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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 5, 2023 11:11:48 GMT
That is true but that is not all Harry's post shows. My rough calculations suggest that the swing described would result in a quite comfortable Labour majority. I don't know exactly what the swing required for an overall majority of 1 would be as I don't have meaningful notional results for all seats but it is clearly much less than 14.44% (a risible level of precision for a number that turns out to be totally wrong). So even if one uncritically accepted UNS (which is not without some value as a concept actually), the post also shows that Harry's calculations are rubbish - which will be a surprise to precisely noone. So far as England and Wales are concerned, the map you produced looks highly plausible. It's notable that in the southern shires Labour are more successful than the Lib Dems in picking up Tory seats, which definitely accords with my expectation. But Scotland doesn't look right. Labour ought to do better than shown, and surely the Tories will hang on to at least a handful of Scottish seats rather than the total wipeout shown here. This isn't a criticism - I appreciate this is a UNS projection, not a prediction. But it would be worth hanging onto it because my guess is that (Scotland aside) it won't be that far off the mark.
I suspect it won't be quite as bad as that in the South in that I'd expect some of those (what are very narrow on this swing) Labour gains in places like Aylesbury, Banbury and Hitchin not to come off (but then as I say I'd expect some compensatory gains in places in the Midlands which are harder on paper (eg Nuneaton) The Scottish results are as you say meaningless as this is purely done on a straight Conservative to Labour swing. The reality would be many more Labour gains in the central belt and I agree the Conservatives will hold on to a few. Incidentally Woodley & Earley should be a Labour seat on my map |
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Post by matureleft on Aug 5, 2023 11:19:26 GMT
What seems increasingly clear is that we will see much more tactical voting intended to achieve Tory defeat. By-elections have demonstrated that, and the co-operation of the key English parties has been near explicit. Achieving similar effects in a general election with larger turnouts and national media input will be much harder than in a by-election and success will certainly be incomplete. But I’d be most surprised if we don’t see well above average swings in more places than normal.
But I welcome the broad thrust of much of this discussion. There’s been a surprisingly broad presumption of Tory defeat, even humiliation and of a Labour working majority. Getting to the latter is a huge task for the party and a major challenge to the electorate requiring an unusually high number of previously Tory minds to be changed either to supporting an opposition party or staying at home. Nothing is impossible but we are a long way short of that being the likeliest outcome of a 2024 election on the new boundaries.
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Post by islington on Aug 5, 2023 12:12:50 GMT
So far as England and Wales are concerned, the map you produced looks highly plausible. It's notable that in the southern shires Labour are more successful than the Lib Dems in picking up Tory seats, which definitely accords with my expectation. But Scotland doesn't look right. Labour ought to do better than shown, and surely the Tories will hang on to at least a handful of Scottish seats rather than the total wipeout shown here. This isn't a criticism - I appreciate this is a UNS projection, not a prediction. But it would be worth hanging onto it because my guess is that (Scotland aside) it won't be that far off the mark.
I suspect it won't be quite as bad as that in the South in that I'd expect some of those (what are very narrow on this swing) Labour gains in places like Aylesbury, Banbury and Hitchin not to come off (but then as I say I'd expect some compensatory gains in places in the Midlands which are harder on paper (eg Nuneaton) The Scottish results are as you say meaningless as this is purely done on a straight Conservative to Labour swing. The reality would be many more Labour gains in the central belt and I agree the Conservatives will hold on to a few. Incidentally Woodley & Earley should be a Labour seat on my map Well, of course it's all very speculative at this stage, and who knows? Maybe the Tories will confound us all by dramatically closing the gap by the time the GE rolls round.
But assuming Labour achieve a large lead in the popular vote, even if it's less than current polling suggests, then my gut feeling is that the culture war stuff, and cutting the green crap, will play relatively well for the Tories in the Brexity seats they gained from Labour at the last two GEs. So while I'd expect Labour to recapture a lot of these seats, I'd anticipate that the Tories will outperform the national swing sufficiently to allow them to hang on to the Nuneatons of this world. On the other hand, in more Remainish rural seats I am guessing that the anti-Tory swing will be greater than the national average and I will venture on the prediction that in areas like this Labour will make at least a couple of shock gains, maybe from third place, in seats that no one has thought of as serious Labour prospects.
