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Post by Penddu on Dec 29, 2020 8:39:18 GMT
Not a Twitter voodoo poll. Seems to be a poll by Yougov of its panel in Wales - maybe they do these to validate how representative its panel is???
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 29, 2020 8:56:35 GMT
Not a Twitter voodoo poll. Seems to be a poll by Yougov of its panel in Wales - maybe they do these to validate how representative its panel is??? yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/explore/place/WalesNot listed on their website. Last indy poll in November.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,233
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 29, 2020 13:42:47 GMT
Not a Twitter voodoo poll. Seems to be a poll by Yougov of its panel in Wales - maybe they do these to validate how representative its panel is??? For me, Panel polls are not the best as they are made up of people willing to remain engaged, which lacks a proper snapshot effect. Those in a panel are to some degree self-selecting, likely to be more politically engaged and partial. I doubt the YouGov results on Independence are properly indicative of the real opinion of the wider Welsh electorate.
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 29, 2020 14:16:41 GMT
I cant confirm the details, but I have just been told by a reliable source that the latest Yougov polling has support for Welsh independence now at 39% (up from 33%). That is some momentum.... So it seems to be a Yougov online poll on Welsh independence - results: Stay in Uk: 41% Independence: 37% Not Sure: 21% That is pretty seismic.... My first reaction to this is that it must be fake news.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,525
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Post by john07 on Dec 29, 2020 14:55:04 GMT
So it seems to be a Yougov online poll on Welsh independence - results: Stay in Uk: 41% Independence: 37% Not Sure: 21% That is pretty seismic.... My first reaction to this is that it must be fake news. Sounds like a release of ‘canvas returns’ that the Liberals/Lib Dems were known to indulge in back in the day?
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Post by Penddu on Dec 29, 2020 16:45:57 GMT
Well the next 'official' polling on Welsh Independence is due in January, so lets wait and see.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Jan 3, 2021 13:40:36 GMT
There is clearly a direction of travel, its interesting that I am now seeing Yes Cymru posters appearing on billboards.... Clearly the expanded membership has given them money to expand the campaigning in a most direct way.
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kefin
Non-Aligned
Posts: 258
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Post by kefin on Jan 4, 2021 17:38:33 GMT
There is clearly a direction of travel, its interesting that I am now seeing Yes Cymru posters appearing on billboards.... Clearly the expanded membership has given them money to expand the campaigning in a most direct way. Rather than littering and defacing our country by fly posting their pathetic little stickers on public and private property all over the place? Well its an improvement in manners and respect for others property if nothing else.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 16, 2021 13:10:30 GMT
Roger Awan-Scully has at long last learned the uses of irony
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Post by Penddu on Jan 16, 2021 15:35:22 GMT
Let the ramping begin.....
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 16, 2021 15:42:26 GMT
Roger Awan-Scully has at long last learned the uses of irony 110% of Welsh voters believe that Neil Kinnock should finally sue Joe Biden for plagiarism.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,839
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Post by jamie on Jan 16, 2021 15:54:03 GMT
Tosser
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jan 18, 2021 15:10:17 GMT
So when is this poll coming out? I am really struggling to contain the excitement.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jan 18, 2021 15:21:24 GMT
Some data already out.
For all the talk by a few on here and the same few loud voices on Twitter, there is overwhelming support for the current Welsh government lockdown.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jan 18, 2021 15:41:53 GMT
Some data already out. For all the talk by a few on here and the same few loud voices on Twitter, there is overwhelming support for the current Welsh government lockdown.
FFS. Presumably the next poll will show overwhelming support for Drakeford deliberately holding back the vaccine from some people who will almost certainly die as a result?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 18, 2021 22:51:42 GMT
Senedd constituency
Labour: 34% (-4) Conservatives: 26% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+2) Greens: 6% (+3) Reform UK: 5% (no change on Brexit Party last time) Liberal Democrats: 4% (+1) Others: 4% (no change)
Senedd list:
Labour: 30% (-3) Conservatives: 25% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 23% (+3) Abolish the Assembly: 7% (no change) Greens: 5% (+1) Reform UK: 4% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 4% (no change) Others: 1% (-2)
Westminster
Labour: 36% (-7) Conservatives: 33% (+1) Plaid Cymru: 17% (+4) Reform UK: 5% (no change) Greens: 4% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 3% (no change) Others: 2% (no change)
YouGov. 1,018 Welsh adults aged 16+ and was carried out online by YouGov from 11-14 January 2021. Figures for Westminster voting intention include only those respondents aged 18 and over.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,264
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 19, 2021 0:28:53 GMT
Looks like a dodgy sample there.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Jan 19, 2021 0:46:28 GMT
Pretty poor result for Labour considering the UK-wide polling position. Could be right, but then it could be a bit of a dodgy sample. There aren't too many Welsh polls to compare of course. The other thing to remember is that the last poll in November was very good for Labour. It's certainly good for Plaid and the Greens - though I think a fairly large portion of the Green constituency vote will actually go for Labour on election day.
On a uniform swing this would equal: Labour - 26 seats (24 constituency, 2 regional) (-3 on 2016) Conservatives - 16 seats (8 constituency, 8 regional) (+5) Plaid Cymru - 15 seats (7 constituency, 8 regional) (+3) Abolish the Assembly - 2 seats (2 regional) (New) Liberal Democrats - 1 seat (1 constituency) (-)
blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2021/01/18/the-january-welsh-political-barometer-poll-2/
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Post by Penddu on Jan 19, 2021 2:42:43 GMT
feels about right for Senedd but not so much for Westminster.
The smaller party race looks interesteing on the list. The Gammon vote is split between two parties which will cost them a few seats - But I expect Farage's publicity machine to increase Reform share and think they will overtake Abolish vote.
The Muesli vote is also split between Greens & LDs. I expect Greens to increase their vote - due to 16-17 year olds voting - which will put them in contention for the 4th party seats.
But overall, it looks like a Labour Plaid coalition. In which case expect a Plaid FM - just not neccesarily Adam Price.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 19, 2021 8:48:17 GMT
But overall, it looks like a Labour Plaid coalition. In which case expect a Plaid FM - just not neccesarily Adam Price. If Plaid finish in third, ten seats behind Labour how exactly will there be a Plaid FM? I know Adam Price saying “I’ll be FM plays” well with their vote (obviously) but Labour aren’t just going to say, sure why not you have a go.
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