New / Abolished seats ahead of the next GE

[Clark]

Apologies if this has been spoken about in other threads.

I note the Boundary Commission are to announce new constituency boundaries in 2023 with the Tories set to benefit with Labour and possibly the Lib Dems set to lose out.

Wales and the North of England are currently over represented and the South-East under.  This will make Labour's already tough challenge in 2024 even greater. 

What seats do we expect to see go and what new ones are we likely to see - i know for example that the Isle of Wight is now projected to have 2 seats...

[John Chanin]

Dec 1, 2020 21:08:42 GMT Clark said:

Apologies if this has been spoken about in other threads.

I note the Boundary Commission are to announce new constituency boundaries in 2023 with the Tories set to benefit with Labour and possibly the Lib Dems set to lose out.

Wales and the North of England are currently over represented and the South-East under.  This will make Labour's already tough challenge in 2024 even greater. 

What seats do we expect to see go and what new ones are we likely to see - i know for example that the Isle of Wight is now projected to have 2 seats...

I refer you to the thread Dec2019 Electorates, where there is extensive discussion of this.  Probably we will set up a new thread once the final electorate figures to be used by the Boundary Commissions have been published. 

[Harry Hayfield]

I can tell you straight away that Brecon and Radnorshire, Montgomeryshire, Ceredigion, Carmarthen East and Carmarthen West are all likely to go, however what they are replaced with is anyone's guess (the one thing I do know is that they are likely to be all notionally Conservative)

[Penddu]

All of Wales existing 40 seats will be abolished (with exception of Ynys Mon) and with few of the new 32/33 seats resembling the existing seats.

But to suggest that Ceredigion and Carmarthen East are notionally conservative is nonsense. They are both currently held by Plaid Cymru and with Lib Dems and Labour the main contender respectively.

Whether 32 or 33 seats, Dyfed is easily divided into 4 seats - probably Ceredigion & Preseli, Pembrokeshire South and West, Caerfyrddin, Llanelli & Amman - but other combinations and names are possible.

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 7, 2020 15:29:26 GMT Penddu said:

All of Wales existing 40 seats will be abolished (with exception of Ynys Mon) and with few of the new 32/33 seats resembling the existing seats.

But to suggest that Ceredigion and Carmarthen East are notionally conservative is nonsense. They are both currently held by Plaid Cymru and with Lib Dems and Labour the main contender respectively.

Whether 32 or 33 seats, Dyfed is easily divided into 4 seats - probably Ceredigion & Preseli, Pembrokeshire South and West, Caerfyrddin, Llanelli & Amman - but other combinations and names are possible.

The Tories were a close second in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr at the last election and a more distant second in Ceredigion. It's certainly possible to imagine a reunified Carmarthen seat which would be notionally Conservative based on the last election results - Ceredigion is less likely but again a reversion to the pre-1997 boundaries could make it close.
But really you should know by now that when Harry says he 'knows' something to be true, it is guaranteed to be false

[Harry Hayfield]

Allow me to explain why the new Ceredigion could start off as Con

Ceredigion 2019: Plaid 15,208 Con 8,879 Lib Dem 6,975 Lab 6,317 Brexit 2,063 Green 663 (Electorate: 56,248)
The current Ceredigion is at least 16,000 electors below quota therefore needs to expand, the best way it can do that is gobbling up Preseli
Preseli 2019: Plaid 2,776 Con 21,381 Lib Dem 1,943 Lab 16,319 Brexit 0 Green 0 (Electorate: 59,577)

For every percent of the electorate that Ceredigion gobbles up from Preseli, the Conservatives gain 214 votes and Plaid gain 28 votes, therefore it would only take 34% of Preseli added to Ceredigion to make Ceredigion a notional Conservative seat and make the new Ceredigion a seat in the eyes of the law.

[European Lefty]

Dec 7, 2020 16:46:58 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Allow me to explain why the new Ceredigion could start off as Con

Ceredigion 2019: Plaid 15,208 Con 8,879 Lib Dem 6,975 Lab 6,317 Brexit 2,063 Green 663 (Electorate: 56,248)
The current Ceredigion is at least 16,000 electors below quota therefore needs to expand, the best way it can do that is gobbling up Preseli
Preseli 2019: Plaid 2,776 Con 21,381 Lib Dem 1,943 Lab 16,319 Brexit 0 Green 0 (Electorate: 59,577)

For every percent of the electorate that Ceredigion gobbles up from Preseli, the Conservatives gain 214 votes and Plaid gain 28 votes, therefore it would only take 34% of Preseli added to Ceredigion to make Ceredigion a notional Conservative seat and make the new Ceredigion a seat in the eyes of the law.