In short I am boldly predicting the Labour won't gain Nuneaton but (assuming a large national lead in the popular vote) are quite likely to pick up seats like Hitchin.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 5, 2023 12:22:04 GMT
I suspect it won't be quite as bad as that in the South in that I'd expect some of those (what are very narrow on this swing) Labour gains in places like Aylesbury, Banbury and Hitchin not to come off (but then as I say I'd expect some compensatory gains in places in the Midlands which are harder on paper (eg Nuneaton) The Scottish results are as you say meaningless as this is purely done on a straight Conservative to Labour swing. The reality would be many more Labour gains in the central belt and I agree the Conservatives will hold on to a few. Incidentally Woodley & Earley should be a Labour seat on my map Well, of course it's all very speculative at this stage, and who knows? Maybe the Tories will confound us all by dramatically closing the gap by the time the GE rolls round. But assuming Labour achieve a large lead in the popular vote, even if it's less than current polling suggests, then my gut feeling is that the culture war stuff, and cutting the green crap, will play relatively well for the Tories in the Brexity seats they gained from Labour at the last two GEs. So while I'd expect Labour to recapture a lot of these seats, I'd anticipate that the Tories will outperform the national swing sufficiently to allow them to hang on to the Nuneatons of this world. On the other hand, in more Remainish rural seats I am guessing that the anti-Tory swing will be greater than the national average and I will venture on the prediction that in areas like this Labour will make at least a couple of shock gains, maybe from third place, in seats that no one has thought of as serious Labour prospects.
In short I am boldly predicting the Labour won't gain Nuneaton but (assuming a large national lead in the popular vote) are quite likely to pick up seats like Hitchin.
You may of course be right - as you say 'who knows?'. But personally I expect something like the opposite in that I expect a certain reversion to 'normality' although underlying trends will of course play a part. Many of the affluent Southern seats already saw a movement (relative or absolulte) against the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019 so i think much of the effect you describe is already priced in and the potential for further movement consequently reduced. Converesely the swings over the last couple of elections in places like Bassetlaw, Cannock Chase etc is so large that there is the potential for a massive swing back. That is not to say I would be shocked to see Labour gain Hitchin or for the Tories to hold Nuneaton, but in general I would expect the swing to Labour to be greater in the Midlands (and parts of the North) than in the Home Counties due to the relative appeal of Sunak vs Johnson, the receding of Brexit and perhaps a more traditional Conservative offer on issues like inheritance tax. |
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Post by islington on Aug 5, 2023 12:36:13 GMT
What seems increasingly clear is that we will see much more tactical voting intended to achieve Tory defeat. By-elections have demonstrated that, and the co-operation of the key English parties has been near explicit. Achieving similar effects in a general election with larger turnouts and national media input will be much harder than in a by-election and success will certainly be incomplete. But I’d be most surprised if we don’t see well above average swings in more places than normal. But I welcome the broad thrust of much of this discussion. There’s been a surprisingly broad presumption of Tory defeat, even humiliation and of a Labour working majority. Getting to the latter is a huge task for the party and a major challenge to the electorate requiring an unusually high number of previously Tory minds to be changed either to supporting an opposition party or staying at home. Nothing is impossible but we are a long way short of that being the likeliest outcome of a 2024 election on the new boundaries. This will certainly be a factor but to nothing like the extent that byelections would indicate.
Tactical voting is relatively easy to promote at byelections because attention is focused on the seat itself rather than on the national picture; and specifically where the challenge is mounted by the Lib Dems because their campaign tactics (flood the area with workers) and national policy stance (complete lack thereof) are brilliantly suited to this kind of one-off effort. But this approach isn't possible at a GE, where most of the attention is on the likely overall outcome, so in Tory-held seats I'd expect the Lib Dems to do a lot worse, and Labour far better, than byelection results would indicate. If I'm right, this means that the Tories will do relatively well at hanging on to these seats, even on a greatly reduced vote share, because the opposing vote will be divided. On the other hand, there will be a number of these seats - those that are relatively less safe for the Tories - where a large reduction in vote share spells defeat anyway; but I'm guessing that this will more often be at the hands of Labour, not the Lib Dems. This potentially may occur even in a few seats where Labour start from third place.
