|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 4, 2022 13:28:03 GMT
Lots of Black Belt counties in GA, AL and MS
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 4, 2022 13:52:05 GMT
Yes, but not only. Highlighted in Black.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2022 2:57:36 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2022 3:32:25 GMT
In 2008, Mary Landrieu beat John Kennedy for US Senate in Louisiana. Kennedy would win in 2016. John Thune is another Senate candidate who won on the second go, beating Tom Daschle.
The key takeaway here is the amount of ticket splitting in the 2000s. Maine and West Virginia also stand out.
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Mar 7, 2022 3:42:38 GMT
In 2008, Mary Landrieu beat John Kennedy for US Senate in Louisiana. Kennedy would win in 2014. John Thune is another Senate candidate who won on the second go, beating Tom Daschle. The key takeaway here is the amount of ticket splitting in the 2000s. Maine and West Virginia also stand out. *2016
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2022 4:04:18 GMT
In 2008, Mary Landrieu beat John Kennedy for US Senate in Louisiana. Kennedy would win in 2014. John Thune is another Senate candidate who won on the second go, beating Tom Daschle. The key takeaway here is the amount of ticket splitting in the 2000s. Maine and West Virginia also stand out. *2016 Oh yes of course. Trying to show off what you know on this site gets trickier the more you do it.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 7, 2022 12:49:08 GMT
In 2008, Mary Landrieu beat John Kennedy for US Senate in Louisiana. Kennedy would win in 2016. John Thune is another Senate candidate who won on the second go, beating Tom Daschle. The key takeaway here is the amount of ticket splitting in the 2000s. Maine and West Virginia also stand out. 2008, Pres. vs. Sen.: Sen., 2008 vs. 2014: 2008 Sen.: Trend, Pres. 2008 vs. 2020:
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 8, 2022 13:27:40 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2022 5:12:02 GMT
As the Austin-based Texas's 35th is almost certain to send democratic socialist Greg Casar to Congress, here is the 2012-20 swing in Travis County (where Austin is located).
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2022 7:02:51 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2022 7:17:30 GMT
Do you have a map of Bush winning the county in 2000?
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 10, 2022 10:49:17 GMT
Do you have a map of Bush winning the county in 2000? No, unfortunately not.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 10, 2022 12:45:54 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2022 23:05:40 GMT
Do you have a map of Bush winning the county in 2000? No, unfortunately not. Do you think you could guess by reversing the R to D swing?
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,230
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 11, 2022 3:04:56 GMT
Do you think you could guess by reversing the R to D swing? Guessed, TravisC. would have shifted ~20% to the left, but it were "only" ~16%.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2022 5:18:53 GMT
Wake County is key to Democrats' competitiveness in North Carolina. I guess Raleigh is named for Walter? Despite the shift in areas like Wake Co, NC favors the GOP with Dems not having won a Presidential or Senate election since '08.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2022 7:16:00 GMT
Where do the Electoral Votes lost by the Midwest go? Like many people from there, they end up in the sunbelt. Key wins here contributed to Biden's victory - Arizona and Georgia went blue for the first time since the 90s. Trump won the sunbelt in 2020 but the demography of much of the area favours Democrats long-term, with many transplants moving in. Still, there are nuances, with Arkansas, Nevada and, most notably, Florida moving to the right in 2020. Florida, North Carolina, and Texas all gain Congressional seats and Electoral Votes, but California loses one. It won't surprise me if Arizona has 12 Electoral Votes by 2032. The state could overtake Michigan's EV count in our lifetimes. This region is booming, as 2020's census shows. The sunbelt illustrates the GOP's long-term problems. If Dems flip North Carolina, Rs will still be sub-270 even with MI, NV, PA and WI: www.270towin.com/maps/GkyAJ
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Mar 11, 2022 9:09:48 GMT
Where do the Electoral Votes lost by the Midwest go? Like many people from there, they end up in the sunbelt. Key wins here contributed to Biden's victory - Arizona and Georgia went blue for the first time since the 90s. Trump won the sunbelt in 2020 but the demography of much of the area favours Democrats long-term, with many transplants moving in. Still, there are nuances, with Arkansas, Nevada and, most notably, Florida moving to the right in 2020. Florida, North Carolina, and Texas all gain Congressional seats and Electoral Votes, but California loses one. It won't surprise me if Arizona has 12 Electoral Votes by 2032. The state could overtake Michigan's EV count in our lifetimes. This region is booming, as 2020's census shows. The sunbelt illustrates the GOP's long-term problems. If Dems flip North Carolina, Rs will still be sub-270 even with MI, NV, PA and WI: www.270towin.com/maps/GkyAJ North Carolina is stagnant, and the GOP have a lot of room to grow in the rural areas.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2022 7:50:26 GMT
Casar's TX-35 primary win in Travis Co. reminds me of this map. Casar is a Democratic Socialists of America member. Travis is democratic socialist on the map.
South Texas' counties are mostly labelled social-democratic. I wonder if they are like that and if that means Cuellar wins May's TX-28 runoff?
Socialists are running in the 12th districts of New York and Pennsylvania too, in Manhattan and Pittsburgh, both in counties that are social democratic on that map.
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Mar 12, 2022 14:18:34 GMT
Casar's TX-35 primary win in Travis Co. reminds me of this map. Casar is a Democratic Socialists of America member. Travis is democratic socialist on the map. South Texas' counties are mostly labelled social-democratic. I wonder if they are like that and if that means Cuellar wins May's TX-28 runoff? Socialists are running in the 12th districts of New York and Pennsylvania too, in Manhattan and Pittsburgh, both in counties that are social democratic on that map. calling Starr county Democratic socialist is something… He also put a lot of fiscally Conservative Suburban counties in the Social Democratic category.
|
|