Assuming that the vote shares were constant across Preseli Pembrokeshire (highly unlikely) and that Ceredigion doesn't swallow the more Plaid/Labour friendly areas (likely to take Fishguard and all of the added area is north of the Landsker line)

[Foggy]

Dec 7, 2020 16:46:58 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Allow me to explain why the new Ceredigion could start off as Con

Ceredigion 2019: Plaid 15,208 Con 8,879 Lib Dem 6,975 Lab 6,317 Brexit 2,063 Green 663 (Electorate: 56,248)
The current Ceredigion is at least 16,000 electors below quota therefore needs to expand, the best way it can do that is gobbling up Preseli
Preseli 2019: Plaid 2,776 Con 21,381 Lib Dem 1,943 Lab 16,319 Brexit 0 Green 0 (Electorate: 59,577)

For every percent of the electorate that Ceredigion gobbles up from Preseli, the Conservatives gain 214 votes and Plaid gain 28 votes, therefore it would only take 34% of Preseli added to Ceredigion to make Ceredigion a notional Conservative seat and make the new Ceredigion a seat in the eyes of the law.

Whatever the merits or otherwise of your calculation, notional results are only used by the media for the purpose of figuring out gains and losses at the following election, and have no legal status whatsoever in this country. 

[Harry Hayfield]

Dec 8, 2020 3:29:23 GMT Foggy said:

Dec 7, 2020 16:46:58 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Allow me to explain why the new Ceredigion could start off as Con

Ceredigion 2019: Plaid 15,208 Con 8,879 Lib Dem 6,975 Lab 6,317 Brexit 2,063 Green 663 (Electorate: 56,248)
The current Ceredigion is at least 16,000 electors below quota therefore needs to expand, the best way it can do that is gobbling up Preseli
Preseli 2019: Plaid 2,776 Con 21,381 Lib Dem 1,943 Lab 16,319 Brexit 0 Green 0 (Electorate: 59,577)

For every percent of the electorate that Ceredigion gobbles up from Preseli, the Conservatives gain 214 votes and Plaid gain 28 votes, therefore it would only take 34% of Preseli added to Ceredigion to make Ceredigion a notional Conservative seat and make the new Ceredigion a seat in the eyes of the law.

Whatever the merits or otherwise of your calculation, notional results are only used by the media for the purpose of figuring out gains and losses at the following election, and have no legal status whatsoever in this country. 

I completely agree with that statement, however I meant "in the eyes of the law" stating that every constituency must be within 95% to 105% of the electoral quota (which I believe is likely to be set at around 72,000). However, I have now discovered that that would make the constituency 106.25% of the electoral quota so therefore too large, as a result I withdraw my original statement. The new Ceredigion would indeed be a Plaid Cymru seat (albeit a marginal).

[greenhert]

Thankfully it will be only a week before the ONS releases their March 2020 electorate data that will be used in the Boundary Review. Given that barring a few cases of substantial electorate growth it will not differ significantly from the December 2019 electoral data, I can say that the abolition of these constituencies is pretty much a fait accompli at this point:

Brigg & Goole
Stone
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
Cardiff Central
Wyre & Preston North
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Arfon

There will be others of course but I do not believe any of the above current constituencies have any chance of survival.

Amongst the new seats that will be created, these seats are virtually certain to be amongst them:

Thornbury
Tenterden
West Buckinghamshire
Rutland & Stamford
Brixton
Croydon West

[Foggy]

Dec 28, 2020 23:14:07 GMT greenhert said:

Thankfully it will be only a week before the ONS releases their March 2020 electorate data that will be used in the Boundary Review. Given that barring a few cases of substantial electorate growth it will not differ significantly from the December 2019 electoral data, I can say that the abolition of these constituencies is pretty much a fait accompli at this point:

Brigg & Goole
Stone
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
Cardiff Central
Wyre & Preston North
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Arfon

There will be others of course but I do not believe any of the above current constituencies have any chance of survival.

Amongst the new seats that will be created, these seats are virtually certain to be amongst them:

Thornbury
Tenterden
West Buckinghamshire
Rutland & Stamford
Brixton
Croydon West

Last time, the Commission took a dim view of the idea of combining Rutland with anything other than part of Leicestershire so I'd say that one is far from certain.

And of course, for the other five seats they might have different names in mind. 

[therealriga]

Dec 28, 2020 23:14:07 GMT greenhert said:

Thankfully it will be only a week before the ONS releases their March 2020 electorate data that will be used in the Boundary Review. Given that barring a few cases of substantial electorate growth it will not differ significantly from the December 2019 electoral data, I can say that the abolition of these constituencies is pretty much a fait accompli at this point:

Brigg & Goole
Stone
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
Cardiff Central
Wyre & Preston North
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Arfon

There will be others of course but I do not believe any of the above current constituencies have any chance of survival.