My reasoning is that even in rural seats with big Tory majorities, there is often a larger potential Labour vote than results indicate. This factor is easily overlooked because, in normal circumstances, a lot of potential Labour supporters either vote for the Lib Dem in the (usually vain) hope of unseating the Tory, or else they simply see no point in voting and stay home. But if, at the next GE, Labour enjoy a large polling lead and are apparently heading for government, I'd expect these voters to be excited and energized and to vote with their heart. If the Tory vote falls badly and the Lib Dems fail to advance anything like as much as byelections imply, I fully expect Labour to make at least a couple of shock gains on the strength of this latent support.
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Post by islington on Aug 5, 2023 12:50:14 GMT
Well, of course it's all very speculative at this stage, and who knows? Maybe the Tories will confound us all by dramatically closing the gap by the time the GE rolls round. But assuming Labour achieve a large lead in the popular vote, even if it's less than current polling suggests, then my gut feeling is that the culture war stuff, and cutting the green crap, will play relatively well for the Tories in the Brexity seats they gained from Labour at the last two GEs. So while I'd expect Labour to recapture a lot of these seats, I'd anticipate that the Tories will outperform the national swing sufficiently to allow them to hang on to the Nuneatons of this world. On the other hand, in more Remainish rural seats I am guessing that the anti-Tory swing will be greater than the national average and I will venture on the prediction that in areas like this Labour will make at least a couple of shock gains, maybe from third place, in seats that no one has thought of as serious Labour prospects.
In short I am boldly predicting the Labour won't gain Nuneaton but (assuming a large national lead in the popular vote) are quite likely to pick up seats like Hitchin.
You may of course be right - as you say 'who knows?'. But personally I expect something like the opposite in that I expect a certain reversion to 'normality' although underlying trends will of course play a part. Many of the affluent Southern seats already saw a movement (relative or absolulte) against the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019 so i think much of the effect you describe is already priced in and the potential for further movement consequently reduced. Converesely the swings over the last couple of elections in places like Bassetlaw, Cannock Chase etc is so large that there is the potential for a massive swing back. That is not to say I would be shocked to see Labour gain Hitchin or for the Tories to hold Nuneaton, but in general I would expect the swing to Labour to be greater in the Midlands (and parts of the North) than in the Home Counties due to the relative appeal of Sunak vs Johnson, the receding of Brexit and perhaps a more traditional Conservative offer on issues like inheritance tax. Well, Pete, can we shake (virtual) hands on a friendly no-stakes wager here?
I am saying that at the next GE the Labour-Tory swing will be more favourable to Labour in Tory-held remainerish seats with no recent history of going Labour ('Blue Wall' for want of a better term) than in Brexity seats that the Tories captured from Labour in 2017 or 2019 ('Red Wall').
You are saying the opposite: i.e. that Labour will do relatively better, in terms of swing, in the Red Wall than in the Blue Wall.
After the next GE we can tally up the numbers and the winner gets bragging rights.
Have we a deal?
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Aug 5, 2023 17:21:28 GMT
Well, of course it's all very speculative at this stage, and who knows? Maybe the Tories will confound us all by dramatically closing the gap by the time the GE rolls round. But assuming Labour achieve a large lead in the popular vote, even if it's less than current polling suggests, then my gut feeling is that the culture war stuff, and cutting the green crap, will play relatively well for the Tories in the Brexity seats they gained from Labour at the last two GEs. So while I'd expect Labour to recapture a lot of these seats, I'd anticipate that the Tories will outperform the national swing sufficiently to allow them to hang on to the Nuneatons of this world. On the other hand, in more Remainish rural seats I am guessing that the anti-Tory swing will be greater than the national average and I will venture on the prediction that in areas like this Labour will make at least a couple of shock gains, maybe from third place, in seats that no one has thought of as serious Labour prospects.
