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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 21, 2021 14:09:58 GMT
Roger Scully confirms there's a ITV Wales/ Cardiff University Yougov poll coming tomorrow. As usual for him, it's 'quite a poll...' which probably means not too different to the last one... Though, knowing Yougov, it'll probably put the Tories in front. For reference, their last poll from late March was Lab 32, Con 30, PC 23 and LD 5. I do wish Mulder could get Scully into some sort of order. To much of a Scullywag to be controlled by anyone.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 21, 2021 14:18:43 GMT
I do wish Mulder could get Scully into some sort of order. To much of a Scullywag to be controlled by anyone. Ah, but the truth is out there somewhere.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 21, 2021 14:30:46 GMT
I just saw a ballot paper and didnt realise that ATWA have no logo - as they are alphabetically first they are very easy to miss....this wont help them!
Oh dear.... what a pity... never mind.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Apr 21, 2021 14:39:16 GMT
I just saw a ballot paper and didnt realise that ATWA have no logo - as they are alphabetically first they are very easy to miss....this wont help them! Oh dear.... what a pity... never mind. Probably best for the general discussion thread, but I don't it will hurt them much. It might hurt them a little, but there's an advantage to being top of the ballot paper that more than makes up for it IMO. They should have just had the word 'abolish' as their logo or something.
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ian48
Non-Aligned
Posts: 55
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Post by ian48 on Apr 21, 2021 15:01:57 GMT
Roger Scully confirms there's a ITV Wales/ Cardiff University Yougov poll coming tomorrow. As usual for him, it's 'quite a poll...' which probably means not too different to the last one... Though, knowing Yougov, it'll probably put the Tories in front. For reference, their last poll from late March was Lab 32, Con 30, PC 23 and LD 5. It'll be interesting to see what happens with this poll tomorrow, but you're probably right about little change. The one yesterday looked a little low for Plaid for me and a little too high for Labour. While it might be in line with national polling, this is a Senedd election and I think a small but solid number of voters will vote for Plaid where they would vote Labour in a UK election. Drakeford's profile has risen but he is no Carwyn Jones and doesn't inspire massive amounts of confidence. I think things could really differ regionally. The Tories have really played on the 'Down with Cardiff' narrative in North Wales, the 'Get the M4 fixed' narrative in Newport and the 'Defend Rural Wales' narrative in Mid Wales. I think Labour support might hold OK in the valleys but be possibly patchy elsewhere. I think the Lib Dems might have a wipeout and lose their Brecon seat too.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Apr 21, 2021 16:16:18 GMT
It'll be interesting to see what happens with this poll tomorrow, but you're probably right about little change. The one yesterday looked a little low for Plaid for me and a little too high for Labour. While it might be in line with national polling, this is a Senedd election and I think a small but solid number of voters will vote for Plaid where they would vote Labour in a UK election. Drakeford's profile has risen but he is no Carwyn Jones and doesn't inspire massive amounts of confidence. I think things could really differ regionally. The Tories have really played on the 'Down with Cardiff' narrative in North Wales, the 'Get the M4 fixed' narrative in Newport and the 'Defend Rural Wales' narrative in Mid Wales. I think Labour support might hold OK in the valleys but be possibly patchy elsewhere. I think the Lib Dems might have a wipeout and lose their Brecon seat too. Lots in the poll looked right yesterday, but the numbers did seem a little off*. I guess we'll have to see tomorrow if Yougov shows Labour pulling ahead a little closer to Opinium's numbers. *As said above, though, we only really have Yougov as a baseline in Wales and it's very possible that they are wrong.
Lots of parties try to give different messages to different voters. I'm not sure how successful the Tories will be with that. I haven't received a single piece of literature from them (so far 2x Labour + Plaid and 1x Green, AWAP and UKIP) and have only seen a couple of Facebook ads. Now I do live in a pretty safe Labour seat, but it's also one with a pretty hefty Tory vote so they should really be going after my list vote.
