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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 5, 2021 7:52:23 GMT
Constituency (changes against poll 18-22 April)
Labour 36% (+1%) Conservative 29% (+5%) Plaid Cymru 20% (-4%) Reform UK 4% (no change) Lib Dems 3% (no change) Green 2% (no change) Abolish the Assembly 2% (no change)
List:
Labour 31% Conservative 25% Plaid Cymru 21% UKIP 3% Lib Dems 4% Green 5% Abolish the Assembly 7%
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ian48
Non-Aligned
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Post by ian48 on May 5, 2021 8:20:37 GMT
Finally! Watched GMB for that poll but it didn't appear! So from 2016, it's Lab up 1, Tories up 8, Plaid down 1, Libs down 3. The gap between Labour and the Tories is within a couple of % of 2019 (was 41 v 36 then), so we might see similar seats in play, but I think regional variation will be a bit more. I think Labour will do better in the Valleys than other parts of Wales proportionally. It's been interesting how much time Keir (and Boris a couple of weeks ago) have spent in North Wales. Keir was in Delyn yesterday, which although it went Tory in 2019, should have been OK for Labour from the Assembly result in 2016. Boris was in Barry, S. Wales on Monday, perhaps suggesting they think the fight has moved down there to seats like the Vale of Glamorgan. Will be interesting to see if any other seats down there outside the Valleys are in play.
Talk is that some of Plaid's top targets like Llanelli aren't looking great and it'll be interesting to see how Leanne Wood fares in the Rhondda. With the Libs down that much across Wales, I am not sure they look likely to hold Brecon & Rads or even return any AMs as there vote was derisory across much of Wales before anyway.
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on May 5, 2021 8:23:09 GMT
Though actually I think this is the barometer poll so wouldn't have been the trailed GMB one anyway! A whole early morning wasted for me!
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 5, 2021 9:39:38 GMT
That new Yougov poll has pretty similar numbers to the last Opinium poll. It wouldn't be a great result, but would be a fairly clear victory for us.
I make that Lab - 26, Con - 16, Plaid - 14, AWAP - 3, LD - 1.
So, of the polls released in 2021 so far, we've seen this range of results. Constituency
Labour - 32-40% Conservative - 24-30% Plaid Cymru - 19-24% Lib Dems - 3-5% ReformUK - 3-5% (Not in all polls)
Regional Labour - 29-38% Conservative - 22-28% Plaid Cymru - 19-24% AWAP - 4-9% Green - 3-5%
Lib Dems - 2-5% ReformUK - 1-4% (Not in all polls)
UKIP - 1-4% (Not in all polls)
Finally! Watched GMB for that poll but it didn't appear! So from 2016, it's Lab up 1, Tories up 8, Plaid down 1, Libs down 3.Yeah, it appears we might never see that Survation poll. Maybe they announced it by mistake and didn't do one or they think the data they have is totally wrong. This one is indeed the Yougov one for ITV Wales/ Cardiff University.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 5, 2021 9:53:43 GMT
It's a silly time to do it but here are the Welsh Westminster voting intentions, again changes with 18-21 April
Lab 37% (NC) Con 36% (+3) PC 14% (-4) LD 3% (+1) Ref 4% (+1) Gre 3% (NC) Oth 3% (NC)
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ian48
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Post by ian48 on May 5, 2021 10:09:43 GMT
That new Yougov poll has pretty similar numbers to the last Opinium poll. It wouldn't be a great result, but would be a fairly clear victory for us. I make that Lab - 26, Con - 16, Plaid - 14, AWAP - 3, LD - 1.
