johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Nov 1, 2020 1:02:29 GMT
No, not according to the opinion polls anyway. The last Yougov poll had.
Support for Independence (Yes / No) More yes than no:
Plaid Cymru - 45 / 33 Labour - 39 / 37
More no than yes: Lib Dem - 25 / 52 Conservative - 8 / 86
The real interesting detail to me is the sheer number of 'don't knows' among Labour and Plaid supporters (21% each of their supporters). Tory voters seem a lot clearer on being against it.
That surprises me What's so surprising about it?
A fairly significant number of Scottish Labour voters support independence as well.
Surveys and polls consistently find the counties with the highest proportion of people describing themselves as 'Welsh only' are in the South Wales Valleys. Which party is strongest there? Labour of course.
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Post by Penddu on Nov 2, 2020 17:15:10 GMT
Support for Welsh Independence is on a roll at the moment with the independence movement YesCymru having a surge in membership, largely on the back of Conservative's dismisive and condescending attitudes towards Wales.
So yes Scully could be recording highest pro-independence figures - but my guess will be personal ratings for Mark Drakeford - who has been seen as a safe and reassuring set of hands - and also benefitting from anti-conservative backlash.
Soon find out!
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Post by MeirionGwril on Nov 2, 2020 21:29:43 GMT
I think it'll be highest level of annoyance that his damn poll is still not published...!
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carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 48,266
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 2, 2020 23:05:00 GMT
Support for Welsh Independence is on a roll at the moment with the independence movement YesCymru having a surge in membership, largely on the back of Conservative's dismisive and condescending attitudes towards Wales. So yes Scully could be recording highest pro-independence figures - but my guess will be personal ratings for Mark Drakeford - who has been seen as a safe and reassuring set of hands - and also benefitting from anti-conservative backlash. Soon find out! LOL. Most of us would vote to do away with the nonense assembly altogether.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,232
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 2, 2020 23:41:50 GMT
I think it'll be highest level of annoyance that his damn poll is still not published...! If he said next Monday the other day, that would mean the 9th, as today would be this Monday. The joys of the English language.
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Post by Penddu on Nov 3, 2020 7:34:56 GMT
Now published. ATWA on 7% was the highest he referred to. Not a surprise as there is around 12% combined gammon vote - just depends who they stand behind. Full results here: Blog
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Post by MeirionGwril on Nov 3, 2020 8:17:11 GMT
Damp squid (I know it should be squib, but squid is so much more picturesque)...
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Post by Penddu on Nov 3, 2020 8:25:04 GMT
Damp squid (I know it should be squib, but squid is so much more picturesque)... I would have thought that all squids were damp...at the very least...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 3, 2020 9:53:13 GMT
Ha.
Welsh Nationalist Twitter is going to have a melt down. They’d actually convinced themselves that it was independence which was at an all time high.
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Post by MeirionGwril on Nov 3, 2020 10:20:07 GMT
Ha. Welsh Nationalist Twitter is going to have a melt down. They’d actually convinced themselves that it was independence which was at an all time high. Ha - you're carrots [yn Gymraeg - look it up]
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 3, 2020 10:39:08 GMT
Ha. Welsh Nationalist Twitter is going to have a melt down. They’d actually convinced themselves that it was independence which was at an all time high. Ha - you're carrots [yn Gymraeg - look it up] You know I'm Welsh right so I don't need to look up that playground insult :-p Last week when Scully tweeted that something was at an all-time high, the YesCymru lot on Twitter did automatically assume and convince themselves it was independence. Just look at the responses to this:
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 3, 2020 10:43:15 GMT
A question for some of us on this forum:
In this poll Brxit scored 5% on the list which is up 1 but obviously within the margin of error, and I get that people can split their votes and in this poll, they're asked three questions (Westminster, Senedd constituency then Senedd list) so by the time of the third question they may be more open to splitting/switching answers etc, but how are the Brexit Party *still* polling 5% when across the UK they get 2-3% in YouGov and don't register with other pollsters.