A Lib Dem wipeout is looking possible. I think the Tories are favoured by some margin in B&R and, with the collapse of the LD vote in Ceredigion and Montgomeryshire, there's no guarantee they'll get a seat on the list in that region. They could hang on of course winning either B&R or a list seat in MWW and I know in Cardiff Central they are also doing a fair bit of campaigning, but I am leaning against that at the moment.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 22, 2021 7:15:41 GMT
Constituency: Labour: 35% (+3) Conservatives: 24% (-6) Plaid Cymru: 24% (+1) Reform UK: 4% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 3% (-2) Greens: 3% (+1) Abolish the Assembly: 3% (no change) Others: 3% (+1) Three seats to change hands: Vale of Glam gained by Conservatives, Llanelli and Blaenau Gwent gained by PC (laughs) Regional: Labour: 33% (+2) Plaid Cymru: 23% (+1) Conservatives: 22% (-6) Abolish the Assembly: 7% (no change) Greens: 5% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 4% (no change) Others: 6% (+2) Regional seat forecast: North Wales: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 Abolish the Assembly Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid From these figures we generate the following overall projected result for the Senedd: Labour: 26 seats (24 constituency, 2 regional) Plaid Cymru: 17 seats (8 constituency, 9 regional) Conservatives: 14 seats (7 constituency, 7 regional) Abolish the Assembly: 2 seats (2 regional) Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (1 constituency) Detail: www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-04-22/exclusive-poll-shows-labour-can-hold-red-wall-but-still-needs-to-strike-deal-in-seneddUsual health warnings about one poll etc and applying a universal swing, if true this would mean the Conservatives standing still in North Wales.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 22, 2021 8:17:21 GMT
Looks about right - except that Plaid wont win BG. Not convinced about Llanelli either.
But I am going to stick my neck out and say they will win Caerffili instead.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Apr 22, 2021 11:45:22 GMT
It's interesting to see Yougov moving away from their previous poll results to something a little closer to Opinium's. Though there is a big difference in how they think the parties will do.
Universal swing is pretty useless when looking at exact seats as we all know situations in each seat vary. You've already spoken about Plaid above, and then there's AWAP on the list. The likelihood they gain a seat in MWW and not SWE is remote imo.
That's a bit more like it for Labour as well. There have now been two polls on the trot now which are pretty reasonable for Labour and have the Tories quite a bit behind. There's also no sign of AWAP gaining the seven seats UKIP did in 2016.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Apr 22, 2021 13:52:27 GMT
Here's a poll of poll average for the polls released this year. Constituency
Labour - 36% Conservative - 27% Plaid Cymru - 23% Lib Dem - 4% Other - 11%
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| Yougov 18-21/4
| Opinium 9-19/4
| Yougov 16-19/3
| Yougov 19-22/2 | ICM 28/1-21/2
| Yougov 11-14/1
| Labour | 35% | 40% | 32% | 33% | 39% | 34%
| Conservative | 24% | 30% | 30% | 28% | 24% | 26%
| Plaid Cymru
| 24% | 19% | 23% | 22% | 24% | 26%
| Lib Dem
| 3% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4%
| Other (Prompted party %s)
| 13% (ReformUK 4%) (Green 3%,) (AWAP 3%)
| 7% (Didn't prompt for any others)
| 9% (ReformUK 3%) (AWAP 3%) (Green 2%) (UKIP 0%)
| 12% (ReformUK 4%) (Green 4%) (AWAP 3%) (UKIP 1%)
| 8% (UKIP 2%) (Green 1%)
| 15% (Green 6%) (ReformUK 5%)
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Regional
Labour - 33% Conservative - 25% Plaid Cymru - 22% AWAP - 7%* Lib Dem - 4%
Green - 4%
ReformUK - 3%**
UKIP - 2%**
Other - 4% (meaningless)
* Not included in one poll. ** Not included in more than one poll.