Amongst the new seats that will be created, these seats are virtually certain to be amongst them:

Thornbury
Tenterden
West Buckinghamshire
Rutland & Stamford
Brixton
Croydon West

A "Milton Keynes West & Buckingham" looks more likely in that part of the world.

[greenhert]

Dec 29, 2020 23:28:34 GMT therealriga said:

Dec 28, 2020 23:14:07 GMT greenhert said:

Thankfully it will be only a week before the ONS releases their March 2020 electorate data that will be used in the Boundary Review. Given that barring a few cases of substantial electorate growth it will not differ significantly from the December 2019 electoral data, I can say that the abolition of these constituencies is pretty much a fait accompli at this point:

Brigg & Goole
Stone
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
Cardiff Central
Wyre & Preston North
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Arfon

There will be others of course but I do not believe any of the above current constituencies have any chance of survival.

Amongst the new seats that will be created, these seats are virtually certain to be amongst them:

Thornbury
Tenterden
West Buckinghamshire
Rutland & Stamford
Brixton
Croydon West

A "Milton Keynes West & Buckingham" looks more likely in that part of the world.

We will likely get that as well but it will not be a new seat; rather it will be a successor to the current Buckingham constituency.

A "new" seat is one that is formed of parts of two or more seats, and where none of these parts are the largest part (and therefore closest successor) of any previous constituency. Filton & Bradley Stoke was thus a new seat in 2010 because none of its component parts were the largest part of any previous constituency.

[John Chanin]

Dec 30, 2020 12:56:50 GMT greenhert said:

Dec 29, 2020 23:28:34 GMT therealriga said:

A "Milton Keynes West & Buckingham" looks more likely in that part of the world.

We will likely get that as well but it will not be a new seat; rather it will be a successor to the current Buckingham constituency.

A "new" seat is one that is formed of parts of two or more seats, and where none of these parts are the largest part (and therefore closest successor) of any previous constituency. Filton & Bradley Stoke was thus a new seat in 2010 because none of its component parts were the largest part of any previous constituency.

Yes, and there are usually very few.  I have a large spreadsheet monitoring boundary changes since 1945, and those seats fitting your definition are highlighted in green.  There were quite a lot in 1983, but not many since.

Of course one also needs to recognise that there are new seats which contain the majority of two previous seats, and are therefore the successors to both.  These are commoner, and there will be several in Wales after the new redistribution.

[greenhert]

Dec 30, 2020 13:18:35 GMT John Chanin said:

Dec 30, 2020 12:56:50 GMT greenhert said:

We will likely get that as well but it will not be a new seat; rather it will be a successor to the current Buckingham constituency.

A "new" seat is one that is formed of parts of two or more seats, and where none of these parts are the largest part (and therefore closest successor) of any previous constituency. Filton & Bradley Stoke was thus a new seat in 2010 because none of its component parts were the largest part of any previous constituency.

Yes, and there are usually very few.  I have a large spreadsheet monitoring boundary changes since 1945, and those seats fitting your definition are highlighted in green.  There were quite a lot in 1983, but not many since.

Of course one also needs to recognise that there are new seats which contain the majority of two previous seats, and are therefore the successors to both.  These are commoner, and there will be several in Wales after the new redistribution.

I would not class those merged seats as new seats, even if they are in practice. A good example is when Holborn & St Pancras was created from Holborn & St Pancras South and St Pancras North in 1983. Holborn & St Pancras South was the largest component meaning that with the Highgate part of St Pancras North going into Hampstead & Highgate, St Pancras North was abolished and Holborn & St Pancras was considered the successor seat to Holborn & St Pancras South, despite the extent of the expansion in electorate terms.

[John Chanin]

Dec 30, 2020 14:32:56 GMT greenhert said:

Dec 30, 2020 13:18:35 GMT John Chanin said:

Yes, and there are usually very few.  I have a large spreadsheet monitoring boundary changes since 1945, and those seats fitting your definition are highlighted in green.  There were quite a lot in 1983, but not many since.

Of course one also needs to recognise that there are new seats which contain the majority of two previous seats, and are therefore the successors to both.  These are commoner, and there will be several in Wales after the new redistribution.

I would not class those merged seats as new seats, even if they are in practice. A good example is when Holborn & St Pancras was created from Holborn & St Pancras South and St Pancras North in 1983. Holborn & St Pancras South was the largest component meaning that with the Highgate part of St Pancras North going into Hampstead & Highgate, St Pancras North was abolished and Holborn & St Pancras was considered the successor seat to Holborn & St Pancras South, despite the extent of the expansion in electorate terms.

As a resident of St Pancras North at the time I would not agree.