|
|
Post by andrewp on Nov 28, 2020 17:46:03 GMT
I don’t think a concerted Labour effort in West Suffolk would be a great use of their resources.A Johnson chicken run was mentioned before the last election but was never going to happen. Labour could well get closer in Uxbridge and S Ruislip next time but the odds must be that Boris Johnson will not be a candidate in any constituency. They did come close in 1997? (<2,000). Though it is hard to tell what the majority was in '92 as it looks like it was then part of Bury St E, where they came even closer. They are of course now a very distant second like in Sherwood, but it would be interesting to see. Yes, about 1,800 in 1997 which was remarkable. It’s now the Conservatives 37th safest seat and still considerably safer than Sherwood. Difficult for Labour to ‘target’ Hancock when they are largely in agreement with his policies, unlike the situation on Brexit which the Lib Dem’s capitalised on against Raab in Esher. |
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591 
|
Post by bsjmcr on Nov 28, 2020 17:55:19 GMT
They did come close in 1997? (<2,000). Though it is hard to tell what the majority was in '92 as it looks like it was then part of Bury St E, where they came even closer. They are of course now a very distant second like in Sherwood, but it would be interesting to see. Yes, about 1,800 in 1997 which was remarkable. It’s now the Conservatives 37th safest seat and still considerably safer than Sherwood. Difficult for Labour to ‘target’ Hancock when they are largely in agreement with his policies, unlike the situation on Brexit which the Lib Dem’s capitalised on against Raab in Esher. That I concede (though Labour is still undecided on the new Tiers as of now), but surely could target based on his general 'performance' as HS. I've touted this on the West Suffolk thread now for anyone who knows more about the local area, and to prevent going further off topic here! And as for Raab I also recall some issues over his personality and conduct, and particularly the issue with the American woman who ran way to avoid being investigated here after a tragic accident. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2020 18:54:09 GMT
Must be questioned whether Reading East was won by 'Corbynism' as its Labour standard-bearer is hardly a strong Corbynite - in the Labour leadership election he endorsed Lisa Nandy, who was the choice of diehard anti-Corbyn members. Reading has been on a trend to Labour in recent years unconnected to the identity of the Labour leader. And in any case did you miss the "almost all"? How different is Reading West compared to East for slippery Sharma to have held on for so long? Or does he have a significant personal vote. It's just that I find him to be one of the weakest performers at the No. 10 briefings and interviews, elusive and evasive. Also is there any talk (a bit early I know) of a more concerted Labour effort in West Suffolk for the next election, like the Lib Dems tried (and failed) in Esher last time. Uxbridge goes without saying... could Johnson do a chicken run? West is less ethnically diverse and includes more areas from further outside Reading - if you removed Theale and Pangbourne and added a town centre ward from east, Reading would probably have two Labour seats. It has to be said, when I canvassed West in 2019, I found that lots of areas which felt like should be Labour vote sinks had far less enthusiasm even if not many voters were actually threatening to switch. Hopefully post-Corbyn we can get some of that back. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 30, 2020 21:02:50 GMT
Must be questioned whether Reading East was won by 'Corbynism' as its Labour standard-bearer is hardly a strong Corbynite - in the Labour leadership election he endorsed Lisa Nandy, who was the choice of diehard anti-Corbyn members. Reading has been on a trend to Labour in recent years unconnected to the identity of the Labour leader. And in any case did you miss the "almost all"? How different is Reading West compared to East for slippery Sharma to have held on for so long? Or does he have a significant personal vote. It's just that I find him to be one of the weakest performers at the No. 10 briefings and interviews, elusive and evasive. Also is there any talk (a bit early I know) of a more concerted Labour effort in West Suffolk for the next election, like the Lib Dems tried (and failed) in Esher last time. Uxbridge goes without saying... could Johnson do a chicken run? Back to Sherwood - despite being a student at UoN I have only been here once, to the forest itself. Hucknall is simply known as 'where the tram goes' and nothing else - is it gentrifying or generally significantly more well-off than the deprived Nottingham City wards next to it? (e.g. Bulwell...). The result here is quite remarkable, where would Labour even start to win it back (then again the Tories must have felt the same in '97 but they got there in the end). The MP here is also totally unknown to me, which must be a good thing as the members for Mansfield, and Bassetlaw, on the other hand, I feel have had many foot-in-mouth moments during their appearances particularly on the FSM saga - do they really think their comments on 'nationalising children' would endear to some of the more deprived areas there, which could just as easily swing against them next time? Or are they strongly skilled working class areas that despise people on benefits and where such comments might have gone down well? It would also be interesting to see how much of the new 2019 Tory vote was simply 'lent' to them to Get Brexit Done, and how much of it is a real shift. West is full of white working class people in ex council estates who love Brexit and liked Mar'n Salter,to simplify it. East is almost the polar opposite, Lower Earley in Wokingham is the only similar area demographically east of the Town Centre compared to the estates out east. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 30, 2020 21:04:50 GMT