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| Yougov 18-21/4
| Opinium 9-19/4
| Yougov 16-19/3
| Yougov 19-22/2 | ICM 28/1-21/2
| Yougov 11-14/1
| Labour | 33% | 38% | 31% | 29% | 37% | 30%
| Conservative | 22% | 27% | 28% | 25% | 22% | 25%
| Plaid Cymru
| 23% | 19% | 22% | 24% | 22% | 23%
| Lib Dem
| 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4%
| AWAP
| 7%
| (Didn't prompt)
| 7%
| 9%
| 4%
| 7%
| ReformUK
| 2%
| (Didn't prompt)
| 1%
| 3%
| (Didn't prompt)
| 4%
| Green
| 5%
| 5%
| 3%
| 5%
| 3%
| 5%
| UKIP
| (Didn't prompt)
| 2%
| 1%
| 2%
| 4%
| (Didn't prompt)
| Other
| 6%
| 5%
| 2%
| 3%
| 6%
| 1%
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Seats Projection
Labour - 27 Conservative - 15 Plaid Cymru - 15 AWAP - 2 Lib Dem - 1
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Post by robert1 on Apr 29, 2021 13:48:36 GMT
Senedd race on a knife edge with just a week until voters head to polls – Savanta ComRes • Headline Independence Voting Intention: No 68%; Yes 32% • Headline Senedd Constituency Voting Intention: LAB 36%; CON 27%; PC 19%; LD 5%; AWAP 4%; Reform UK 4%; Other 5% • Headline Senedd List Voting Intention: LAB 31%; CON 24%; PC 21%; AWAP 8%; LD 5%; Green 3%; Reform UK 3%; UKIP 2%; Other 3%
Fieldwork 23rd-28th April
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Apr 29, 2021 14:14:19 GMT
Senedd race on a knife edge with just a week until voters head to polls – Savanta ComRes • Headline Independence Voting Intention: No 68%; Yes 32% • Headline Senedd Constituency Voting Intention: LAB 36%; CON 27%; PC 19%; LD 5%; AWAP 4%; Reform UK 4%; Other 5% • Headline Senedd List Voting Intention: LAB 31%; CON 24%; PC 21%; AWAP 8%; LD 5%; Green 3%; Reform UK 3%; UKIP 2%; Other 3%
Fieldwork 23rd-28th April
Nice to see yet another poll!
This is the first public SavantaComRes poll for a Senedd election. However, the figures look pretty reasonable. If you compare to my post above on the average of polls this year, Labour and the Cons are about on the money and Plaid a little lower. For Plaid, it's a little strange that this poll and Opinium have them a fair bit behind the Tories whilst Yougov and ICM have them on about the same.
We'd see this on election day on a universal swing.
LAB - 26 (-3) CON - 15 (+4) PC - 15 (+3) AWAP - 3 (New) Lib Dem - 1 (-)
Independence figures (Compared to their Feb poll). However, I think that poll was clearly a bit of an outlier and this brings it a bit closer to other pollsters.
Yes - 32 (-7)
No - 68 (+7)
I think Paul might be on the money here. On these numbers, a Lab-Plaid coalition is quite likely, but without any referendum. If Labour can get a seat or two more, a minority government is much more likely. Support in poll after poll seems to be solidifying, but not quite on his number. It's more between a quarter and a third.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 3, 2021 16:52:20 GMT
Survation poll incoming on behalf of Good Morning Britain.
We are being spoiled this time around compared to 2016. That year saw only Yougov and ICM poll whilst this year we've had Yougov, ICM, Savanta, Opinium and now Survation.
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Post by Penddu on May 4, 2021 8:32:43 GMT
Survation
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 4, 2021 9:17:11 GMT
Survation Nothing out yet. Fieldwork dates are a bit disappointing if they follow the other polls out today. Scotland's poll was done 23-26/4 and Hartlepool's was done 23-29/4. The poll released last week from Savanta ComRes was done 23-28/4.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 4, 2021 15:03:52 GMT
What's the Welsh for GroKo? Now that would be funny to see.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 4, 2021 15:41:53 GMT
I heard there was an ITV poll (I assume their usual 'Barometer' poll with Cardiff Uni) on Wednesday - but it might be a GMB one I guess?
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Post by BossMan on May 4, 2021 15:49:52 GMT
What's the Welsh for GroKo? Now that would be funny to see. If Google Translate is anything to go by, I'd say "ClymFawr" (Clymblaid Fawr).
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on May 4, 2021 15:51:20 GMT
I heard there was an ITV poll (I assume their usual 'Barometer' poll with Cardiff Uni) on Wednesday - but it might be a GMB one I guess? Survation one is going to be on tomorrow's GMB so we'll either find out the results tonight or then. Data is probably quite old though.
On ITV, I think they could possibly have two polls out if it's like 2016. One tomorrow as an eve-of-poll poll. Then they also have a Wales Decides programme on Thursday night and will possibly have an on the day poll like last time too.
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Post by Penddu on May 4, 2021 16:18:07 GMT
I heard there was an ITV poll (I assume their usual 'Barometer' poll with Cardiff Uni) on Wednesday - but it might be a GMB one I guess? Survation one is going to be on tomorrow's GMB so we'll either find out the results tonight or then. Data is probably quite old though.
On ITV, I think they could possibly have two polls out if it's like 2016. One tomorrow as an eve-of-poll poll. Then they also have a Wales Decides programme on Thursday night and will possibly have an on the day poll like last time too. Poll porn...😁
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