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Post by Penddu on Nov 3, 2020 11:18:45 GMT
A question for some of us on this forum: In this poll Brxit scored 5% on the list which is up 1 but obviously within the margin of error, and I get that people can split their votes and in this poll, they're asked three questions (Westminster, Senedd constituency then Senedd list) so by the time of the third question they may be more open to splitting/switching answers etc, but how are the Brexit Party *still* polling 5% when across the UK they get 2-3% in YouGov and don't register with other pollsters. I assume it is because their vote actually counts in a Welsh election but doesnt in a UK election (due to AMS as opposed to FPTP)
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Post by Penddu on Nov 3, 2020 11:21:53 GMT
Ha. Welsh Nationalist Twitter is going to have a melt down. They’d actually convinced themselves that it was independence which was at an all time high. The response to the independence question was 23% - which matches the highest reported in previous survey so not actually wrong. I think there will be more on this issue over next few days...
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Nov 3, 2020 11:22:05 GMT
A question for some of us on this forum: In this poll Brxit scored 5% on the list which is up 1 but obviously within the margin of error, and I get that people can split their votes and in this poll, they're asked three questions (Westminster, Senedd constituency then Senedd list) so by the time of the third question they may be more open to splitting/switching answers etc, but how are the Brexit Party *still* polling 5% when across the UK they get 2-3% in YouGov and don't register with other pollsters. I assume it is because their vote actually counts in a Welsh election but doesnt in a UK election (due to AMS as opposed to FPTP) Do you think the average voter knows that? Genuine question.
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Post by Penddu on Nov 3, 2020 11:24:16 GMT
I think their supporters know that they have an elected rep...but probably dont understand why...
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,491
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Post by johng on Nov 6, 2020 13:25:26 GMT
I assume it is because their vote actually counts in a Welsh election but doesnt in a UK election (due to AMS as opposed to FPTP) Do you think the average voter knows that? Genuine question. I think the percentage of the population that understand the AMS system* is very small - in single percentage figures. A fair number of people see it as a type of second preference. If they did understand it, we'd see a lot more vote splitting than we do. A Labour vote on the list in South Wales Central is a wasted vote.
Whether Abolish the Assembly or Brexit Party get seats depends on how their vote falls. I'd expect that type of party to get about five though.
*At the end of the day, it's a garbage system and we should get rid of it. Multi-member FPTP or STV (if done right) would be better. If we have to keep additional members, get rid of the second ballot and just link it to a regional total for each party on the constituency ballot.
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Post by Penddu on Nov 11, 2020 4:15:27 GMT
Do you think the average voter knows that? Genuine question. I think the percentage of the population that understand the AMS system* is very small - in single percentage figures. A fair number of people see it as a type of second preference. If they did understand it, we'd see a lot more vote splitting than we do. A Labour vote on the list in South Wales Central is a wasted vote.
Whether Abolish the Assembly or Brexit Party get seats depends on how their vote falls. I'd expect that type of party to get about five though.
*At the end of the day, it's a garbage system and we should get rid of it. Multi-member FPTP or STV (if done right) would be better. If we have to keep additional members, get rid of the second ballot and just link it to a regional total for each party on the constituency ballot.
Multi member FPTP exagerates non-proportionality and is possibly the most undemocratic form of democracy since Donald Trump.
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Post by Penddu on Nov 20, 2020 14:03:14 GMT
Latest Yougov polling has indeprndence on 33% (highest ever) and support for Devomax (whatever that is) at 58%.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,752
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Nov 20, 2020 20:24:30 GMT
Latest Yougov polling has indeprndence on 33% (highest ever) and support for Devomax (whatever that is) at 58%. I have always thought that "Devo Max" was in effect independence, without the formal separation, although that said I quite like the way that Bob Hale (from Horrible Histories described it as "only having one calorie")
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