So, of the polls released in 2021 so far, we've seen this range of results. Constituency
Labour - 32-40% Conservative - 24-30% Plaid Cymru - 19-24% Lib Dems - 3-5% ReformUK - 3-5% (Not in all polls) Regional Labour - 29-38% Conservative - 22-28% Plaid Cymru - 19-24% AWAP - 4-9% Green - 3-5%
Lib Dems - 2-5% ReformUK - 1-4% (Not in all polls)
UKIP - 1-4% (Not in all polls)
Finally! Watched GMB for that poll but it didn't appear! So from 2016, it's Lab up 1, Tories up 8, Plaid down 1, Libs down 3.Yeah, it appears we might never see that Survation poll. Maybe they announced it by mistake and didn't do one or they think the data they have is totally wrong. This one is indeed the Yougov one for ITV Wales/ Cardiff University. Yeah, I reckon both Labour and the Tories would be happy with a result like that. Labour would obviously still be winning elections and in Government after 22 years looking at 26 by the time of the next election. That's some record and I think they should fend off much of the Plaid assault from the left and strengthen in places like the Valleys. The Tories will always struggle across large parts of Wales, but they would be the clear opposition and would be very pleased to be gaining seats and vote share 11 years into Government at UK-level. Will be interesting to see if they start winning more seats on over 50% of the vote and getting more of a secure base in their stronger areas. Plaid should be the most disappointed if this bears out. They should have been able to capitalise more I think. The Welsh Lib Dems may need to be put on life support, not sure where they could go from here.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 5, 2021 13:19:45 GMT
It's a silly time to do it but here are the Welsh Westminster voting intentions, again changes with 18-21 April Lab 37% (NC) Con 36% (+3) PC 14% (-4) LD 3% (+1) Ref 4% (+1) Gre 3% (NC) Oth 3% (NC) There's a pretty big divergence going on amongst pollsters on Westminster numbers. Most pollsters have Labour doing better against the Tories than in mid-April polls, and I see no reason why Wales should be much different to the rest of GB. Yougov haven't had a GB-wide poll out for a week though so we don't know how their numbers are.
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ian48
Non-Aligned
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Post by ian48 on May 5, 2021 15:13:01 GMT
Savanta ComRes have published now:
Constituency: Labour 36 (-) Conservative 28 (+1) Plaid Cymru 18 (-1) LD 6 (+1) AWAP 3 (-1) Reform UK 3 (-1) Other 6 (+1)
List: Labour 32 (+1) Conservative 25 (+1) Plaid Cymru 19 (-2) AWAP 6 (-2) LD 5 (-) Green 5 (+2) Reform UK 3 (-) Other 6 (+1)
29 April - 4 May
(chg from 23-28 April)
So very similar to the Barometer poll.
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ian48
Non-Aligned
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Post by ian48 on May 5, 2021 15:43:39 GMT
Thinking about it, I wouldn't be surprised if things are a point or two closer when the counts are made. The Tories might touch 30 with Labour 35. I think that over the past few days the sleaze issue has faded a bit and the vast majority of people will have forgotten about the Electoral Commission investigation, to think about jabs and jobs (the line between UK and Welsh Govt here is less clear than in Scotland due to media and social links). Wouldn't be surprised if there is a slight swing back to the Tories given the postal votes landed before the scandal became too deep and things have moved on a bit since. Arguably Labour could have done with all that kicking off a week later so that it was still front and centre for people.
I could be completely wrong of course mind!
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 5, 2021 15:52:25 GMT
Nice to get another unexpected poll. It seems like that Survation/GMB one is not to be.
Here are the poll averages for those polls with their fieldwork in April or May. There are two from Yougov (2-4/5 and 18-21/4), two from Savanta ComRes (29/4-4/5 and 23-28/4), and one from Opinium (9-19/4).
The poll of polls average (and lowest-highest voting intention range) Constituency: Labour - 37% (35-40) Conservative - 28% (24-30) Plaid Cymru - 20% (18-24) Lib Dem - 4% (3-6)
Regional: Labour - 33% (31-38) Conservative - 25% (22-27) Plaid Cymru - 21% (19-23) AWAP - 7% (6-8) (In 4/5 polls) Green - 5% (3-5) Lib Dem - 4% (4-5) ReformUK - 3% (2-3) (In 3/5 polls) UKIP - 3% (2-3) (In 2/5 polls)
In terms of seats on a universal swing: Labour - 28 Conservative - 16 Plaid Cymru - 13 AWAP - 2 Lib Dem - 1
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 5, 2021 21:38:40 GMT
Savanta ComRes have published now: Constituency: Plaid Cymru 18 (-1) List: Plaid Cymru 19 (-2) Frankly appalling for Plaid Cymru when you consider this...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 6, 2021 15:41:08 GMT
"Do you think this building should be knocked down?" "Yes". "Do you think this clown-car being driven by a drink-driver is the best vehicle for this job?" "No".
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 6, 2021 21:53:39 GMT
"Do you think this building should be knocked down?" "Yes". "Do you think this clown-car being driven by a drink-driver is the best vehicle for this job?" "No". I just find it strange. These voters should be ripe for the picking as the SNP has done in Scotland, yet they are going backwards.