In short I am boldly predicting the Labour won't gain Nuneaton but (assuming a large national lead in the popular vote) are quite likely to pick up seats like Hitchin.
You may of course be right - as you say 'who knows?'. But personally I expect something like the opposite in that I expect a certain reversion to 'normality' although underlying trends will of course play a part. Many of the affluent Southern seats already saw a movement (relative or absolulte) against the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019 so i think much of the effect you describe is already priced in and the potential for further movement consequently reduced. Converesely the swings over the last couple of elections in places like Bassetlaw, Cannock Chase etc is so large that there is the potential for a massive swing back. That is not to say I would be shocked to see Labour gain Hitchin or for the Tories to hold Nuneaton, but in general I would expect the swing to Labour to be greater in the Midlands (and parts of the North) than in the Home Counties due to the relative appeal of Sunak vs Johnson, the receding of Brexit and perhaps a more traditional Conservative offer on issues like inheritance tax. Im torn on this. My knowledge of politics has led me to to agree with Islington's reasoning, but as you say, much of the swing to Labour has probably already happened in the more remainy seats, for instance I don't expect large swings to Labour in places like Portsmouth South or Canterbury, and as the Labour lead seems to be exacerbated by apathy amongst previously Conservative voters there is potentially more scope for big Labour swings in Brexit seats. We mustn't forget that seats such as Bishop Auckland have been trending Conservative for more than a decade and would have done at a slower pace even if Brexit wouldn't have happened. As for Warwickshire, I think Rugby is more likely to go Labour from than Nuneaton is, which I expect to be a narrow Conservative hold, with maybe a few hundred votes in it. This is assuming a closing of the lead to around 9 percent and a late autumn general election next year. |
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Aug 5, 2023 17:23:59 GMT
Also, due to Labour and Lib Dems potentially polling well in Hitchin type seats, the Conservatives could hold a good number of these with around 35 percent of the vote, but lose 'red wall' seats despite polling around 40 percent.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 5, 2023 18:29:17 GMT
You may of course be right - as you say 'who knows?'. But personally I expect something like the opposite in that I expect a certain reversion to 'normality' although underlying trends will of course play a part. Many of the affluent Southern seats already saw a movement (relative or absolulte) against the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019 so i think much of the effect you describe is already priced in and the potential for further movement consequently reduced. Converesely the swings over the last couple of elections in places like Bassetlaw, Cannock Chase etc is so large that there is the potential for a massive swing back. That is not to say I would be shocked to see Labour gain Hitchin or for the Tories to hold Nuneaton, but in general I would expect the swing to Labour to be greater in the Midlands (and parts of the North) than in the Home Counties due to the relative appeal of Sunak vs Johnson, the receding of Brexit and perhaps a more traditional Conservative offer on issues like inheritance tax. Well, Pete, can we shake (virtual) hands on a friendly no-stakes wager here? I am saying that at the next GE the Labour-Tory swing will be more favourable to Labour in Tory-held remainerish seats with no recent history of going Labour ('Blue Wall' for want of a better term) than in Brexity seats that the Tories captured from Labour in 2017 or 2019 ('Red Wall'). You are saying the opposite: i.e. that Labour will do relatively better, in terms of swing, in the Red Wall than in the Blue Wall.
After the next GE we can tally up the numbers and the winner gets bragging rights. Have we a deal?
Yes althuogh we will have to do a better job of defining these concepts than some of the polling companies have done |
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Post by matureleft on Aug 5, 2023 19:03:43 GMT
What seems increasingly clear is that we will see much more tactical voting intended to achieve Tory defeat. By-elections have demonstrated that, and the co-operation of the key English parties has been near explicit. Achieving similar effects in a general election with larger turnouts and national media input will be much harder than in a by-election and success will certainly be incomplete. But I’d be most surprised if we don’t see well above average swings in more places than normal. But I welcome the broad thrust of much of this discussion. There’s been a surprisingly broad presumption of Tory defeat, even humiliation and of a Labour working majority. Getting to the latter is a huge task for the party and a major challenge to the electorate requiring an unusually high number of previously Tory minds to be changed either to supporting an opposition party or staying at home. Nothing is impossible but we are a long way short of that being the likeliest outcome of a 2024 election on the new boundaries. This will certainly be a factor but to nothing like the extent that byelections would indicate.