How different is Reading West compared to East for slippery Sharma to have held on for so long? Or does he have a significant personal vote. It's just that I find him to be one of the weakest performers at the No. 10 briefings and interviews, elusive and evasive. Also is there any talk (a bit early I know) of a more concerted Labour effort in West Suffolk for the next election, like the Lib Dems tried (and failed) in Esher last time. Uxbridge goes without saying... could Johnson do a chicken run? Back to Sherwood - despite being a student at UoN I have only been here once, to the forest itself. Hucknall is simply known as 'where the tram goes' and nothing else - is it gentrifying or generally significantly more well-off than the deprived Nottingham City wards next to it? (e.g. Bulwell...). The result here is quite remarkable, where would Labour even start to win it back (then again the Tories must have felt the same in '97 but they got there in the end). The MP here is also totally unknown to me, which must be a good thing as the members for Mansfield, and Bassetlaw, on the other hand, I feel have had many foot-in-mouth moments during their appearances particularly on the FSM saga - do they really think their comments on 'nationalising children' would endear to some of the more deprived areas there, which could just as easily swing against them next time? Or are they strongly skilled working class areas that despise people on benefits and where such comments might have gone down well? It would also be interesting to see how much of the new 2019 Tory vote was simply 'lent' to them to Get Brexit Done, and how much of it is a real shift. Reading West is not as affluent as Reading East nor does it contain a significant student population, which is why the Conservatives won it in 2010 but not 2005. It also has fewer graduates, although Reading West is slowly heading in the same direction which is why the pro-Conservative swing in Reading West was only 1.3%, and the Conservative vote actually fell by 0.5%. Like Wycombe, Reading West is becoming more ethnically diverse and more mixed over time. It's more that there are a few wards that are solidly minority majority and Labour supporting, surrounded by WWC estates and posh traditional Tory areas like the Tilehurst wards in West Berks. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Nov 30, 2020 21:06:32 GMT
Must be questioned whether Reading East was won by 'Corbynism' as its Labour standard-bearer is hardly a strong Corbynite - in the Labour leadership election he endorsed Lisa Nandy, who was the choice of diehard anti-Corbyn members. Reading has been on a trend to Labour in recent years unconnected to the identity of the Labour leader. And in any case did you miss the "almost all"? He actually nominated Thornberry in the first round and tried to pick Nandy as a way to try and avoid the 2 big factional candidates. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2020 14:34:20 GMT
Must be questioned whether Reading East was won by 'Corbynism' as its Labour standard-bearer is hardly a strong Corbynite - in the Labour leadership election he endorsed Lisa Nandy, who was the choice of diehard anti-Corbyn members. Reading has been on a trend to Labour in recent years unconnected to the identity of the Labour leader. And in any case did you miss the "almost all"? How different is Reading West compared to East for slippery Sharma to have held on for so long? Or does he have a significant personal vote. It's just that I find him to be one of the weakest performers at the No. 10 briefings and interviews, elusive and evasive. Also is there any talk (a bit early I know) of a more concerted Labour effort in West Suffolk for the next election, like the Lib Dems tried (and failed) in Esher last time. Uxbridge goes without saying... could Johnson do a chicken run? Back to Sherwood - despite being a student at UoN I have only been here once, to the forest itself. Hucknall is simply known as 'where the tram goes' and nothing else - is it gentrifying or generally significantly more well-off than the deprived Nottingham City wards next to it? (e.g. Bulwell...). The result here is quite remarkable, where would Labour even start to win it back (then again the Tories must have felt the same in '97 but they got there in the end). The MP here is also totally unknown to me, which must be a good thing as the members for Mansfield, and Bassetlaw, on the other hand, I feel have had many foot-in-mouth moments during their appearances particularly on the FSM saga - do they really think their comments on 'nationalising children' would endear to some of the more deprived areas there, which could just as easily swing against them next time? Or are they strongly skilled working class areas that despise people on benefits and where such comments might have gone down well? It would also be interesting to see how much of the new 2019 Tory vote was simply 'lent' to them to Get Brexit Done, and how much of it is a real shift. Late response but, one reason why you don’t hear much from this seat’s MP is because he’s the Chief Whip. Like most previous holders of that office he generally stays out of the media. His most high-profile act was probably suspending the whip from the 21 rebels in September ‘19. |