Also, ITV Wales haven't done an on-the-day poll as they did in 2016 and their programme on air right now was pre-recorded.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 8, 2021 8:31:52 GMT
Final constituency results were: Labour - 39.9% Conservative - 26.1% Plaid - 20.3% Lib Dem - 4.9% Various Independents - 1.8% REFUK - 1.6% AWAP - 1.6% Green - 1.6%
My April and May poll of polls average had: Labour - 37% (35-40) Conservative - 28% (24-30) Plaid Cymru - 20% (18-24) Lib Dem - 4% (3-6)
I think it is clear that the polls were pretty decent overall and came within the MOE of the final result.
In terms of the election week polls, Yougov and Savanta ComRes both underestimated Labour by four points and overestimated the Conservatives by 3 and 2 respectively. Yougov was bang on for Plaid, but Savanta ComRes underestimated them by two points.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 8, 2021 13:34:02 GMT
And the final regional results were: Labour - 36.2% Conservative - 25.1% Plaid Cymru - 20.7% Green Party - 4.4% Lib Dems 4.3% AWAP - 3.7% UKIP - 1.6% ReformUK - 1.1%
My April and May poll of polls average had: Labour - 33% (31-38) Conservative - 25% (22-27) Plaid Cymru - 21% (19-23) AWAP - 7% (6-8) (In 4/5 polls) Green - 5% (3-5) Lib Dem - 4% (4-5) ReformUK - 3% (2-3) (In 3/5 polls) UKIP - 3% (2-3) (In 2/5 polls)
I think it's also clear that the polls did reasonably well. The Conservatives, Plaid, the Lib Dems and the Greens were pretty much bang on. Labour were slightly underestimated as they were in the constituency polling. The polls also overestimated all of the minor anti-establishment parties which is most notable with AWAP who were outside of the MOE and got a spot on the BBC debate based purely on good polling.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Aug 28, 2021 19:39:55 GMT
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Aug 28, 2021 19:47:58 GMT
Own poll No leading questions then?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 1, 2021 10:11:19 GMT
Public Health Wales are polling on what people expect to happen with polling?
Not sure how I feel about this.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 20, 2021 16:23:54 GMT
Westminster: Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused, and excluding 16 to 17-year-olds Labour 37 (-) Conservative 31 (-5) Plaid Cymru 15 (+1) Lib Dem 4 (+1) Reform 6 (+2) Green 5 (+2) Other 2 (-1) Senedd constituency: Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know or refused to answer Labour 37 (+1) Conservative 27 (-2) Plaid Cymru 19 (-1) Lib Dem 5 (+2) Reform 5 (+1) Green 4 (+2) Other 5 (-2) Senedd List: Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know or refused to answer Labour 33 (+2) Conservative (26 (+1) Plaid Cymru 19 (-2) Lib Dem 4 (-) Reform 4 (+2) Green 6 (+1) UKIP 2 (-1) Abolish 5 (-2) Gwlad 0 (-) Propel 0 (-1) Other 1 (-) YouGov, 1071 adults and conducted between September 13 and 16. Write up here: www.thenational.wales/news/19592701.new-poll-tells-us-public-opinion-wales/
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 20, 2021 16:32:33 GMT
Westminster: Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know, or refused, and excluding 16 to 17-year-olds Labour 37 (-) Conservative 31 (-5) Plaid Cymru 15 (+1) Lib Dem 4 (+1) Reform 6 (+2) Green 5 (+2) Other 2 (-1) Senedd constituency: Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know or refused to answer Labour 37 (+1) Conservative 27 (-2) Plaid Cymru 19 (-1) Lib Dem 5 (+2) Reform 5 (+1) Green 4 (+2) Other 5 (-2) Senedd List: Weighted by likelihood to vote, excluding those who would not vote, don't know or refused to answer Labour 33 (+2) Conservative (26 (+1) Plaid Cymru 19 (-2) Lib Dem 4 (-) Reform 4 (+2) Green 6 (+1) UKIP 2 (-1) Abolish 5 (-2) Gwlad 0 (-) Propel 0 (-1) Other 1 (-) YouGov, 1071 adults and conducted between September 13 and 16. Write up here: www.thenational.wales/news/19592701.new-poll-tells-us-public-opinion-wales/ Surprised Reform are getting so many - any reason for this?
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