The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,304
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 1, 2024 9:14:17 GMT
A remarkably close Senate race too… I don’t know much about Dan Osborn, but Democrats must be ok with giving him a free run… I know Wiki isn’t the most reliable source but it’s usually pretty accurate for American politicians. Seems he’s ex-Navy and a President of their equivalent of a trade union. I can’t find why he left the Democratic Party but it seems they left the field clear expecting him to run with their endorsement, an idea he ruled out the day after the primary. nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/05/15/dan-osborn-spurns-democrats-other-parties-whose-help-he-sought-in-senate-race/Given that, maybe a bit surprising the Dems aren't running at least a token candidate.
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Post by timmullen on Sept 1, 2024 9:37:35 GMT
Given that, maybe a bit surprising the Dems aren't running at least a token candidate. It reads like they’d not nominated on the basis he would at worst run as an Independent endorsed by them but by the time he backed away from that it was too late; Wiki says they considered running a write in candidate but it didn’t happen.
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 1, 2024 10:04:34 GMT
Given that, maybe a bit surprising the Dems aren't running at least a token candidate. Well - it's a Republican area, but Osborn is certainly not a conservative Republican. He can win, but Democrats really can't - I'd have thought that Walz is quite similar.
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Post by sanders on Sept 2, 2024 13:09:37 GMT
The polling in North Carolina has been very good. I'm sticking with Tilt Democrat at the least - the cities and suburbs are growing and Black turnout should increase with Kamala Harris as the nominee. Republican might improve in the rural areas and flip Anson County, but it won't make up for continued haemorrhaging around Charlotte, Raleigh and Wilmijgton. Texas might not flip, but North Carolina is a decent possibility.
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Post by Clark on Sept 2, 2024 14:59:10 GMT
We should do an Almanac for the US states too - showing voting behaviour of the areas that make up the state - or perhaps this has been done before...
If so, I'd like to be pointed in that direction as my knowledge of this subject in America is quite limited. Thanks.
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Post by sanders on Sept 2, 2024 15:13:41 GMT
I fully endorse what has been said in the post above this one.
Another interesting map here is the projected 2032 Electoral College reapportionment.
Idaho's growing quickly - Boise (Ada County)?
Of course you have to ask, why are these sun belt states gaining Electoral Votes, and why is the frost belt, or the rust belt, or whatever you call it, losing them? In the case of Illinois, slated to drop to 17 EVs, in line with what Georgia and North Carolina are getting towards, much of the population shift is African Americans moving from Cook County, Illinois (Chicago) to the likes of Calyton, DeKalb, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, and Henry counties which together comprise the Atlanta metropolitan area which has been hurtling left for quite some time now (Obama almost flipped Henry County in 2012, and it actually did shift over to the Democratic side in 2014, and hasn't really looked back to be quite honest - its burgeoning Black vote is an impassable barrier for the GOP there nowadays it seems. You've also got Arizona which shows signs of shifting left again this year, after solid Democratic performances in the 2022 midterms, albeit against flawed Republican nominees like Kari Lake (running for Senate in November), and Blake Masters.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 3, 2024 9:25:19 GMT
Also, on a non-political level, what's going on in Idaho on those pop growth figures!?!
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Post by mrpastelito on Sept 3, 2024 9:32:12 GMT
Also, on a non-political level, what's going on in Idaho on those pop growth figures!?! Washington/Oregon flight.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 3, 2024 9:39:59 GMT
..but why to Idaho??
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Post by timmullen on Sept 3, 2024 9:45:50 GMT
Also, on a non-political level, what's going on in Idaho on those pop growth figures!?! According to the Idaho Department of Labor 18% of the growth is international (immigration mainly from the Congo Basin, 22% is “natural growth” which is defined as births outstripping deaths. There may be some correlation between domestic population growth and Idaho University being one of the fastest growing universities in the country. (I can’t find the report now but I’m sure I read somewhere that it’s behind only Utah and California for Mormon population and is attracting followers because of its proximity to Canada where apparently they’ve considerably stepped up their missionary work).
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Post by sanders on Sept 3, 2024 10:10:18 GMT
I think Democrats win Ada County. That's where Boise, Idaho is located. Lots of California number plates there. Idaho likely gets another House seat. One day, Republicans probably 'pack' Boise. Salt Lake City, Utah feels similar. Now ID and UT aren't competitive. I believe Utah will be one day. It's a very educated, suburbanised state. New York will lose multiple EVs. I think it's headed for 25. That probably sees Ocasio-Cortez's seat axed. timmullen you are right about Mormons. Evan McMullen did well in Idaho. He took 6% in the state.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 3, 2024 11:06:35 GMT
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Post by sanders on Sept 3, 2024 18:09:56 GMT
In many ways, Obama's an anomaly. His Midwest results were utterly insane. Wisconsin was tilt Democrat twice beforehand. Tilt also in 2016 and 2020. Trump won it in 2016, obviously. The most Dem rust belt state. At least, by voting history only. It'll come down to Dane County. Also, Kamala Harris's WOW counties performance. Ozaukee County could well flip, actually. The liberal judge won Waukesha city. That was in the 2023 election. I have Wisconsin as Lean Harris. Biden also held up well there. The polls have been good recently.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 3, 2024 18:39:50 GMT
Easier access back to where they came from. There was a previous wave from California (although the term Californication actually came from Colorado).
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Post by sanders on Sept 3, 2024 18:47:14 GMT
Another reason Arizona isn't flipping, IMO. Trump truly alienated the McCain family. The problem - McCains are Arizona royalty. John McCain was their Senator 1987-2018. This, plus Mesa's Mayor backing Harris. Mesa was stubbornly Trump in 2020. Republicans can't win Arizona without it.
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Sept 3, 2024 19:01:20 GMT
Another reason Arizona isn't flipping, IMO. Trump truly alienated the McCain family. The problem - McCains are Arizona royalty. John McCain was their Senator 1987-2018. This, plus Mesa's Mayor backing Harris. Mesa was stubbornly Trump in 2020. Republicans can't win Arizona without it. Puddle deep analysis
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Post by therealriga on Sept 3, 2024 19:23:04 GMT
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Post by sanders on Sept 3, 2024 19:31:25 GMT
Another reason Arizona isn't flipping, IMO. Trump truly alienated the McCain family. The problem - McCains are Arizona royalty. John McCain was their Senator 1987-2018. This, plus Mesa's Mayor backing Harris. Mesa was stubbornly Trump in 2020. Republicans can't win Arizona without it. Puddle deep analysis For now, you may be right. Still, if we look back recently. Trumpian candidates do not win Arizona. In 2022, Finchem and Lake - they both lost, along with Masters. Hamadeh lost the Attorney-General election. Fact is, Trump ain't Arizona's bag. That, plus the whole election audit. The audit only extended Biden's lead. Trump isn't doing enough in AZ. The border issue won't save him. Partly because Harris was tough there. Biden wasn't exactly pro illegal immigrant...
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 3, 2024 19:53:45 GMT
If memory serves the Arizona GOP was getting quite nutty long before Donald Trump came down the escalator. John McCain was a useful figurehead who made them look a lot more mainstream than they actually were. Paul Gosar was first elected in 2010, and there was also the performative nastiness of Sheriff Joe Arpaio.
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Post by sanders on Sept 4, 2024 9:13:10 GMT
Trump's slashing New Hampshire ad spending. He wasn't expected to win NH. The GOP likely lose the governorship. They have Kelly Ayotte (ex-Senator) running. Republicans won a trifecta in 2020. That seems exceedingly unlikely this time.
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