|
|
|
Post by loderingo on Dec 26, 2020 14:58:15 GMT
Reading West is not as affluent as Reading East nor does it contain a significant student population, which is why the Conservatives won it in 2010 but not 2005. It also has fewer graduates, although Reading West is slowly heading in the same direction which is why the pro-Conservative swing in Reading West was only 1.3%, and the Conservative vote actually fell by 0.5%. Like Wycombe, Reading West is becoming more ethnically diverse and more mixed over time. It's more that there are a few wards that are solidly minority majority and Labour supporting, surrounded by WWC estates and posh traditional Tory areas like the Tilehurst wards in West Berks. If Berkshire gets a 9th seat in the boundary review, then some of Sharma's seat will likely move into a new safe "Mid Berkshire". If so I would expect him to follow |
|
|
|
Sherwood
Dec 26, 2020 17:07:23 GMT
via mobile
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Dec 26, 2020 17:07:23 GMT
It's more that there are a few wards that are solidly minority majority and Labour supporting, surrounded by WWC estates and posh traditional Tory areas like the Tilehurst wards in West Berks. If Berkshire gets a 9th seat in the boundary review, then some of Sharma's seat will likely move into a new safe "Mid Berkshire". If so I would expect him to follow I agree that this will probably happen, but I prefer the Reading West - Central - South East arrangement as it will lead to 2 perpetually marginal constituencies and one safe seat as opposed to 2 swing seats and a safe seat. |
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
|
Post by bsjmcr on Dec 27, 2020 20:48:24 GMT
If Berkshire gets a 9th seat in the boundary review, then some of Sharma's seat will likely move into a new safe "Mid Berkshire". If so I would expect him to follow I agree that this will probably happen, but I prefer the Reading West - Central - South East arrangement as it will lead to 2 perpetually marginal constituencies and one safe seat as opposed to 2 swing seats and a safe seat.Sorry to appear naive, how are the two scenarios different? Are swing seats not marginal? |
|
|
|
Post by edgbaston on Dec 27, 2020 21:11:51 GMT
If Berkshire gets a 9th seat in the boundary review, then some of Sharma's seat will likely move into a new safe "Mid Berkshire". If so I would expect him to follow I agree that this will probably happen, but I prefer the Reading West - Central - South East arrangement as it will lead to 2 perpetually marginal constituencies and one safe seat as opposed to 2 swing seats and a safe seat Surely the obvious scenario is reading west expands into Newbury and becomes safe Tory, Reading central is created, safe labour, taken by Matt Rodda, Reading east expands into Maidenhead and Wokingham, a swing seat, Wokingham expands into Bracknell, Bracknell into Windsor, and Windsor into a bit of east Slough and Surrey. |
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
|
Post by bsjmcr on Dec 27, 2020 21:27:57 GMT
I agree that this will probably happen, but I prefer the Reading West - Central - South East arrangement as it will lead to 2 perpetually marginal constituencies and one safe seat as opposed to 2 swing seats and a safe seat Surely the obvious scenario is reading west expands into Newbury and becomes safe Tory, Reading central is created, safe labour, taken by Matt Rodda, Reading east expands into Maidenhead and Wokingham, a swing seat, Wokingham expands into Bracknell, Bracknell into Windsor, and Windsor into a bit of east Slough and Surrey. Speaking of which, is it quite likely that May and Redwood would retire at the next GE? They're not exactly at immediate risk, though the LDs did make some inroads last year, especially against Redwood, though with the LDs being invisible in the polls and without a 'progressive alliance' it seems highly unlikely there would be any changes, just further reductions in majorities if anything? To bring it back on topic - thank you @johnyorks for the explanation! Didn't know whips had to keep a low profile publicly as it seems. So probably also why I hadn't heard of nor seen Nick Brown who appears to have been around for a while on the other side. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Dec 28, 2020 3:49:45 GMT
I agree that this will probably happen, but I prefer the Reading West - Central - South East arrangement as it will lead to 2 perpetually marginal constituencies and one safe seat as opposed to 2 swing seats and a safe seat.Sorry to appear naive, how are the two scenarios different? Are swing seats not marginal? My definition of swing seats is a seat that follows the national trend and is relatively comfortable outside of a landslide. Reading Central and South East would be 2 or 3 ultramarginal where all parties standing would really have to fight for every vote. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Dec 28, 2020 4:03:05 GMT