Tactical voting is relatively easy to promote at byelections because attention is focused on the seat itself rather than on the national picture; and specifically where the challenge is mounted by the Lib Dems because their campaign tactics (flood the area with workers) and national policy stance (complete lack thereof) are brilliantly suited to this kind of one-off effort. But this approach isn't possible at a GE, where most of the attention is on the likely overall outcome, so in Tory-held seats I'd expect the Lib Dems to do a lot worse, and Labour far better, than byelection results would indicate. If I'm right, this means that the Tories will do relatively well at hanging on to these seats, even on a greatly reduced vote share, because the opposing vote will be divided. On the other hand, there will be a number of these seats - those that are relatively less safe for the Tories - where a large reduction in vote share spells defeat anyway; but I'm guessing that this will more often be at the hands of Labour, not the Lib Dems. This potentially may occur even in a few seats where Labour start from third place.
My reasoning is that even in rural seats with big Tory majorities, there is often a larger potential Labour vote than results indicate. This factor is easily overlooked because, in normal circumstances, a lot of potential Labour supporters either vote for the Lib Dem in the (usually vain) hope of unseating the Tory, or else they simply see no point in voting and stay home. But if, at the next GE, Labour enjoy a large polling need and are apparently heading for government, I'd expect these voters to be excited and energized and to vote with their heart. If the Tory vote falls badly and the Lib Dems fail to advance anything like as much as byelections imply, I fully expect Labour to make at least a couple of completely unexpected gains on the strength of this latent support.
Well yes, and I say it’ll be much harder. But this will be down to the Lib Dem ground game. They haven’t the resources to run big campaigns in all possible targets and overriding the national “feel” of an election takes a lot of work. If they repeat 2019 with their ill-focused efforts then you are definitely right. However a sensible campaign aimed at perhaps 20 fairly obvious targets should be manageable. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Aug 6, 2023 9:52:20 GMT
What seems increasingly clear is that we will see much more tactical voting intended to achieve Tory defeat. By-elections have demonstrated that, and the co-operation of the key English parties has been near explicit. Achieving similar effects in a general election with larger turnouts and national media input will be much harder than in a by-election and success will certainly be incomplete. But I’d be most surprised if we don’t see well above average swings in more places than normal. But I welcome the broad thrust of much of this discussion. There’s been a surprisingly broad presumption of Tory defeat, even humiliation and of a Labour working majority. Getting to the latter is a huge task for the party and a major challenge to the electorate requiring an unusually high number of previously Tory minds to be changed either to supporting an opposition party or staying at home. Nothing is impossible but we are a long way short of that being the likeliest outcome of a 2024 election on the new boundaries. There is the danger that a tactical voting campaign will confuse voters and end up producing the very result it seeks to avoid - the 2019 recommendation to vote LD in Kensington being a clear example. In other cases reliance on 2019 results to base such recommendations would be naive by failing to take account of local factors prevalent at the time. In both Cities of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green Labour is likely to be the stronger challenger regardless of the 2019 results there. Some seats may become genuine three- way contests in which the parties simply have to fight it out - Wimbledon comes to mind as a possibility. There are also seats such as Carshalton & Wallington which may surprise in that whilst the LDs have been the major anti-Tory challenger since the 1980x, Labour did show significant strength there in the past - ie the seat was a Tory/Labour marginal at both 1974 elections. In recent years Labour's vote has been depressed by massive tactical voting for the LDs, but now that the Tories have recaptured the seat - and Tom Brake is not standing again - that may unwind and raises the possibility of a Labour revival there. The precedent of Portsmouth South comes to mind.
