|
Post by robert1 on Sept 20, 2021 16:33:51 GMT
Changes since May it would appear
|
|
|
Post by robert1 on Sept 20, 2021 16:34:12 GMT
Apologies for duplication. Don't know how to delete
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,483
|
Post by johng on Sept 20, 2021 20:29:49 GMT
One of the key things, of course, that helped Labour in May was Covid. The numbers are still super strong actually and we are actually seeing them improve slightly.
Thinking generally, do you prefer the approach that has been taken in Wales or the approach that has been taken in England? Wales - 71% England - 29%
Who do you trust to make the right decisions on Covid? Drakeford - 66% Johnson - 34%
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 20, 2021 21:26:26 GMT
One of the key things, of course, that helped Labour in May was Covid. The numbers are still super strong actually and we are actually seeing them improve slightly. Thinking generally, do you prefer the approach that has been taken in Wales or the approach that has been taken in England? Wales - 71% England - 29% Who do you trust to make the right decisions on Covid? Drakeford - 66% Johnson - 34% What if you want to answer “neither - they’re both shit” to those questions?!?
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,483
|
Post by johng on Sept 20, 2021 22:31:35 GMT
One of the key things, of course, that helped Labour in May was Covid. The numbers are still super strong actually and we are actually seeing them improve slightly. Thinking generally, do you prefer the approach that has been taken in Wales or the approach that has been taken in England? Wales - 71% England - 29% Who do you trust to make the right decisions on Covid? Drakeford - 66% Johnson - 34% What if you want to answer “neither - they’re both shit” to those questions?!?
With DK/ Neither, it was Wales - 60%. England 14%. Neither/DK - 26% and Drakeford - 54%. Johnson - 28%. Neither/DK - 18%.
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 21, 2021 8:46:07 GMT
Has someone frozen Roger Awan-Scully's twitter account? I didn't see any ramping for this poll!
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 21, 2021 11:43:16 GMT
Has someone frozen Roger Awan-Scully's twitter account? I didn't see any ramping for this poll! And long may it continue!
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 7,950
Member is Online
|
Post by cogload on Dec 20, 2021 14:49:43 GMT
If this is a Westminster VI then why are they using a panel which is 16+?
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Dec 20, 2021 15:25:00 GMT
I’ll bet Senedd figures follow. Previously YouGov have been very good at asking 16&17 year olds about the Senedd and not Westminster. Seems like we’re only seeing part of the picture.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,483
|
Post by johng on Dec 20, 2021 15:45:39 GMT
Not much released yet other than Westminster numbers. Looking at that ReformUK figure, I think Yougov's Welsh poll is overstating them just like their UK ones. They couldn't get 7% in the recent by-election in a seat with ideal demographics and with their leader running. Yougov did the same with the pre-Senedd election polls.
The only other thing I have seen is 50% think the Labour Welsh Government are doing well running the NHS, 34% think they are doing badly and 14% don't know.
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 20, 2021 16:08:21 GMT
Has someone frozen Roger Awan-Scully's twitter account? I didn't see any ramping for this poll! And long may it continue! This.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,483
|
Post by johng on Dec 20, 2021 16:26:43 GMT
And long may it continue! This. He hasn't even mentioned it! Never mind ramping.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,483
|
Post by johng on Dec 21, 2021 23:37:56 GMT
ITV Wales/ Yougov have issued corrected figures from that poll as Labour are on 41 and not 39 as previously reported. www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-12-20/tories-predicted-to-lose-eight-welsh-westminster-seats-in-latest-pollTheir change figures are totally wrong though. Their last poll had the Tories on 31 and Plaid on 15 so I have no idea where they got -3 and -4 as the change. I've put what should be the right changes in brackets below. These are Westminster figures and the fieldwork was 13-16/12. Changes on September 2021. Labour - 41% (+4) Conservatives - 26% (-5) Plaid - 13% (-2) REFUK 7% (+1) Lib Dems - 3% (-1) Still no Senedd figures/ tables.
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,766
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Mar 10, 2022 18:03:50 GMT
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 10, 2022 19:47:46 GMT
I saw the first three figures earlier in the week all with N/C and though, hmm exciting(!).
7% for the Lib Dems is encouraging, although potentially a point or two too high.
I’ve said this before on Welsh threads but who the hell is saying they’re voting for Reform?
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,807
|
Post by jamie on Mar 10, 2022 20:23:08 GMT
I’ve said this before on Welsh threads but who the hell as saying they’re voting for Reform? It’s pretty much entirely 2019 Conservative or Brexit Party voters, and iirc the BES found they were ideologically similar to 2019 Brexit Party voters (very socially conservative, economically centrist). The sort of people who will have voted UKIP years ago and are once again unhappy with the Conservative government despite having probably voted for it.
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Mar 10, 2022 22:14:34 GMT
Senedd:
| Cons |
| List |
| Lab | 38% | -2 | 34% | -1 | Con | 24% | +1 | 23% | +1 | PC | 21% | +4 | 20% | +1 | LDm | 6% | +2 | 6% | +3 | RUK | 5% | -2 | 3% | -2 | Grn | 3% | -2 | 4% | -3 | AWA |
|
| 6% | nc | UKIP |
|
| 1% | -1 | Gwlad |
|
| 1% | +1 | Propel |
|
| 0% | nc | Oth | 4% | nc | 1% | nc |
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 10, 2022 23:43:12 GMT
I’ve said this before on Welsh threads but who the hell as saying they’re voting for Reform? It’s pretty much entirely 2019 Conservative or Brexit Party voters, and iirc the BES found they were ideologically similar to 2019 Brexit Party voters (very socially conservative, economically centrist). The sort of people who will have voted UKIP years ago and are once again unhappy with the Conservative government despite having probably voted for it. Fair point, I’m amazed these people still remember/know of Reform though. I know YouGov will prompt but I still feel 6% is too high. Especially when 5% is the absolute outlier at a UK level where the typical figure is 3-4%.
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,444
|
Post by European Lefty on Mar 11, 2022 0:08:14 GMT
It's not impossible that they're doing better in Wales than the UK at large though - I seem to remember that the Brexit Party had a few decent results in the valleys
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 11, 2022 0:23:08 GMT
It's not impossible that they're doing better in Wales than the UK at large though - I seem to remember that the Brexit Party had a few decent results in the valleys Oh they did but that was pre Brexit. They absolutely bombed in last year’s Senedd election. They stood more constituency candidates than UKIP so it’s not a fair comparison with Reform winning 1.5% to UKIPs 0.7%. On the regional ballot where both parties stood a full slate of candidate UKIP won 1.5% to Reform’s 1.0% In the 12 months running up to 2021 they were consistently polling 3-4% in Senedd polls then won 1.5 and 1.0 % in the actual election.
|
|