I agree that this will probably happen, but I prefer the Reading West - Central - South East arrangement as it will lead to 2 perpetually marginal constituencies and one safe seat as opposed to 2 swing seats and a safe seat Surely the obvious scenario is reading west expands into Newbury and becomes safe Tory, Reading central is created, safe labour, taken by Matt Rodda, Reading east expands into Maidenhead and Wokingham, a swing seat, Wokingham expands into Bracknell, Bracknell into Windsor, and Windsor into a bit of east Slough and Surrey. Reading West yes, Reading Central would be a 2 way ultra marginal because my old home town Caversham is a heavily Remain area that could tactically vote LD in some areas. Plus the council estate areas like Whitley are slowly swinging against Labour to the Tories to some extent, because of new build expensive estates like Green Park Village and Kennet Island and the minority WWC elements swinging in line with national demographic shifts, which takes a few thousand off the Labour total, so it would be a closeish marginal. Reading East would then become Reading South East and it would be defo ultramarginal because of the heavily Labour voting Reading Borough wards, the strongly LD parts of Earley, Woodley and Lower Earley and the Conservative villages on the periphery - Reading Central would be a lot safer but still marginal. Wokingham might not need to expand with all that housing growth in Spencers Wood/ Arbrofield,south of the M4. Bracknell is too big, so will need to shed some to Maidenhead to shore up the loss to Reading South East. Slough sheds Langley to Windsor. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2020 4:36:10 GMT
The combined Labour majority in the two Reading seats was 1,807 in 2019. Removing the non-Reading parts of both would give a Labour majority of 5-6000 max in Reading itself. If you squeeze three seats into Reading, two of them will be safe Tory because there simply aren't the numbers there for anything else
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 28, 2020 9:39:24 GMT
The combined Labour majority in the two Reading seats was 1,807 in 2019. Removing the non-Reading parts of both would give a Labour majority of 5-6000 max in Reading itself. If you squeeze three seats into Reading, two of them will be safe Tory because there simply aren't the numbers there for anything else Put another way, a constituency comprised entirely of Reading wards would take 11 of the current 16 wards leaving only 5 to be distributed between the other two seats (and on the Western (Tilehurst) side, these are relatively weak for Labour anyway.) In as much as a 'Reading East' comprised of only a couple of Reading wards (Church and Whitley or Church and Abbey) and dominated by Woodley and Earley might be other than safely Conservative, it would be because of a potential Lib Dem threat - Labour would have no chance. |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Dec 28, 2020 9:57:32 GMT
AdminSTB. Perhaps this long discussion about Reading could be moved somewhere else, eg boundary changes.
|
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Dec 28, 2020 19:03:33 GMT
The combined Labour majority in the two Reading seats was 1,807 in 2019. Removing the non-Reading parts of both would give a Labour majority of 5-6000 max in Reading itself. If you squeeze three seats into Reading, two of them will be safe Tory because there simply aren't the numbers there for anything else Put another way, a constituency comprised entirely of Reading wards would take 11 of the current 16 wards leaving only 5 to be distributed between the other two seats (and on the Western (Tilehurst) side, these are relatively weak for Labour anyway.) In as much as a 'Reading East' comprised of only a couple of Reading wards (Church and Whitley or Church and Abbey) and dominated by Woodley and Earley might be other than safely Conservative, it would be because of a potential Lib Dem threat - Labour would have no chance. Well, that proposed Reading South East seat would take in wards like Shinfield North, Maiden Erleigh and Bulmershe and Whitegates plus the few Reading wards, so I wouldn't count Labour out totally here, but the Liberals would have a much better chance as they are very strong in Winnersh, Woodley and both parts of Earley. Remember the Reading wards are much bigger than Wokingham wards. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Dec 28, 2020 19:12:07 GMT
The combined Labour majority in the two Reading seats was 1,807 in 2019. Removing the non-Reading parts of both would give a Labour majority of 5-6000 max in Reading itself. If you squeeze three seats into Reading, two of them will be safe Tory because there simply aren't the numbers there for anything else Impossible to have 2 seats based on Reading wards entirely. The electorate of the borough is too small and, even if you minimised the number of WB and Wokingham wards in the 2 Reading seats, that resultant Reading West seat would be not necessarily safe Labour - Norcot,Tilehurst and Kentwood wards are quite strongly Tory at the general election currently. You'd also create a Reading Outer type seat, which would be safe Tory for eternity, no chance of any Liberal or Labour or Green winning a seat with the West Berks wards currently in Reading West. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 29, 2020 10:13:33 GMT
I will respond to all this in detail when it has been moved to a more appropriate thread
|
|