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Post by islington on Aug 6, 2023 10:25:23 GMT
What seems increasingly clear is that we will see much more tactical voting intended to achieve Tory defeat. By-elections have demonstrated that, and the co-operation of the key English parties has been near explicit. Achieving similar effects in a general election with larger turnouts and national media input will be much harder than in a by-election and success will certainly be incomplete. But I’d be most surprised if we don’t see well above average swings in more places than normal. But I welcome the broad thrust of much of this discussion. There’s been a surprisingly broad presumption of Tory defeat, even humiliation and of a Labour working majority. Getting to the latter is a huge task for the party and a major challenge to the electorate requiring an unusually high number of previously Tory minds to be changed either to supporting an opposition party or staying at home. Nothing is impossible but we are a long way short of that being the likeliest outcome of a 2024 election on the new boundaries. There is the danger that a tactical voting campaign will confuse voters and end up producing the very result it seeks to avoid - the 2019 recommendation to vote LD in Kensington being a clear example. In other cases reliance on 2019 results to base such recommendations would be naive by failing to take account of local factors prevalent at the time. In both Cities of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green Labour is likely to be the stronger challenger regardless of the 2019 results there. Some seats may become genuine three- way contests in which the parties simply have to fight it out - Wimbledon comes to mind as a possibility. There are also seats such as Carshalton & Wallington which may surprise in that whilst the LDs have been the major anti-Tory challenger since the 1980x, Labour did show significant strength there in the past - ie the seat was a Tory/Labour marginal at both 1974 elections. In recent years Labour's vote has been depressed by massive tactical voting for the LDs, but now that the Tories have recaptured the seat - and Tom Brake is not standing again - that may unwind and raises the possibility of a Labour revival there. The precedent of Portsmouth South comes to mind.
Well exactly. It's one thing to promote tactical voting at a byelection; quite another at a GE when the messaging has to be different from one constituency to the next, and it has to try to get through to low-information voters who (especially after boundary changes) hardly know which seat they live in, much less who is better placed to topple the Tory. And if, in any particular seat, Labour (or the Lib Dems) know they have a solid 20% core vote to rely on, then it's absurd to expect them meekly to back off and tell their supporters to vote for someone else. So in a lot of places voters will be bombarded with confusing and contradictory messages from Labour and the Lib Dems, each saying they stand a great chance of beating the Tory if only non-Tory voters will rally behind them. The irony is that they are probably both correct, but their rival messages will tend to cancel out so the Tories will stand a decent chance of hanging on to seats like this through a divided opposition vote.
It will be fascinating to see how it all plays out. My current working assumption is that the Tories are heading for a severe defeat but not a wipeout or anything like it; they could easily be reduced to 150-ish but I shall be much surprised if they fall much below that. In other words, I expect rural southern England still to be largely blue, albeit with more splashes of red, and occasionally yellow, than it has now. I do expect Labour to get, at the least, an adequate governing majority, and perhaps considerably more than that.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 15, 2023 23:26:17 GMT
I note from the Court Circular that His Majesty held a Council yesterday at Dumfries House, at 5:30 PM.
We await the list of Orders made.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 18, 2023 8:26:01 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Sept 18, 2023 15:43:14 GMT
So when is the Order in Council going to be passed to officially pass these new boundaries into law, then?
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Post by willoughby on Sept 26, 2023 15:04:53 GMT
Yes they don't seem to be in much of a hurry do they?! all a bit odd really
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 26, 2023 16:42:25 GMT
Oh please God don't let them "time out" or be forgotten about.
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 26, 2023 16:46:48 GMT
Maybe the Government have decided to go back to 600 seats?
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Sept 26, 2023 17:04:36 GMT
Maybe in order to convince Eddie Hughes not to stand in the Tamworth by-election, the government promised him an abandonment of the boundary review to let him stay in Walsall North?
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 27, 2023 12:39:22 GMT
Oh please God don't let them "time out" or be forgotten about. nah, they'll just hold a quick snap election on the current boundaries before bringing them in |
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