe Conservative seats which don't (or at least needn't) cause problems in neighbouring seats (in Kent, Surrey, Berkshire/Hampshire, Oxfordshire, Isle of Wight)
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Feb 9, 2021 16:52:14 GMT
It is quite clear from the legislation that only boundary changes that have completed the statutory instrument procedure by 1st December 2020 will be considered by the boundary commissions in this review. It is unfortunate for five of the nine listed above that have now reached final recommendations stage, but there has to be a cut off somewhere. In 2021, with the facilities we have at our disposal, I disagree that there has to be a cutoff. It's a straightforward matter for the Commissions to work with the most uptodate boundaries.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,726
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Post by Adrian on Feb 10, 2021 23:27:36 GMT
Acting 33% of my age, I'm doing my boundary reviews live on Twitch and then uploading them to YouTube. www.youtube.com/channel/UCfq6VAiX7Fhn0IQLxtPoAjgEdit: I'm not expecting people to watch (!) but it should draw some attention to the fact that the process has started. I'm sure there are some teenage versions of me out there who are potentially as fascinated by this nonsense as I was/am. So far I've looked at Birmingham, Cornwall and Kent. Bucks tomorrow. I'll revisit the counties I've done after I've read the threads on this forum.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 17, 2021 11:26:11 GMT
Trying to find an ONS list of wards with electorates by local authority without them being divided between constituencies...
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 17, 2021 11:38:42 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 17, 2021 11:40:18 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 17, 2021 14:46:06 GMT
Table 4 — the wards are still being divided up between constituencies where that is the case. Maybe Im looking in the wrong place.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 17, 2021 17:01:55 GMT
Table 4 — the wards are still being divided up between constituencies where that is the case. Maybe Im looking in the wrong place. I misread your original post. Table 1 has the figures for whole local authorities. Table 4 as you say is the figures for ward by both Parliamentary electors and local government electors
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Post by kevinlarkin on Feb 17, 2021 17:45:40 GMT
Table 4 — the wards are still being divided up between constituencies where that is the case. Maybe Im looking in the wrong place. You could do that with a pivot table or by using subtotals, although I prefer to save the tables in CSV format, load them into a database and create summaries there. The link below is to a sheet with one row per ward showing the total ward electorate and just the 'best-fit' parliamentary constituency - the one with the largest share of the ward electorate. Includes England, Wales and NI. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WtveuO5Csd8WCgV_mj8uh2RhLELUz5PohsXnsI9meAQ/edit?usp=sharing
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Post by johnloony on Feb 19, 2021 11:08:07 GMT
In a few years' time a lot of MPs are going to be complaining about the strange shapes of their new constituencies which will be the direct result of their decision to reduce the tolerance to 5%. It's notable the number of times you have to switch two wards to hit the quota but in doing so you mangle the shape of the seats in question. Partly a result of the 5% limit, but equally partly because of the Boundary Commission's usual insistence of not splitting wards. If the BCE were to be willing to split wards in only a few places in each region, a lot of the angsty kerfuffle would be avoided.
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